UND closes in on NCAA tournament berth

#6 UND has moved much closer to clinching a tournament berth. Winning at least 2 of the remaining 6 would have UND more likely than not in the top 13 in PWR going into the conference tournaments. Even if UND won only 0 or 1 of its remaining games, an at large berth would still be within reach with a good showing in the conference tournament.

Given the above, UND faces a somewhat predictable situation this week of being able to make a small gain with a sweep over Denver, stay pretty much the same with a split, or fall a bit more if swept.

The final weeks of the regular season

Only three teams can’t fall from being a TUC by the end of the regular season: #1 Quinnipiac, #2 Minnesota, and #3 Miami.

Quinnipiac (PWR Details) is particularly safe, even a catastrophe seems to only drop them 3 spots. Winning only 2 of their remaining 4 would leave them with only about a 10% chance of falling from the #1 spot. Their .7778 vs. TUCs is unassailable, and .5828 RPI is miles ahead of #2 Minnesota .5658. To put that RPI into perspective, if Minnesota swept its final 6 games their RPI would only rise to about .5738 (Minnesota RPI details).

#2 Minnesota and #3 Miami each also have good RPI leads over the teams chasing them, coming in at .5658 and .5529 respectively, with #4 New Hampshire at .5477.

However, #2 Minnesota and #3 Miami aren’t alone in vying for the #2 PWR ranking at the end of the regular season. A staggering 9 teams could claim that position: #2 Minnesota, #3 Miami, #4 New Hampshire, #5 Boston College, #6 North Dakota, #7 MSU-Mankato, #9 St. Cloud St, #11 Denver, and #14 Mass.-Lowell.

Interestingly, the list of teams that can finish top 4 isn’t much longer, add only #8 Western Michigan and #10 Niagara to the list.

The team with the most upside potential for the remaining regular season is #29 Providence, which can climb to #8. That’s mostly just because big upward moves are possible from that low a rank (#28 Colgate and #30 Colorado College could each rise to #14).

The team with the most downside potential for the remaining regular season is #13 Boston University (BU PWR details), which could fall to not being a TUC. #13 BU is only #20 in RPI, and is already losing most of its common opponents comparisons.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Small rankings moves likely for UND in bye week

Idle #6 North Dakota could make some small moves in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) this week, with anything between 5 and 8 being reasonably likely.

Key games for UND

Matchups that most affect UND’s PWR
Matchup Number
of wins
Effect on
UND’s PWR
Ohio State over Western Michigan (1 of 2) 1.13
Ohio State over Western Michigan (2 of 2) 1.05

The reason those games (and others) are important can be deduced by studying the PWR comparison details for UND.

UND’s downside potential

Western Michigan is clearly the bigggest threat this week, with UND currently winning the comparison on the back of a very narrow .5470 to .5454 RPI lead.

Niagara is similarly knocking on the door, losing the comparison to UND only on the basis of Niagara’s RPI of .5381.

Finally, Yale could take the comparison with UND by defeating both Union and Rensselaer, thus raising their TUC record to .5667 (vs. UND’s .5470).

UND’s upside potential

Though New Hampshire is winning the comparison to UND 3-0, two of those criteria would flip to UND if New Hampshire got swept. UND could take both RPI and TUC.

Other interesting teams this week

Smallest range of outcomes — #1 Quinnipiac (#1-#1). Sorry Gopher fans, not this week.

Of the teams that have a two comparison or less deficit with Quinnipiac [Quinnipiac PWR comparisons] (only North Dakota, MSU-Mankato, Niagara, Wisconsin, Providence, Holy Cross, and Robert Morris), none can hope to catch their RPI of .5885 any time soon.

Largest range of outcomes — #23 Rensselaer (#13-#32), #25 Colgate (#13-#32), and #20 Merrimack (#12-#31)

Looking at Rensselaer PWR comparisons, Colgate PWR comparisons, and Merrimack PWR comparisons, all have fairly middling RPIs in the .5100s and quite a few comparisons being decided by RPI. That creates a lot of opportunity for both upward and downward movement from that part of the comparison table.

Most upside potential — #31 Robert Morris (#16–non-TUC)

Robert Morris’s story is simple (Robert Morris PWR comparisons): The TUC criterion hasn’t come into play for them yet because they don’t have 10 games and a sweep this weekend (at least a win seems necessary to stay a TUC) would give them an impressive .700 record vs. TUCs. That would immediately flip a lot of the 1-1 comparisons, and some of the 0-2’s vs teams that Robert Morris can overtake on RPI.

Most downside potential — #14 Dartmouth (#9-#27), #18 Nebraska-Omaha (#17-#31)

Dartmouth is tricky; just looking at Dartmouth’s PWR comparisons, it’s not immediately obvious why #14 Dartmouth has so much more downside potential than #15 Alaska [Alaska PWR comparisons], as RPIs and TUCs are similar. Fortunately, the simulations keep track of which games have the biggest effects on each teams, and there’s a valuable clue there:

Matchups that most affect Dartmouth’s PWR
Matchup Number
of wins
Effect on
Dartmouth’s PWR
Dartmouth over Colgate   5.55
Dartmouth over Cornell   3.94
Brown over Rensselaer   1.56
Brown over Union   1.52
Miami over Notre Dame (2 of 2) 0.98
Lake Superior over Alaska (2 of 2) 0.84
Minnesota over Wisconsin (2 of 2) 0.80
Minnesota over Wisconsin (1 of 2) 0.61
Massachusetts over Mass.-Lowell (1 of 2) 0.58
Lake Superior over Alaska (1 of 2) 0.52
Robert Morris over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.51

The first thing that jumps out is how much Dartmouth wants Brown to win. It turns out that Brown is in danger of not being a TUC, and Dartmouth has 3 wins vs. Brown. Losing those wins would drop Dartmouth’s TUC record from .5333 to .4167. That gives Dartmouth significantly more downside potential with a couple losses than similarly ranked teams with similar RPIs.

Nebraska-Omaha [PWR comparisons], on the other hand, just has a miserable TUC of .3824. Alaska-Anchorage is a weak enough opponent that getting swept would push UNOs RPI from .5196 to about .5086. That would be enough on today’s RPI chart to drop UNO from #17 to #27 in RPI, certainly flipping a lot of comparisons given the poor TUC record. UNO seems to need a sweep not to fall.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND at Nebraska-Omaha

This weekend’s WCHA action features a pair of contests that will decide the race for the MacNaughton Cup. #1 ranked Minnesota (10-4-4 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #8 St. Cloud to face the Huskies (14-5-1 WCHA, 1st place) while #7 North Dakota (9-5-6 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #14 Nebraska-Omaha (12-6-2 WCHA, 2nd place) to play an indoor/outdoor series against Dean Blais and the Mavericks.

Dean Blais’ squad has a distinct North Dakota feel to it, with Steve Johnson beside him on the bench and two forwards named Archibald and Zombo on the ice. UND fans may remember their dads, Jim Archibald and Rick Zombo, who wore the green and white during Blais’ tenure in Grand Forks.

UND took three points last weekend in a home series against Wisconsin, due in large part to the goaltending of freshman Zane Gothberg (50 saves on 52 shots) and the combined efforts of the power play and penalty kill units. North Dakota killed all eight Wisconsin power plays on the weekend and scored three goals in twelve man-advantage situations.

Both schools are getting scoring contributions from the blueline, as UND and UNO are tied for third nationally with 68 points from defensemen. Junior D Andrej Sustr leads the way for the Mavs with 20 points, while sophomore Dillon Simpson has collected 16 points for North Dakota.

A large and vocal UND fan contingent is expected for this weekend in Omaha. Saturday’s game will be played outdoors at TD Ameritrade Park, the home of the College World Series.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (4th season at UNO, 71-60-16, .537)
Pairwise Ranking: 21st
National Ranking: #14
This Season: 16-10-2 overall, 12-6-2 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 14-18-6 overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.57 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.6% (19 of 97)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (97 of 117)

Key Players: Junior F Ryan Walters (16-24-40), Sophomore F Josh Archibald (15-12-27), Sophomore F Dominic Zombo (9-17-26), Junior D Andrej Sustr (7-13-20), Senior D Bryce Aneloski (4-11-15), Senior G John Faulkner (14-5-2, 2.72 GAA, .897 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 227-114-36, .650)
Pairwise Ranking: t-7th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 14-8-6 overall, 9-5-6 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.18 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (24 of 111)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (87 of 104)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-24-36), Senior F Danny Kristo (16-19-35), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (9-9-18), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-13-22), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (2-14-16), Freshman G Zane Gothberg (4-3-2. 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%)

Last meeting: December 10, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after the visiting Mavs claimed a dramatic 2-1 overtime victory, UND netminder Aaron Dell stopped all 26 shots he faced and junior forward Danny Kristo potted the only goal of the contest early in the third period. North Dakota held on for the 1-0 victory. Ryan Massa stopped 31 of 32 shots for the Mavericks.

Last meeting in Omaha: November 20, 2010. Just when it appeared that the two teams were headed to overtime in a scoreless tie, North Dakota’s Brad Malone kicked the puck out of the crease right onto the stick of UNO’s Alex Hudson, and the Maverick forward buried his chance with 0.3 seconds to play in regulation. The two teams played a completely different game in Friday’s opener, with North Dakota claiming a 6-5 victory.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met six times (and the series is tied at three games apiece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha’s John Faulkner is one victory away from tying Dan Ellis for the most career goaltending victories (53) for the Mavericks. North Dakota only has two current players who have scored a goal against Nebraska-Omaha (Danny Kristo and Carter Rowney). UNO’s Ryan Walter became the nation’s first 40 point scorer with his goal last Friday against Michigan Tech. Friday’s game will air live on NBC Sports Network, while Saturday’s outdoor contest will be featured on Midco Sports Network.

The Prediction

North Dakota’s momentum will carry into Friday’s opener, with the top line of Knight, Kristo, and Grimaldi leading the way. Saturday’s outdoor contest, equal parts sport and spectacle, will go to whichever team can handle the elements and the less-than-perfect ice surface. In the rematch, I give a slight edge to the Mavericks. UND 4-2, UNO 4-3.

PWR forecasts for February 11

#10 North Dakota is facing another typical (for it) week of a little bit of upside potential if they sweep, but a fair amount of downside potential if they get swept. (Current PairWise Rankings)

Special Beanpot note — the simulations already include the results of this week’s Beanpot games, but forecast only through next Monday NOT including the Beanpot.

UND’s upside potential comes primarily from two games:

  • If Canisius sweeps Niagara, UND could take the RPI criterion and win the comparion with Niagara
  • If Minnesota sweeps St Cloud, UND could take the RPI criterion and win the comparison with St Cloud

(UND’s pairwise comparisons detailed)

Other teams of interest this week

Note that “likely” outcomes are those with a greater than 1% chance of occurring.

Team with the narrowest spread of likely outcomes: #1 Quinnipiac (#1-#2)

Team with the largest spread of likely outcomes: #19 Union (#9-#28)

Team with the most upside potential: #21 Nebraska-Omaha (#8-#27)

Team with the most downside potential: #12 MSU-Mankato (#7-#25)

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Wisconsin

Despite better and more consistent play over the past two weekends, North Dakota is still struggling to find victories and finds itself in a precarious position for the NCAA tournament with Wisconsin coming to town.

Sound familiar? It’s the same story as last season. Almost exactly one year ago, UND managed no better than splits against Minnesota and St. Cloud State and needed wins against the Badgers. The Green and White swept Bucky out of the Ralph and went 12-3-1 the rest of the way, earning home ice for the playoffs, claiming the Broadmoor trophy, and making the NCAA West Regional final.

This season, Dave Hakstol’s club has struggled to find victories over the past couple of weekends, earning only a pair of ties and two losses against Minnesota and St. Cloud State. UW comes to town white-hot, with a 10-1-3 mark in the past 14 games, the same 14 games that freshman phenom Nic Kerdiles has been in the lineup.

The teams are tied for fourth in the WCHA race, but North Dakota’s picture nationally looks a little brighter than Wisconsin’s: UW is currently 23rd in the Pairwise rankings, while UND sits in 10th.

Mike Eave’s squad boasts a pair of netminders with sub-2.00 goals-against averages, and his team is allowing exactly two goals per game for the season. The struggle for Bucky has been scoring, particularly on the power play. If the two teams earn the same number of man-advantage opportunities, that situation would favor North Dakota.

For Dave Hakstol, freshman goaltender Zane Gothberg has worked his way into a rotation with Clarke Saunders. As a freshman for Alabama-Huntsville, Saunders faced the Badgers twice, and his line is not very impressive: 0-2-0, 6.73 GAA, .821 SV%. It is fair to say that the junior transfer has a different team in front of him this time around.

On the injury front, Wisconsin will be without the services of senior forward Derek Lee, who is still suffering from the effects of a concussion. Lee is second on the team in scoring with 19 points. North Dakota is healthy up and down the lineup, and appears to have more scoring depth than the Badgers.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (11th season at UW, 220-164-49, .565)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Ranking: #19
This Season: 11-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 17-18-2 overall, 11-15-2 WCHA (10th)

Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.4% (8 of 70)
Penalty Kill: 82.4% (70 of 85)

Key Players: Junior F Michael Mersch (15-6-21), Junior F Mark Zengerle (4-9-13), Freshman F Nic Kerdiles (3-7-10 in 14 games), Sophomore D Jake McCabe (2-8-10), Senior D John Ramage (4-3-7), Sophomore G Joel Rumpel (6-6-3, 1.85 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-114-35, .649)
Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 13-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (21 of 99)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (79 of 96)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-23-35), Senior F Danny Kristo (15-18-33), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-11-20), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-4, 2.34 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 28, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rode a strong third period to a 4-2 victory and a series sweep over the visiting Badgers. Wisconsin had swept UND earlier in the year at the Kohl Center. Both Danny Kristo and Brock Nelson had four point weekends for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-64-11 (.568), and holds a 36-32-8 (.526) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had slightly the better of it in the last ten contests, going 5-4-1 (.550) in that stretch. UND has won four of the last six, outscoring Bucky 21-17.

Game News and Notes

Despite coaching for two fewer seasons than his counterpart on the UW bench, North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol has collected six more victories than Mike Eaves. Remarkably, Wisconsin has lost just once in ten road games (6-1-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo has ten points in eight career games against the Badgers, including two goals and two assists in a home sweep last season.

The Prediction

Call it a hunch, but it’s February now and this feels like the weekend where UND’s effort translates to goals and victories. It won’t be easy, but North Dakota’s power play and penalty kill will lead the way. UND 2-0, 3-2.

UND has opportunity to rise in rankings

#10 UND has fallen to a much more natural position in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) than its lofty perch of the last couple weeks. If UND wins, its ranking goes up; it UND loses, its ranking goes down.

Follow up on last week’s predictions

In last week’s Weekly rankings analysis column I observed (and the outcomes were) that:

  • UND had more downside than upside and was likely to slump with anything less than a sweep. (Another one point weekend later, UND indeed fell from #6 to #10, right between the predicted win 1 and win 0 curves).
  • Mass.-Lowell similarly had more downside than upside, with only the comparison with UND as a possible gain and six comparisons as possible losses. (Mass.-Lowell took 3 of 4 points for the weekend and stayed #7 by taking the comparison with UND but losing the comparison with Miami).
  • Ferris St had big movement potential from #21 with a sweep or being swept (Ferris St split the weekend and dropped just one spot to #22).
  • Alaska had big movement potential from #18 (Alaska swept the weekend and climbed to #12, a much higher PWR than RPI).
  • Cornell had big movement potential from #22 (Cornell lost two and dropped to #27).
  • Dartmouth had the most downside potential from #9 (Dartmouth split the weekend and dropped to #15).

Bottom-line: this stuff works and reveals useful information that would be difficult to uncover browsing the comparison tables. But enough back-patting.

Whither UND?

In my first PWR post two weeks ago, I noted that UND was artificially high at #7 and needed to win about 6 of 14 remaining regular season games to finish in the at-large bid range of 13-15. UND has since gone 0-2-2 (.250) but dropped only to #10 in PWR.

UND still has a ton of downside potential if they continue to lose, but things are evening up a little with some upside potential for a sweep.

In the longer run view, the rough equivalent of 1 win has left UND needing about 5 wins in the remaining 10 games to be most likely to finish the regular season in the at-large bid range. Remember, though, that big moves can occur with a winning streak in the conference tournament.

Outcomes that most affect UND’s PWR this week
Outcome Average effect
on UND’s PWR
UND over Wisconsin (2 of 2) 11.57
UND over Wisconsin (1 of 2) 6.84
Holy Cross over Canisius (2 of 2) 1.74
Holy Cross over Canisius (1 of 2) 1.59
Minnesota-Duluth over Denver (2 of 2) 1.30
Michigan Tech over Nebraska-Omaha (2 of 2) 1.10
Minnesota-Duluth over Denver (1 of 2) 1.04
Michigan Tech over Nebraska-Omaha (1 of 2) 0.89
Bentley over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.76
Ferris St over Western Michigan (2 of 2) 0.71
Bentley over Niagara (1 of 2) 0.56
Rensselaer over Dartmouth 0.56

A lot of those are obvious with a quick glance at UND’s PWR comparisons.

  • Holy Cross is in danger of not being a TUC, but UND needs its 2 wins over the Crusaders to contribute to its mediocre record vs. TUCs (currently .500).
  • Denver could pass UND in RPI with a better weekend than North Dakota. Also, Duluth becoming a TUC seems to give UND a little juice (probably due to UND’s 1-0-1 record vs the Bulldogs, better than UND’s record vs current TUCs).
  • Nebraska-Omaha’s RPI could climb to about .539 with a sweep this weekend, which could allow them to take the comparison if UND also drops.
  • Similarly, Niagara and Dartmouth could take their comparisons with UND with a climb in RPI and a drop by UND.
  • Finally, UND barely loses the comparison with Western Michigan on the basis of RPI. Outperforming the Broncos this weekend would probably flip that.

Teams to watch

Biggest potential outcome (likelihood greater than 1%) spread of the week goes to UND (likely to come out between #5 and #23) and Dartmouth (likely to come out between #6 and #24).

Biggest upside potential goes to Nebraska-Omaha, which could climb a staggering 13 slots from #21 to #8 if everything went their way. This is mostly due to their reasonably strong RPI for a #21 team.

Biggest downside potential goes to Mass.-Lowell, which could drop 14 slots from #7 to #21 if everything went wrong. The looming disaster for Mass.-Lowell is clearly their miserable .250 TUC record coming into play when they hit 10 games vs. teams under consideration. It won’t happen this week without a little movement on the cliff (Maine isn’t a TUC), but it will eventually if they don’t gain some wins vs. TUCs.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

As I mentioned in my UND/SCSU Challenge Cup article, North Dakota and St. Cloud State have been paired up as schedule partners and rivals since the 2002-03 season. Two years later, the Center Ice Club created a commemorative trophy to mark the rivalry, and the two teams have been battling it out four times each season to claim the Challenge Cup.

Since that time, UND has had the better of the play, both at home (9-4-3 in the Challenge Cup era) and in St. Cloud (9-6-3). North Dakota has claimed the Cup four times, the teams have shared the trophy three times, and the Huskies won the trophy outright in 2005-06.

The teams split a November series at the National Hockey Center in St. Cloud, so the Cup is on the line this weekend in Grand Forks.

St. Cloud State is tied with Minnesota for first place in the league standings, but the standings are incredibly tight. First and seventh place are separated by only three points, with eighth place Wisconsin (6-5-5 in league play) in the mix as well.

Both teams boast top-end talent and rookies who have made an impact. Special teams will be key this weekend, particularly SCSU’s power play. The Huskies have had 105 man-advantage situations this season and have only been called upon to kill 75 penalties, a difference of more than one full power play per contest. North Dakota’s power play took a step back last weekend, converting only one of ten chances against Minnesota.

The other key this weekend is how different these two teams are on the smaller ice sheet. North Dakota is 10-3-3 this year on NHL ice (7-2-3 at Ralph Engelstad Arena and 3-1 at Notre Dame and Michigan Tech), while St. Cloud State is 3-5 on the road (compared to 11-5 at home). Furthermore, SCSU has only played four games on the narrow sheet this season, splitting road series at Denver and Minnesota-Duluth.

It may not feel this way since UND doesn’t have one marquee offensive defenseman, but the Green and White boast the second-highest scoring d-corps in the country. Blueliners Dillon Simpson, Derek Forbort, Joe Gleason, and Nick Mattson have all reached double digits in points this season. Of that foursome, only Joe Gleason is a senior.

There are twenty current NCAA Division I men’s hockey players with at least 100 career points, and four of them will be on the ice this weekend. North Dakota’s Danny Kristo (140) and Corban Knight (130) will be joined by St. Cloud State’s Drew LeBlanc (131) and LeBlanc’s teammate, Ben Hanowski, who joined the Century Club with a three point game (one goal, two assists) against Denver last Saturday night.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 8th season at SCSU, 151-119-34, .553)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 14-10-0 overall, 11-5-0 WCHA (t-1st)
Last Season: 17-17-5 overall, 12-12 4 WCHA (6th)

Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.1% (19 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (63 of 75)

Key Players: Junior F Nic Dowd (11-15-26), Senior F Drew LeBlanc (7-27-34), Senior F Ben Hanowski (8-10-18), Junior D Nick Jensen (3-16-19), Sophomore D Andrew Prochno (2-12-14), Sophomore G Ryan Faragher (13-8-0, 2.29 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-113-34, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 13-7-4 overall, 8-4-4 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.4% (20 of 95)
Penalty Kill: 82.2% (74 of 90)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (11-22-33), Senior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (8-11-19), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-3, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 10, 2012 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after Clarke Saunders stopped all 32 shots he faced in a 3-0 UND victory, St. Cloud State scored five times on 37 shots in a 5-2 home victory. Senior forward Drew LeBlanc scored twice and added an assist for the Huskies, who claimed two points and drew even in the race for the 2012-2013 Challenge Cup.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 29, 2011. In a reversal of the storyline from the last series in St. Cloud, UND rebounded from a Friday shutout loss (4-0) to claim a Saturday home victory. Mark MacMillan, Corban Knight, and Brock Nelson all scored second period goals as North Dakota avoided starting the WCHA portion of their schedule 0-4 for the first time in program history.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 60-32-11 (.636), with a stellar 30-13-5 (.677) mark in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: North Dakota has had the edge lately, posting a 6-3-1 (.650) record in the last ten meetings between the teams. UND has outscored St. Cloud State 28-23 during that span.

Game News and Notes

SCSU freshman forward Kalle Kossila leads the nation’s rookies with 11 goals. UND senior center Corban Knight is riding a 19 game point streak, the fourth-longest in school history. Knight has collected nine goals and 22 assists during that stretch. St. Cloud State has not tied a game this season (14-10-0), while UND has already knotted four games (13-7-4). North Dakota linemates Corban Knight and Danny Kristo have 30 career points in 30 games against the Huskies.

The Prediction

I could easily make a case for a three point weekend either way. St. Cloud State is flying high after a sweep of Denver last weekend (5-2, 5-1), while North Dakota is back at home after an emotional series at Minnesota. UND has only lost four home games to SCSU over the past eight seasons, so I’ll give the slight edge to North Dakota. Saturday’s rematch will go to overtime, with the Green and White salvaging a tie and claiming the Challenge Cup. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com and the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. inside the Muddy Rivers Ballroom (710 First Avenue North) near downtown Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, enjoy a free appetizer bar, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

At that time, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continued to play four games each year. It remains to be seen whether North Dakota and St. Cloud State will partner up for four games each season in the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference.

Over the past nine seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year.

UND won the Challenge Cup in 04-05, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 05-06, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 06-07, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 08-09, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. The following year (09-10), both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again. In 2010-11, UND claimed seven of eight points (3-0-1) and took back the trophy, while the 2011-12 campaign went down as another tie. And last season (2012-13), the Huskies took five of eight series points to engrave their name on the trophy once again.

If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup four times, St. Cloud has claimed the trophy twice, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup three times.

The teams will earn points toward the Challenge Cup this weekend in Grand Forks, but the winner of the trophy will not be determined until the teams meet in St. Cloud in late February and early March of next year.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com UND/SCSU fan social this Saturday, November 2nd from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. in the Muddy Rivers Ballroom (GuestHouse Inn and Suites near downtown Grand Forks). This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary appetizers, fabulous door prizes, and a fan bus to and from Ralph Engelstad Arena. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Check back on Friday for a full preview of this weekend’s game action.

Weekly rankings analysis

#6 UND is still perched somewhat precariously high in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR), though can continue to stay there if they keep winning.

Follow-up on last week’s predictions

Let’s also take a look back at last week’s A first look at NCAA hockey PairWise Rankings (PWR). I observed (and the outcomes were) that:

  • #4 Minnesota was secure in its PWR and that anything short of being swept would be unlikely to result in a drop. (Minnesota took 3 points and climbed to #2.)
  • #7 UND was on a bit more of a cliff and had the potential to fall substantially if swept. (UND took 1 point and climbed to #6. Though well within the predicted range for being between 0 and 1 wins, UND came out near the top of the range because of an unlikely sweep of Denver by St. Cloud State, as further explained in this forum post.)
  • #3 Quinnipiac was the real deal and would be well protected against sharp downward movement. (Despite not playing, Quinnipiac climbed to #1.)
  • #6 Boston University was in an artificially high ranking and doomed to fall a bit when some inevitable losses came in. (BU fell to #13 after a pair of tough losses to Northeastern and Mass. Lowell.)

All-in-all, the predictions were pretty good. A little more information could have helped readers anticipate UND’s additional strength if St. Cloud St. swept, so I’ll try to include more of that sort of information. Otherwise, readers knew in advance of Minnesota’s and Quinnipiac’s strength and Boston University’s hidden weakness.

North Dakota this week

Currently ranked #6, UND continues to have significantly more downside than upside. A sweep is most likely to result in a rise of only one position (though staying #6 is also quite likely), whereas getting swept could result in a fall of up to around 10 positions.

Games that most affect UND’s PWR

Outcome Average effect on UND’s PWR
UND over St. Cloud (2 of 2) 8.33
UND over St. Cloud (1 of 2) 5.73
Holy Cross over Bentley (2 of 2) 1.03
Holy Cross over Bentley (1 of 2) 0.80
Clarkson over Dartmouth 0.63
Alaska Anchorage over Wisconsin (2 of 2) 0.58
Northeastern over Mass.-Lowell (2 of 2) 0.54
Minnesota over MSU-Mankato (2 of 2) 0.52
Cornell over Yale 0.52
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth 0.50

UND comparisons most likely to flip

To figure out why those games matters takes some diving into North Dakota’s PWR comparisons.

Upside potential

  • Cornell and/or Colgate wins over Yale could help UND take the comparison with Yale as TUC comes into play when Yale reaches 10 games vs. TUCs.

Downside potential

  • A Bentley win over Holy Cross could knock Holy Cross out of consideration. This would considerably harm UND’s winning percentage vs. TUCs.
  • A Clarkson win over Dartmouth would be enough to give Dartmouth the edge over UND’s current RPI. A St. Lawrence win over Dartmouth would have a slightly smaller effect.
  • A pair of Wisconsin wins over Alaska Anchorage could be enough to take RPI and COP, and thus the comparison with UND.
  • A Mass.-Lowell win over Northeastern would give Mass.-Lowell the edge over UND’s current RPI and the comparison with UND.

On the cliff

The two teams with the most lopsided downside vs. upside potential this week are Mass.-Lowell and North Dakota.

Team Current PWR Highest PWR
with >1% chance
Lowest PWR
with >1% chance
Mass.-Lowell 7 5 19
North Dakota 6 5 17

Having already beat to death why UND has little upside potential but high downside potential this week, let’s take a quick look at Mass.Lowell.

First, looking at Mass.-Lowell’s PWR comparisons, notice that they haven’t yet played enough teams under consideration for the TUC criterion to come into play. Northeastern, their only opponent this weekend, also isn’t a TUC so only some movement along the TUC line would bring this into play (and none is obvious).

Second, notice that of the first 7 comparisons Mass.-Lowell wins (Miami through St. Cloud St), 6 could easily be flipped to losses via RPI (the RPIs are within .01 and flipping them would flip the comparison).

Finally, the only obvious upside potential for Mass.-Lowell is taking the comparison with North Dakota if UND stumbles.

Other superlatives

But those aren’t the biggest potential movers of the weekend (again, only measuring outcomes with over a 1% likelihood).

Teams in the high teens, low twenties seem poised to make the biggest moves in either direction. #21 Ferris St. could fall between #12 and #30, #18 Alaska between #10 and #28, and #22 Cornell between #13 and #30.

But #9 Dartmouth has the largest one way (downside) potential, with the possibility of falling up to 13 spots to #22 if everything goes wrong.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND at Minnesota

I’ve heard more talk this week about what the future holds for this rivalry than I have about this weekend’s games. And that’s not to say that the action on the ice at Mariucci isn’t important – because it is (and more on that in a moment) . It speaks more to how both fan bases want to see these games continue even as Minnesota moves to the Big Ten and North Dakota switches over to the NCHC.

As I sat at Xcel Energy Center last March during the Final Five and watched both halves of the same hockey game, I remarked that these two schools have got to find a way to continue playing each other. It’s important for both sides to put aside pride and personal politics and reach a schedule agreement, one that has each school traveling to the other at least once every four years. It’s good for the fans, it’s good for each program, and it’s good for the sport.

It’s also good for the players. It is my opinion that every four-year player at North Dakota and Minnesota should have the experience of playing in this rivalry, both home and away. So make it simple: keep the rivalry “on” for two seasons (with each school hosting one season and traveling the other), then “off” for two seasons.

It’s not enough to wait for the schools to meet in the NCAA tournament. Yes, we’ve had some thrilling NCAA games recently, but the two teams also went 25 years without meeting in the national tournament (1980-2004).

In 2005, UND defeated Minnesota in the Frozen Four semifinals, and North Dakota also claimed a 3-2 overtime victory over the Golden Gophers to advance to the 2007 Frozen Four. Don Lucia’s club turned the tables last season, ending UND’s season in the West Regional final.

It’s also difficult to wrap my head around the fact that this season’s WCHA Final Five will be the last as we know it. North Dakota has captured the last three Broadmoor trophies, but what fans of the Green and White will remember is last season’s semifinal against Minnesota, the “Timeout Game”. Gopher fans would prefer to dwell on Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner in the 2007 Final Five championship game. Either way, here’s hoping that the two clubs meet one last time on the ice at Xcel Energy Center this March.

And now, as promised, some thoughts on the games this weekend:

Both schools have posted excellent results lately, with identical 7-1-1 records over the past nine games. Minnesota’s play has been more consistent, however, while North Dakota showed defensive lapses over each of the past two weekends (vs. Holy Cross and Colorado College). UND will have to survive the first ten minutes, particularly on Friday night when emotions will be high and the Mariucci crowd (at least the ones who get there on time) will be in full throat. The Gophers have outscored opponents 33-13 in first periods this season, and a slow start will doom the team formerly known as the Fighting Sioux.

Minnesota goaltender Adam Wilcox has been outstanding between the pipes for Lucia and his squad. Wilcox is giving up well under two goals per contest and has notched three shutouts already. Most Most impressively, the freshman netminder stopped 32 of 33 Boston College shots in an 8-1 rout of the Eagles last month.

On the injury front, expect junior forward Erik Haula to return to the lineup for the Gophers after missing time with an injury to his hand. North Dakota appears to have everyone available except forward Derek Rodwell.

Minnesota is clipping along at 25 percent on the power play, so UND needs to play even strength for the majority of the weekend to take points away from Mariucci. North Dakota’s penalty kill has not been great (under 82 percent), and the Gophers draw a lot of penalties, particularly at home.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (14th season at Minnesota, 334-176-57, .639)
Pairwise Ranking: 4th
National Ranking: #1
This Season: 16-3-3 overall, 8-3-3 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 28-14-1 (NCAA Frozen Four Semifinalist), 20-8-0 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.82 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.82 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.0% (27 of 108)
Penalty Kill: 90.5% (67 of 74)

Key Players: Junior F Erik Haula (9-17-26), Sophomore F Kyle Rau (13-12-25), Junior F Nick Bjugstad (12-10-22), Junior D Nate Schmidt (3-19-22), Senior D Seth Helgeson (0-3-3), Freshman G Adam Wilcox (15-2-3, 1.65 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-112-33, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 13-6-3 overall, 8-3-3 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.45 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.1% (19 of 85)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (67 of 82)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (10-21-31), Senior F Danny Kristo (13-17-30), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (7-10-17), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-7-11), Sophomore D Nick Mattson (2-8-11), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-4-3, 2.28 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 25, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). In a rematch of the Final Five semifinal played nine days earlier, Minnesota got up by three goals once again. This time, however, the Gophers kept applying the pressure and punched their ticket to Tampa with a 5-2 victory over UND.

Last meeting at Mariucci: November 5, 2011 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota had a one goal lead with six minutes remaining, but Nick Larson and Kyle Rau both scored to lift Minnesota to a 3-2 victory and a series sweep of visiting North Dakota. The loss dropped UND to 3-6-1 overall and 1-5 in the WCHA.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 137-130-14 (.512), and boasts a 73-51-6 (.585) record in games played in Minneapolis.

Last ten: The Gophers have won six of the last ten meetings between the schools, outscoring UND 29-26 in those games.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 17-13-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. North Dakota has not lost an overtime game this season (2-0-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo (139 career points, the top active player in the NCAA) has eleven career points against Minnesota. Fellow senior Corban Knight (128 career points) is riding a 17 game point streak (8 goals and 21 assists in that span). In an effort to alleviate parking concerns, Minnesota fans are asked to park in St. Cloud and walk to Mariucci Arena.

The Prediction

As I said earlier, the start of each game will be critical. Minnesota is playing with a great deal of confidence, while North Dakota is coming in looking to find some consistency. The last time Dave Hakstol brought his team to Mariucci for a two game set, North Dakota scored a total of two goals. I see one close game and one Minnesota power play fest, with UND hoping for a split but possibly settling for less. UND 3-2, MN 5-1.