Sioux Sports Talk

Despite better and more consistent play over the past two weekends, North Dakota is still struggling to find victories and finds itself in a precarious position for the NCAA tournament with Wisconsin coming to town.

Sound familiar? It’s the same story as last season. Almost exactly one year ago, UND managed no better than splits against Minnesota and St. Cloud State and needed wins against the Badgers. The Green and White swept Bucky out of the Ralph and went 12-3-1 the rest of the way, earning home ice for the playoffs, claiming the Broadmoor trophy, and making the NCAA West Regional final.

This season, Dave Hakstol’s club has struggled to find victories over the past couple of weekends, earning only a pair of ties and two losses against Minnesota and St. Cloud State. UW comes to town white-hot, with a 10-1-3 mark in the past 14 games, the same 14 games that freshman phenom Nic Kerdiles has been in the lineup.

The teams are tied for fourth in the WCHA race, but North Dakota’s picture nationally looks a little brighter than Wisconsin’s: UW is currently 23rd in the Pairwise rankings, while UND sits in 10th.

Mike Eave’s squad boasts a pair of netminders with sub-2.00 goals-against averages, and his team is allowing exactly two goals per game for the season. The struggle for Bucky has been scoring, particularly on the power play. If the two teams earn the same number of man-advantage opportunities, that situation would favor North Dakota.

For Dave Hakstol, freshman goaltender Zane Gothberg has worked his way into a rotation with Clarke Saunders. As a freshman for Alabama-Huntsville, Saunders faced the Badgers twice, and his line is not very impressive: 0-2-0, 6.73 GAA, .821 SV%. It is fair to say that the junior transfer has a different team in front of him this time around.

On the injury front, Wisconsin will be without the services of senior forward Derek Lee, who is still suffering from the effects of a concussion. Lee is second on the team in scoring with 19 points. North Dakota is healthy up and down the lineup, and appears to have more scoring depth than the Badgers.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (11th season at UW, 220-164-49, .565)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Ranking: #19
This Season: 11-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 17-18-2 overall, 11-15-2 WCHA (10th)

Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.4% (8 of 70)
Penalty Kill: 82.4% (70 of 85)

Key Players: Junior F Michael Mersch (15-6-21), Junior F Mark Zengerle (4-9-13), Freshman F Nic Kerdiles (3-7-10 in 14 games), Sophomore D Jake McCabe (2-8-10), Senior D John Ramage (4-3-7), Sophomore G Joel Rumpel (6-6-3, 1.85 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-114-35, .649)
Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 13-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (21 of 99)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (79 of 96)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-23-35), Senior F Danny Kristo (15-18-33), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-11-20), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-4, 2.34 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 28, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rode a strong third period to a 4-2 victory and a series sweep over the visiting Badgers. Wisconsin had swept UND earlier in the year at the Kohl Center. Both Danny Kristo and Brock Nelson had four point weekends for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-64-11 (.568), and holds a 36-32-8 (.526) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had slightly the better of it in the last ten contests, going 5-4-1 (.550) in that stretch. UND has won four of the last six, outscoring Bucky 21-17.

Game News and Notes

Despite coaching for two fewer seasons than his counterpart on the UW bench, North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol has collected six more victories than Mike Eaves. Remarkably, Wisconsin has lost just once in ten road games (6-1-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo has ten points in eight career games against the Badgers, including two goals and two assists in a home sweep last season.

The Prediction

Call it a hunch, but it’s February now and this feels like the weekend where UND’s effort translates to goals and victories. It won’t be easy, but North Dakota’s power play and penalty kill will lead the way. UND 2-0, 3-2.

As I mentioned in my UND/SCSU Challenge Cup article, North Dakota and St. Cloud State have been paired up as schedule partners and rivals since the 2002-03 season. Two years later, the Center Ice Club created a commemorative trophy to mark the rivalry, and the two teams have been battling it out four times each season to claim the Challenge Cup.

Since that time, UND has had the better of the play, both at home (9-4-3 in the Challenge Cup era) and in St. Cloud (9-6-3). North Dakota has claimed the Cup four times, the teams have shared the trophy three times, and the Huskies won the trophy outright in 2005-06.

The teams split a November series at the National Hockey Center in St. Cloud, so the Cup is on the line this weekend in Grand Forks.

St. Cloud State is tied with Minnesota for first place in the league standings, but the standings are incredibly tight. First and seventh place are separated by only three points, with eighth place Wisconsin (6-5-5 in league play) in the mix as well.

Both teams boast top-end talent and rookies who have made an impact. Special teams will be key this weekend, particularly SCSU’s power play. The Huskies have had 105 man-advantage situations this season and have only been called upon to kill 75 penalties, a difference of more than one full power play per contest. North Dakota’s power play took a step back last weekend, converting only one of ten chances against Minnesota.

The other key this weekend is how different these two teams are on the smaller ice sheet. North Dakota is 10-3-3 this year on NHL ice (7-2-3 at Ralph Engelstad Arena and 3-1 at Notre Dame and Michigan Tech), while St. Cloud State is 3-5 on the road (compared to 11-5 at home). Furthermore, SCSU has only played four games on the narrow sheet this season, splitting road series at Denver and Minnesota-Duluth.

It may not feel this way since UND doesn’t have one marquee offensive defenseman, but the Green and White boast the second-highest scoring d-corps in the country. Blueliners Dillon Simpson, Derek Forbort, Joe Gleason, and Nick Mattson have all reached double digits in points this season. Of that foursome, only Joe Gleason is a senior.

There are twenty current NCAA Division I men’s hockey players with at least 100 career points, and four of them will be on the ice this weekend. North Dakota’s Danny Kristo (140) and Corban Knight (130) will be joined by St. Cloud State’s Drew LeBlanc (131) and LeBlanc’s teammate, Ben Hanowski, who joined the Century Club with a three point game (one goal, two assists) against Denver last Saturday night.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 8th season at SCSU, 151-119-34, .553)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 14-10-0 overall, 11-5-0 WCHA (t-1st)
Last Season: 17-17-5 overall, 12-12 4 WCHA (6th)

Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.1% (19 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (63 of 75)

Key Players: Junior F Nic Dowd (11-15-26), Senior F Drew LeBlanc (7-27-34), Senior F Ben Hanowski (8-10-18), Junior D Nick Jensen (3-16-19), Sophomore D Andrew Prochno (2-12-14), Sophomore G Ryan Faragher (13-8-0, 2.29 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-113-34, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 13-7-4 overall, 8-4-4 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.4% (20 of 95)
Penalty Kill: 82.2% (74 of 90)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (11-22-33), Senior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (8-11-19), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-3, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 10, 2012 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after Clarke Saunders stopped all 32 shots he faced in a 3-0 UND victory, St. Cloud State scored five times on 37 shots in a 5-2 home victory. Senior forward Drew LeBlanc scored twice and added an assist for the Huskies, who claimed two points and drew even in the race for the 2012-2013 Challenge Cup.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 29, 2011. In a reversal of the storyline from the last series in St. Cloud, UND rebounded from a Friday shutout loss (4-0) to claim a Saturday home victory. Mark MacMillan, Corban Knight, and Brock Nelson all scored second period goals as North Dakota avoided starting the WCHA portion of their schedule 0-4 for the first time in program history.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 60-32-11 (.636), with a stellar 30-13-5 (.677) mark in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: North Dakota has had the edge lately, posting a 6-3-1 (.650) record in the last ten meetings between the teams. UND has outscored St. Cloud State 28-23 during that span.

Game News and Notes

SCSU freshman forward Kalle Kossila leads the nation’s rookies with 11 goals. UND senior center Corban Knight is riding a 19 game point streak, the fourth-longest in school history. Knight has collected nine goals and 22 assists during that stretch. St. Cloud State has not tied a game this season (14-10-0), while UND has already knotted four games (13-7-4). North Dakota linemates Corban Knight and Danny Kristo have 30 career points in 30 games against the Huskies.

The Prediction

I could easily make a case for a three point weekend either way. St. Cloud State is flying high after a sweep of Denver last weekend (5-2, 5-1), while North Dakota is back at home after an emotional series at Minnesota. UND has only lost four home games to SCSU over the past eight seasons, so I’ll give the slight edge to North Dakota. Saturday’s rematch will go to overtime, with the Green and White salvaging a tie and claiming the Challenge Cup. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com and the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. inside the Muddy Rivers Ballroom (710 First Avenue North) near downtown Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, enjoy a free appetizer bar, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

At that time, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continued to play four games each year. It remains to be seen whether North Dakota and St. Cloud State will partner up for four games each season in the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference.

Over the past nine seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year.

UND won the Challenge Cup in 04-05, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 05-06, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 06-07, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 08-09, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. The following year (09-10), both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again. In 2010-11, UND claimed seven of eight points (3-0-1) and took back the trophy, while the 2011-12 campaign went down as another tie. And last season (2012-13), the Huskies took five of eight series points to engrave their name on the trophy once again.

If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup four times, St. Cloud has claimed the trophy twice, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup three times.

The teams will earn points toward the Challenge Cup this weekend in Grand Forks, but the winner of the trophy will not be determined until the teams meet in St. Cloud in late February and early March of next year.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com UND/SCSU fan social this Saturday, November 2nd from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. in the Muddy Rivers Ballroom (GuestHouse Inn and Suites near downtown Grand Forks). This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary appetizers, fabulous door prizes, and a fan bus to and from Ralph Engelstad Arena. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Check back on Friday for a full preview of this weekend’s game action.

#6 UND is still perched somewhat precariously high in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR), though can continue to stay there if they keep winning.

Follow-up on last week’s predictions

Let’s also take a look back at last week’s A first look at NCAA hockey PairWise Rankings (PWR). I observed (and the outcomes were) that:

• #4 Minnesota was secure in its PWR and that anything short of being swept would be unlikely to result in a drop. (Minnesota took 3 points and climbed to #2.)
• #7 UND was on a bit more of a cliff and had the potential to fall substantially if swept. (UND took 1 point and climbed to #6. Though well within the predicted range for being between 0 and 1 wins, UND came out near the top of the range because of an unlikely sweep of Denver by St. Cloud State, as further explained in this forum post.)
• #3 Quinnipiac was the real deal and would be well protected against sharp downward movement. (Despite not playing, Quinnipiac climbed to #1.)
• #6 Boston University was in an artificially high ranking and doomed to fall a bit when some inevitable losses came in. (BU fell to #13 after a pair of tough losses to Northeastern and Mass. Lowell.)

All-in-all, the predictions were pretty good. A little more information could have helped readers anticipate UND’s additional strength if St. Cloud St. swept, so I’ll try to include more of that sort of information. Otherwise, readers knew in advance of Minnesota’s and Quinnipiac’s strength and Boston University’s hidden weakness.

North Dakota this week

Currently ranked #6, UND continues to have significantly more downside than upside. A sweep is most likely to result in a rise of only one position (though staying #6 is also quite likely), whereas getting swept could result in a fall of up to around 10 positions.

Games that most affect UND’s PWR

Outcome	Average effect on UND’s PWR
UND over St. Cloud (2 of 2)	8.33
UND over St. Cloud (1 of 2)	5.73
Holy Cross over Bentley (2 of 2)	1.03
Holy Cross over Bentley (1 of 2)	0.80
Clarkson over Dartmouth	0.63
Alaska Anchorage over Wisconsin (2 of 2)	0.58
Northeastern over Mass.-Lowell (2 of 2)	0.54
Minnesota over MSU-Mankato (2 of 2)	0.52
Cornell over Yale	0.52
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth	0.50

UND comparisons most likely to flip

To figure out why those games matters takes some diving into North Dakota’s PWR comparisons.

Upside potential

• Cornell and/or Colgate wins over Yale could help UND take the comparison with Yale as TUC comes into play when Yale reaches 10 games vs. TUCs.

Downside potential

• A Bentley win over Holy Cross could knock Holy Cross out of consideration. This would considerably harm UND’s winning percentage vs. TUCs.
• A Clarkson win over Dartmouth would be enough to give Dartmouth the edge over UND’s current RPI. A St. Lawrence win over Dartmouth would have a slightly smaller effect.
• A pair of Wisconsin wins over Alaska Anchorage could be enough to take RPI and COP, and thus the comparison with UND.
• A Mass.-Lowell win over Northeastern would give Mass.-Lowell the edge over UND’s current RPI and the comparison with UND.

On the cliff

The two teams with the most lopsided downside vs. upside potential this week are Mass.-Lowell and North Dakota.

Team	Current PWR	Highest PWR with >1% chance	Lowest PWR with >1% chance
Mass.-Lowell	7	5	19
North Dakota	6	5	17

Having already beat to death why UND has little upside potential but high downside potential this week, let’s take a quick look at Mass.Lowell.

First, looking at Mass.-Lowell’s PWR comparisons, notice that they haven’t yet played enough teams under consideration for the TUC criterion to come into play. Northeastern, their only opponent this weekend, also isn’t a TUC so only some movement along the TUC line would bring this into play (and none is obvious).

Second, notice that of the first 7 comparisons Mass.-Lowell wins (Miami through St. Cloud St), 6 could easily be flipped to losses via RPI (the RPIs are within .01 and flipping them would flip the comparison).

Finally, the only obvious upside potential for Mass.-Lowell is taking the comparison with North Dakota if UND stumbles.

Other superlatives

But those aren’t the biggest potential movers of the weekend (again, only measuring outcomes with over a 1% likelihood).

Teams in the high teens, low twenties seem poised to make the biggest moves in either direction. #21 Ferris St. could fall between #12 and #30, #18 Alaska between #10 and #28, and #22 Cornell between #13 and #30.

But #9 Dartmouth has the largest one way (downside) potential, with the possibility of falling up to 13 spots to #22 if everything goes wrong.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

I’ve heard more talk this week about what the future holds for this rivalry than I have about this weekend’s games. And that’s not to say that the action on the ice at Mariucci isn’t important – because it is (and more on that in a moment) . It speaks more to how both fan bases want to see these games continue even as Minnesota moves to the Big Ten and North Dakota switches over to the NCHC.

As I sat at Xcel Energy Center last March during the Final Five and watched both halves of the same hockey game, I remarked that these two schools have got to find a way to continue playing each other. It’s important for both sides to put aside pride and personal politics and reach a schedule agreement, one that has each school traveling to the other at least once every four years. It’s good for the fans, it’s good for each program, and it’s good for the sport.

It’s also good for the players. It is my opinion that every four-year player at North Dakota and Minnesota should have the experience of playing in this rivalry, both home and away. So make it simple: keep the rivalry “on” for two seasons (with each school hosting one season and traveling the other), then “off” for two seasons.

It’s not enough to wait for the schools to meet in the NCAA tournament. Yes, we’ve had some thrilling NCAA games recently, but the two teams also went 25 years without meeting in the national tournament (1980-2004).

In 2005, UND defeated Minnesota in the Frozen Four semifinals, and North Dakota also claimed a 3-2 overtime victory over the Golden Gophers to advance to the 2007 Frozen Four. Don Lucia’s club turned the tables last season, ending UND’s season in the West Regional final.

It’s also difficult to wrap my head around the fact that this season’s WCHA Final Five will be the last as we know it. North Dakota has captured the last three Broadmoor trophies, but what fans of the Green and White will remember is last season’s semifinal against Minnesota, the “Timeout Game”. Gopher fans would prefer to dwell on Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner in the 2007 Final Five championship game. Either way, here’s hoping that the two clubs meet one last time on the ice at Xcel Energy Center this March.

And now, as promised, some thoughts on the games this weekend:

Both schools have posted excellent results lately, with identical 7-1-1 records over the past nine games. Minnesota’s play has been more consistent, however, while North Dakota showed defensive lapses over each of the past two weekends (vs. Holy Cross and Colorado College). UND will have to survive the first ten minutes, particularly on Friday night when emotions will be high and the Mariucci crowd (at least the ones who get there on time) will be in full throat. The Gophers have outscored opponents 33-13 in first periods this season, and a slow start will doom the team formerly known as the Fighting Sioux.

Minnesota goaltender Adam Wilcox has been outstanding between the pipes for Lucia and his squad. Wilcox is giving up well under two goals per contest and has notched three shutouts already. Most Most impressively, the freshman netminder stopped 32 of 33 Boston College shots in an 8-1 rout of the Eagles last month.

On the injury front, expect junior forward Erik Haula to return to the lineup for the Gophers after missing time with an injury to his hand. North Dakota appears to have everyone available except forward Derek Rodwell.

Minnesota is clipping along at 25 percent on the power play, so UND needs to play even strength for the majority of the weekend to take points away from Mariucci. North Dakota’s penalty kill has not been great (under 82 percent), and the Gophers draw a lot of penalties, particularly at home.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (14th season at Minnesota, 334-176-57, .639)
Pairwise Ranking: 4th
National Ranking: #1
This Season: 16-3-3 overall, 8-3-3 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 28-14-1 (NCAA Frozen Four Semifinalist), 20-8-0 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.82 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.82 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.0% (27 of 108)
Penalty Kill: 90.5% (67 of 74)

Key Players: Junior F Erik Haula (9-17-26), Sophomore F Kyle Rau (13-12-25), Junior F Nick Bjugstad (12-10-22), Junior D Nate Schmidt (3-19-22), Senior D Seth Helgeson (0-3-3), Freshman G Adam Wilcox (15-2-3, 1.65 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-112-33, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 13-6-3 overall, 8-3-3 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.45 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.1% (19 of 85)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (67 of 82)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (10-21-31), Senior F Danny Kristo (13-17-30), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (7-10-17), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-7-11), Sophomore D Nick Mattson (2-8-11), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-4-3, 2.28 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 25, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). In a rematch of the Final Five semifinal played nine days earlier, Minnesota got up by three goals once again. This time, however, the Gophers kept applying the pressure and punched their ticket to Tampa with a 5-2 victory over UND.

Last meeting at Mariucci: November 5, 2011 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota had a one goal lead with six minutes remaining, but Nick Larson and Kyle Rau both scored to lift Minnesota to a 3-2 victory and a series sweep of visiting North Dakota. The loss dropped UND to 3-6-1 overall and 1-5 in the WCHA.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 137-130-14 (.512), and boasts a 73-51-6 (.585) record in games played in Minneapolis.

Last ten: The Gophers have won six of the last ten meetings between the schools, outscoring UND 29-26 in those games.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 17-13-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. North Dakota has not lost an overtime game this season (2-0-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo (139 career points, the top active player in the NCAA) has eleven career points against Minnesota. Fellow senior Corban Knight (128 career points) is riding a 17 game point streak (8 goals and 21 assists in that span). In an effort to alleviate parking concerns, Minnesota fans are asked to park in St. Cloud and walk to Mariucci Arena.

The Prediction

As I said earlier, the start of each game will be critical. Minnesota is playing with a great deal of confidence, while North Dakota is coming in looking to find some consistency. The last time Dave Hakstol brought his team to Mariucci for a two game set, North Dakota scored a total of two goals. I see one close game and one Minnesota power play fest, with UND hoping for a split but possibly settling for less. UND 3-2, MN 5-1.

When North Dakota and Colorado College faced off in Colorado Springs earlier this season, UND carried the play for much of the weekend but needed some late-game heroics on Saturday night to salvage a series split.

UND’s overtime victory sent the teams in opposite directions: Colorado College has not won since (0-6-1), while North Dakota is undefeated (6-0-1). And there are two glaring reasons why the teams are worlds apart: special teams and goaltending.

Coming in to the home series against North Dakota, the Tigers were clipping along at almost 25 percent on the power play (11 of 45). Since then, they are a tepid 3 of 29 (10.3%). And the goaltending has not been there for Scott Owens’ squad, either. So far this season, both senior Joe Howe and junior Josh Thorimbert have shown extended periods of unsteady play.

On the North Dakota side, the same areas have made the difference. After rotating goaltenders for much of the first half of the season, Dave Hakstol went back to Clarke Saunders for Saturday’s rematch with CC. The junior netminder responded with a solid performance and has played every minute since. And after starting the year 8 for 53 (15.1%) with the man advantage, UND has converted 9 of its last 32 (28.1%).

North Dakota has two players with over 100 career points: senior forwards Danny Kristo (134, tops in the country) and Corban Knight (126). There are seven other players in all of college hockey to have accomplished that feat, and UND has already played against three of them, squaring off against St. Cloud State’s Drew LeBlanc (127), Notre Dame’s T.J. Tynan (110), and CC’s Rylan Schwartz, who is one behind Danny Kristo with 133 points.

With freshman forward Rocco Grimaldi returning from the World Juniors (with a gold medal), UND has an embarassment of riches at forward. Expect Brendan O’Donnell to sit in Friday’s opener, with Grimaldi playing with Carter Rowney and Drake Caggiula on the second line.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (14th season at CC, 307-197-45, .600)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 8-12-2 overall, 5-8-1 WCHA (t-9th)
Last Season: 18-16-2 overall, 15-12-1 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 3.36 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.73 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (14 of 74)
Penalty Kill: 76.8% (63 of 82)

Key Players: Senior F Rylan Schwartz (10-17-27), Senior F William Rapuzzi (11-15-26), Senior F Scott Winkler (10-10-20), Senior D Mike Boivin (9-9-18), Junior D Eamonn McDermott (2-12-14), Senior G Joe Howe (4-6-1, 3.50 GAA, .896 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 225-111-33, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 12-5-3 overall, 7-2-3 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.40 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.40 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (17 of 85)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (62 of 74)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (10-19-29), Senior F Danny Kristo (10-15-25), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (7-9-16), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (7-9-16), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-6-10), Sophomore D Nick Mattson (1-8-9), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-3-3, 2.17 GAA, .922 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 1, 2012 (Colorado Springs, CO). North Dakota was 13 seconds away from being swept out of World Arena when junior defenseman Dillon Simpson stepped in and knotted the contest at two goals apiece. Overtime would only last 51 seconds before freshman forward Drake Caggiula potted the game winning goal for UND.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 26, 2011. One night after North Dakota won a wild 7-6 contest (13 goals on only 41 shots), the teams got into a special teams battle, with UND prevailing 4-3. The two squads traded power play goals, with Danny Kristo’s shorthanded tally six minutes into the final frame holding up as the game winner for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 138-77-10 (.636), including a dominating 82-19-6 (.794) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 8-2-0 (.800) in the last ten meetings between the teams, including three straight home victories. UND has only outscored CC 39-30 over the last ten games, with seven of UND’s eight victories coming by a single goal.

Game News and Notes

Senior forward Corban Knight is UND’s candidate for college hockey’s Hobey Baker award. Knight is riding a fifteen game point streak, during which time the centerman has potted 8 goals and notched 19 assists. Colorado College head coach Scott Owens has led the Tigers to the NCAA tournament seven times in thirteen seasons, with one Frozen Four appearance. Dave Hakstol has advanced UND to the national tournament in each of his first eight seasons, including five Frozen Fours. North Dakota has ten players averaging a half point per game or more, led by Corban Knight (1.53) and Danny Kristo (1.39). By comparison, Colorado College has seven, with Rylan Schwartz (1.29) and William Rapuzzi (1.18) leading the charge.

The Prediction

I hear more people talking about UND vs. Minnesota than UND vs. Colorado College, but the players and coaching staffs will be ready for this weekend’s games. North Dakota has an edge everywhere on the ice, especially between the pipes where it matters most. It’s possible that the Tigers grab a point in Saturday’s rematch, but I’m giving both games to the Green and White. UND 5-2, 4-3.

Please join us for the UND/SCSU pre-game social, an annual event which provides an opportunity for fans of the University of North Dakota and St. Cloud State University to gather, celebrate the great sport of hockey, and view the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling trophy which is presented to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games between the schools. The teams split a November series in St. Cloud, so the Challenge Cup is on the line at the end of January.

This event will be held on Saturday, January 26th from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at Muddy Rivers Bar and Grill (inside the GuestHouse Inn and Suites) in downtown Grand Forks. Muddy Rivers is smoke-free, and the event is free and open to the public (due to the venue, guests must be 21 years of age or older). A free appetizer bar will be available, and a hockey bus will take fans to Ralph Engelstad Arena and back again after the game.

SiouxSports.com is the title sponsor for the event in Grand Forks, while the Center Ice Club (the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies) hosts the social in St. Cloud every year.

Other sponsors include:

AZSioux.com
Domino’s Pizza
Fargo Force
Happy Joe’s Pizza
Hickey Designs
Muddy Rivers Bar and Grill
Nature’s Country Store
Ralph Engelstad Arena
SiouxPride.com
University of North Dakota Bookstore
Vaaler Insurance
Valley Dairy

Fans of both teams enjoy the camaraderie at these social events and regularly comment that the connection between the two fan bases is among the best in college hockey.

Mark your calendars and join us for this event!

Holy Cross. Those two words evoke emotion, memories, laughter, and knowing glances. In my 30 years of watching UND hockey, there are a handful of “remember when” games; as in, “I will always remember where I was when….”

Holy Cross versus Minnesota (and subsequently, versus UND) during the 2006 West Regional held at Ralph Engelstad Arena fits the bill as one of those games (or, rather, one of those weekends) I will always remember. In the first NCAA regional hosted in Grand Forks under the current format, fans were pleased (and perhaps a little concerned) that Minnesota was placed in the same regional as the host, North Dakota. Also making an appearance would be the storied Michigan hockey team, and rounding out the bill would be… Holy Cross? A team UND had faced only once before? From Atlantic Hockey? Did they belong? Could they compete?

Holy Cross versus Minnesota wasn’t just a #1 vs. #4 matchup. Across all brackets, this was #2 vs. #15. Minnesota came in boasting a 27-8-5 record against the best competition in the country, while Holy Cross had collected 26 victories against the rest of Atlantic Hockey. The Crusaders knocked off American International, Connecticut, and Bentley (ever heard of them?) to earn an NCAA berth, while Minnesota had spent the previous weekend battling in the WCHA Final Five. It was clearly a Cinderella story, and the boys in purple blew the lid off Ralph Engelstad Arena with their performance.

But this current version of Holy Cross cannot be characterized as a young upstart any more. Head coach Paul Pearl has been behind the bench for the past 18 seasons, and his team is deep, experienced, and talented. The Crusaders’ top six forwards are upperclassmen, and they’re scoring in bunches. Holy Cross has scored four or more goals in a game seven times (out of sixteen contests) this season.

Pearl has his team playing smart hockey as well: Holy Cross averages just 8.4 penalty minutes per game, the fewest in the NCAA. The Crusaders are undefeated (5-0-0) when leading after two periods of play.

North Dakota’s number one forward line (Corban Knight centering Danny Kristo and Mark MacMillan) combined for 15 points in its last weekend of action at Michigan Tech, and Knight is riding a thirteen game point streak. It’s unclear whether UND head coach Dave Hakstol will shuffle the lines to pair Mark MacMillan with his older brother Mitch, who is finally eligible to suit up for the Green and White after transferring from St. Cloud State. The two had more than a little success the last time they played together, notching 87 goals and adding 86 assists in 59 games when both played for the Alberni Valley Bulldogs (BCHL).

UND will be without the services of freshman forward Rocco Grimaldi (7-9-16), who is representing Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championship in Ufa, Russia this weekend. That loss is offset by the arrival of the aforementioned Mitch MacMillan (transfer) as well as the return of sophomore forward Michael Parks (injury). Last season, Parks scored twelve goals and added ten assists while providing strength in the corners and an ability to get the puck to the net from anywhere on the ice.

Holy Cross Team Profile

Head Coach: Paul Pearl (18th season at Holy Cross, 273-261-65, .510)
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
National Ranking: #20
This Season: 10-4-2 overall, 6-3-2 Atlantic Hockey (t-2nd)
Last Season: 20-15-4 overall, 15-8-4 Atlantic Hockey (t-3rd)

Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (15 of 80)
Penalty Kill: 79.0% (49 of 62)

Key Players: Senior F Kyle Fletcher (7-9-16), Junior F Adam Schmidt (9-5-14), Senior F Brandon Nunn (7-5-12 in 8 games), Senior D Evan Zych (0-12-12), Sophomore D Nilan Nagy (1-5-6), Sophomore G Matt Ginn (9-3-2, 2.90 GAA, .909 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 223-111-33, .653)
Pairwise Ranking: 8th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 10-5-3 overall, 7-2-3 WCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.44 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.0% (12 of 75)
Penalty Kill: 85.3% (58 of 68)

Key Players: Senior F Danny Kristo (8-13-21), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (7-8-15), Senior F Corban Knight (8-15-23), Senior F Carter Rowney (5-6-11), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-6-10), Sophomore D Nick Mattson (1-7-8), Junior G Clarke Saunders (8-3-3, 2.19 GAA, .925 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 25, 2006 (Grand Forks, ND). In Dave Hakstol’s second year as head coach, UND advanced to its second consecutive Frozen Four with a 5-2 NCAA West Regional victory over the Holy Cross Crusaders. One night earlier, the Green and White handled Michigan 5-1 while the Crusaders toppled Minnesota in overtime. North Dakota forward Jonathan Toews notched a goal and two assists against Holy Cross and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.

Most Important Meeting: Both meetings between the teams have been important. In addition to the regional final at the Ralph in 2006, the teams also met in the NCAA regionals in 2004 (Colorado Springs, CO). This time, it was Dean Blais (in his final season) coaching North Dakota, and UND scored once in each period to dispatch the Crusaders 3-0. Zach Parise and Brandon Bochenski lead the charge for the Green and White, who would fall to Denver 1-0 one night later, one game short of the Frozen Four.

All-time Series: The teams have only met twice, with North Dakota winning both games by a combined score of 8-2. And how’s that for curious? Holy Cross has made the NCAA tournament twice in program history, and both times came up against UND.

Game News and Notes

Despite coaching only nine seasons to Paul Pearl’s eighteen behind the Holy Cross bench, North Dakota’s Dave Hakstol is only 50 victories behind Pearl in the win column. Holy Cross sophomore netminder Matt Ginn has started all but two of the Crusaders’ games this season. During UND forward Corban Knight’s current thirteen game point streak, the senior has potted six goals and notched fifteen assists. Linemate Danny Kristo is tied for the active scoring lead among all men’s Division 1 hockey players with 130 points, with Knight close behind with 120.

The Prediction

UND should win both games this weekend, but it won’t be easy. Saturday’s rematch will be particularly difficult, as half of the North Dakota fans will be wearing (or at least thinking) purple in honor of the Minnesota Vikings playoff rematch with the Green Bay Packers. Both sides might get confused at the (seemingly) random cheering, as most in attendance will be just as excited about touchdowns as lamp-lighters. In any event, North Dakota carries the day, with Saturday’s contest going down to the wire. UND 4-2, 4-3.