Weekend Preview: UND at Colorado College

North Dakota fans might not remember that Colorado College is still a member of the WCHA.

When the league expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha), the unbalanced schedule was tweaked once again, meaning that, outside of St. Cloud State, the Fighting Sioux would host the other conference teams three out of every five seasons.

Despite playing only a two-game road series in 2009-10, North Dakota has only two games scheduled against the Tigers this season, and, you guessed it, the games are in Colorado Springs.

To put this in perspective: the last time Colorado College played at Ralph Engelstad Arena was March 1, 2009. Since that game, UND has hosted Minnesota at REA seven times.

So here’s a Colorado College primer for you: They haven’t made the national tournament since 2008 and haven’t won as much as a game at the WCHA Final Five or the NCAAs since 2005. Their best player (forward Jaden Schwartz; 11-15-26 in 17 games) is out with an injury, and the Tigers don’t have the goaltending that fans have become accustomed to (Joe Howe is no Bachmann, Zaba, or McElhinney). In short, CC’s advantage is more altitude than attitude.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Scott Owen’s club. After this weekend’s action against North Dakota, the Tigers have a home and home with Denver and road trips to Bemidji State and Wisconsin sandwiched around home series against MSU-Mankato and Minnesota-Duluth.

For North Dakota, it’s time to pick up points and secure home ice. After returning from Colorado Springs, the Green and White host Alaska-Anchorage and Bemidji State and travel to St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech to round out the regular season.

Sioux forward Jason Gregoire has been key since returning to the lineup, potting four goals against Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota after missing seven games due to injury.

On the special teams side of things, the Tigers don’t take many penalties and they are clipping along at nearly 24 percent on the power play. On the wide sheet, this could be problematic for UND.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (12th season at CC, 272-161-39, .618)
This Season: 14-11-1 Overall, 8-8-0 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 19-17-3 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Rankings: #20/NR

Team Offense: 3.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.6% (37 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (94 of 110)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rylan Schwartz (6-21-27), Senior F Tyler Johnson (16-12-28), Senior F Stephen Schultz (12-16-28), Junior D Gabe Guentzel (4-13-17), Senior D Ryan Lowery (1-12-13), Sophomore G Joe Howe (11-9-1, 2.70 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)
This Season: 18-7-2, 13-5-0 WCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #4/#5

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.52 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (30 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (108 of 129)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-10-30), Senior F Brad Malone (9-15-24), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-15-27), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-13-24), Senior D Chay Genoway (6-19-25), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (17-5-1, 2.07 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 27, 2010 (Colorado Springs, CO). North Dakota defeated the Tigers 3-2 to complete the road sweep and clinch home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. UND won Friday’s opener in overtime by the identical score.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-75-10 (.635), although the Tigers hold a 55-47-4 (.538) edge in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the teams.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota junior forward Jason Gregoire has five points (4 goals, 1 assist) in his last four games since returning from injury. Remarkably, Colorado College is scoring almost a half-point per game more without Jaden Schwartz in the lineup. Most of that is due to the fact that Alabama-Huntsville was on the schedule. With at least two points this weekend, UND can leapfrog idle Denver and recapture first place in the league standings. North Dakota is 8-3-1 on the road this season, including WCHA sweeps at Bemidji State, MSU-Mankato, and Wisconsin.

The Prediction

It’s difficult to predict games between teams who haven’t played each other much lately. If history is any indication, this weekend’s action will be quick and entertaining. I can’t see North Dakota sweeping at Colorado College two years in a row, so I’ll call it a split. UND 3-2, CC 4-3.

Trivia

Brad Malone is the seventh Sioux player to amass over 300 career penalty minutes. Who are the other six?

Please leave your comments and trivia guesses below. As always, I thank you for reading.

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. Nebraska-Omaha

It might very well be a tale of two halves for Nebraska-Omaha. In the first two months of the season, Dean Blais’ squad went 8-1-0, outscoring opponents 40-20 and looking very much like a contender for a #1 seed in the NCAA‘s. Since that time, the Mavs are 4-7-2 and on the bubble to make the national tournament.

As expected, UNO is playing very well at home and found some early success on the road as well, winning four of their first five games away from Omaha. Since November 13th, the Mavericks have only one road victory (1-5-1).

Currently fourth in the WCHA standings, the Mavs will have to improve in order to secure home ice for the first round of the playoffs. After North Dakota, UNO plays Wisconsin, Denver, and Duluth in the second half of the season and points will be hard to come by.

North Dakota is coming off of an intense series split gainst Minnesota and now will host Nebraska-Omaha’s first ever visit to Ralph Engelstad Arena. I don’t expect the Mavs to be wide-eyed or starstruck on Friday night, as Blais will have his team prepared to win a hockey game.

Special teams will be a factor once again this weekend. UND is currently a +11 in combined power play/penalty kill, while UNO sits dead even, having scored AND allowed 18 power play goals this season.

The Fighting Sioux got a big boost last weekend when junior forward Jason Gregoire returned to the lineup. North Dakota looks to be reasonably healthy for the first time in six weeks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (2nd season at UNO, 32-24-8, .563)

This Season: 12-8-2, 9-5-2 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 20-16-6, 13-12-3 CCHA (6th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-14th
National Rankings: #16/#15

Team Offense: 3.32 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (18 of 89)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (90 of 108)

Key Players: Senior F Rich Purslow (6-13-19), Senior F Matt Ambroz (13-11-24), Senior F Joey Martin (5-17-22), Freshman F Matt White (9-6-15), Senior D Eric Olimb (1-15-16), Sophomore D Bryce Aneloski (2-6-8), Junior G John Faulkner (12-7-2, 2.47 GAA, .912 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 172-90-26, .642)

This Season: 17-6-2, 12-4-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.60 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (27 of 127)
Penalty Kill: 86.4% (102 of 118)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-9-29), Senior F Brad Malone (9-14-23), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-13-25), Senior F Evan Trupp (9-13-22), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-19-23), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (16-5-1, 1.93 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: Saturday, November 20th (Omaha, Nebraska). UNO shocked North Dakota by scoring the game’s only goal in the final second of regulation. John Faulkner made 30 saves for the Mavs. UND won Friday’s opener, 6-5.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met twice (and the series is tied at one game a piece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha took only one point from four WCHA games against Bemidji State (0-3-1). UND forward Matt Frattin leads the nation with 20 goals while goaltender Aaron Dell is fifth in the country with a 1.93 goals-against average. Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais has 294 career collegiate coaching victories. After this two-game road trip at North Dakota, UNO will be at home for the next six games (Alabama-Huntsville, St. Cloud State, Wisconsin).

The Prediction

North Dakota is deeper and is gettng great goaltending, but it is very difficult to outwork a Dean Blais team for two consecutive nights. I have a feeling that UNO will pull out at least one point this weekend. UND 3-2, 3-3 tie.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota

During the Dave Hakstol era at North Dakota, the Fighting Sioux have done everything but win a national title. For Minnesota head coach Don Lucia, it’s a case of “what have you done for me lately?” The Golden Gophers’ titles in 2002 and 2003 seem like so long ago, with many fans calling for a change. (Dean Blais, anyone?)

Since Hakstol has been the head coach at UND (beginning in 2004-05), he boasts a 9-6-3 (.583) record against Minnesota in the regular season. More impressively, his playoff mark against the Gophers stands at 5-2-0 (.714). The two losses came on Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner at the 2007 Final Five and in the middle game of a three game WCHA playoff series last year in Grand Forks. Hakstol’s teams have ended Minnesota’s season three times in his six seasons as a head coach: 2004-05 Frozen Four semifinal, 2006-07 West Regional final, and the 2009-10 WCHA first round playoff series.

Over those six seasons, Hakstol has made the NCAA tournament six times (Minnesota: four, missing the last two), has won the MacNaughton Cup once and the Broadmoor Trophy twice, and has brought his team to the Frozen Four four times. Lucia, by contrast, has claimed one Frozen Four visit, two MacNaughton Cup titles, and one Broadmoor Trophy since 2004-05.

It’s true that the games this weekend are about the players, not the coaches. For Minnesota, senior goaltender Alex Kangas will have season-ending surgery, but in the interest of full disclosure, junior Kent Patterson has been the better netminder this season. The issue here is that there is no one behind Patterson with even a minute of college experience. Junior Jake Kremer will be the backup this weekend for the Gophers.

Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire has not been ruled out for this weekend’s action, and his return could give North Dakota a huge lift. Fellow junior Brett Hextall returned last weekend against Robert Morris after missing the previous five games.

UND senior forward Matt Frattin continues his torrid goal-scoring pace. His Hobey-worthy point totals now stand at 20 goals and 8 assists in 23 games. His assist numbers could be a bit higher, but it’s tough to collect helpers when the coaches ask you to shoot all the time and all of your shots go in, leaving no rebounds for your teammates.

Special teams will be critical this weekend, just as they were in last season’s WCHA first round playoff series. North Dakota won games one and three, holding the Gophers scoreless on eight power play opportunities. In Minnesota’s game two victory, they converted three of four chances with the man advantage. For the season, UND is a +9 in combined special teams play, while Lucia’s squad is a -5. The Fighting Sioux have also scored five shorthanded goals this season, while the Gophers have notched two.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (12th season at Minnesota, 283-153-50, .634)

This Season: 9-8-3 overall, 6-6-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 18-19-2 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 12-14-2 WCHA (7th)
PairWise Ranking: 24th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.05 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.8% (17 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 74.4% (64 of 86)

Key Players: Senior F Jay Barriball (11-10-21), Senior F Jacob Cepis (7-11-18), Senior F Mike Hoeffel (8-8-16), Senior D Cade Fairchild (3-8-11), Senior D Kevin Wehrs (1-7-8), Junior G Kent Patterson (7-3-3, 2.50 GAA, .918 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 171-89-26, .643)

This Season: 16-5-2, 11-3-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
PairWise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.65 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (23 of 115)
Penalty Kill: 86.8 (92 of 106)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-8-28), Senior F Brad Malone (7-13-20), Sophomore F Corban Knight (11-13-24), Senior F Evan Trupp (8-11-19), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-17-21), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (15-4-1, 1.92 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 14, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). In game three of the first round WCHA playoff series, North Dakota prevailed 4-1 to end Minnesota’s season and advance to the WCHA Final Five. UND would claim the Broadmoor Trophy six days later after dispatching Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, and St. Cloud State. The Sioux and Gophers split the first two playoff games, with North Dakota winning 6-0 on Friday night and Minnesota rebounding with a 4-2 victory on Saturday.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series, 132-127-14 (.509), but North Dakota holds a 69-54-8 (.557) advantage in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 5-4-1 in the last ten meetings between the teams. Three of the last ten games have gone to overtime.

Game News and Notes

Minnesota has played to overtime in its last three games, losing to Union and tying Minnesota-Duluth and Ferris State. North Dakota’s Evan Trupp, Jason Gregoire, and Chay Genoway each have nine career points against the Maroon and Gold. The Gophers have not won a game this season when trailing after one period of play (0-6-0). This weekend is a White Out Weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena, with Fighting Sioux fans encouraged to wear white to both games. In an effort to minimize traffic and congestion at the arena, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m.

The Prediction

The teams are not evenly matched, but the intensity will be there on both sides. Officiating and special teams will be key, and I have a feeling Minnesota will take the opener before North Dakota’s talent shines in the rematch. UMN 3-2, UND 4-1.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Robert Morris

If Robert Morris steals a game at Ralph Engelstad Arena this weekend, it will be a monumental upset. To date, the Colonials have played the softest schedule in men’s hockey. A weaker schedule than Bentley, American International, Sacred Heart, and all the rest.

By contrast, North Dakota has played the nation’s toughest slate of games and are unbeaten in their last seven (6-0-1). The Fighting Sioux boast the nation’s winningest goaltender (Aaron Dell, 13 victories) and goal scoring leader (Matt Frattin, 18 goals). UND is perched atop the WCHA and poised for a second half run to the MacNaughton Cup.

Robert Morris is a new member of Atlantic Hockey this season and is currently in second place. A sparkling 5-0 record in non-conference play has the Colonials looking for their first winning season in program history. It is worth noting that the five wins came against Ohio State, Colgate (2), and Alabama-Huntsville (2).

UND needs two victories to improve on a 3-2-2 non-conference record. Two losses at Maine and ties against Alaska-Anchorage and Notre Dame are blemishes that may prove costly when seeds are announced for the NCAA tournament.

On the injury front, there has been no update on Sioux forward Jason Gregoire. Fellow forward Brett Hextall is expected to play this weekend after missing the past five games. Freshmen Derek Forbort and Brock Nelson are back in Grand Forks and should be ready to go after earning bronze medals at the World Junior Championships.

After this weekend’s series, UND plays host to Minnesota and Nebraska-Omaha on back-to-back weekends before heading to Colorado College at the end of January.

Robert Morris Team Profile

Head Coach: Derek Schooley (7th season at RMU, 81-118-28, .419)
This Season: 12-5-2, 7-5-2 Atlantic Hockey (2nd)
Last Season: 10-19-6, 6-9-3 CHA (2nd)
PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 3.32 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (18 of 93)
Penalty Kill: 85.2% (69 of 81)
Key Players: Senior F Nathan Longpre (9-18-27), Senior F Chris Kushner (6-12-18), Junior F Adam Brace (5-9-14), Senior D Denny Urban (7-18-25), Junior D James Lyle (2-4-6), Junior G Brooks Ostergard (10-4-1, 2.32 GAA, .921 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 169-89-26, .641)
This Season: 14-5-2, 11-3-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
PairWise Ranking: #2
National Rankings: #2/#2
Team Offense: 3.52 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.52 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (20 of 106)
Penalty Kill: 85.6% (83 of 97)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (18-8-26), Senior F Brad Malone (7-11-18), Sophomore F Corban Knight (9-11-20), Senior F Evan Trupp (7-10-17), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-14-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (13-4-1, 2.09 GAA, .912 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Robert Morris and North Dakota have never met, so this section is noticeably shorter than normal. 2010-2011 is the Colonials’ seventh at the Division I level.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not won an overtime game this season (0-1-2). The Fighting Sioux have allowed the first goal in 14 games this season, and have compiled a sparkling 10-3-1 record in those games. Robert Morris has never finished a hockey season with a winning record. UND has not lost when leading after two periods this season (10-0-0). Sioux forward Matt Frattin leads the NCAA with 18 goals.

The Prediction

I feel like RMU will make one game close, and my instinct tells me it will be a battle on Saturday night after a Friday rout. UND 6-1, 3-2.

Terry Casey Tribute

Prior to Friday night’s series opener, Terry Casey’s #12 jersey will be hung in the rafters at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Casey finished his North Dakota hockey career with 118 points in 88 games and was named a first-team All-American after his senior year. Casey was selected to the 1968 U.S. Olympic hockey team, but died in a car accident in July 1967. His jersey has been retired since 1968.

Inside the WCHA: 2010-11 Midseason Report

At the beginning of the season, I gave you my predicted order of finish in the WCHA:

1. North Dakota
2. St. Cloud State
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Denver
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota
7. Colorado College
8. Bemidji State
9. Nebraska-Omaha
10. MSU-Mankato
11. Alaska-Anchorage
12. Michigan Tech

And here’s how the race stacks up heading into this weekend’s action:

WCHA 2010-11 Current Standings

Team Record Points
North Dakota 11-3-0 22
Denver 9-3-2 20
Minnesota-Duluth 9-3-2 20
Nebraska-Omaha 9-4-1 19
Colorado College 8-6-0 16
Minnesota 6-6-2 14
Wisconsin 6-6-2 14
Alaska-Anchorage 4-8-2 10
MSU-Mankato 4-8-2 10
Bemidji State 4-9-1 9
St. Cloud State 3-8-1 7
Michigan Tech 1-10-1 3

It is worth noting that the top ten teams all have 14 games to play, while the bottom two (St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech) have 16 games remaining. Of the top four teams contending for the MacNaughton Cup, North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth have the most manageable schedules, while Denver’s remaining road games, in particular, are difficult and Nebraska-Omaha’s second half slate is downright brutal.

So far, the biggest surprises to me have been Nebraska-Omaha (positive) and St. Cloud State (negative). Alaska-Anchorage has overachieved so far, but they’ll have an uphill climb if they hope to stay out of the bottom three spots in the league.

In my season preview, I said this about picking Dean Blais’ UNO squad to end up in 9th:

Nebraska-Omaha: It’s tough to pick a Dean Blais team to finish this low, but I think they’re a year away from really contending.

After a blazing hot start (8-1-1), the Mavs went 4-6-0 to end 2010. As I mentioned earlier, they have the toughest second half schedule in the league and they will have to battle to secure home ice for the WCHA playoffs.

On the other end of the spectrum is a struggling team that I expect will continue to struggle. Coming into the season, St. Cloud State was a loaded team without many question marks. Heading into 2011, the Huskies are a bunch of question marks with no opportunity to reload.

SCSU’s only first-half highlight, wins over Cornell and Miami to claim the Florida College Classic championship, was marred by on off-ice incident that resulted in Chris Hepp, Tony Mosey, and Bryce Johnson leaving the team at semester break.

We will have a very interesting race for the league title. Take a look at the remaining opponents for the top seven teams:

North Dakota Home: UMN (2), UNO (2), UAA (2), BSU (2);
Road: CC (2), SCSU (2), MTU (2)
Denver Home: UAA (2), MTU (2), SCSU (2), CC (1);
Road: MSUM (2), UMN (2), UNO (2), CC (1)
Minnesota-Duluth Home: UW (2), UMN (2), SCSU (2), UNO (2);
Road: MTU (2), MSUM (2), CC (2)
Nebraska-Omaha Home: BSU (2), SCSU (2), UW (2), DU (2);
Road: UND (2), UAA (2), UMD (2)
Colorado College Home: UND (2), MSUM (2), UMD (2), DU (1);
Road: UAA (2), BSU (2), UW (2), DU (1)
Minnesota Home: UAA (2), DU (2), MTU (2);
Road: UND (2), UMD (2), UW (2) BSU (2)
Wisconsin Home: MSUM (2), UMN (2), CC (2);
Road: UMD (2), MTU (2), UNO (2), SCSU (2)

If I had to predict how the race for home ice would play out, I would put them in this order:

1. North Dakota
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Denver
4. Colorado College
5. Nebraska-Omaha
6. Wisconsin

Due to the new WCHA Final Five format (# 3 vs. # 6 and # 4 vs. # 5 on Thursday), only the top two teams remaining after the first round series have been played will receive byes into Friday’s semifinal games.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

UND at Minnesota-Duluth: Hall of Fame Game Preview

Minnesota Vikings football on a Tuesday night and Sioux hockey on Thursday. This is really messing up my weekly rhythm.

As such, I don’t have a preview full of facts, figures, and statistics. If you’d like to look back at the UND/Duluth series history and matchup through the years, click here.

This preview will focus on just one thing: how crucial this game is to the Pairwise standings at the end of the year. The two teams will not meet again in the regular season but could possibly play at the WCHA Final Five in St. Paul. If Duluth can “hold serve” in their new arena, they will have a decided advantage going forward.

Both teams are missing key players. For North Dakota, top-line forwards Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall will miss their fifth straight game due to injury, while defenseman Derek Forbort and forward Brock Nelson represent the United States at the World Junior Championships. Duluth’s top two point-scoring defensemen, Dylan Olsen and Justin Faulk, are also in Buffalo, New York wth Team USA.

The Prediction:
It’s always difficult to predict how teams will come out after a holiday break, and the edge is certainly with the Bulldogs. North Dakota spoiled Bemidji’s arena opener earlier this season, and I have a feeling that they’ll do it again. UND 4, UMD 3.

For your consideration: The University of North Dakota Pilots

Introducing The University of North Dakota Pilots. The Pilots. The UND Pilots.
.
In the interest of generating public support for one or more new nickname ideas, I offer for your consideration The Pilots.

Any new name must pass muster in a number of different areas to make a final list. The guidelines which follow come directly from the task force charged with finding a new nickname at Arkansas State University. I’m not suggesting that the University of North Dakota will work under the same exact framework, but at this stage guidelines such as these will inform and direct our discussion.

The name selected must not conflict with the school colors.

No conflict here. Any sort of Pilot logo could easily use green and/or pink as its primary colors, with black and white as secondary or alternate colors.

The name selected must be suitable for use with both men’s and women’s teams (non-gender specific).

Check.

The name selected should not be one that invites derision, humor or double meaning.

Aside from the fact that plane crashes inevitably occur from time to time, I couldn’t think of anything else to include here.

The name selected should be one that will stand the test of time.

Given the strong connection with UND’s Aerospace program and the continued presence of the Air Force Base in the Grand Forks community, I’m confident that Pilots can last forever.

The name selected should be one that suggests pride, courage and a strong competitive spirit and one that inspires the creation of effective imagery and logos for use in promotion and marketing efforts.

A pilot signifies pride, courage, and a competitive (and adventuresome) spirit. Some of the more famous pilots – Neil Armstrong, Amelia Earhart, Charles Lindbergh, and Chuck Yeager – are considered national heroes.

In terms of effective imagery and logos, I feel it passes the test with flying colors. “Pilots” can be effectively combined with the existing crossed “ND” logo or on its own as a primary or secondary logo .

The marketing possibilities are nearly endless. The club sections could be hangars, the booster organization could become the Pilots Club (with varying degrees of membership: aviators, bombardiers, co-pilots, etc.), and I’m sure Honda would love to jump on board since its Honda Pilot looks great in green.

The name selected will be distinctive and, if possible, unique to our conference, region and nation.

Distinctive, yes. Unique, almost.

Two former teams have been called the Pilots: major league baseball’s Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers in 1970, while the ECHL’s Pensacola Ice Pilots reorganized and dropped to the Southern Professional Hockey League in 2008, becoming the Ice Flyers.

The University of Portland (Oregon) and LSU-Shreveport (Louisiana) athletic teams are both called the Pilots, while the Bethel College (Indiana) Pilots use a nautical theme for their logo. As far as I know, no other team competing at the collegiate level or higher is known as the Pilots or any derivative thereof. I have no problem with North Dakota being the fourth team in the nation (and first in our region) to be called the Pilots, given that the name fares so strongly in every other area.

There is an instant connection between the UND Pilots and the city of Grand Forks, the University of North Dakota (specifically its Aerospace program), and the Grand Forks Air Force Base. The Pilots is a team name that is ready for flight.

I recognize that no one name will resonate with all interested parties, and I expect that this idea will be no different. Please feel free to comment, dissect, offer alternatives, or avoid the discussion altogether. It’s up to you.

A first look at rankings

When to look at PWR

Though January is the traditional time to start really looking at rankings, UND only has one meaningful game remaining before the new year, so now seems a fine time for a sneak preview.

First, I do want to draw attention to my essay from last year, When to start looking at PWR? Inspired by some humorously early bracketology discussions last Fall, it analyzes when the PWR rankings become useful by looking at two criteria:

  • How stable is it week-to-week?  If a #1 ranked team is likely to become a #15 ranked team next weekend after a loss or two, then it’s a practically useless measure.
  • How good a predictor is the current PWR of the final PWR?  The real PWR is only calculated once, once all the games have been played and it’s time to seed the tournament.  We’re really only interested in “if the season ended today” PWR calculations because we think they may have some predictive value of those final PWRs.

In short, PWR is wildly unstable until January and doesn’t become a very good predictor of end-of-season PWR until March.

PWR prediction

So, rather than look at PWR itself (what the tournament seeds would be if the season ended today), I’m going to fire up the PWR Predictor and show you what PWR could be at the end of the regular season, based on UND’s performance between now and then.

We knew it intuitively based on the record, but wow is UND in a different place from previous years (potential outcomes as of Feb. 10, 2010 and as of Jan. 29, 2009).

UND seems to already have a pretty solid lock on being a TUC — winning 7 of the remaining 17 almost guarantees it.

Winning just 7 would likely leave UND on the precipice of an at-large bid, while winning 8 would slide the Sioux more comfortably into the tweens.

Do keep in mind how flat some of those curves are, so it’s much more likely for UND to fall into a “tail”  — e.g. while the “win 7” curve is centered around #10, it’s only half as likely to be #14 or a quarter as likely to be #16.

Bonus coverage — what’s up with Yale?

There’s been a lot of chatter about whether Yale’s #1 ranking and poll spot is deserved, given the quality of competition they’ve played.  One of the questions being asked is how good a job the rankings do at incorporating strength-of-schedule for teams with exceptional win-loss records.  The PWR Predictor can help with a question like this by measuring the stability of Yale’s lofty perch atop the rankings.  If Yale loses a handful of games and plummets to a more mortal win-loss record, what will happen to their PWR?

It’s a little hard to read because it’s so dense over there near the #1 ranking.  Basically, Yale would have to win fewer than 7 of their remaining 17 games to be in likely danger of not being a TUC.  With as few as 10 wins they seem almost a lock for a top 4 seed.

Bottom-line: From a PWR perspective, Yale is for real.

Resources

I don’t expect to have anything new to say about PWR for at least a month or two, but data hounds may want to keep an eye on things themselves:

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at MSU-Mankato

It’s been a different sort of first half for North Dakota. In head coach Dave Hakstol‘s first six seasons, UND has gone into the Christmas break with an average of 6.2 WCHA losses. Heading into Mankato this weekend (their last conference action until January), the Fighting Sioux sport a 9-3-0 league record.

It’s also worth noting that two of those three conference losses were an overtime loss against Duluth and a last-second heartbreaking defeat in Omaha.

In non-conference action, the Green and White hit a two-game skid at Maine but performed well otherwise and have an even 2-2-2 mark against Alaska-Anchorage, Alaska, Maine, and Notre Dame. The “non-conference” game at Duluth to open the Bulldogs’ new arena and a home series against Robert Morris will be important second-half contests if UND has designs on a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Minnesota-State Mankato has come on lately, winning its last four games (@UMass-Lowell, vs. Minnesota). The Mavs have been road warriors, playing eight consecutive games away from Alltel Center. Before last weekend’s series against the Gophers, the Landcows’ last home game was October 23rd.

It’s been feast or famine in the goal scoring department for Jutting’s squad. In six victories, MSU-M has averaged 4.0 goals per game. In six defeats, the Mavericks have scored an average of 1.3 goals.

Mankato has only one player with more than four goals on the season (Justin Jokinen, 6) while North Dakota’s top lamp-lighters are Matt Frattin (15) and Corban Knight (9).

In injury news, Sioux forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire will be out of the lineup once again. Look for senior forward Brett Davidson to play up front this weekend after a strong Saturday night against St. Cloud State.

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (11th season at MSUM, 164-188-51, .470)
This Season: 6-6-4, 4-6-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 16-20-3, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.81 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (11 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (69 of 85)

Key Players: Freshman F Chase Grant (4-6-10), Junior F Michael Dorr (4-6-10), Senior F Andrew Sackrison (3-5-8), Senior D Kurt Davis (4-9-13), Senior F Ben Youds (2-2-4), Sophomore G Phil Cook (5-6-2, 3.03 GAA, .913 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 166-89-26, .637)
This Season: 11-5-2, 9-3-0 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: #4
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.39 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (17 of 93)
Penalty Kill: 85.9% (67 of 78)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (15-7-22), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (9-8-17), Senior F Evan Trupp (5-8-13), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-12-15), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (10-4-1, 2.18 GAA, .902 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 9, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota got two goals from Jason Gregoire for the second consecutive game and completed the sweep of the visiting Mavs, 3-2. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s opener, 4-1.

Last Meeting in Mankato: October 18, 2008. North Dakota turned the special teams tables on Mankato by scoring three power play goals and adding a late shorthander for a 4-3 victory. MSU-M won Friday’s opener 5-1 on the strength of three shorthanded tallies.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 33-10-7 (.730), including a 12-4-4 (.700) record in games played in Mankato.

Last ten: North Dakota has a sparkling 9-1-0 (.900) record in the last ten contests, and has lost just once in the last 16 meetings (14-1-1).

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has allowed the first goal in 12 of 18 contests this year and has a record of 8-3-1 in those games. The Mavericks have killed off the last 13 opponent power play opportunities, while North Dakota was held without a power play marker in 11 chances last weekend against St. Cloud State. UND has not lost when leading after two periods this season (8-0-0). Sioux forward Matt Frattin is tied for the NCAA goal-scoring lead with 15.

The Prediction

If North Dakota were healthy, I would pick a sweep. If North Dakota were at home, I would pick a sweep. The Fighting Sioux are banged up and on the road, and I’m picking a sweep. These are the road games good teams need to win to become great teams. UND 4-3, 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

North Dakota has played by far the toughest schedule in the country to this point, battling five teams (two games each) in the top 13 in the pairwise rankings. Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, Notre Dame, Denver, and Maine would all make the tournament (along with North Dakota) if the season ended today.

St. Cloud State has faced three opponents in the same category (Miami [OH], Minnesota, and Nebraska-Omaha), for a total of six games.

UND went 4-5-1 against top-tier opponents, losing one game in overtime and another in the final second of regulation. St. Cloud has a record of 1-3-2 against its toughest opponents.

Why, then, is North Dakota a top-ten team in the polls and in the pairwise, while St. Cloud is looking at a second-division WCHA finish?

The answer is in the rest of the schedule. The Fighting Sioux are 5-0-1 against Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Wisconsin, and Bemidji State, while the Huskies are a pedestrian 4-4-0 against RIT, Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Alaska-Anchorage.

SCSU is currently in 7th place in the WCHA, but that’s a bit misleading since they’ve only played eight league games while more than half of the teams in the conference (and six of the seven teams tied or above in the standings) have played ten.

After this weekend, the two teams play one more WCHA series (UND at MSU-Mankato, SCSU vs. Colorado College) before the Christmas break, and both squads would like to pick up conference points this weekend to set themselves up for a second half run.

On the injury front, UND forward Brett Hextall will miss this weekend’s games with an undisclosed injury, while two other (unnamed) Sioux players are questionable for the series.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 110-81-26, .567)
This Season: 5-7-2, 3-4-1 WCHA (t-7th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.07 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (16 of 94)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (49 of 60)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (2-8-10), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (5-12-17), Junior F Jared Festler (6-3-9), Freshman D Nick Jensen (2-7-9), Senior D Chris Hepp (1-2-3), Sophomore G Mike Lee (3-4-1, 3.27 GAA, .887 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 164-89-26, .634)
This Season: 9-5-2, 7-3-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: # 7
National Rankings: # 7/# 7

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.86 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (17 of 82)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (61 of 72)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (13-4-17), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (8-8-16), Senior F Evan Trupp (4-7-11), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-10-13), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (8-4-1, 2.29 GAA, .899 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 20, 2010 (St. Paul, MN). In the Final Five title game, SCSU won the opening minute 2-0 and the Fighting Sioux won the remaining 59 minutes by a score of 5-1. It was North Dakota’s third victory in three nights at the tournament.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 14, 2009. One night after St. Cloud junior forward Aaron Marvin met North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway with a high elbow, the visiting Huskies posted a 3-2 victory over North Dakota. SCSU goaltender Dan Dunn made 46 saves and withstood a furious Sioux comeback after St. Cloud took an early 3-0 lead.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 53-29-10 (.630), including a 27-12-5 (.670) mark on home ice and a record of 8-3-3 (.679) in games played in the new Ralph Engelstad Arena since it opened in 2001.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 6-3-1 (.650) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series.

Game News and Notes

UND is 8-0-0 all-time when Mario Lamoureux scores a goal (so here’s hoping he doesn’t shadow box anybody). The junior forward has scored three goals in five career games against the Huskies. SCSU netminder Mike Lee is expected to start Friday’s opener despite being lit up in three games against North Dakota last season (0-3, 6.70 GAA, .835 SV%). Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol has 99 career WCHA victories to his credit.

The Prediction

This one hinges on the health in North Dakota’s locker room. If one of the (unnamed) players unable to go this weekend is who I believe he is, then we could be looking at a split. I was spot on with my three point prediction last weekend against the Fighting Irish, so we’ll try it again. The Fighting Sioux will have better success against goaltender Mike Lee on Friday than they will against his counterpart (Dan Dunn) on Saturday, so we’ll go with UND 5-2, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar (a smoke-free venue). This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, view the Challenge Cup, and win fabulous door prizes. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.