In the ten completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022, 2023).
Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past seven seasons and a top-four finish in eight of ten seasons overall.
Here is the average finish for each of the eight conference opponents over the first ten seasons of NCHC play:
North Dakota: 2.7
Denver: 3.0
St. Cloud State: 3.2
Minnesota Duluth: 3.4
Western Michigan: 4.6
Omaha: 4.9
Miami: 6.9
Colorado College: 7.3
And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):
2023: DU, WMU, UNO, SCSU, UMD, UND, CC, MIA
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA
UND is on their way to a sixth Penrose Cup (NCHC regular season title), with a three-point lead over St. Cloud State, a seven-point lead over Denver, and a nine-point advantage over Colorado College with four regular season games remaining for each team.
Here are the current standings with two weeks to play in the regular season:
1. North Dakota (43 points)
2. St. Cloud State (40)
3. Denver (36)
4. Colorado College (34)
5. Western Michigan (31)
6. Omaha (28)
7. Minnesota Duluth (21)
8. Miami (7)
Our eyes now turn to the last few weeks of the regular season:
UND: vs. WMU, at UNO
SCSU: vs. DU, at UMD
DU: at SCSU. at/vs. CC
CC: vs. UMD, vs/at DU
WMU: at UND, vs. MIA
UNO: at MIA, vs. UND
UMD: at CC, vs. SCSU
MIA: vs. UNO, at WMU
If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.
Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.
It comes as no surprise that North Dakota – at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.
Here are the ratings:
KRACH #3 North Dakota: 541.3
KRACH #6 Denver: 424.3
KRACH #13 Colorado College: 275.6
KRACH #14 Western Michigan: 272.4
KRACH #15 St. Cloud State: 269.8
KRACH #18 Omaha: 205.8
KRACH #26 Minnesota Duluth: 114.1
KRACH #42 Miami: 60.9
Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with after the final week of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:
1. North Dakota 51.3
2. St. Cloud State 46.6
3. Denver 43.3
4. Colorado College 40.6
5. Western Michigan 37.9
6. Omaha 34.3
7. Minnesota Duluth 24.5
8. Miami 9.5
As you might have already noticed, this model expects there to be roughly a three-point gap (one league victory) separating 2nd place from 3rd, 3rd from 4th, 4th from 5th, etc. The top six teams in the league standings all have a reasonable shot at home ice in the first round of the conference playoffs.
As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding in the most competitive league in the country.
So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!
As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!