WCHA play-in weekend PWR possibilities

This one’s a little different because each team could play 2 or 3 games.

Due to limitations of the simulator, I assume that every series other than UND/Minnesota will finish in two games. So, the extremes of these predictions are about right, but the frequency distributions in the middle could be a little off.

Without further ado…


Overall Analysis

  • If UND sweeps, the Sioux could finish the weekend #3 (2% chance).
  • Even if UND were to get swept, the Sioux would be positioned for a pretty much guaranteed NCAA tournament berth if the season ended this weekend (>99% chance of being 11th or higher)
  • Leaving this weekend a #1 seed is: 45% chance if the Sioux sweep, a 7% chance if the Sioux win in 3

Crazy Stuff

  • If swept, the Sioux could still leave the weekend with a 1 seed. In one scenario out of a million, UND gets swept and finishes #4
  • If swept, the Sioux have an equal chance (one scenario out of a million) to leave the weekend #13 and in peril of missing the NCAA tournament

Of course, whether UND advances or not, there will be more games played after this weekend that will continue to move PWR a bit.

That’s all for this post, but there’s always more PWR discussion in the PWR thread.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Michigan Tech

This weekend’s games will mark the 15th and 16th meetings between the two teams in the past three seasons. In addition to the normal league schedule, the two teams met at the Great Lakes Invitational in December 2008 and faced each other in the league playoffs each of the past two seasons. In the previous 14 games, North Dakota is 10-3-1 against Michigan Tech and has outscored the Huskies 49-21. Sixteen games in three seasons is believed to be the most against one opponent in that span.

In the past five contests between the schools, the Fighting Sioux have been even more dominant, winning all five and scoring 22 goals while allowing 7.

After opening 2010 with a record of 4-5-2, UND has reeled off five straight victories and secured home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has clinched the title of “having to travel to Denver to face the #1 Pioneers and win two games to extend their season”. Two weeks ago, DU swept the visiting Huskies, 5-2 and 5-3.

Michigan Tech has been in a freefall for two years. After collecting 18 victories in 2006-07 and 14 in 07-08, the Huskies have posted a record of 11-51-8 over the past two seasons.

North Dakota can still finish as high as third place in the WCHA, as UND holds the tiebreaker over 3rd place St. Cloud State and 4th place Minnesota-Duluth. Coming into this weekend, the Fighting Sioux trail UMD by two points and SCSU by four points in the standings. Duluth is at Anchorage this weekend, while St. Cloud State travels to Mankato for a pair with the Mavericks.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 7th season at MTU, 66-163-33, .315)
National Ranking: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
This Season: 5-26-1, 4-22-0 WCHA (10th)
Last Season: 6-25-7 overall, 2-19-7 WCHA (10th)
Team Offense: 2.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.19 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.6% (22 of 141)
Penalty Kill: 69.1% (121 of 175)
Key Players: Sophomore F Brett Olson (18-12-30), Senior F Malcolm Gwilliam (12-14-26), Junior F Jordan Baker (8-9-17), Freshman D Steven Seigo (4-15-19), Freshman G Kevin Genoe (4-17-1, 3.48 GAA, .904 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 148-82-24, .630)
National Ranking: #7/#7
PairWise Ranking: t-6th
This Season: 18-11-5, 31-10-3 WCHA (5th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.18 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (39 of 183)
Penalty Kill: 87.4% (152 of 174)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (15-12-27), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (13-18-31), Freshman F Danny Kristo (12-15-27), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-22-27), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-12-14), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (17-8-4, 2.21 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 7, 2009 (Houghton, MI). UND defeated the Huskies 4-1 behind two goals from junior Evan Trupp. Trupp also had a goal in Friday’s 4-2 Sioux victory.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 14, 2009. North Dakota held on for a 4-3 victory and a sweep of the WCHA first-round playoff series. It would turn out to be UND’s last victory of the 2008-09 season, as the Fighting Sioux lost both games at the WCHA Final Five (to Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin) and dropped their NCAA tournament opener to New Hampshire in overtime.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 138-90-9 (.599), including a 77-33-4 (.693) record in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 7-2-1 (.750) record in the last ten games between the teams.

Game News and Notes

For the third consecutive week, two Fighting Sioux were honored as WCHA Players of the Week. This time around, freshman forward Corban Knight was chosen as the league’s top rookie (his third such honor this season) and sophomore goaltender Brad Eidsness earned Defensive Player honors for the second consecutive week. UND’s power play converts at 26.3 percent when Brett Hextall is in the lineup and just 6.5 percent when he does not play. Michigan Tech freshman goaltender Kevin Genoe made 58 saves last Friday night against Wisconsin. Despite the effort, MTU lost 5-2. North Dakota junior forward Matt Frattin has picked up eight points (5 goals, 3 assists) in his last five games, and has scored five goals and five assists in eleven career games against Michigan Tech. UND will honor its three seniors on the ice prior to Saturday’s game. Chay Genoway, Darcy Zajac, and Chris Vandevelde make up this year’s senior class. Our two children, Alex and Ashley, will ride the Zamboni during the first intermission on Friday night.

The Prediction

All signs point to a North Dakota sweep. Michigan Tech will need to play five on five to to keep it close and have a chance in the third period. If it’s a battle of special teams, the score could get ugly early. North Dakota 5-2, 4-2.

PWR forecast for Mar. 8

It’s that time of year, the season is winding down, and the number of remaining possible outcomes is declining dramatically, such that the PWR is becoming much more predictable. PWR aficionados know that in coming weeks the “You are the Committee” calculators (which allow you to punch in game outcomes and give you back the resultant PWR) will be coming online, so keep an eye out for those.

Last year I assumed this column would quite serving a purpose at that point, but quickly realized that the simulator is actually pretty good at finding the most extreme cases (e.g. UND could still finish #3 with this set of highly improbably outcomes), so this probably isn’t the end of these posts quite yet…

On to business…

Review last week

UND is #6 in PWR having one two. Referring to last week’s forecast, another solid hit.

The main event

This forecast has, by far, the tallest spikes of the season. PWR isn’t moving much this weekend.

How can UND end the weekend at #4

A bonus section… I analyzed those outcomes in which UND ends the weekend as #4, and hence would be slotted as a #1 seed. The following game outcomes were present in every such scenario. For the economists out there, these are necessary but not sufficient conditions (i.e. these outcomes alone won’t guarantee a #4 ranking, but the absence of these outcomes pretty much guarantees UND won’t have a #4 ranking):

UND must sweep Tech
Mankato needs at least 1 point vs SCSU
UNH needs at least 1 point vs BC

Other games to watch

These outcomes seem to help the Sioux in the widest variety of scenarios (that is, not just those in which UND sweeps and is fighting for a #4 ranking):

Mankato sweeping SCSU
Denver sweeping CC
Maine sweeping Mass
Alabama-Huntsville sweeping Bemidji St
UNH sweeping BC

I won’t try to figure out why each of those games matters here, but such discussions often crop up in the PWR Rankings forum thread