#7 UND (Current PWR rankings) remains in the driver’s seat for its tournament hopes.
Its ranking remains anchored around 6-7 with a split, could rise a little with a sweep, or could fall a few spots if swept. The conference tournaments are annoyingly difficult to predict through, but a solid performance this weekend should put UND in position for an at large bid even, if they were to suffer an early exit from the conference tournament. A sweep could even (if all else goes well) vault UND into the top 4.
| Result | Number of times |
Average increase in UND’sPWR |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota over MSU-Mankato | (2 of 2) | 4.24 |
| North Dakota over MSU-Mankato | (1 of 2) | 3.30 |
| Providence over Mass.-Lowell | (2 of 2) | 0.81 |
| Vermont over Boston College | (2 of 2) | 0.80 |
| Wisconsin over St Cloud St | (2 of 2) | 0.75 |
| Wisconsin over St Cloud St | (1 of 2) | 0.66 |
| Vermont over Boston College | (1 of 2) | 0.60 |
| Maine over New Hampshire | (2 of 2) | 0.57 |
Providence over Mass.-Lowell is UND’s most obvious chance to flip a comparison in its favor (UND’s current PWR comparisons). UND could easily take Mass.-Lowell on RPI if the River Hawks falter.
Boston College is a little harder to flip because UND already has RPI. Even a sweep of Mankato doesn’t quite give UND the TUC criterion, but gets them close enough (.5926 vs .6053) that a little movement around the TUC cliff could flip it.
While UND can overtake New Hampshire on RPI, that would just put the comparison in the same situation as that with BC. UND would fall just short on TUC (.5926 vs .5952), but a little movement on the TUC cliff could flip it.
Wisconsin over St. Cloud seems to matter defensively, if UND underperforms this weekend this would prevent St. Cloud from flipping the comparison.
St. Cloud St vs Wisconsin
This weekend’s matchup between #10 St. Cloud St and #20 Wisconsin has big PWR implications that could have big tournament implications.
St. Cloud can all but lock in a tournament berth with a sweep, or can put itself in danger of missing out if swept. Wisconsin has a lot to play for, with the possibility of rising to the bubble with a sweep.
Big movers
Overall movement looks to be relatively small this weekend. The most upside potential (that immediately seems to matter) is #22 Providence, which could find itself on the bubble with a sweep. The “look out below” award again goes to #19 Dartmouth, whose probable outcomes span a full 10 rankings if they get swept. An honorable mention for upside potential goes to #31 Colorado College, which has an outside chance of becoming relevant with a sweep over Michigan Tech (the Tigers’ probable outcomes again spanning an almost 10 ranking range if they sweep).
Methodology
Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.
The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.
Resources
- Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
- CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
- TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
- Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)