UND continues to position itself for NCAA tournament

A sweep last week put #12 UND in good position for the NCAA tournament. UND’s rise of 5 positions was on the upper end of expectations, as many opponents near them in the RPI faltered:

  • Cornell (got swept)
  • Vermont (got swept)
  • Duluth (got swept)
  • Colgate (two ties)
  • Providence (lost and tied)

The remaining season outlook is pretty much what you’d expect — last week’s, but with everything shifted by the two wins UND earned since then. UND now needs to win about half its remaining games to be in at-large position going into the conference tournament.

endofseason

One week outlook

A pretty quiet week for UND. A split most likely results in staying around #12-#14, a sweep would facilitate a climb to about #8-#11, while getting swept would lead to a fall to about #16-#19. Of course, as we saw last week those under 10% chance scenarios can occur (and should about one of ten times!)

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PWR formula note

The uncertainty around the PWR formula has apparently been resolved, with USCHO adopting the CHN formula last weekend. (See PWR formula uncertainty resolved). So, these forecasts now use the same formula as both USCHO and CHN.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

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