Sioux Sports Talk

Here’s what I wrote back in early December before North Dakota and Western Michigan faced off in Kalamazoo, Michigan:

“Only five wins overall. Five losses in eight conference games. Unranked and on the outside looking in. That’s the situation facing Dave Hakstol and the UND men’s hockey team as they travel to Kalamazoo, Michigan to take on Andy Murray and the Western Michigan Broncos. North Dakota can’t afford too many more conference losses if it expects to host the first round of the league playoffs for the eleventh consecutive year. The only other team with as many conference losses is Colorado College (1-5-2-1 NCHC, 1-10-2 overall), and I’m certain that UND does not want to be mentioned in that company this season.”

What a difference three months makes.

Since I wrote those words, UND is 14-3-1 and has outscored opponents 64-38. Dave Hakstol’s squad, once scratching and clawing to secure home ice and a spot in the top 15 of the Pairwise rankings, now finds itself at #9 in the Pairwise with home ice secured for the first round of the NCHC playoffs and tied for first place in the race for the inaugural Penrose Cup.

Over that same stretch, North Dakota sophomore netminder Zane Gothberg has been virtually unbeatable, compiling a record of 11-1-1 with a goals-against average of 1.68 and a save percentage of .922 with one shutout. Gothberg has allowed more than two goals only once over that span, a 5-3 road victory over Colorado College.

Andy Murray, formerly head coach of the NHL’s Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues, is hoping to get his squad back to the NCAA tournament after a disappointing bubble last season. WMU finished at 19-11-8 last year, narrowly missing the big dance. The Broncos are led up front by senior forwards Shane Berschbach (14-21-35) and Chase Balisy (12-21-33) and junior forward Justin Kovacs (12-18-30).

By comparison, North Dakota has just one forward (Rocco Grimaldi) with 30 or more points this season.

Western Michigan goaltender Frank Slubowski, who was so good in the early going, has just four wins since November 30th. Here are his first half/second half splits:

October 2013 – November 2013: 5-4-3, 2.23 goals-against average, .925 save percentage
December 2013 – February 2014: 4-4-0, 3.42 goals-against average, .891 save percentage

Slubowski’s subpar second half has opened the door for sophomore netminder Lukas Hafner to appear in 18 games (many in relief), and Hafner has delivered a record of 7-5-2 with a goals-against average of 2.14, a save percentage of .920, and two shutouts. Expect both Slubowski and Hafner to see game action this weekend in Grand Forks.

Dave Hakstol’s crew has been getting it done with balanced scoring. Nine UND players have collected more than a half point per game this season, including three defensemen. Eleven North Dakota skaters have amassed ten or more points in 2013-14, with three more players within two points of double digits.

Production from the blue line has been a theme for the Green and White this season. The top six UND blueliners have collected 23 goals and 64 assists (87 points) as a unit, while Western Michigan defensemen can claim 11 goals and 46 assists (57 points).

Specialty teams continues to be an area of concern for Andy Murray’s Broncos. WMU has converted only 12.3 percent of man advantage situations this season and currently sits at a -9 (20 power play goals scored, 29 power play goals allowed). North Dakota is clicking at 18.8% with the man advantage, and is a +1 combined (27 power play goals scored, 26 power play goals allowed).

The other key factor is that Western Michigan has already had 183 shorthanded situations this season compared to just 162 power plays. North Dakota has been called upon to kill 149 penalties and has had 144 power plays this year.

Going in to the final weekend of league play, North Dakota (42 league points) is battling with St. Cloud State (42 points) and Nebraska-Omaha (39 points) to claim the first-ever NCHC regular season title. Western Michigan (34 points), Minnesota-Duluth (34 points), and Denver (32 points) can all claim home ice for the first round of the league playoffs, while Colorado College and Miami are settled into 7th and 8th place, respectively.

Here’s the schedule for the final weekend in the NCHC:

Western Michigan at North Dakota
St. Cloud State at Colorado College
Nebraska-Omaha at Minnesota-Duluth
Miami at Denver

For those of you wondering about the possibility of an on-ice trophy presentation in one rink or another this weekend, there is an interesting article here detailing the travel plans of not one but two Penrose Cups.

Western Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: (Andy Murray, 3rd season at WMU, 56-38-19, .580)

Pairwise Ranking: 21st (tie)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 16-13-5 overall, 10-10-2 NCHC (t-4th)
Last Season: 19-11-8 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 15-7-6-3 CCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.68 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.3% (20 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (154 of 183)

Key Players: Senior F Shane Berschbach (14-21-35), Junior F Justin Kovacs (12-18-30), Senior F Chase Balisy (12-21-33), Sophomore D Kenney Morrison (3-15-18), Junior D Jordan Oesterle (2-12-14), Sophomore G Lukas Hafner (7-5-2, 2.14 GAA, .920 GAA, 2 shutouts)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 254-129-40, .648)

Pairwise Ranking: 9th
National Ranking: #9
This Season: 19-10-3 overall, 14-8-0-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.16 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (27 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (123 of 149)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-18-31), Sophomore F Michael Parks (10-17-27), Junior F Mark MacMillan (9-11-20), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (9-10-19), Senior D Dillon Simpson (7-14-21), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (4-16-20), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (14-6-3, 2.11 GAA, .922 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 7, 2013 (Kalamazoo, MI). WMU netminder Frank Slubowski gave up three goals on thirteen shots before being pulled early in the second period and North Dakota held on for a 3-2 road victory. Western Michigan, which outshot UND 25-16, collected two power play goals on six attempts. The Green and White also won Friday’s opener by a 3-2 score.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 1998. One night after dismantling the Broncos 12-5, the Fighting Sioux played it a bit closer to the vest in a 5-1 triumph. That North Dakota team, one year removed from a national championship, would lose only eight games on the season but would fall one game short of the Frozen Four in Boston, Massachusetts.

Most Important Meeting: March 24, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota upended Western Michigan 3-1 in the NCAA West Regional semifinal. Brock Nelson had two points, including an empty net goal with 25 seconds remaining that sent UND to the regional finals against Minnesota. Aaron Dell made 24 saves for the Green and White.

All-time Series: UND has won all seven meetings between the schools, outscoring the Broncos 37-17. The teams first met in 1997.

Game News and Notes

WMU head coach Andy Murray is in his third season behind the Bronco bench; Murray’s son, Brady, played for the Fighting Sioux from 2003-05. Western Michigan finished third in the last season of the CCHA, while North Dakota finished third in the last season of the WCHA as we knew it. UND is 9-3-0 (.750) this season when the opponent scores first. Both teams play on the narrower NHL ice surface (85 x 200 feet).

The Prediction

The first two games of this series went North Dakota’s way by identical 3-2 scores. UND has more firepower and a healthy lineup this time around, and Western Michigan is a bit shakier in net but can also score in bunches. I’ve got the Green and White winning two close games, with Saturday’s rematch a bit more wide open. UND 3-2, 4-3.

The last time these two teams met, North Dakota was ranked #5 on the young season and St. Cloud State came in to Grand Forks ranked #9 after coming off of the most successful season in program history. In 2012-13, the Huskies posted a 25-win season, claimed a share of the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA co-champions, and earned a berth in the NCAA Frozen Four (falling to Quinnipiac in the semifinals). As icing on the cake, senior forward Drew LeBlanc brought home the program’s first Hobey Baker Memorial Award.

On that November weekend in Grand Forks, SCSU swept the Green and White 3-2 and 3-1. The sweep propelled the Huskies to a 6-1-1 November record, and Bob Motzko’s squad followed that up with a 2-1-1 mark in the month of December. Since that time, however, St. Cloud has gone just 7-5-2.

UND moved in an opposite direction after that early season series. Those two losses were part of a dismal 3-6-1 November record, but the boys from Grand Forks have righted the ship since then. A December mark of 4-0-0 got things turned around, and they followed that up with a 4-1-1 January record. Coming in to this weekend’s series, North Dakota has gone 5-1-0 in the month of February and is 14-2-1 (.853) in its last 17 games.

By contrast, St. Cloud State has a record of 8-6-3 (.559) over its past 17 contests.

This weekend, the rankings are reversed. The Huskies are #5 in the polls and the Pairwise, while North Dakota has vaulted up to #10. The two teams are tied for first place in the NCHC with two weekends remaining in the season. After this weekend in St. Cloud, UND hosts Western Michigan in the final regular season series before the playoffs begin, while SCSU travels to Colorado Springs to take on the Tigers of Colorado College.

North Dakota and St. Cloud State have been paired up as schedule partners and rivals since the 2002-03 season. Two years later, the Center Ice Club created a commemorative trophy to mark the rivalry, and the two teams have been battling it out four times each season to claim the Challenge Cup.

Since that time, UND has had the better of the play, both at home (9-7-4 in the Challenge Cup era) and in St. Cloud (9-6-3). North Dakota has claimed the Cup four times, the teams have shared the trophy three times, and the Huskies won the trophy outright last season and back in 2005-06.

St. Cloud State has already clinched a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup for 2013-14, and needs to pick up one point this weekend to win the trophy outright.

North Dakota comes in blazing hot but will need to contend with a Huskies squad that has converted over 25 percent of its power plays on the season. St. Cloud is very adept at using the wider Olympic ice sheet, particularly with the man advantage.

SCSU will be without the services of defenseman Andrew Prochno this weekend. The junior from Minnetonka, Minnesota is tied for the team lead in points by a defenseman with 19 (3 goals, 16 assists, 16 penalty minutes in 30 games played). The Huskies have been rotating freshman Ben Storm (0-1-1 in 24 games) and juniors Tim Daly (1-3-4 in 24 games) and Jarrod Rabey (0-2-2 in 15 games) through two spots on the blueline, but all three will be in the lineup for this pivotal NCHC showdown.

Speaking of the blue line, North Dakota boasts the top scoring d-corps in the nation (2.93 points/game). Senior Dillon Simpson (7-13-20) and sophomore Jordan Schmaltz (4-15-19) have led the charge, but junior Nick Mattson (3-12-15) has provided some jump, and the four freshman defenseman (Gage Ausmus, Paul LaDue, Troy Stecher, and Keaton Thompson) have chipped in for 11 goals and 21 assists.

That’s a total of 23 goals and 60 assists (83 points) from the top six North Dakota defenseman.

By comparison, the six SCSU blueliners expected to be in the lineup this weekend have combined for 11 goals and 39 assists for 50 points.

Since becoming the full-time starter on November 30th, UND netminder Zane Gothberg (Thief River Falls, MN) has put up eye-popping numbers: an 11-0-1 record, a 1.37 goals-against average, a save percentage of 93.8%, and the first shutout of his young college career. Gothberg has only given up more than two goals once over that stretch, a 5-3 victory at Colorado College.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 9th season at SCSU, 180-132-40, .568)

Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 18-7-5 overall, 12-5-3-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 25-16-1 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-9-1 WCHA (t-1st)

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.2% (30 of 119)
Penalty Kill: 77.5% (79 of 102)

Key Players: Senior F Nic Dowd (18-15-33), Sophomore F Jonny Brodzinski (16-17-33), Sophomore F Kalle Kossila (12-17-29), Junior D Andrew Prochno (3-16-19), Sophomore D Ethan Prow (4-15-19), Junior G Ryan Faragher (16-6-4, 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 253-128-40, .648)

Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #10
This Season: 18-9-3 overall, 13-7-0-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.63 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.3% (27 of 140)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (116 of 141)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (12-17-29), Sophomore F Michael Parks (10-16-26), Junior F Mark MacMillan (8-10-18), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (8-10-18), Senior D Dillon Simpson (7-13-20), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (4-15-19), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (13-5-3, 2.12 GAA, .922 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 2, 2013 (Grand Forks, ND). Nic Dowd picked up a goal and an assist to help the Huskies sweep homestanding North Dakota 3-1. SCSU did an excellent job of blocking shots, allowing only 17 shots on goal. St. Cloud, which won Friday’s opener 3-2, became the first team to sweep UND at Ralph Engelstad Arena since Denver turned that trick in January 2010.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: November 10, 2012. One night after Clarke Saunders stopped all 32 shots he faced in a 3-0 UND victory, St. Cloud State scored five times on 37 shots in a 5-2 contest to claim the split. Senior forward Drew LeBlanc scored twice and added an assist for the Huskies, who drew even in the race for the 2012-2013 Challenge Cup.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

Second Most Important Meeting: February 28, 2014. With everything on the line this weekend, the two teams should be ready to leave it all on the ice.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 60-35-12 (.617), including a 24-18-6 (.563) mark in games played in St. Cloud.

Last Ten: St. Cloud holds a slight 5-4-1 (.550) edge in the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring UND 23-22 over that span.

Game News and Notes

St. Cloud State is unbeaten (4-0-1) in the last five meetings between the schools. UND was a perfect 9-for-9 on the penalty kill last Saturday at Minnesota-Duluth. The Spencer Penrose Cup (awarded to the NCHC regular season champion) will be in St. Cloud this weekend. North Dakota has the top scoring defensive corps in the nation (26-62-88 in 30 games; 2.93 points/game). Friday’s opener can be seen on CBS Sports Network, with a puck drop of 8:07 p.m.

The Prediction

If these games were held on the smaller ice sheet this weekend, given the way these two teams are playing, I would lean toward giving UND a win and a tie. But St. Cloud State knows how to use the home crowd and the wider ice surface, and a split seems almost inevitable. UND 3-1, SCSU 4-2.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the St. Cloud State hockey fans. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. on the second floor of Brother’s Bar and Grill in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, enjoy a free appetizer bar, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to the public.

North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol’s teams have earned a reputation as second-half squads. In Hakstol’s ten years behind the bench, his winning percentage has been significantly better once the calendar turns to the new year. Why does UND seem to surge in the second half? Are there other factors that contribute to early-season struggles? And what should we expect from this year’s team down the stretch?

Before we get to this year’s team, let’s look back at the previous nine years under Dave Hakstol. For simplicity’s sake, I used January 1st as the midway point for analysis. First, individually:

2004-05: First half 13-7-2, Second half 12-8-3 (7-1-1 in March 2005)
2005-06: First half 13-8-1, Second half 16-8-0 (8-1-0 in March 2006)
2006-07: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-4-4 (6-1-1 in March 2007)
2007-08: First half 9-7-1, Second half 19-4-3 (7-2-2 in March 2008)
2008-09: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-5-3 (4-4-0 in March 2009)
2009-10: First half 9-6-3, Second half 16-7-2 (7-2-0 in March 2010)
2010-11: First half 14-5-2, Second half 18-3-1 (8-0-0 in March 2011)
2011-12: First half 10-8-2, Second half 16-5-1 (8-1-0 in March 2012)
2012-13: First half 10-5-3, Second half 12-8-4 (5-4-1 in March 2013)

And combined 2004-13: First half 96-66-16 (.584) Second half 138-48-19 (.720), 60-16-5 (.772) in March

As you can see, the first two seasons do not necessarily fit the category of “second half surges”. It is interesting to note, however, that in both of those years, the record in the month of March was significantly better than the rest of the season.

The first season where the phrase “second half surge” became widely used was in 2006-07. Not only did the Sioux only lose four games from January until April, the team went on an 11 game unbeaten streak (8-0-3) in January and February. And the 2008-09 North Dakota club went 18 games without a loss (15-0-3) in the second half, again collecting only four losses after New Year’s Day.

The other two teams that did not fit the “second half surge” trend were the 2010-11 squad (which was consistently excellent all season long) and last year’s team, which posted eight losses in the second half, including four losses in March.

And this year’s squad:

2013-14: First half 9-7-2, Second falf 9-2-1

The latest version of the second half surge is even more pronounced if one marks December 1st as the midway point. This most recent surge has produced a stretch of 17 games during which North Dakota has gone 14-2-1.

Each team has its own personality, makeup, and character, but there seems to be a common thread running through Dave Hakstol’s tenure at North Dakota: early season struggles and growing pains lead to consistency in the second half, culminating in an excellent winning percentage during tournament time (albeit a dismal 1-5 record in April).

What factors contribute to the early season struggles? For me, it boils down to a team’s identity. Included in that are several questions:

What type of team will each year’s roster become?
Who will handle the goaltending duties?
What types of injuries will they have to overcome?
With early departures, how long will it take the returning players to find and define roles?
Will the incoming freshman class contribute?
Who will handle the key special teams roles, and how long before those units find success?

I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is the only school that has to handle these issues each season; I’m simply bringing them up in an attempt to illustrate that coaching is not an exact science. There is no “magic button”, it’s a process. Early on, I heard Hakstol comment many times that despite the losses, he liked this team and believed that they were very close to playing up to their capabilities.

The biggest factors for this season’s early struggles were goaltending and injuries.

The rotation of Zane Gothberg and Clarke Saunders did not work out very well. Before Gothberg became the full-time starter on November 30th, UND was 4-7-2. Since then, the Green and White are 14-2-1. In twelve games as the number-one goaltender, the sophomore has posted a ridiculous stat line:

11-0-1, 1.37 goals-against average, .938 save percentage, 1 shutout

During that stretch, Gothberg has allowed more than two goals just once, a 5-3 victory over Colorado College.

Other factors that have contributed to the success over the past three months have been an improved power play, a healthy lineup, and key contributions from the blue line.

Over the past three games, for example, UND has gone 6 for 15 on the power play (40%). Over the past four games, North Dakota’s blueliners have accounted for eight goals and 13 assists for 21 points. And a healthy Green and White lineup means that players like Mark MacMillan, Michael Parks, Drake Caggiula, and Rocco Grimaldi can be spread across two lines, making UND more difficult to defend. Over the past four games, North Dakota’s big four forwards have tallied seven goals and added 14 assists for 21 points.

The rest of this discussion is up to you. Is there truth to the second half surge? Is it math or myth? And what do you expect from this year’s team the rest of the way? Leave your comments and let me know what you think.

At the beginning of the season, Miami was #1 in the national polls and expected to finish first in the inaugural season of the NCHC. The RedHawks returned Ryan McKay between the pipes (1.39 GAA, .946 SV%, 4 SO in 2012-13) and a pair of high-flying forwards in Riley Barber and Austin Czarnik, who tallied 79 points in 82 combined games last season.

Looking at Enrico Blasi’s squad this year, Barber and Czarnik are exceptional once again, with 70 points through their first 51 combined games. And McKay has been good but not great, sporting a 2.69 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage with three shutouts.

That difference in goaltending has been the story. Last season, Miami was 8-5 in one-goal games. This year, the RedHawks are 0-6 in nailbiters, including four conference losses by a single goal.

By contrast, North Dakota is 5-1 in one-goal games, including a 4-1 record in tight NCHC contests.

The other surprise is that Miami is just 6-6-1 at home this season after a sparkling 14-3-3 mark at Steve Cady Arena (Oxford, OH) a year ago. Perhaps the weight of all those preseason expectations has the RedHawks squeezing the stick a bit too tight in front of the home fans.

After posting eight consecutive 20-win seasons (including 33 victories in 2007-08), Blasi is stuck on ten victories with only eight regular season games remaining on the schedule. The RedHawks already have more losses this season (13) than all of last year, when Mami finished with a 25-12-5 record.

To put all of this in perspective, if those one-goal games had gone the other way, Miami would be sitting at 16-7-3 overall and 8-7-1-1 in the NCHC, right in the thick of the race for home ice.

UND is 9-5-1 at Ralph Engelstad Arena this season, with two home sweeps (Northern Michigan and Colorado College) to its credit. As Jim Dahl explains here, anything worse than a sweep this weekend will do more harm to North Dakota’s Pairwise ranking.

But a sweep this weekend will not be easy. Miami is fighting to stay out of the NCHC cellar and is hoping to get on a run that will lead them to the NCHC tournament and back to the NCAAs.

On the injury front, North Dakota may once again be without the services of sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%). Gothberg sustained an injury in practice in late January and has not appeared in a game since. In his absence, senior netminder Clarke Saunders (4-4-0, 3.36 GAA, .901 SV% in eleven appearances) will need to be sharp, particularly when Miami is on the power play.

Miami Team Profile

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (15th season at Miami, 321-209-56, .596)

Pairwise Ranking: t-35th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 10-13-3 overall, 4-11-1-1 NCHC (t-7th)
Last Season: 25-12-5 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 17-7-4-4 CCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.08 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.85 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (25 of 126)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (99 of 121)

Key players: Sophomore F Riley Barber (17-19-36), Junior F Austin Czarnik (10-24-34), Sophomore F Sean Kuraly (6-12-18), Sophomore D Matthew Caito (3-10-13), Sophomore G Ryan McKay (6-8-3, 2.69 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 249-128-40, .645)

Pairwise Ranking: 18th
National Ranking: #17
This Season: 14-9-3 overall, 9-7-0-0 NCHC (t-3rd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.81 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.8% (20 of 119)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (103 of 126)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (10-12-22), Sophomore F Michael Parks (8-13-21), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (7-8-15), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-11-16), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (3-12-15), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 19, 2013 (Oxford, OH). Miami junior forward Blake Coleman netted a hat trick for the homestanding RedHawks, who stormed to a 5-0 lead early in the second period before cruising to a 6-2 victory. Coleman was issued a game misconduct in Friday’s opener, which North Dakota won 4-2.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 28, 2009 (Subway Holiday Classic). In the teams’ first and only meeting at Ralph Engelstad Arena, the two powerhouses skated to a 5-5 draw. Miami came back from a two goal deficit in the third period, with RedHawks forward Reilly Smith (2g, 1a) scoring the equalizer with under three minutes remaining to earn the tie. Freshman forward Danny Kristo scored two goals and added an assist and was named the tournament MVP after a four point weekend. Both teams came in to the contest allowing under two goals per game.

Most Important Meeting: The most important meeting is the one about to be played. If UND doesn’t sweep the RedHawks this weekend, they may have to win the conference tournament to receive a bid to the NCAA’s.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 3-1-1, with UND outscoring the RedHawks 19-15 over that span. One of those victories came at the Badger Showdown (Milwaukee, WI) in December 1999 when Dean Blais was still behind the North Dakota bench.

Game News and Notes

Miami has just one win in its last ten games, a 6-1 rout of Colorado College. The RedHawks also lost an exhibition match against the U.S. Under-18 team during that time. Clarke Saunders started two games for Alabama-Huntsville against Miami in February 2012, stopping 73 of 80 shots in a pair of losses. And back in October 2013, Saunders came on in relief of Zane Gothberg in Saturday’s loss, stopping 23 of 25 shots he faced. UND coach Dave Hakstol’s next victory will be the 250th win of his head coaching career. UND is 9-8-1 all time on Valentine’s Day.

Special Note

Friday night’s opener will begin at 7:38 p.m. Central due to the CBS Sports Network broadcast of the game. The game tickets for Friday night, which were printed prior to the 2013-14 television scheduled being released, incorrectly indicate a 7 p.m. start time.

The Prediction

Miami is a better team than their record indicates, and Ryan McKay can definitely steal a game for the RedHawks. That being said, look for UND to click on the power play early and often and cruise on Saturday after winning a thriller on Friday night. UND 4-3, 5-2.

North Dakota was idle last weekend but is coming off of a loss at Denver on January 25th. The Green and White have not lost consecutive games since November 16th (vs. Minnesota-Duluth) and 22nd (at Boston University). UND has only played three home games since December 14th but will play six of its final ten NCHC contests at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

Nebraska-Omaha is currently tied for second place in the NCHC with North Dakota and Denver. The Pioneers travel to St. Cloud this weekend to face the league-leading Huskies of SCSU.

UNO played a pair of wild home games against St. Cloud State last weekend, losing 5-3 on Friday and winning 8-6 on Saturday.

Dean Blais’ squad has a distinct North Dakota feel to it, with two forwards named Archibald and Zombo on the ice. UND fans may remember their dads, Jim Archibald and Rick Zombo, who wore the green and white during Blais’ tenure in Grand Forks. The younger Archibald (Josh) leads the team in points (18-10-28), while Dominic Zombo has chipped in twelve goals and eight assists in 24 games for the Mavericks, including a hat trick last Saturday night.

Both squads figure to be in the mix for the league title, and these two games are critical. After this weekend, North Dakota will host Miami and travel to Duluth and St. Cloud State before hosting Western Michigan on the final weekend of the regular season. UNO will host Denver, head to Western Michigan, host Colorado College, and play at Minnesota-Duluth.

On the injury front, North Dakota is once again without the services of sophomore goaltender Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%). Gothberg sustained an injury in practice in late January and did not travel with the team to Denver. A timetable for his recovery is uncertain. In his absence, senior netminder Clarke Saunders (3-3-0, 3.18 GAA, .907 SV% in nine appearances) will need to be sharp against the offensive minded Mavericks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (5th season at UNO, 84-80-18, .511)

Pairwise Ranking: t-29th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 10-12-2 overall, 7-5-2-1 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 19-18-2 overall, 14-12-2 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.2% (24 of 125)
Penalty Kill: 76.0% (98 of 129)

Key Players: Junior F Josh Archibald (18-20-28), Senior F Ryan Walters (5-18-23), Junior F Dominic Zombo (12-8-20), Freshman D Ian Brady (4-11-15), Senior D Michael Young (0-13-13), Junior G Ryan Massa (6-5-1, 3.01 GAA, .887 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 248-127-40, .646)

Pairwise Ranking: 15th
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 13-8-3 overall, 8-6-0-0 NCHC (t-2nd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (20 of 109)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (97 of 119)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (9-12-21), Sophomore F Michael Parks (7-10-17), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (6-7-13), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-9-14), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (2-11-13), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (10-5-3, 2.26 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers:

Last meeting: November 10, 2013 (Omaha, NE). One night after falling 4-2 to the homestanding Mavericks, UND used second period goals from Michael Parks and Drake Caggiula and earned a split with a 3-2 victory. Clarke Saunders made 36 saves for North Dakota.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: December 10, 2011. Danny Kristo scored a goal on the first shift of the third period and Aaron Dell stopped all 26 shots he faced as North Dakota won a tight 1-0 contest. UNO won Friday’s opener 2-1 in overtime on Ryan Walters’ breakaway goal.

Most important meeting: The two teams have only met ten times (with UND holding a 6-4 advantage, outscoring UNO 29-26). With the NCHC league race tightening, I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Last ten: Six of the ten games in the all-time series have been decided by a single goal, including four of the last six. Both teams have won two of the four meetings in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais is 2-2 lifetime on the visitors’ bench at Ralph Engelstad Arena, splitting WCHA series in January and December 2011. Blais, who was the head coach at UND from 1994-2004, collected 262 victories at North Dakota and led the school to national titles in 1997 and 2000. North Dakota is 9-1-1 in its last 11 games. UND senior goaltender Clarke Saunders has made five career starts against the Mavericks, stopping 214 of 228 shots for three victories and a .939 save percentage.

The Prediction

Duluth is the only NCHC team to have swept UNO this season, and I’m having a hard time convincing myself that UND will be able to outscore the Mavs twice, particularly since North Dakota was blanked in its last outing and has scored only nine goals in its last four games. I think one game gets out of hand this weekend, but Hakstol’s crew locks it down to earn the split. UNO 5-3, UND 3-2.