Saturday morning update

Here’s how things look going into Saturday’s games…

In (8): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Mass-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Denver

Can get in at large (6): Yale, Notre Dame, Mankato, Niagara, St Cloud, Western Michigan

Needs to win conference tournament (9): Union, Wisconsin, Boston University, Brown, Colorado College, Ohio State, Michigan, Canisius, Mercyhurst

As always, the above are my transcription and interpretation of the tables below. The tables are computer generated so much more likely to be correct, so if you see any discrepancies or have any question let me know.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#1 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Miami #3 47.3%
#4 44.9%
#5 7.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 28.1% 45.3% 87.5%
#4 56.3% 54.7% 12.5%
#5 15.6%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #4 24.6%
#5 67.2%
#6 8.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Yale #5 11.3%
#6 34.0%
#7 4.7%
#8 0.0%
#9 0.0%
#10 0.0%
#11 0.0%
#12 5.9%
#13 18.8%
#14 17.6%
#15 7.8%
Tournament invites: 69.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#5   22.7%
#6   68.0%
#7   9.4%
#8    
#9    
#10    
#11    
#12 11.7%  
#13 37.5%  
#14 35.2%  
#15 15.6%  
Tournament invites: 39.1% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 46.5%
#4 23.8%
#5 13.3%
#6 14.5%
#7 2.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3 11.7% 81.3%
#4 28.9% 18.8%
#5 26.6%  
#6 28.9%  
#7 3.9%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UND #6 43.0%
#7 43.8%
#8 7.0%
#9 6.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #6 0.4%
#7 49.6%
#8 50.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 6.3%
#4 6.6%
#5 0.4%
#6 0.0%
#7 0.0%
#8 7.8%
#9 17.6%
#10 14.1%
#11 8.2%
#12 6.3%
#13 7.8%
#14 3.1%
#15 15.6%
#16 6.3%
Tournament invites: 72.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     25.0%
#4     26.6%
#5     1.6%
#6      
#7      
#8 3.1% 25.0%  
#9 18.0% 25.0% 9.4%
#10 10.9%   34.4%
#11 11.7% 6.3% 3.1%
#12 6.3% 12.5%  
#13   31.3%  
#14 6.3%    
#15 31.3%    
#16 12.5%    
Tournament invites: 50.0% 90.6% 100.0%
Mankato #8 18.0%
#9 31.6%
#10 23.0%
#11 19.1%
#12 5.1%
#13 3.1%
Tournament invites: 96.1%		 n/a
Niagara #10 28.9%
#11 35.2%
#12 24.2%
#13 10.5%
#14 1.2%
Tournament invites: 85.9%		 n/a
SCSU #10 1.6%
#11 21.5%
#12 33.2%
#13 31.3%
#14 11.3%
#15 1.2%
Tournament invites: 72.7%		 n/a
Denver #8 17.2%
#9 44.5%
#10 29.7%
#11 7.0%
#12 1.6%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 3.1%
#14 28.1%
#15 37.5%
#16 31.3%
Tournament invites: 3.1%		 n/a
Union #11 7.4%
#12 19.1%
#13 12.9%
#14 13.7%
#15 15.6%
#16 21.9%
#17 9.4%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#11   14.8%
#12   38.3%
#13   25.8%
#14 6.3% 21.1%
#15 31.3%  
#16 43.8%  
#17 18.8%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
UW #10 2.7%
#11 1.6%
#12 4.7%
#13 9.4%
#14 18.8%
#15 9.8%
#16 19.5%
#17 7.8%
#18 3.9%
#19 21.9%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#10   5.5%
#11   3.1%
#12   9.4%
#13   18.8%
#14   37.5%
#15   19.5%
#16 32.8% 6.3%
#17 15.6%  
#18 7.8%  
#19 43.8%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Providence #20 7.8%
#21 14.1%
#22 40.6%
#23 25.0%
#24 12.5%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Boston University #13 3.1%
#14 6.3%
#15 12.5%
#16 12.5%
#17 38.3%
#18 13.7%
#19 10.2%
#20 3.5%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#13   6.3%
#14   12.5%
#15   25.0%
#16   25.0%
#17 49.2% 27.3%
#18 23.4% 3.9%
#19 20.3%  
#20 7.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #16 3.1%
#17 30.5%
#18 49.2%
#19 17.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Brown #19 3.5%
#20 68.4%
#21 20.3%
#22 6.3%
#23 1.6%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#19   7.0%
#20 43.8% 93.0%
#21 40.6%  
#22 12.5%  
#23 3.1%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #16 5.5%
#17 14.1%
#18 33.2%
#19 46.9%
#20 0.4%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
CC #22 1.6%
#23 41.8%
#24 24.2%
#25 26.2%
#26 6.3%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#22   3.1%
#23 26.6% 57.0%
#24 10.2% 38.3%
#25 50.8% 1.6%
#26 12.5%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #20 4.7%
#21 6.3%
#22 4.7%
#23 3.1%
#24 7.8%
#25 10.9%
#26 0.0%
#27 12.5%
#28 25.0%
#29 25.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#20     18.8%
#21     25.0%
#22     18.8%
#23     12.5%
#24   31.3%  
#25   18.8% 25.0%
#26      
#27   50.0%  
#28 50.0%    
#29 50.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan #25 12.5%
#26 12.5%
#27 2.3%
#28 10.2%
#29 12.5%
#30 0.0%
#31 0.8%
Non-TUC 49.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#25     50.0%
#26     50.0%
#27   9.4%  
#28   40.6%  
#29   50.0%  
#30      
#31 1.6%    
Non-TUC 98.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%

4 thoughts on “Saturday morning update”

  2. I think I figured out part of the answer to a previous question. Niagra isn’t absolutely discounted because of their lack of TUC games, but that part of their comparisons doesn’t count? So is the current PWR factoring in the lack of TUC games or is that something that is accounted for ex post facto by the committee. Seems nothing is going Cloud’s way!

  4. The biggest threats to SCSU are teams that wouldn’t get an at-large bid stealing a spot by winning the conference tournament. So, key #1 is to cheer for teams that would make it at large.

    Also, Union and Wisconsin could actually overtake them on PWR, making it harder for SCSU to make it at large. So, Brown and CC winning help in that regard.

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