Sioux Sports Talk

With full credit to GW Gear, the folks who created the slogan in quotation marks above (and a t-shirt), I’d like to offer a few thoughts on this notion that “North Dakota fans travel well”.

I’ve taken over 40 hockey road trips over the past 17 seasons, and it seems to me that the contingent of UND fans traveling to road arenas and tournaments is growing larger all the time.

Nowhere is this more evident than at the conference tournament in the Twin Cities. Legions of Sioux fans used to descend on St. Paul and Xcel Energy Center every March, and this year they’ll be headed across the river to turn Target Center into yet another home weekend for the boys from Grand Forks.

It certainly helps that UND has won its first round series and advanced to the final weekend of the playoffs in each of the past twelve seasons. Despite the fact that half of those series went to a decisive Game 3, fans have grown accustomed to seeing the Green and White represented – first at the WCHA Final Five, and now at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. With that expectation, many followers of North Dakota hockey have taken to buying their ticket packages well in advance rather than waiting to see if their team will be there and then scrambling to make arrangements with just a few days to spare.

In other words, the team’s consistency has created crowds.

It’s also rewarding as a fan to hear the players, coaches, and media members take notice and share their appreciation. Mark Schuttenhelm (writing for the Jamestown Sun) had this to say in his article about the February 2013 series in Omaha that featured an outdoor game on Saturday:

Coach Hakstol and many of the players were clearly moved by the fan support. A few quotes from the postgame press conferences … coach Hakstol called the fan turnout “phenomenal.” Danny Kristo called it “unbelievable,” “humbling,” and “felt like a home game.” Zane Gothberg described it as “absolutely incredible” and “something I’ll remember for the rest of my life.” Approximately 9,500 fans attended Friday night’s game in Omaha vs. UNO’s average home attendance of about 6,000. The attendance at Saturday’s outdoor game was 13,650. Those are some impressive numbers.

And more recently, here are a few tweets from current North Dakota players after Sunday night’s Game 3 victory over Colorado College:

Bryn Chyzyk ‏@chyz21
Big win last night can’t wait to see the Sioux fans take over the Target center this weekend #rolltribe

Stephane Pattyn ‏@GeneralPattyn28
Wow thank you for all the kind words everyone!! Huge win for our team. Can’t wait to see the sea of green at the Target Center! #sioux

Dillon Simpson ‏@Simmer18
Thank you Grand Forks for four amazing years of playing in the Ralph. SEE YOU ALL IN MINNEAPOLIS!!

Another example of people taking notice comes from Denver University. The Pioneers players, coaches, and athletic department grew so weary of all of the green in their own rink that they implemented a ticket policy specifically designed to keep North Dakota fans out of Magness Arena. The short-lived, short-sighted rule only created more interest and excitement for the series in January of this year, and the UND fans did not disappoint.

In the “for what it’s worth” department, the NCHC could implement a ticket policy specifically designed to increase the number of Pioneers fans at Target Center this weekend (let’s say, for example, giving them all free ticket packages), and I think they’d get fewer than 100 takers on that offer. They just don’t show up.

The NCHC Frozen Faceoff needed North Dakota in the tournament. Not so much for this season, although it helps, but for the future. Many UND fans already had their ticket packages for this weekend, and would have attended regardless. But a conference tourney without the Green and White would have caused most fans to reconsider buying packages in advance for next season’s Faceoff. So North Dakota’s consistency helps the league, both now and in the future.

And to this point, here’s a view inside the Twitterverse from the past 16 hours (since UND’s Game 3 victory went in the books), illustrating the collective relief and celebration felt across the NCHC:

The Red Army ‏@RedArmyUNO (UNO hockey’s Premier Fan Organization)
Well, at least the NCHC won’t be bankrupt after one year.

Shane Frederick ‏@puckato (College Hockey writer for the Mankato Free Press)
And the giant “Whew!” you just heard was from the NCHC folks. North Dakota (and their fans) will be at Target Center next weekend.

Schlossman ‏@SchlossmanGF (College Hockey writer for the Grand Forks Herald)
Guessing that the delay in the NCHC game time announcement is because officials at league/Target Center/CBS are doing jag bombs right now.

And to sum it up, here’s Chris Peters (The United States Of Hockey) commenting on this unique phenomenon:

If there’s one thing you can say about North Dakota hockey fans, they’re passionate. That passion makes UND’s among the best, if not the best traveling fan base in all of college hockey. That has occasionally made their away games seem a lot more like home.

And this weekend will mark yet another such occasion. It is indeed always a home game. See you all in Minneapolis!

Fans, now it’s your turn. What are your favorite road trip venues? Memories? What’s it like to be a part of a large, vocal road crowd? Please share your thoughts below, and thanks for reading!

Colorado College opened with a 3-1 home victory over Minnesota-Duluth in the first NCHC game for either school. The Tigers then won just one of their next 21 games (1-16-4) but have come on a bit lately, going 4-6-2 in the last twelve, including victories over Miami and Western Michigan and a home-and-home sweep over rival Denver. The Tigers have scored 27 goals over that stretch (2.25 goals/game) after tallying just 39 in the first 22 games of the season (1.77 goals/game).

CC has found lots of different ways to lose, but the primary culprit is that Colorado College has not been able to finish games. The Tigers have scored first in 15 of 34 games this year and have played opponents even in the first period (24 goals scored, 24 goals allowed). But Scott Owen’s squad is just 1-11-3 when taking the early lead and has been outscored 87-42 in the final two periods and overtime this year.

The Tiger faithful can point to the scoring void created when last year’s senior class (Rylan Schwartz, Will Rapuzzi, Mike Boivin, Scott Winkler, Andrew Hamburg, and Joe Marciano) graduated. Those six accounted for 170 of CC’s 315 points (54.0%) in 2012-13.

But North Dakota experienced a similar loss with the graduation of Danny Kristo, Corban Knight, Carter Rowney, Joe Gleason, and Andrew MacWilliam, plus the early departure of Derek Forbort. The six UND stalwarts collected 176 of North Dakota’s 361 points, good for 48.8 percent of UND’s production last year.

The past two seasons have been the most trying of Scott Owens’ coaching career. After 13 winning campaigns behind the bench (299-185-43, .608), Owens’ teams have gone just 24-41-11 (.388) over the past two years. If Colorado College decides to retain their veteran coach, the cupboard is full. The Tigers have only four senior skaters on the roster, and those four have combined for just 17 of Colorado College’s 66 goals (25.8%) and 43 of CC’s 177 points (24.3%) this season. Only forward Alexander Krushelnyski (10-13-23) will be considered an offensive loss.

For North Dakota, the future may be even brighter than the present. UND’s three senior skaters (defenseman Dillon Simpson and forwards Derek Rodwell and Mitch MacMillan) have chipped in just 13 of UND’s 104 goals (12.5%) and 31 of 280 team points (11.1%) in 2013-14. Dave Hakstol will certainly miss Simpson’s offensive production next season, as the first team all-NCHC blueliner has potted seven goals and tallied 14 assists this year.

Assuming all players return, the Green and White will dress ten players next season with twenty or more career points, including four (Rocco Grimaldi, Mark MacMillan, Michael Parks, and Nick Mattson) with more than 50.

Players eligible to return: current year, position, career points, and career games played:

Sophomore forward Rocco Grimaldi: 27 goals, 44 assists (71 points) in 78 games
Junior forward Mark MacMillan: 29 goals, 39 assists, (68 points) in 114 games
Junior forward Michael Parks: 29 goals, 28 assists (57 points) in 101 games
Sophomore forward Drake Caggiula: 17 goals, 18 assists (35 points) in 73 games
Junior forward Conner Gaarder: 13 goals, 20 assists (33 points) in 101 games
Junior forward Brendan O’Donnell: 12 goals, 17 assists (29 points) in 73 games
Junior forward Stephane Pattyn: 11 goals, 11 assists (22 points) in 117 games
Freshman forward Luke Johnson: 8 goals, 12 assists (20 points) in 34 games

Junior defenseman Nick Mattson: 12 goals, 39 assists (51 points) in 112 games
Sophomore defenseman Jordan Schmaltz: 7 goals, 25 assists (32 points) in 75 games

Add in defenseman Paul LaDue’s stellar freshman campaign (5-11-16 in 33 games) and the fact that starting goaltender Zane Gothberg (24-11-6, 2.20 goals-against average, .922 save percentage, two shutouts) is just a sophomore, and one can plainly see that North Dakota is poised to compete now and in the future.

The key to the second half of the season for North Dakota has been the performance of Mark MacMillan, Brendan O’Donnell, and Michael Parks. The three juniors had collected 94 points in 197 games over their first two seasons but had just 21 points in 43 combined games leading into the January series against Colorado College. Since that time, the trio has 39 points in 48 games, and the three are among ten North Dakota players averaging a point per weekend.

There are several other areas on the Green and White side of the ledger in this matchup: goaltending has been a question mark all season for the Tigers (senior Josh Thorimbert is allowing more than three goals per game with a save percentage below .900), while sophomore Zane Gothberg has taken over the #1 spot for UND. Colorado College comes in to this weekend with the second-worst power play in the league (12.7%), while North Dakota is clipping along at 18.5%. And finally, CC has not played well on the road this year (1-13-2) and historically has had some difficulty adjusting to the narrower NHL ice sheet, as witnessed by the fact that the Tigers have won just 20 out of 111 games played in Grand Forks.

If there has been a letdown in North Dakota’s game, it’s been in the third period. Dave Hakstol’s crew has outscored opponents 77-53 in the first 40 minutes of games this season with a 734-635 advantage in shots on goal. But the switch has flipped in the final frame. Opponents have outscored UND 33-27 in the third period, with a shot advantage of 341-292. Despite those statistics, North Dakota is 13-2-0 this season when leading after two periods of play.

The winner of this weekend series will travel down to Minneapolis to compete in the first-ever NCHC Frozen Faceoff at Target Center. By virtue of the Pairwise rankings, Colorado College would need to win the conference tournament to advance to the NCAA’s. North Dakota would be squarely on the bubble with a series defeat, while two victories this weekend would put them in very good position for the national tournament.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (15th season at CC, 323-226-54, .580)

Pairwise Ranking: 51st
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 6-22-6 overall, 6-13-5 NCHC (7th)
Last Season: 18-19-5 overall, 11-13-4 WCHA (8th)

Team Offense: 1.94 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.26 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.7% (17 of 134)
Penalty Kill: 78.5% (106 of 135)

Key Players: Senior F Alexander Krushelnyski (10-13-23), Freshman F Sam Rothstein (5-12-17), Freshman F Alex Roos (8-7-15), Sophomore F Cody Bradley (6-9-15), Senior F Archie Skalbeck (6-8-14), Freshman D Jaccob Slavin (5-17-22), Freshman D Gustav Olofsson (4-3-7), Senior G Josh Thorimbert (6-21-6, 3.16 GAA, .895 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 255-130-40, .647)

Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #10
This Season: 20-11-3 overall, 15-9-0-0 NCHC (2nd)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.53 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.5% (29 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 82.8% (130 of 157)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-20-33), Sophomore F Michael Parks (10-17-27), Junior F Mark MacMillan (9-11-20), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (9-10-19), Freshman F Luke Johnson (8-12-20), Senior D Dillon Simpson (7-14-21), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (4-16-20), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (15-7-3, 2.02 GAA, .924 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 11, 2014 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after handing the Tigers a 5-3 loss, UND mounted a third period comeback to complete the series sweep. North Dakota’s Keaton Thompson and Rocco Grimaldi scored two minutes apart in the final frame for a 3-2 victory. Three of Colorado College’s five goals in the series came on the power play.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 141-79-10 (.635), including a staggering 85-20-6 (.793) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-3-0 (.600) in the last ten meetings between the teams. UND has only outscored CC 40-35 over the last ten games, with five of UND’s seven victories coming by a single goal.

Game News and Notes

CC has not made an appearance in the national tournament since 2011, while North Dakota has made the NCAAs each of the last eleven seasons. Colorado College freshman defenseman Jaccob Slavin has 22 points in 29 games, tied for first among NCHC blueliners. North Dakota’s Dillon Simpson has collected ten points in ten career games against the Tigers, while Rocco Grimaldi isn’t far behind with one goal and six assists in seven games against CC. Head coach Scott Owens has coached the Tigers since 1997.

The Prediction

As I mentioned in an earlier article about the playoffs, a first-round sweep is not an easy task. And in my NCHC Playoff Preview, I predicted that the other three conference series would all go to a decisive third game. But everything stacks up on North Dakota’s side of the ledger, so I’ll take the Green and White in two. Saturday’s game will be a battle and will probably go to overtime. UND 5-2, 2-1.

This is the 12th consecutive season that North Dakota has hosted a first round playoff series, and UND has fared extremely well on home ice, advancing to the second weekend of the conference tournament in each instance.

Dave Hakstol is 22-5 over that stretch, putting the home fans at ease by winning Friday’s opener seven straight times. Saturday’s games have been more difficult, as seen by the following breakdown:

Average goals scored/goals allowed in first round home playoff games:

Friday: 4.50 goals scored/1.50 goals allowed
Saturday: 2.92 goals scored/2.08 goals allowed
Sunday: 3.60 goals scored/0.80 goals allowed

The way this has played out in the past is that North Dakota has typically hosted a team from the bottom third of the league (Michigan Tech five times, MSU-Mankato twice, and once each for Minnesota, Denver, and Minnesota-Duluth). Friday’s openers have been blowouts, with UND winning nine of its last eleven openers by an average score of 5.67 – 1.22.

So why is it that five of the past eleven home series have gone to a third and decisive game?

The main reason that the Green and White have played much closer games on Saturday night (seven one-goal games) is that in every case, North Dakota was playing to extend its own season and/or end another team’s season. Elimination games bring out the best in both teams, and the results are tightly contested matches. Remarkably, UND played host to five overtime playoff contests from 2003-2008 but have none since that time.

And not coincidentally, the last time North Dakota was on the road for the first round (2002), they demonstrated similar results. Playing at eventual national champion Minnesota in the opening round of the WCHA playoffs, UND took the Gophers to overtime on Saturday night (losing 4-3) after getting destroyed 7-2 in Friday’s opener.

Dave Hakstol’s crew has only given up four total goals in five Sunday home playoff games, with the last two Game Threes going into the books as blowouts (4-1 vs. Minnesota, 6-0 vs. Michigan Tech).

The only playoff series in the current stretch that did not feature at least one close game was in 2005. North Dakota destroyed Minnesota-Duluth 8-2 and 6-1, with Rory McMahon (2 goals, 5 assists) and Rastislav Spirko (3 goals, 3 assists) leading the way for the Fighting Sioux. Colby Genoway added three goals and two assists, and netminder Jordan Parise turned away 34 of 37 Bulldog shots to earn two victories and the series sweep.

Here are the complete results for the last 27 home conference playoff games:

2013 vs. Michigan Tech: 5-3, 1-2, 6-0
2012 vs. Bemidji State: 4-1, 4-3
2011 vs. Michigan Tech: 8-0, 3-1
2010 vs. Minnesota: 6-0, 2-4, 4-1
2009 vs. Michigan Tech: 5-1, 4-3
2008 vs. Michigan Tech: 4-0, 2-3 (OT), 2-1
2007 vs. MSU-Mankato: 5-2, 2-1
2006 vs. MSU-Mankato: 2-3 (OT), 4-1, 3-0
2005 vs. Minnesota-Duluth: 8-2, 6-1
2004 vs. Michigan Tech: 6-2, 4-3 (OT)
2003 vs. Denver: 1-4, 3-2 (OT), 3-2 (OT)

So what will this weekend’s result be? Will the series go to a third game? Check back later today for a full preview and prediction.

The first season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference is in the books, and the first round playoff matchups are set. Before we dive into the postseason, though, let’s have a look back at my predicted order of finish for the inaugural NCHC campaign:

#1: Miami
#2: North Dakota
#3: St Cloud State
#4: Western Michigan
#5: Denver
#6: Minnesota-Duluth
#7: Colorado College
#8: Nebraska-Omaha

As you can see, I swung and missed badly on both Miami and Nebraska-Omaha. Otherwise, the order was pretty true to how things actually ended up:

#1: St. Cloud State
#2: North Dakota
#3: Nebraska-Omaha
#4: Minnesota-Duluth
#5: Western Michigan
#6: Denver
#7: Colorado College
#8: Miami

And that brings us to this weekend’s action. Miami will travel to St. Cloud State to face the Huskies, Western Michigan will head to Duluth, and both Colorado schools will be on the road (Denver at Omaha; Colorado College at North Dakota). All series are best-of-three, with the winners advancing to next weekend’s NCHC Frozen Faceoff in Minneapolis. Aside from St. Cloud State and North Dakota, the other six league members may very well have to win the Frozen Faceoff to advance to the NCAA tournament. St. Cloud State is firmly in (5th in the Pairwise), while North Dakota is currently 10th and would solidify (but not guarantee) a spot in the national tournament with two victories this weekend.

As is customary, I’ll have a full weekend preview for Colorado College at North Dakota on game day.

And here are the capsules and predictions for the other three NCHC first round playoff series:

#8 Miami RedHawks at #1 St. Cloud State Huskies

2013-14 Season Series (tied 2-2)

November 8 (at SCSU): Miami 2, St. Cloud 0
November 9 (at SCSU): St. Cloud 2, Miami 1

February 21 (at Miami): Miami 4, St. Cloud 3
February 22 (at Miami): St, Cloud 3, Miami 0

Miami Team Profile

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (15th season at Miami, 323-215-56, .591)

Pairwise Ranking: 40th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 12-19-3 overall, 6-17-1-1 NCHC (8th)
Last Season: 25-12-5 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 17-7-4-4 CCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.82 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.3% (31 of 153)
Penalty Kill: 80.5% (124 of 154)

Key players: Sophomore F Riley Barber (18-20-38), Junior F Austin Czarnik (11-32-43), Junior F Blake Coleman (18-6-24 in 23 games), Sophomore D Matthew Caito (3-12-15), Sophomore G Ryan McKay (7-12-3, 2.70 GAA, .913 SV%, 3 SO)

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 9th season at SCSU, 183-133-40, .570)

Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Ranking: #4
This Season: 21-8-5 overall, 15-6-3-0 NCHC (1st)
Last Season: 25-16-1 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-9-1 WCHA (t-1st)

Team Offense: 3.68 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.68 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.4% (34 of 134)
Penalty Kill: 77.7% (87 of 112)

Key Players: Senior F Nic Dowd (19-17-36), Sophomore F Jonny Brodzinski (20-19-39), Sophomore F Kalle Kossila (13-23-36), Junior D Andrew Prochno (3-16-19), Sophomore D Ethan Prow (4-16-20), Junior G Ryan Faragher (19-7-4, 2.67 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)

The Prediction: Miami is the team no one wanted to face in the first round of the playoffs, as Enrico Blasi’s squad is healthy and hungry. St Cloud State tends to jump on teams early, outscoring opponents 42-23 in the first period and holding a 10-2-2 record when scoring the first goal. If the RedHawks can weather the first ten minutes on Friday night, they just might make it a series. I’ve got St. Cloud State in three games.

#6 Denver Pioneers at #3 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks

2013-14 Season Series (Nebraska-Omaha leads 3-1):

November 1 (at DU): Nebraska-Omaha 3, Denver 2 (OT)
November 2 (at DU): Nebraska-Omaha 3, Denver 2 (OT)

February 14 (at UNO): Nebraska-Omaha 4, Denver 2
February 15 (at UNO): Denver 4, Nebraska-Omaha 1

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: Jim Montgomery (1st season at DU, 16-14-6, .528)

Pairwise Ranking: 27th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 16-14-6 overall, 10-11-3-2 NCHC (6th)
Last Season: 20-14-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional Semifinalist), 14-9-5 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 2.56 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.6% (32 of 155)
Penalty Kill: 88.0% (139 of 158)

Key Players: Freshman F Trevor Moore (12-16-28), Sophomore F Quentin Shore (7-18-25), Sophomore F Gabe Levin (5-16-21), Junior D Joey LaLeggia (10-11-21), Senior D David Makowski (9-12-21), Senior G Sam Brittain (15-12-6, 2.09 GAA, .933 SV%, 4 SO)

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (5th season at UNO, 90-84-18, .516)

Pairwise Ranking: 26th
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 16-16-2 overall, 13-9-2-1 NCHC (3rd)
Last Season: 19-18-2 overall, 14-12-2 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.24 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (34 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 80.5% (140 of 174)

Key Players: Junior F Josh Archibald (29-14-43), Senior F Ryan Walters (6-25-31), Junior F Dominic Zombo (16-16-32), Freshman D Ian Brady (4-16-20), Senior D Michael Young (3-19-22), Junior G Ryan Massa (10-7-1, 2.72 GAA, .900 SV%, 1 SO)

The Prediction: Denver goaltender Sam Brittain could be the difference for the Pioneers, but Maverick forward Josh Archibald, a Hobey Baker contender, just might pot five goals this weekend. This seems to be another series that will go the distance, and I’ll take the home team. Nebraska-Omaha in three games.

#5 Western Michigan Broncos at #4 Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs

2013-2014 Season Series (Minnesota-Duluth leads 3-1):

December 13 (at UMD): Western Michigan 5, Minnesota-Duluth 3
December 14 (at UMD): Minnesota-Duluth 4, Western Michigan 3

January 31 (at WMU): Minnesota-Duluth 5, Western Michigan 2
February 1 (at WMU): Minnesota-Duluth 3, Western Michigan 1

Western Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: (Andy Murray, 3rd season at WMU, 57-39-19, .578)

Pairwise Ranking: 21st
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 17-14-5 overall, 11-11-2 NCHC (t-4th)
Last Season: 19-11-8 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 15-7-6-3 CCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.68 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.4% (21 of 170)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (165 of 196)

Key Players: Senior F Shane Berschbach (14-21-35), Junior F Justin Kovacs (12-19-31), Senior F Chase Balisy (12-21-33), Sophomore D Kenney Morrison (3-15-18), Junior D Jordan Oesterle (2-13-15), Sophomore G Lukas Hafner (8-6-2, 2.07 GAA, .924 GAA, 2 SO)

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (14th season at UMD, 247-243-67,.504)

Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Ranking: #20
This Season: 16-14-4 overall, 11-11-2-2 NCHC (t-4th)
Last Season: 14-19-5 overall, 10-13-5 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 2.91 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.85 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.5% (26 of 158)
Penalty Kill: 82.7% (143 of 173)

Key Players: Junior F Caleb Herbert (12-18-30), Freshman F Alex Iafallo (11-11-22), Junior F Justin Crandall (14-11-25), Senior F Joe Basaraba (7-10-17), Sophomore D Andy Welinski (5-14-19), Freshman D Willie Raskob (0-12-12), Senior G Aaron Crandall (14-10-3, 2.74 GAA, .904 SV%, 1 SO)

The Prediction: Despite a UMD sweep at Western Michigan in late January and early February, these two teams are evenly matched and faltering to the finish line. Duluth is just 4-5-1 in the last ten games; the Broncos, 5-4-1. WMU’s power play has been an Achilles heel all season (12.4%), but the Bulldogs are just 5-8-3 at home. In a case of “somebody has to win”, I’ll take Andy Murray and the road squad in a mild upset. Western Michigan in three.

So there you have it. I’ve got St. Cloud State, Nebraska-Omaha, and Western Michigan advancing to Minneapolis, all in three games. Feel free to comment with your predictions below, and check back tomorrow for a full preview of Colorado College at North Dakota.

Here’s what I wrote back in early December before North Dakota and Western Michigan faced off in Kalamazoo, Michigan:

“Only five wins overall. Five losses in eight conference games. Unranked and on the outside looking in. That’s the situation facing Dave Hakstol and the UND men’s hockey team as they travel to Kalamazoo, Michigan to take on Andy Murray and the Western Michigan Broncos. North Dakota can’t afford too many more conference losses if it expects to host the first round of the league playoffs for the eleventh consecutive year. The only other team with as many conference losses is Colorado College (1-5-2-1 NCHC, 1-10-2 overall), and I’m certain that UND does not want to be mentioned in that company this season.”

What a difference three months makes.

Since I wrote those words, UND is 14-3-1 and has outscored opponents 64-38. Dave Hakstol’s squad, once scratching and clawing to secure home ice and a spot in the top 15 of the Pairwise rankings, now finds itself at #9 in the Pairwise with home ice secured for the first round of the NCHC playoffs and tied for first place in the race for the inaugural Penrose Cup.

Over that same stretch, North Dakota sophomore netminder Zane Gothberg has been virtually unbeatable, compiling a record of 11-1-1 with a goals-against average of 1.68 and a save percentage of .922 with one shutout. Gothberg has allowed more than two goals only once over that span, a 5-3 road victory over Colorado College.

Andy Murray, formerly head coach of the NHL’s Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues, is hoping to get his squad back to the NCAA tournament after a disappointing bubble last season. WMU finished at 19-11-8 last year, narrowly missing the big dance. The Broncos are led up front by senior forwards Shane Berschbach (14-21-35) and Chase Balisy (12-21-33) and junior forward Justin Kovacs (12-18-30).

By comparison, North Dakota has just one forward (Rocco Grimaldi) with 30 or more points this season.

Western Michigan goaltender Frank Slubowski, who was so good in the early going, has just four wins since November 30th. Here are his first half/second half splits:

October 2013 – November 2013: 5-4-3, 2.23 goals-against average, .925 save percentage
December 2013 – February 2014: 4-4-0, 3.42 goals-against average, .891 save percentage

Slubowski’s subpar second half has opened the door for sophomore netminder Lukas Hafner to appear in 18 games (many in relief), and Hafner has delivered a record of 7-5-2 with a goals-against average of 2.14, a save percentage of .920, and two shutouts. Expect both Slubowski and Hafner to see game action this weekend in Grand Forks.

Dave Hakstol’s crew has been getting it done with balanced scoring. Nine UND players have collected more than a half point per game this season, including three defensemen. Eleven North Dakota skaters have amassed ten or more points in 2013-14, with three more players within two points of double digits.

Production from the blue line has been a theme for the Green and White this season. The top six UND blueliners have collected 23 goals and 64 assists (87 points) as a unit, while Western Michigan defensemen can claim 11 goals and 46 assists (57 points).

Specialty teams continues to be an area of concern for Andy Murray’s Broncos. WMU has converted only 12.3 percent of man advantage situations this season and currently sits at a -9 (20 power play goals scored, 29 power play goals allowed). North Dakota is clicking at 18.8% with the man advantage, and is a +1 combined (27 power play goals scored, 26 power play goals allowed).

The other key factor is that Western Michigan has already had 183 shorthanded situations this season compared to just 162 power plays. North Dakota has been called upon to kill 149 penalties and has had 144 power plays this year.

Going in to the final weekend of league play, North Dakota (42 league points) is battling with St. Cloud State (42 points) and Nebraska-Omaha (39 points) to claim the first-ever NCHC regular season title. Western Michigan (34 points), Minnesota-Duluth (34 points), and Denver (32 points) can all claim home ice for the first round of the league playoffs, while Colorado College and Miami are settled into 7th and 8th place, respectively.

Here’s the schedule for the final weekend in the NCHC:

Western Michigan at North Dakota
St. Cloud State at Colorado College
Nebraska-Omaha at Minnesota-Duluth
Miami at Denver

For those of you wondering about the possibility of an on-ice trophy presentation in one rink or another this weekend, there is an interesting article here detailing the travel plans of not one but two Penrose Cups.

Western Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: (Andy Murray, 3rd season at WMU, 56-38-19, .580)

Pairwise Ranking: 21st (tie)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 16-13-5 overall, 10-10-2 NCHC (t-4th)
Last Season: 19-11-8 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 15-7-6-3 CCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 2.68 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.3% (20 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (154 of 183)

Key Players: Senior F Shane Berschbach (14-21-35), Junior F Justin Kovacs (12-18-30), Senior F Chase Balisy (12-21-33), Sophomore D Kenney Morrison (3-15-18), Junior D Jordan Oesterle (2-12-14), Sophomore G Lukas Hafner (7-5-2, 2.14 GAA, .920 GAA, 2 shutouts)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 254-129-40, .648)

Pairwise Ranking: 9th
National Ranking: #9
This Season: 19-10-3 overall, 14-8-0-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.16 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (27 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (123 of 149)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-18-31), Sophomore F Michael Parks (10-17-27), Junior F Mark MacMillan (9-11-20), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (9-10-19), Senior D Dillon Simpson (7-14-21), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (4-16-20), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (14-6-3, 2.11 GAA, .922 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 7, 2013 (Kalamazoo, MI). WMU netminder Frank Slubowski gave up three goals on thirteen shots before being pulled early in the second period and North Dakota held on for a 3-2 road victory. Western Michigan, which outshot UND 25-16, collected two power play goals on six attempts. The Green and White also won Friday’s opener by a 3-2 score.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 1998. One night after dismantling the Broncos 12-5, the Fighting Sioux played it a bit closer to the vest in a 5-1 triumph. That North Dakota team, one year removed from a national championship, would lose only eight games on the season but would fall one game short of the Frozen Four in Boston, Massachusetts.

Most Important Meeting: March 24, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota upended Western Michigan 3-1 in the NCAA West Regional semifinal. Brock Nelson had two points, including an empty net goal with 25 seconds remaining that sent UND to the regional finals against Minnesota. Aaron Dell made 24 saves for the Green and White.

All-time Series: UND has won all seven meetings between the schools, outscoring the Broncos 37-17. The teams first met in 1997.

Game News and Notes

WMU head coach Andy Murray is in his third season behind the Bronco bench; Murray’s son, Brady, played for the Fighting Sioux from 2003-05. Western Michigan finished third in the last season of the CCHA, while North Dakota finished third in the last season of the WCHA as we knew it. UND is 9-3-0 (.750) this season when the opponent scores first. Both teams play on the narrower NHL ice surface (85 x 200 feet).

The Prediction

The first two games of this series went North Dakota’s way by identical 3-2 scores. UND has more firepower and a healthy lineup this time around, and Western Michigan is a bit shakier in net but can also score in bunches. I’ve got the Green and White winning two close games, with Saturday’s rematch a bit more wide open. UND 3-2, 4-3.

The last time these two teams met, North Dakota was ranked #5 on the young season and St. Cloud State came in to Grand Forks ranked #9 after coming off of the most successful season in program history. In 2012-13, the Huskies posted a 25-win season, claimed a share of the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA co-champions, and earned a berth in the NCAA Frozen Four (falling to Quinnipiac in the semifinals). As icing on the cake, senior forward Drew LeBlanc brought home the program’s first Hobey Baker Memorial Award.

On that November weekend in Grand Forks, SCSU swept the Green and White 3-2 and 3-1. The sweep propelled the Huskies to a 6-1-1 November record, and Bob Motzko’s squad followed that up with a 2-1-1 mark in the month of December. Since that time, however, St. Cloud has gone just 7-5-2.

UND moved in an opposite direction after that early season series. Those two losses were part of a dismal 3-6-1 November record, but the boys from Grand Forks have righted the ship since then. A December mark of 4-0-0 got things turned around, and they followed that up with a 4-1-1 January record. Coming in to this weekend’s series, North Dakota has gone 5-1-0 in the month of February and is 14-2-1 (.853) in its last 17 games.

By contrast, St. Cloud State has a record of 8-6-3 (.559) over its past 17 contests.

This weekend, the rankings are reversed. The Huskies are #5 in the polls and the Pairwise, while North Dakota has vaulted up to #10. The two teams are tied for first place in the NCHC with two weekends remaining in the season. After this weekend in St. Cloud, UND hosts Western Michigan in the final regular season series before the playoffs begin, while SCSU travels to Colorado Springs to take on the Tigers of Colorado College.

North Dakota and St. Cloud State have been paired up as schedule partners and rivals since the 2002-03 season. Two years later, the Center Ice Club created a commemorative trophy to mark the rivalry, and the two teams have been battling it out four times each season to claim the Challenge Cup.

Since that time, UND has had the better of the play, both at home (9-7-4 in the Challenge Cup era) and in St. Cloud (9-6-3). North Dakota has claimed the Cup four times, the teams have shared the trophy three times, and the Huskies won the trophy outright last season and back in 2005-06.

St. Cloud State has already clinched a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup for 2013-14, and needs to pick up one point this weekend to win the trophy outright.

North Dakota comes in blazing hot but will need to contend with a Huskies squad that has converted over 25 percent of its power plays on the season. St. Cloud is very adept at using the wider Olympic ice sheet, particularly with the man advantage.

SCSU will be without the services of defenseman Andrew Prochno this weekend. The junior from Minnetonka, Minnesota is tied for the team lead in points by a defenseman with 19 (3 goals, 16 assists, 16 penalty minutes in 30 games played). The Huskies have been rotating freshman Ben Storm (0-1-1 in 24 games) and juniors Tim Daly (1-3-4 in 24 games) and Jarrod Rabey (0-2-2 in 15 games) through two spots on the blueline, but all three will be in the lineup for this pivotal NCHC showdown.

Speaking of the blue line, North Dakota boasts the top scoring d-corps in the nation (2.93 points/game). Senior Dillon Simpson (7-13-20) and sophomore Jordan Schmaltz (4-15-19) have led the charge, but junior Nick Mattson (3-12-15) has provided some jump, and the four freshman defenseman (Gage Ausmus, Paul LaDue, Troy Stecher, and Keaton Thompson) have chipped in for 11 goals and 21 assists.

That’s a total of 23 goals and 60 assists (83 points) from the top six North Dakota defenseman.

By comparison, the six SCSU blueliners expected to be in the lineup this weekend have combined for 11 goals and 39 assists for 50 points.

Since becoming the full-time starter on November 30th, UND netminder Zane Gothberg (Thief River Falls, MN) has put up eye-popping numbers: an 11-0-1 record, a 1.37 goals-against average, a save percentage of 93.8%, and the first shutout of his young college career. Gothberg has only given up more than two goals once over that stretch, a 5-3 victory at Colorado College.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 9th season at SCSU, 180-132-40, .568)

Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 18-7-5 overall, 12-5-3-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 25-16-1 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-9-1 WCHA (t-1st)

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.2% (30 of 119)
Penalty Kill: 77.5% (79 of 102)

Key Players: Senior F Nic Dowd (18-15-33), Sophomore F Jonny Brodzinski (16-17-33), Sophomore F Kalle Kossila (12-17-29), Junior D Andrew Prochno (3-16-19), Sophomore D Ethan Prow (4-15-19), Junior G Ryan Faragher (16-6-4, 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 253-128-40, .648)

Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #10
This Season: 18-9-3 overall, 13-7-0-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.63 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.3% (27 of 140)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (116 of 141)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (12-17-29), Sophomore F Michael Parks (10-16-26), Junior F Mark MacMillan (8-10-18), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (8-10-18), Senior D Dillon Simpson (7-13-20), Sophomore D Jordan Schmaltz (4-15-19), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (13-5-3, 2.12 GAA, .922 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 2, 2013 (Grand Forks, ND). Nic Dowd picked up a goal and an assist to help the Huskies sweep homestanding North Dakota 3-1. SCSU did an excellent job of blocking shots, allowing only 17 shots on goal. St. Cloud, which won Friday’s opener 3-2, became the first team to sweep UND at Ralph Engelstad Arena since Denver turned that trick in January 2010.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: November 10, 2012. One night after Clarke Saunders stopped all 32 shots he faced in a 3-0 UND victory, St. Cloud State scored five times on 37 shots in a 5-2 contest to claim the split. Senior forward Drew LeBlanc scored twice and added an assist for the Huskies, who drew even in the race for the 2012-2013 Challenge Cup.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

Second Most Important Meeting: February 28, 2014. With everything on the line this weekend, the two teams should be ready to leave it all on the ice.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 60-35-12 (.617), including a 24-18-6 (.563) mark in games played in St. Cloud.

Last Ten: St. Cloud holds a slight 5-4-1 (.550) edge in the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring UND 23-22 over that span.

Game News and Notes

St. Cloud State is unbeaten (4-0-1) in the last five meetings between the schools. UND was a perfect 9-for-9 on the penalty kill last Saturday at Minnesota-Duluth. The Spencer Penrose Cup (awarded to the NCHC regular season champion) will be in St. Cloud this weekend. North Dakota has the top scoring defensive corps in the nation (26-62-88 in 30 games; 2.93 points/game). Friday’s opener can be seen on CBS Sports Network, with a puck drop of 8:07 p.m.

The Prediction

If these games were held on the smaller ice sheet this weekend, given the way these two teams are playing, I would lean toward giving UND a win and a tie. But St. Cloud State knows how to use the home crowd and the wider ice surface, and a split seems almost inevitable. UND 3-1, SCSU 4-2.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the St. Cloud State hockey fans. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. on the second floor of Brother’s Bar and Grill in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, enjoy a free appetizer bar, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to the public.

North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol’s teams have earned a reputation as second-half squads. In Hakstol’s ten years behind the bench, his winning percentage has been significantly better once the calendar turns to the new year. Why does UND seem to surge in the second half? Are there other factors that contribute to early-season struggles? And what should we expect from this year’s team down the stretch?

Before we get to this year’s team, let’s look back at the previous nine years under Dave Hakstol. For simplicity’s sake, I used January 1st as the midway point for analysis. First, individually:

2004-05: First half 13-7-2, Second half 12-8-3 (7-1-1 in March 2005)
2005-06: First half 13-8-1, Second half 16-8-0 (8-1-0 in March 2006)
2006-07: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-4-4 (6-1-1 in March 2007)
2007-08: First half 9-7-1, Second half 19-4-3 (7-2-2 in March 2008)
2008-09: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-5-3 (4-4-0 in March 2009)
2009-10: First half 9-6-3, Second half 16-7-2 (7-2-0 in March 2010)
2010-11: First half 14-5-2, Second half 18-3-1 (8-0-0 in March 2011)
2011-12: First half 10-8-2, Second half 16-5-1 (8-1-0 in March 2012)
2012-13: First half 10-5-3, Second half 12-8-4 (5-4-1 in March 2013)

And combined 2004-13: First half 96-66-16 (.584) Second half 138-48-19 (.720), 60-16-5 (.772) in March

As you can see, the first two seasons do not necessarily fit the category of “second half surges”. It is interesting to note, however, that in both of those years, the record in the month of March was significantly better than the rest of the season.

The first season where the phrase “second half surge” became widely used was in 2006-07. Not only did the Sioux only lose four games from January until April, the team went on an 11 game unbeaten streak (8-0-3) in January and February. And the 2008-09 North Dakota club went 18 games without a loss (15-0-3) in the second half, again collecting only four losses after New Year’s Day.

The other two teams that did not fit the “second half surge” trend were the 2010-11 squad (which was consistently excellent all season long) and last year’s team, which posted eight losses in the second half, including four losses in March.

And this year’s squad:

2013-14: First half 9-7-2, Second falf 9-2-1

The latest version of the second half surge is even more pronounced if one marks December 1st as the midway point. This most recent surge has produced a stretch of 17 games during which North Dakota has gone 14-2-1.

Each team has its own personality, makeup, and character, but there seems to be a common thread running through Dave Hakstol’s tenure at North Dakota: early season struggles and growing pains lead to consistency in the second half, culminating in an excellent winning percentage during tournament time (albeit a dismal 1-5 record in April).

What factors contribute to the early season struggles? For me, it boils down to a team’s identity. Included in that are several questions:

What type of team will each year’s roster become?
Who will handle the goaltending duties?
What types of injuries will they have to overcome?
With early departures, how long will it take the returning players to find and define roles?
Will the incoming freshman class contribute?
Who will handle the key special teams roles, and how long before those units find success?

I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is the only school that has to handle these issues each season; I’m simply bringing them up in an attempt to illustrate that coaching is not an exact science. There is no “magic button”, it’s a process. Early on, I heard Hakstol comment many times that despite the losses, he liked this team and believed that they were very close to playing up to their capabilities.

The biggest factors for this season’s early struggles were goaltending and injuries.

The rotation of Zane Gothberg and Clarke Saunders did not work out very well. Before Gothberg became the full-time starter on November 30th, UND was 4-7-2. Since then, the Green and White are 14-2-1. In twelve games as the number-one goaltender, the sophomore has posted a ridiculous stat line:

11-0-1, 1.37 goals-against average, .938 save percentage, 1 shutout

During that stretch, Gothberg has allowed more than two goals just once, a 5-3 victory over Colorado College.

Other factors that have contributed to the success over the past three months have been an improved power play, a healthy lineup, and key contributions from the blue line.

Over the past three games, for example, UND has gone 6 for 15 on the power play (40%). Over the past four games, North Dakota’s blueliners have accounted for eight goals and 13 assists for 21 points. And a healthy Green and White lineup means that players like Mark MacMillan, Michael Parks, Drake Caggiula, and Rocco Grimaldi can be spread across two lines, making UND more difficult to defend. Over the past four games, North Dakota’s big four forwards have tallied seven goals and added 14 assists for 21 points.

The rest of this discussion is up to you. Is there truth to the second half surge? Is it math or myth? And what do you expect from this year’s team the rest of the way? Leave your comments and let me know what you think.