Weekly PWR forecast

The bye week predictions’ results were again solid — the results went slightly against the “cheer for” recommendations so UND ended up at the bottom of the expected curve (keep in mind the predictions were through Monday, pre-Beanpot finale, at which time UND’s PWR was #16).

Without further ado…

Effect on PWR of this weekend’s games

pwrpredict20090216

UND wins 0: 78% of being #17-#18, 98% chance of being #16-#19
UND splits: 44% of being #16, 96% chance of being #15-#17
UND sweeps: 73% of being #11-#13, 89% chance of being #10-#14

Other teams to cheer for (or against) this weekend

Mass.-Lowell sweeping Boston College gives UND an average .88 bump in PWR ranking
Providence sweeping New Hampshire gives UND an average .86 bump in PWR ranking
Michigan St. sweeping Ohio St. gives UND an average .82 bump in PWR ranking
Alaska-Anchorage sweeping Minnesota gives UND an average .77 bump in PWR ranking

And a special split cheer against:

Yale losing to RPI and Union gives UND a .79 bump

Likely PWR outcomes for regular season based on remaining UND outcomes

pwrendofseason20090211

Winning 6 of its remaining 8 is the worst UND can do and still stand over a 50% chance of being #13 or higher in the PWR at the end of the regular season.