Sioux Sports Talk

At the beginning of the season, Miami was #1 in the national polls and expected to finish first in the inaugural season of the NCHC. The RedHawks returned Ryan McKay between the pipes (1.39 GAA, .946 SV%, 4 SO in 2012-13) and a pair of high-flying forwards in Riley Barber and Austin Czarnik, who tallied 79 points in 82 combined games last season.

Looking at Enrico Blasi’s squad this year, Barber and Czarnik are exceptional once again, with 70 points through their first 51 combined games. And McKay has been good but not great, sporting a 2.69 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage with three shutouts.

That difference in goaltending has been the story. Last season, Miami was 8-5 in one-goal games. This year, the RedHawks are 0-6 in nailbiters, including four conference losses by a single goal.

By contrast, North Dakota is 5-1 in one-goal games, including a 4-1 record in tight NCHC contests.

The other surprise is that Miami is just 6-6-1 at home this season after a sparkling 14-3-3 mark at Steve Cady Arena (Oxford, OH) a year ago. Perhaps the weight of all those preseason expectations has the RedHawks squeezing the stick a bit too tight in front of the home fans.

After posting eight consecutive 20-win seasons (including 33 victories in 2007-08), Blasi is stuck on ten victories with only eight regular season games remaining on the schedule. The RedHawks already have more losses this season (13) than all of last year, when Mami finished with a 25-12-5 record.

To put all of this in perspective, if those one-goal games had gone the other way, Miami would be sitting at 16-7-3 overall and 8-7-1-1 in the NCHC, right in the thick of the race for home ice.

UND is 9-5-1 at Ralph Engelstad Arena this season, with two home sweeps (Northern Michigan and Colorado College) to its credit. As Jim Dahl explains here, anything worse than a sweep this weekend will do more harm to North Dakota’s Pairwise ranking.

But a sweep this weekend will not be easy. Miami is fighting to stay out of the NCHC cellar and is hoping to get on a run that will lead them to the NCHC tournament and back to the NCAAs.

On the injury front, North Dakota may once again be without the services of sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%). Gothberg sustained an injury in practice in late January and has not appeared in a game since. In his absence, senior netminder Clarke Saunders (4-4-0, 3.36 GAA, .901 SV% in eleven appearances) will need to be sharp, particularly when Miami is on the power play.

Miami Team Profile

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (15th season at Miami, 321-209-56, .596)

Pairwise Ranking: t-35th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 10-13-3 overall, 4-11-1-1 NCHC (t-7th)
Last Season: 25-12-5 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 17-7-4-4 CCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.08 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.85 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (25 of 126)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (99 of 121)

Key players: Sophomore F Riley Barber (17-19-36), Junior F Austin Czarnik (10-24-34), Sophomore F Sean Kuraly (6-12-18), Sophomore D Matthew Caito (3-10-13), Sophomore G Ryan McKay (6-8-3, 2.69 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 249-128-40, .645)

Pairwise Ranking: 18th
National Ranking: #17
This Season: 14-9-3 overall, 9-7-0-0 NCHC (t-3rd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.81 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.8% (20 of 119)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (103 of 126)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (10-12-22), Sophomore F Michael Parks (8-13-21), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (7-8-15), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-11-16), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (3-12-15), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 19, 2013 (Oxford, OH). Miami junior forward Blake Coleman netted a hat trick for the homestanding RedHawks, who stormed to a 5-0 lead early in the second period before cruising to a 6-2 victory. Coleman was issued a game misconduct in Friday’s opener, which North Dakota won 4-2.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 28, 2009 (Subway Holiday Classic). In the teams’ first and only meeting at Ralph Engelstad Arena, the two powerhouses skated to a 5-5 draw. Miami came back from a two goal deficit in the third period, with RedHawks forward Reilly Smith (2g, 1a) scoring the equalizer with under three minutes remaining to earn the tie. Freshman forward Danny Kristo scored two goals and added an assist and was named the tournament MVP after a four point weekend. Both teams came in to the contest allowing under two goals per game.

Most Important Meeting: The most important meeting is the one about to be played. If UND doesn’t sweep the RedHawks this weekend, they may have to win the conference tournament to receive a bid to the NCAA’s.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 3-1-1, with UND outscoring the RedHawks 19-15 over that span. One of those victories came at the Badger Showdown (Milwaukee, WI) in December 1999 when Dean Blais was still behind the North Dakota bench.

Game News and Notes

Miami has just one win in its last ten games, a 6-1 rout of Colorado College. The RedHawks also lost an exhibition match against the U.S. Under-18 team during that time. Clarke Saunders started two games for Alabama-Huntsville against Miami in February 2012, stopping 73 of 80 shots in a pair of losses. And back in October 2013, Saunders came on in relief of Zane Gothberg in Saturday’s loss, stopping 23 of 25 shots he faced. UND coach Dave Hakstol’s next victory will be the 250th win of his head coaching career. UND is 9-8-1 all time on Valentine’s Day.

Special Note

Friday night’s opener will begin at 7:38 p.m. Central due to the CBS Sports Network broadcast of the game. The game tickets for Friday night, which were printed prior to the 2013-14 television scheduled being released, incorrectly indicate a 7 p.m. start time.

The Prediction

Miami is a better team than their record indicates, and Ryan McKay can definitely steal a game for the RedHawks. That being said, look for UND to click on the power play early and often and cruise on Saturday after winning a thriller on Friday night. UND 4-3, 5-2.

North Dakota was idle last weekend but is coming off of a loss at Denver on January 25th. The Green and White have not lost consecutive games since November 16th (vs. Minnesota-Duluth) and 22nd (at Boston University). UND has only played three home games since December 14th but will play six of its final ten NCHC contests at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

Nebraska-Omaha is currently tied for second place in the NCHC with North Dakota and Denver. The Pioneers travel to St. Cloud this weekend to face the league-leading Huskies of SCSU.

UNO played a pair of wild home games against St. Cloud State last weekend, losing 5-3 on Friday and winning 8-6 on Saturday.

Dean Blais’ squad has a distinct North Dakota feel to it, with two forwards named Archibald and Zombo on the ice. UND fans may remember their dads, Jim Archibald and Rick Zombo, who wore the green and white during Blais’ tenure in Grand Forks. The younger Archibald (Josh) leads the team in points (18-10-28), while Dominic Zombo has chipped in twelve goals and eight assists in 24 games for the Mavericks, including a hat trick last Saturday night.

Both squads figure to be in the mix for the league title, and these two games are critical. After this weekend, North Dakota will host Miami and travel to Duluth and St. Cloud State before hosting Western Michigan on the final weekend of the regular season. UNO will host Denver, head to Western Michigan, host Colorado College, and play at Minnesota-Duluth.

On the injury front, North Dakota is once again without the services of sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%). Gothberg sustained an injury in practice in late January and did not travel with the team to Denver. A timetable for his recovery is uncertain. In his absence, senior netminder Clarke Saunders (3-3-0, 3.18 GAA, .907 SV% in nine appearances) will need to be sharp against the offensive minded Mavericks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (5th season at UNO, 84-80-18, .511)

Pairwise Ranking: t-29th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 10-12-2 overall, 7-5-2-1 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 19-18-2 overall, 14-12-2 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.2% (24 of 125)
Penalty Kill: 76.0% (98 of 129)

Key Players: Junior F Josh Archibald (18-20-28), Senior F Ryan Walters (5-18-23), Junior F Dominic Zombo (12-8-20), Freshman D Ian Brady (4-11-15), Senior D Michael Young (0-13-13), Junior G Ryan Massa (6-5-1, 3.01 GAA, .887 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 248-127-40, .646)

Pairwise Ranking: 15th
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 13-8-3 overall, 8-6-0-0 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (20 of 109)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (97 of 119)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (9-12-21), Sophomore F Michael Parks (7-10-17), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (6-7-13), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-9-14), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (2-11-13), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers:

Last meeting: November 10, 2013 (Omaha, NE). One night after falling 4-2 to the homestanding Mavericks, UND used second period goals from Michael Parks and Drake Caggiula and earned a split with a 3-2 victory. Clarke Saunders made 36 saves for North Dakota.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: December 10, 2011. Danny Kristo scored a goal on the first shift of the third period and Aaron Dell stopped all 26 shots he faced as North Dakota won a tight 1-0 contest. UNO won Friday’s opener 2-1 in overtime on Ryan Walters’ breakaway goal.

Most important meeting: The two teams have only met ten times (with UND holding a 6-4 advantage, outscoring UNO 29-26). With the NCHC league race tightening, I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Last ten: Six of the ten games in the all-time series have been decided by a single goal, including four of the last six. Both teams have won two of the four meetings in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais is 2-2 lifetime on the visitors’ bench at Ralph Engelstad Arena, splitting WCHA series in January and December 2011. Blais, who was the head coach at UND from 1994-2004, collected 262 victories at North Dakota and led the school to national titles in 1997 and 2000. North Dakota is 9-1-1 in its last 11 games. UND senior goaltender Clarke Saunders has made five career starts against the Mavericks, stopping 214 of 228 shots for three victories and a .939 save percentage.

The Prediction

Duluth is the only NCHC team to have swept UNO this season, and I’m having a hard time convincing myself that UND will be able to outscore the Mavs twice, particularly since North Dakota was blanked in its last outing and has scored only nine goals in its last four games. I think one game gets out of hand this weekend, but Hakstol’s crew locks it down to earn the split. UNO 5-3, UND 3-2.

Last season, Denver lost a home league playoff series to rival Colorado College, missed out on the WCHA Final Five, and subsequently fired longtime head coach George Gwozdecky, he of the twelve straight 20+ win seasons, twelve NCAA tournament appearances, three MacNaughton Cups (WCHA regular season champion), four Broadmoor trophies (WCHA playoff champion), 443 career coaching victories at DU, and two national championships.

Not to mention all those dasher dances and temper tantrums.

Jim Montgomery is the new man behind the Denver bench, and despite not having coached at the NCAA level before, Montgomery has the Pios in position for a league title and a shot at an NCAA tournament bid. With all eight teams having played the same number of league games, DU is currently tied for second place (along with North Dakota and Nebraska-Omaha ), two points back of St. Cloud State. SCSU is competing in the North Star College Cup (a non-conference tournament with Minnesota, Minnesota State, and Minnesota-Duluth), while UNO is idle this weekend.

In the NCHC, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota will be at the top of the league rivalries, and despite the two not having played yet this season, the schools clearly do not like each other. The feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that game (a Denver victory), the two teams have met six times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has won the last four playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012) and the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four.

Both schools seem to get hit by the “early departure” bug each off-season. Over the last two years, North Dakota has had three players leave early. After the 2011-12 season, forward Brock Nelson (36-32-68 in 84 games) left after his sophomore campaign and goaltender Aaron Dell (49-20-5, 2.15 GAA, .912 SV%, 9 SO) gave up his final season of eligibility. And last year, defenseman Derek Forbort (6-39-45 in 115 games) signed after his junior season.

On the Denver side of the ledger, three Pioneers opted not to return after EACH of the last two seasons. Following the 2011-12 campaign, Drew Shore (50-68-118 in 123 games) gave up his senior season, while fellow forwards Jason Zucker (45-46-91 in 78 games) and Beau Bennett (13-25-38 in 47 games) left two years of eligibility on the table. And after last season, the Pios lost junior forward Nick Shore (34-59-93 in 116 games), sophomore defenseman Scott Mayfield (7-22-29 and 192 PIM in 81 games), and sophomore netminder Juho Olkinuora (22-14-8, 2.27 GAA, .926 SV%, 5 SO).

After struggling through his junior season and ultimately losing the job to Olkinhuora, DU senior goaltender Sam Brittain is looking more and more like his old self this year:

Last season (2012-13): 5-7-0 record, 2.95 goals-against average, .907 save percentage, 0 shutouts
This season (2013-14): 12-6-5 record, 1.95 goals-against average, .935 save percentage, 3 shutouts

Just when North Dakota was getting healthy up front, sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg sustained an injury in practice and will be out indefinitely. Senior netminder Clarke Saunders will have to fill in during Gothberg’s absence. Saunders, who has been suspect at times this season (2-2-0, 3.60 GAA, .900 SV%), does have the ability to steal a game. Last season, the transfer from Alabama-Huntsville posted a record of 13-9-4 with a goals-against average of 2.30, a save percentage of .917, and two shutouts.

It’s a very small sample size, but Gothberg was awful in his only career start against Denver, allowing three goals on 22 shots (including two goals 25 seconds apart) before being pulled early in the second period. Saunders, on the other hand, is 3-2-1 with a 2.83 GAA and a .904 SV% in six appearances versus the Pios.

Saunders will have to be on his game if UND hopes to keep its nine game unbeaten streak (8-0-1) alive. Over that stretch, North Dakota has outscored opponents 29-16. By comparison, over its last nine games, Denver is just 4-2-3 while scoring 26 goals and allowing 24.

North Dakota senior defenseman Dillon Simpson is being promoted as a Hobey Baker candidate, but second-year blueliner Jordan Schmaltz (Simpson’s defensive partner) stands out to me. In my opinion, he is more of a flight risk than fellow sophomore Rocco Grimaldi, who leads the Green and White with 20 points in 22 games played.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: Jim Montgomery (1st season at DU, 12-7-5, .604)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 12-7-5 overall, 6-4-2-1 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 20-14-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional Semifinalist), 14-9-5 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 2.62 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.9% (24 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 88.6% (101 of 114)

Key Players: Freshman F Trevor Moore (9-10-19), Sophomore F Quentin Shore (6-13-19), Junior F Ty Loney (5-9-14), Junior D Joey LaLeggia (9-9-18), Senior D David Makowski (8-9-17), Senior G Sam Brittain (12-6-5, 1.95 GAA, .935 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 247-126-40, .646)

Pairwise Ranking: 18th
National Ranking: #18
This Season: 12-7-3 overall, 7-5-0-0 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.73 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (18 of 99)
Penalty Kill: 82.1% (87 of 106)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (8-12-20), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (5-7-12), Sophomore F Michael Parks (6-9-15), Senior D Dillon Simpson (4-9-13), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (2-10-12), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 23, 2013 (Denver, CO). After spotting the Pioneers a goal midway through the opening frame, North Dakota erupted for three first period goals and crushed Denver 6-1. Six different players scored for UND, and Denver starting goaltender Juho Olkinuora was pulled after allowing three goals on the first eight shots he faced. DU won Friday’s opener, 5-4.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. And two seasons ago, North Dakota defeated Denver in the WCHA Final Five championship game.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota has had the better of it lately, going 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the schools and outscoring Denver 38-25 over that span. The two teams have also met twice in the WCHA Final Five (St. Paul) and once in the NCAA regionals during this most recent stretch, with UND winning all three of those games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 137-117-9 (.538), but the Pioneers hold a 68-51-3 (.570) record in game played at altitude.

Game News and Notes

Three North Dakota players have scored seven career points against the Pios, with forward Rocco Grimaldi leading the charge (three goals, four assists in four games played). Forward Mark MacMillan (seven games) and defenseman Dillon Simpson (ten games) each have two goals and five assists against DU. Friday’s game will be televised on CBS College Sports, while Saturday’s rematch can be seen on Root Sports Rocky Mountain. Former Denver coach George Gwozdecky is expected to be in attendance at tonight’s opener and just might make an appearance on the Magness Arena “Dasher Dance Cam”.

The Prediction

This feels like the end of the line for UND’s unbeaten streak. Denver is in a similar position to North Dakota, with the league race and NCAA tournament hopes on the line. With so much riding on this series, a split is the most likely result. I’ll take the home team in a close one on Friday, with UND rebounding on Saturday to keep both teams’ title hopes alive. DU 3-1, UND 3-2.

Bemidji State is very happy with the new-look WCHA. One year after half of the league bolted for greener pastures, the Beavers find themselves in the top half of the league standings. BSU has already collected seven conference wins this season after stumbling to 11th place in the WCHA last year with a 5-16-7 league record.

North Dakota’s current seven game winning streak has UND in second place in the NCHC and in a position to make a run at St. Cloud State for the league title. Dave Hakstol’s squad is still on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament field, but the prospects are brighter than they were when the team was sitting at 4-7-2.

Tom Serratore’s Beavers collected a huge 1-0 victory the last time North Dakota visited the BREC, and if BSU is to repeat that accomplishment this weekend, goaltending is the key. Junior netminder Andrew Walsh had been getting the bulk of the minutes for Bemidji State, but his numbers (5-9-3, 2.99 GAA, .903 SV%) don’t exactly inspire confidence.

Enter freshman Jesse Wilkins. In less than six games’ worth of action, the rookie is 2-1-3 with a 2.28 goals-against average and a .935 save percentage.

For UND, little things have been making a difference. The team is finally healthy and getting contributions up and down the lineup. Sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg has locked down the #1 job. And despite a letdown against the Colorado College power play last weekend, special teams play has been good enough to win most nights.

The teams will play a home and home series this weekend, with UND traveling to Bemidji for Friday’s opener before returning to Grand Forks to host the Beavers on Saturday night.

These games are critical for North Dakota’s postseason aspirations. UND currently sports a 4-2-2 record in non-conference play, and considering the NCHC’s abysmal non-conference record overall, will need at least a split on the weekend to avoid dropping out of the tournament picture.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (13th season at BSU, 208-197-55 .512)

Pairwise Ranking: 36th (tie)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 7-11-6 overall, 7-7-4 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 6-22-8 overall, 5-16-7 WCHA (11th)

Team Offense: 2.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.04 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.9% (19 of 106)
Penalty Kill: 86.5% (96 of 111)

Key Players: Sophomore F Cory Ward (12-8-20), Sophomore F Markus Gerbrandt (11-6-7), Junior F Danny Mattson (3-11-14), Junior D Matt Prapavessis (5-12-17), Sophomore D Graeme McCormack (1-12-13), Freshman G Jesse Wilkins (2-1-3, 2.28 GAA, .935 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 246-126-39, .646)

Pairwise Ranking: 19th (tie)
National Ranking: #20
This Season: 11-7-2 overall, 7-5-0 NCHC (2nd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.90 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.85 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (18 of 91)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (81 of 99)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (7-12-19), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (5-6-11), Sophomore F Michael Parks (5-9-14), Senior D Dillon Simpson (4-9-13), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (2-9-11), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (9-5-2, 2.38 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 2nd, 2013 (Grand Forks, ND). UND’s Jordan Schmaltz potted the tying goal with under twelve minutes to play as North Dakota salvaged a 2-2 tie with visiting Bemidji State. North Dakota had 80 shot attempts, but the Beavers blocked 28 shots and BSU goaltender Andrew Walsh stopped 28 of the 30 pucks he faced. UND won the series opener 4-2.

Last Meeting in Bemidji: November 20th, 2011. With a 1-0 victory, the Beavers defeated North Dakota for just the second time in program history (and first since 1970). BSU’s Jordan George scored the game’s only goal after UND’s Andrew MacWilliam and Mark MacMillan both took penalties on the same play. George’s five-on-three tally was Bemidji State’s first power play goal in seven games.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 8-1-1 (.850) in the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring the Beavers 39-18 over that stretch of games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 25-2-2 (.897), including an 8-1-0 (.889) record in games played in Bemidji. BSU’s two victories over North Dakota came 41 years apart (1970 and 2011).

Game News and Notes

Bemidji State is just 3-8-3 on home ice this season. Junior forward Mark MacMillan leads UND with eight points in six career games against the Beavers. BSU swept Lake Superior State last weekend, while North Dakota did the same to Colorado College.

The Prediction

UND will have a difficult time finding space in Friday’s opener, but will play well enough to earn a point. Saturday’s rematch will be all North Dakota. 2-2 tie, UND 4-1.