This week I’ll take another look at UND’s chances at making the NCAA tournament at large. I do that by forecasting UND’s PWR ranking, which mimics the NCAA tournament selection process.
However, be warned that some dispute has arisen in the college hockey online media world over the proper implementation of the NCAA’s 2014 revisions to the tournament selection process (see Uncertainty around PWR calculation). These forecasts currently assume the USCHO PWR formula.
The end of season outlook
Two weeks ago I predicted UND needed to win 8 of its remaining 12 to be in a comfortable position for an at large bid going into the conference tournaments. UND has split its only two games since then, and the prediction remains stable — UND now needs to win about 7 of its remaining 10.
Of course, if UND falls just a bit short, there’s an opportunity to make up some ground in the conference tournament.
The coming weekend
Though #15 UND experienced the predicted upside potential over the last couple weeks, they now face quite a bit more downside. Though a sweep would most likely result in a climb of a couple PWR spots, anything less would most likely result in a fall. Getting swept would likely even push UND back into the 20s (and with a tough outlook for the remaining season, as mentioned above).
Methodology
Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.
The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.
Resources
- Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- USCHO PWR Rankings
- CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
- Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)