This is the last week we look at single week ranking probabilities, after this the “You are the Committee” calculators will go live and we’ll give you the rundown on all remaining possible outcomes.
It’s an interesting week, with a lot of teams’ fortunes still at play.
While the first three (#1 Quinnipiac, #2 Minnesota, and #3 Miami) in the Pairwise Rankings are reasonably secure, it starts to get interesting at #4 Mass.-Lowell. The Riverhawks are likely to stay #4-5 if they emerge from the best of 3, but plummet if they get eliminated.
The same holds true for #5 North Dakota, #6 Denver, and #7 Boston College.
#8 New Hampshire is the first team with serious upside potential. It has a decent RPI and TUC record and is playing a fellow team under consideration, Providence. Most surprisingly, the Wildcats don’t drop much this weekend if they get eliminated (particularly if they win one).
#9 Mankato, #10 Western Michigan, #11 Yale, #12 St Cloud St, and #13 Niagara all have the opportunity to climb with success, or fall to the bubble if eliminated.
#14 Rensselaer is the highest ranked team that could fall definitively below the bubble if swept.
#15 Notre Dame, #16 Union, and #17 Boston University can all push themselves onto the bubble with success this weekend.
#18 Wisconsin can put itself into a good position but is unlikely to quite climb onto the bubble even with a sweep this weekend.
#22 Alaska is the highest ranked team not playing this weekend. Though incredibly unlikely (<1% chance), they could mathematically still climb onto the bubble.
#25 Air Force is the cutoff beyond which even active teams don’t seem to be able to climb onto the bubble through this weekend’s performance alone.
If there’s anything else you’d like to know (e.g. what games are most important for a particular team, what are the chances for a team note listed here), just let me know in the comments!
Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.
The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.
- Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
- TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
- Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)