Category: Men’s Hockey

Weekend Preview: UND at Minnesota-Duluth

North Dakota has lost just three times in the past 15 games (11-3-1), and, according to Jim Dahl’s work, could find themselves in the top ten of the Pairwise rankings with a sweep this weekend. UND would also likely rise a bit in the Pairwise with a split.

Minnesota-Duluth has shown some cracks in the armor recently. The Bulldogs have gone just 3-3-1 in the past seven after rattling off a 17-game unbeaten streak (14-0-3). Losses to Michigan Tech and Alaska-Anchorage in consecutive weekends have some in Duluth wondering if UMD can repeat as NCAA champions.

At the end of last season (2010-11), many expected these two squads to go to battle for the national title. Duluth held up their end of the bargain, dispatching Notre Dame in their semifinal. UND fell short, however, falling to Michigan 2-0 in heartbreaking fashion.

North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth are two of eight schools scheduled to begin play in the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference beginning in 2013-14.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (12th season at UMD, 210-206-56, .504)
Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Rankings: #3/#3
This Season: 18-6-4 overall, 12-5-3 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 26-10-6 overall (NCAA National Champions), 15-8-5 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.46 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.7% (26 of 139)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (100 of 128)

Key Players: Senior F Jack Connolly (15-27-42), Sophomore F J.T. Brown (16-21-37), Senior F Travis Oleksuk (16-21-37), Senior D Brady Lamb (5-14-19), Senior D Scott Kishel (3-14-17), Senior G Kenny Reiter (17-5-4, 2.30 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 202-103-29, .648)
Pairwise Ranking: t-15th
National Rankings: #16/#15
This Season: 15-10-2 overall, 11-9-0 WCHA (t-5th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.04 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.78 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.4% (27 of 126)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (93 of 111)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31) Junior F Corban Knight (8-18-26), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (19-12-31), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-10-15), Senior D Ben Blood (2-11-13), Junior G Aaron Dell (11-8-2, 2.81 GAA, .892 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 30, 2010 (Duluth, MN). North Dakota scored three 2nd period goals in a span of 74 seconds to spoil the opening of Amsoil Arena for the homestanding Bulldogs. The U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame Game featured #3 UND against #2 Duluth, and the visiting squad from Grand Forks blanked UMD 5-0. Arena officials had to sound the goal horn after the game to let fans know how it would sound.

Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-74-8 (.639), including a 54-38-5 (.582) record in games played in Duluth.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 6-4-0 (.600) in the last ten games between the teams. UND has outscored Duluth 30-19 in the past ten contests.

Game News and Notes

UND teammates Danny Kristo and Ben Blood are among 77 players on the fan ballot for college hockey’s Hobey Baker Award. Head coaches Dave Hakstol and Scott Sandelin each have notched more than 200 career victories. UMD’s recent skid came after a string of eight straight road games. Both North Dakota goalies (Aaron Dell and Brad Eidsness) have sub-1.90 goals-against averages in games against Duluth.

The Prediction

North Dakota is finding ways to get points on the road every weekend, but Duluth is looking to flip the scoreboard from last season’s 5-0 embarrassment. It’s possible that UND will notch three points this weekend by tying one up late, but I’ll go with a split. UMD 3-2, UND 4-2.

UND facing #5 UMD has opportunity to climb in the PWR

UND has the potential to make a big move in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) if the Sioux can upset the struggling Bulldogs.

With tie-breakers, UND is currently #15 in the PWR. (Current PWR)

A sweep would most likely put UND in the 8-9 range (about 61% likelihood), with 7-10 probable (about 91%).

Even with a split, UND stands a fair chance of climbing a little. UND would climb to 12 or better in about 17% of scenarios, 13-14 in about 48%, stay at 15 in about 21%, and fall to 16 or lower in about 11%.

Looking ahead to the end of the regular season

UND’s regular season outlook improved slightly over its weekend off. It’s starting to look possible to lose three more before conference tournament time and still be well situated for making the NCAA tournament.

What to watch this weekend (other than UND)

Minnesota defeating Denver would be a big help to UND. UND could easily take the comparison with Denver by flipping both TUC and COP.

Alabama-Huntsville over Miami also has a big effect on UND’s ranking. Presumably this is a defensive play, preventing Miami from the taking the lead in RPI and the comparison, should UND falter this weekend.

There are a number of lesser series that seem to have RPI implications that could help UND this week:

  • Bowling Green over Northern Michigan
  • Michigan over Michigan State (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Alaska-Anchorage over Mankato (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Alaska over LSSU (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Western Michigan over Ohio State (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Ferris St over Notre Dame (only helpful if they sweep)

The only surprise in that list is AA over Mankato, since neither is nor is threatening to become a TUC. I think it’s an RPI play, AA is an opponent of UND’s while Mankato isn’t, yet. If that’s what’s happening, this is one of those outcomes that’s helpful for a week, but doesn’t matter in the long run.

Resources

UND’s PWR not likely to move much in bye week

Bye weeks this time of year give us a great window into how much PWR movement is external to our team’s own performance. While staying put at #16 is actually the single most likely outcome, anything from #14 to #17 is reasonably likely (#10 to #21 are mathematically possible).

PWR Likelihood
10 0.001%
11 0.063%
12 0.654%
13 3.459%
14 11.078%
15 23.734%
16 33.407%
17 19.939%
18 6.276%
19 1.305%
20 0.084%
21 0.000%

The games/series that would benefit idle UND the most are:

  • Michigan sweep over Miami
  • Ohio St winning at least one over Michigan St
  • Ferris St sweep over Northern Michigan
  • Alaska winning at least one over Western Michigan
  • CC sweep over Denver

End of season outlook

The story is unchanged from last week, UND can lose 2 games and still finish the regular season with a likely at-large tournament bid (PWR higher than 13). With a sweep last weekend, they’ve moved from needing 8 of 10 to needing 6 of 8.

Most important series for UND

bigchief asked last week which remaining series is most important for UND. They’re all pretty close, but here are the average relative differences in rankings for UND based on its performance in each series:

Matchup Average increase
in PWR from
1 win		 Average increase
in PWR from
2 wins
UND over Denver 3.67 7.67
UND over UMD 3.70 7.49
UND over MTech 3.55 6.81
UND over Mankato 3.07 6.17

For example, if UND sweeps Denver it finishes an average of 7.67 PWR ranks higher than if it gets swept by Denver.

Checking up on last week’s prediction

Last week I said that if UND swept, #15-18 were most likely. As you can see on the chart, the single most likely ranking was #16 at about 22%, which is exactly where UND landed.

Similarly, UW showed a strong peak at #27, about a 61% chance, if UND swept. The Badgers currently sit at #27.

Mass. Lowell winning two of three last week prevented us from finding out if they were really on as precarious a cliff as I predicted, but they did land firmly in the predicted range for winning two. A split between Miami and Northern Michigan also prevented the big movement that seemed possible for both with a sweep in either direction.

Following Northern Michigan and Mass.-Lowell

These two continue to generate buzz, so here’s a longer term (end of regular season) outlook for each.

With 8 regular season games remaining, Northern Michigan is well-positioned, but needs to keep producing. A 1-seed isn’t out of reach, but would require a good run.

With 10 regular season games remaining, Mass.-Lowell is in the driver’s seat. Only a stunning loss of form, losing over half their remaining games, would likely drop them into the danger zone of not making the tournament. Winning 7 would position them well for a 1 seed.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Badgers played in the national title game two seasons ago but missed the NCAA tournament last year. UW also fell to 7th in the WCHA after finishing in second place in 2009-10. For Mike Eaves’ squad, the single biggest problem has been early departures. The Badgers have had seven players (forwards Derek Stepan, Jordy Murray, and Craig Smith; and defensemen Cody Goloubef, Brendan Smith, Ryan McDonagh, and Jake Gardiner) give up college eligibility over the last two years.

North Dakota was hit harder than normal during the offseason as well. Sioux forwards Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall left school early to play professional hockey, and their departures, coupled with a graduated class of seven high end players, left holes up and down the UND lineup. Injuries, particularly up front, have forced the Green and White to play without a full lineup for much of January.

Both of these schools have played well in their last ten games: Wisconsin has gone 7-2-1, while North Dakota is 6-3-1 over that same span. The teams boast similar top lines, with UND having a slight edge in combined power play and penalty kill proficiency.

This series comes down to venue, and which team has home ice. The Badgers have won only won game on the road this season (at MSU-Mankato), while North Dakota is 9-4-2 at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

Down the stretch, both teams will struggle to gain home ice for the first round of the playoffs. After this weekend, UW hosts St. Cloud and Denver and travels to Bemidji and Minnesota. UND will host Michigan Tech and Mankato and travel to Duluth and Denver to close out the regular season. It is becoming more and more apparent that North Dakota will have to win at least seven of its last ten WCHA contests to be in position for an NCAA tournament berth in March.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (10th season at UW, 204-148-44, .571)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 12-10-2 overall, 7-9-2 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 21-16-4 overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (25 of 116)
Penalty Kill: 76.3% (74 of 97)

Key Players: Sophomore F Mark Zengerle (10-28-38), Sophomore F Tyler Barnes (8-12-20), Freshman F Joseph LaBate (5-13-18), Junior D Justin Schultz (12-25-37), Sophomore D Frankie Simonelli (3-9-12), Freshman G Joel Rumpel (9-5-2, 2.54 GAA, .920 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 200-103-29, .646)
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
National Rankings: #18/NR
This Season: 13-10-2 overall, 9-9-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.92 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.80 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.5% (24 of 117)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (87 of 104)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (12-15-27) Junior F Corban Knight (8-16-24), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (17-10-27), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-8-13), Senior D Ben Blood (2-9-11), Junior G Aaron Dell (10-8-2, 2.80 GAA, .895 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 22, 2011 (Madison, WI). North Dakota outshot the Badgers 42-15 but couldn’t solve goaltender Joel Rumpel often enough, falling 5-4 to homestanding Wisconsin. UW won the opener, 5-3.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 12, 2009. Wisconsin scored three power play goals and downed North Dakota 4-3 to take three points on the weekend. The teams battled to a 3-3 draw on Friday night. UND had almost 90 seconds of 5 on 3 power play time in the first period and peppered netminder Scott Gudmandson with eight shots on goal but couldn’t get one to go.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had the better of it in recent history, going 6-3-1 (.650) over the last ten tilts.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-62-11 (.575), and holds a 36-30-8 (.541) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Both head coaches in this weekend’s series notched their 200th career win this season. Wisconsin has two players (forward Mark Zengerle and defenseman Justin Schultz) in the top five of the national scoring race. Over the last twelve games, UND netminders Aaron Dell and Brad Eidsness have combined for an 8-3-1 record, a goals-against average of 2.23, and a save percentage of .917.

The Prediction

This feels like the weekend where UND stops splitting and starts sweeping. It won’t be easy, but North Dakota’s penalty kill will be big both nights. UND 4-2, 4-3.

UND’s road to the NCAA tournament is getting steeper

UND’s lackluster performance since A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities has made the road to the NCAA tournament a little bit steeper.

That article predicted that UND could lose only 4 more of its remaining 15 regular season games to end the regular season comfortably at #13 or better in PWR. UND having gone 3-2 over the first 5 of those games, the new forecast shouldn’t be surprising.

It looks like UND needs 8 wins in the remaining 10 games to stand a good shot of finishing in the top 13. Also remember that this prediction is for the end of the regular season, UND could easily finish in the mid teens and still climb to the high teens during the WCHA tournament.

UND this week

The current PWR table shows UND in sole possession of 19th. The opportunities for movement this week are pretty big:

  • A sweep leads to the most indeterminate outcome — UND most likely (75% chance) would land in the 15-18 range, though a bit higher or lower are distinctly possible.
  • A split would likely leave UND in the 19-20 range.
  • Getting swept would most likely land UND in the 22-25 range.

It’s also a big week for UND’s opponent, also fighting for a playoff spot, the Wisconsin Badgers. They’re looking forward to a likely PWR of anywhere from #18 to #28, depending on their performance this weekend.

On the cliff’s edge this week — Mass.-Lowell

Minnesota’s big drop last week was exactly as forecast, which got me looking for this week’s “Minnesota”. The team sitting on the edge of a cliff this week is definitely Mass.-Lowell. Currently #3 in the PWR, they would need to win all three games in the coming week to be likely to finish #2 or #3 (84% chance). Get swept? #14-15 are most likely, with #16 or #17 a real possibility.

Series of the week — Northern Michigan vs. Miami

There’s really only other series this week that could lead to even more PWR movement than the UND/UW series — Northern Michigan (#10) vs. Miami (#15). Northern Michigan’s likely outcomes range from #3 to #17, while Miami’s range from #6-#19.

A few technical notes

The PWR rankings on USCHO have been different from all other source (CHN, TBRW, SiouxSports) today. That’s because USCHO currently isn’t dropping “harmful wins” from its RPI calculation. I haven’t heard of any such change in the calculation, so will assume that USCHO just made a mistake and that the calculations here are right.

This week’s projections are as of Monday Jan. 30, including any games on Sunday but not on Monday. It’s getting tricky to pick an “as of” date when there are college hockey games most days of the week in the coming two weeks.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND at St. Cloud State

There are two trends at odds this weekend when North Dakota travels to St. Cloud to face the Huskies:

Trend #1: In the past eleven games this season, North Dakota is 8-2-1, while St. Cloud State is just 3-6-2.

Trend #2: Since 1998, UND is winless on Friday nights at SCSU (0-7-4) but has come back strong on Saturday nights (9-1-1).

Another issue at play in this critical WCHA series is that both teams are playing shorthanded.

For St. Cloud, sophomore forwards Cam Reid and Mitch MacMillan have left the team for better opportunities, while senior forward Drew LeBlanc (2-10-12 in 10 games) and junior goaltender Mike Lee (2-2-1, 3.34 GAA, .896 SV%) suffered injuries. Mike Lee is close to returning and could see action this weekend.

On the North Dakota side, it’s even worse. Before the season started, the predicted 2nd and 3rd line forwards were J.T.Miller, Colten St. Clair, Rocco Grimaldi, Derek Rodwell, Michael Parks, and Brendan O’Donnell. None of those six forwards will play in these games.

Miller backed out of his commitment to UND, and St. Clair has not yet cleared the NCAA Eligibility Center. Grimaldi and Rodwell are in line for season-ending surgeries, while Parks and O’Donnell are nursing injuries and unable to suit up this weekend.

Put another way: UND is competing this weekend with a top line of Danny Kristo/Corban Knight/Brock Nelson and a whole slew of fourth line forwards. UND is so thin up front that it is possible (though unlikely) that third-string goaltender Tate Maris could suit up and see action as a forward on the fourth line.

On the blue line, North Dakota’s Derek Forbort sustained a lower body injury while playing for the United States at the World Junior tournament and has yet to return to the lineup.

The teams split an October series in Grand Forks, so the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is on the line this weekend in St. Cloud.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 7th season at SCSU, 129-103-33, .549)
Pairwise Ranking: 30th (tie)
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 9-11-4 overall, 6-7-3 WCHA (8th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13 4 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.04 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (19 of 92)
Penalty Kill: 75.8% (72 of 95))

Key Players: Senior F Jared Festler (10-8-18), Junior F Ben Hanowski (12-13-25), Senior F Travis Novak (7-10-17), Freshman D Jarrod Rabey (2-5-7), Sophomore D Nick Jensen (5-14-19), Freshman G Ryan Faragher (7-9-3, 2.82 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 199-102-29, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: 18th (tie)
National Rankings: #17/#16
This Season: 12-9-2 overall, 8-8-0 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (24 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 82.5% (80 of 97)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (12-13-25) Junior F Corban Knight (6-15-21), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (16-9-25), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-8-13), Senior D Ben Blood (2-9-11), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.48 GAA, .915 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 29, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). The Huskies blanked North Dakota 4-0 in Friday’s opener, but UND exacted revenge on Saturday. North Dakota forwards Corban Knight and Brock Nelson potted second period goals just 89 seconds apart to lead the Green and White to a 3-1 home victory.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: February 19, 2011. One night after Matt Frattin’s late goal salvaged a tie and earned North Dakota the Challenge Cup, UND’s Brett Hextall broke a 2-2 tie early in the third and the Fighting Sioux held on to defeat the homestanding Huskies, 3-2. The victory was the first of eleven wins in a row for North Dakota.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 57-30-11 (.638), with a slight edge of 22-16-6 (.568) in games played at the National Hockey Center in St. Cloud. North Dakota is 6-3-1 (.750) in the last ten contests between the schools. This weekend will mark the 99th and 100th meetings between the two programs.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol is 19-8-6 (.667) in his career against St. Cloud State. Hakstol could join UND’s 200 Victory Club with a win this weekend, joining two others (John “Gino” Gasparini and Dean Blais) as the only coaches to reach that milestone. SCSU freshman goalie Ryan Faragher has made 18 consecutive starts for the Huskies, a run that started with his 4-0 shutout victory in Grand Forks on October 28th. St. Cloud assistant coach Steve Johnson was a four year letterwinner at UND, collecting 191 points in 153 games. He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award and a first-team All-American as a senior.

The Prediction

The Friday/Saturday trend will continue, with North Dakota falling just short on Friday night before pulling away in Saturday’s rematch. SCSU 4-3, UND 4-2.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com and the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

Last season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each season. For a complete look at how the the WCHA schedule works, click here.

And it’s safe to say that as members of the new eight-team National Collegiate Hockey Conference (which begins play in 2013-2014), North Dakota and St. Cloud State will continue to play four regular season games each year.

Over the past eight seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. The next season (2009-10), both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again.

Last year, North Dakota swept the early December series in Grand Forks and earned a win and a tie at St. Cloud in February, outscoring the Huskies by a combined 15-8.

If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup four times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice. No school has ever swept the four game season series.

In the first two games of this season’s series, the teams split two games at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks. The Huskies blanked UND in the opener, 4-0, and North Dakota took the rematch by a final of 3-1. The win kept UND from starting the WCHA season with four consecutive losses for the first time in school history.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, January 21st from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Please check back for a complete preview of this weekend’s series. We hope to see you at Saturday’s fan social. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota

Much has been made of the fact that these two teams have been headed in opposite directions since Minnesota swept North Dakota at Mariucci Arena in November (2-0, 3-2). But is that really the case? Let’s take a look inside some of the numbers and find out…

Coming into the November series, Minnesota’s numbers were eye-popping. Consider these:

Team Offense: 5.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.75 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 35.9% (14 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (35 of 40)

And since those two games:

Team Offense: 3.46 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.1% (12 of 57)
Penalty Kill: 78.0% (46 of 59)

For North Dakota, their early numbers spoke directly to their 3-4-1 record:

Team Offense: 2.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.5% (8 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (25 of 32)

And since being swept at the hands of the Gophers:

Team Offense: 3.73 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.27 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 26.4% (14 of 53)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (36 of 44)

UND has put together a record of 8-2-1 since their last meeting with Minnesota, while the Gophers are just 6-6-1.

The question this weekend will be: can the intensity and importance of this series be enough for North Dakota to overcome injuries and battle Minnesota’s depth? Goaltending can be the great equalizer, but we haven’t seen Aaron Dell or Brad Eidsness steal a game for UND yet this year.

For Minnesota, the early season scoring depth has cooled off. Second-line center Erik Haula has just three goals in his last 16 games after collected seven goals and 10 assists in his first seven games.

North Dakota is 19-12-3 (.603) all time when playing on Friday the 13th, including a 7-1-2 record in its last ten games on that date. The series opener is, of course, on Friday the 13th.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (13th season at Minnesota, 305-166-54, .632)
Pairwise Ranking: 8th
National Rankings: #5/#5
This Season: 15-7-1 overall, 11-3-0 WCHA (t-1st)
Last Season: 16-14-6 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 13-10-5 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 4.04 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.13 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.5% (27 of 110)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (92 of 111)

Key Players: Sophomore F Erik Haula (10-17-27), Freshman F Kyle Rau (12-10-22), Sophomore F Nick Bjugstad (17-11-28), Sophomore D Nate Schmidt (1-23-24), Sophomore D Mark Alt (4-10-14), Senior G Kent Patterson (15-7-1, 2.13 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 198-101-29, .648)
Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Rankings: #17/#18
This Season: 11-8-2 overall, 7-7-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.76 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (23 of 104)
Penalty Kill: 82.2% (74 of 90)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (11-13-24) Sophomore F Brock Nelson (15-9-24), Freshman F Mark MacMillan (4-5-9), Senior D Ben Blood (2-8-10), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-8-13), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: November 5, 2011 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota took a 2-1 lead into the third period against the Gophers but it didn’t hold up. Minnesota’s Nick Larson tied the game with six minutes to play and Kyle Rau potted the game winner with under a minute to go. Minnesota took the opener, 2-0.

Last meeting in Grand Forks (January 15, 2011). UND spotted Minnesota an early goal and then responded with four straight of their own to earn a 4-1 victory and a split of the weekend series. The Golden Gophers took a 3-2 decision in Friday’s opener.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 135-128-14 (.513), although North Dakota has a 69-54-8 (.557) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Recent history: Minnesota has had the better of it lately, sporting a record of 5-3-2 (.600) in the last ten games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 15-11-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. With a sweep this weekend, Hakstol will join the 200 win club (John “Gino” Gasparini and Dean Blais are the only other UND coaches to reach that plateau). This weekend is a White Out Weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena, with fans encouraged to wear white to both games. In an effort to alleviate parking and security concerns this weekend, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m. each night. Downtown Horns will be playing in the Ralph Engelstad Arena concourse both nights. UND is 8-2-1 when the Horns play at the Ralph.

The Prediction

I’d love to give more than two points to North Dakota, but I can’t see it happening here. UND will pull out a victory on Friday before Minnesota’s depth shines through in the rematch. UND 4-2, MN 4-1.

A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities

UND fans accustomed to slow starts might be tempted to brush off this season’s slow start as inconsequential, but should they?

January is the typical time to start paying attention to the PairWise Rankings (PWR) that mimic that NCAA’s tournament selection criteria. UND’s current PWR ranking is #19, which would not be sufficient to make the NCAA tournament, but the season isn’t over, so how much does that matter?

Some humorously early bracketology discussions in recent years led me to write an essay a couple years ago, When to start looking at PWR. In short, PWR is so volatile as to be almost meaningless before January; also, PWR doesn’t become a very good predictor of the end-of-season PWR (the only one that matters) until March. So, rather than write much more about today’s PWR ranking, I’ll spend the rest of this article focusing on where UND’s PWR could be in March.

UND’s 2011-12 PWR vs. past performances

UND’s current PWR ranking of 19 is the second worst for a Hakstol-era UND team at this time of year.

2008 – non-TUC (climbed to #5 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 15-2-3 run, fell to #8 after getting swept out of the WCHA tournament)
2006 – #18 (climbed to #10 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 12-2-4 run, to #7 with a win and a loss in the WCHA tournament)

Each of those teams made the NCAA tournament, but only after a phenomenal second half run.

Where will UND finish?

Mathematically, UND can still finish the regular season #1 overall even if they lose one more game.

The above graph is the distribution of rankings, given how many of its remaining games wins.  So, for example, the gray “Win 11” curve shows that UND is quite likely to have a PWR ranking of 10-13 at the end of the regular season if they win 11 of their remaining games.

Making the NCAA tournament is a distinct possibility. If you guess at a PWR ranking of 13 as the cutoff for making it at large (it depends how many lower-ranked teams get autobids, thus taking one of the 16 slots), winning 8 or 9 of the remaining 15 games could be sufficient with a decent WCHA tournament run.

Technical note on PWR (change in COP)

For students of PWR, you should note one change in the way PWR is calculated this year.

Rather than the common opponents (COP) criterion simply being a sum of each teams’ records vs all common opponents, it’s the average of each teams’ record vs each common opponent. That’s a subtle distinction, so I’ll try to illustrate it with a hypothetical example which highlights the reason they made this change.

Suppose these outcomes:

UND vs Sacred Heart: 5-0-0
UND vs Ohio State: 0-1-0

Minnesota vs Sacred Heart: 1-0-0
Minnesota vs Ohio State: 3-2-0

Old COP would be: UND 5-1-0 (.8333) / Minnesota (.6667)
New COP would be: UND .500 (average of 100% and 0%) / Minnesota .800 (average of 100% and 60%)

In short, the old formula rewarded UND for having more games against the easier opponent, despite having been winless vs the other common opponent. The new formula gives Minnesota the COP comparison for having winning records vs. both opponents.

I just stumbled on this, how is PWR being predicted?

I simulate the outcomes of the remaining games in the season a million or so times, using KRACH to predict the likelihood of each team winning in each iteration. That’s enough simulations to ensure that even the most unlikely possibilities occur at least once. For each simulated season I calculate what PWR would result from that set of outcomes. I then use the aggregate results of those simulations to assign a likelihood to a particular outcome, that is, if UND finishes #3 in PWR in 370,000 of 1,000,000 simulations, I say that UND has about a 37% chance of finishing #3.

Closing remarks

This is my first stab at firing up the PWR simulations and writing this sort of post this year. It does always seem to take me a little while to get back into the groove, so please point out any errors, questions, or points that need clarifying.

Though I started with an analysis of UND’s position, let me know if there’s anything else in particular that you’d like to see.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Harvard

This is the type of series that can make or break a season, particularly a season filled with ups and downs and NCAA tournament bubbles.

After some growing pains, North Dakota is hitting their stride, winning six of their last eight and losing the other two by a single goal (at Bemidji State, vs. Nebraska-Omaha). With a 2-1-1 mark in non-conference play and only a single game against Clarkson (in Winnipeg, Manitoba) on the schedule, these two games are critical for securing a spot in the national tournament.

For Harvard, it may be a bit too early to tell, as the Crimson have played just ten games (North Dakota has played 18). Is Harvard capable of sustaining their nation’s-best 32% power play? Can they correct a dreadful 68% penalty kill? And can a freshman goaltender continue to keep them in games?

As with most teams, Harvard’s special teams play will come back to the pack. The Crimson continue to get offensive contributions from their blueliners (their top-six defensemen have collected 36 points in 10 games, while UND’s top three pairs have notched only 33 points in 18 games).

North Dakota’s Derek Forbort (sophomore defenseman) will miss this weekend’s series (World Junior Championships), while two Sioux forwards – junior Corban Knight and senior Mario Lamoureux – may return to the lineup after missing time with undisclosed injuries. UND freshman forward Rocco Grimaldi will not return to game action this weekend.

Harvard Team Profile

Head Coach: Ted Donato (8th season at Harvard, 107-113-24, .488)
Pairwise Ranking: #25 (tie)
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 4-3-3 overall, 3-3-2 ECAC (t-4th)
Last Season: 12-21-1, 7-14-1 ECAC (10th)

Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.40 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 32.1% (17 of 53)
Penalty Kill: 68.6% (24 of 35)

Key Players: Senior F Alex Killorn (6-6-12), Junior F Alex Fallstrom (3-6-9), Junior F Marshall Everson (4-3-7), Junior D Danny Biega (3-10-13), Freshman D Patrick McNally (3-9-12), Freshman G Steve Michalek (4-2-2, 3.10 GAA, .898 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 196-101-28, .646)
Pairwise Ranking: #20 (tie)
National Rankings: #18/NR
This Season: 9-8-1 overall, 7-7-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.83 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.78 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (20 of 90)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (65 of 79)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (9-11-20) Junior F Corban Knight (6-15-21), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (14-8-22), Freshman D Nick Mattson (3-6-9), Senior D Ben Blood (2-7-9), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: December 6, 2008 (Cambridge, MA). The Fighting Sioux answered an early third period goal by the Crimson with two goals of their own in the final frame and held off homestanding Harvard to earn the road sweep. UND pounded Harvard 10-1 in Friday’s opener despite being outshot 40-37.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: December 30, 2005. The Green and White won a hard-fought 3-2 contest to avenge a 1-0 defeat one night earlier. Harvard’s shutout win in the opener was their only win over North Dakota in the last 60 years.

Most important meeting: The teams have met twice in the NCAA semifinals (1958 and 1987), with North Dakota winning both by a combined score of 14-3. Since UND won the national championship in 1987, I will go with March 26, 1987 (a 5-2 Sioux victory in Detroit, MI) as the most important game between the schools.

All time series: UND leads the all-time series with a record of 8-2-1 (.773) against Harvard.

Game News and Notes

Saturday’s game will mark just the second official game UND has ever played on New Year’s Eve. The only other contest was a 6-3 setback against the U.S. National team in 1955. North Dakota played an exhibition game (also a loss) against the St. Petersburg Red Army in 1993. Harvard senior defenseman Danny Biega is second nationally in points per game by a blueliner (1.40). Brad Eidsness is the only current Sioux player to have played against Harvard, winning both games in Cambridge and posting a 2.00 GAA and .947 save percentage in the road sweep.

The Prediction

One of these games will be close, and if history repeats it will be Saturday’s rematch. Aside from a win against Colgate, the Crimson have not fared well against better teams. UND will wear down Harvard over the course of the weekend and come out with two victories. UND 5-1, 3-2.