Sioux Sports Talk

A quick rewind to March 2014:

Plenty was written about the roller coaster ride of emotions that North Dakota faced after defeating Western Michigan 5-0 in the 3rd place game of the NCHC tournament (Target Center, Minneapolis, MN). The team had done its part, but needed some help to make the NCAAs.

That help came in the form of the Wisconsin Badgers, former WCHA foe and long-time rival. On Saturday night, across the river at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Bucky was facing Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament championship. Down 4-2 with seven minutes remaining, UW scored twice in twenty seconds and rang a shot off the post in overtime before Mark Zengerle notched the game-winner at 7:48 of the first extra session.

To be fair, North Dakota’s 23-13-3 record and second-place finish in the NCHC would have been good enough for an at-large bid in most seasons. But the new league did not fare well out of conference (37-31-16, .536), including an abysmal 9-17-8 (.382) mark against Hockey East and the ECAC.

Thanks to Wisconsin, UND had new life and nothing to lose. #4 North Dakota managed to defeat the top-seeded Badgers (UW had gone 20-5-1 since November 30th, 2013) and outlasted #2 seed Ferris State for a trip to the Frozen Four (Philadelphia, PA).

Since that regional semifinal twenty months ago, the Badgers have become virtually unrecognizable. One of the criticisms leveled against UW head coach Mike Eaves is that he recruits in a cycle, bringing in huge freshman classes every four years in the hopes that a dominant senior class will bring a title to Madison down the road.

And it worked. Once. In 2006, the Badgers won a national championship on the backs of three seniors (forwards Adam Burish and Ryan MacMurchy and defenseman Tom Gilbert) plus forwards Joe Pavelski and Robbie Earl, underclassmen who left the program after that season. Mike Eaves came close four years later, but Wisconsin fell to Boston College 5-0 in the title game. North Dakota derailed UW’s title hopes at the end of the 2014 season, and now Bucky is left to rebuild again.

So is that one championship in Mike Eave’s previous 13 seasons enough to satisfy the fans in Madtown? The attendance figures at the Kohl Center suggest otherwise. Season ticket sales are down 52 percent from their 2006 championship campaign, and the Badgers are only drawing 7,239 fans per game so far this season. Here’s why:

In the three strongest seasons under Mike Eaves (2006, 2010, 2014), the Badgers went 82-32-9 for a winning percentage of .703. But in the other ten seasons, Wisconsin went just 177-174-49 (.504).

The 2014-15 season (4-26-5, .186) was historically bad for UW hockey. Before that, the last time Bucky won fewer than ten games was in 1963-64, when the Badgers went 8-5-3 in the first season of the modern era of UW hockey (Wisconsin also played as an independent from 1921 to 1935). That’s a stretch of 50 years without a season as bad as last year was for Mike Eaves.

And it’s more of the same this year. The Badgers are 2-2-3 on the young season, with two home victories over first-year Division 1 program Arizona State. Those two victories broke a 14 game winless streak for Mike Eaves, and it doesn’t get any easier this weekend.

The Brad Berry head coaching era at the University of North Dakota is off to a white-hot start, as #1 UND is unbeaten in its first eight games (6-0-2) despite playing only one of those games at home. Aside from Cornell, Harvard, and Yale (three ECAC schools that have just begun their season and are currently 2-0), only #2 Providence (6-0-1) and #5 Quinnipiac (6-0-0) remain among the unbeaten.

North Dakota has been dominant 5 on 5 this season, outscoring opponents 19-7 over the first eight games of the year. Despite the fact that UND has scored and allowed six power play goals this season, Brad Berry’s crew has been deeper offensively in every series and is outscoring opponents by two full goals per game. One measure of offensive talent up and down the roster is the number of players who are scoring at least one point every weekend (0.5 points per game or better). Currently, 11 North Dakota skaters are at that mark, including four defensemen. To this point in the season, Wisconsin has eight, and only two other teams in the NCHC have more (Denver and Western Michigan each have 12).

UND’s penalty kill has improved after a dismal start. Over the first three games, North Dakota’s opponents scored five power play goals in 12 opportunities (a penalty kill mark of just 58.3%). Since that time, UND has only allowed one power play goal in 18 opportunities (94.4%) while scoring a shorthanded goal (Rhett Gardner’s game winning shorthanded tally at Colorado College). The improvement is due in large part to junior netminder Matt Hrnkiw, who is much more comfortable in the crease than when he was first forced in to action against Bemidji State on October 16th.

Hrnkiw has been the MVP of the season to this point, filling in for Cam Johnson and Matej Tomek as both recover from injuries. Hrnkiw, who did not see the ice in his first two seasons at North Dakota, has not allowed more than two goals in any contest this season and has posted a goals-against average of 1.48 (11th best in the country) and a save percentage of .942 (13th) to go along with his two shutouts (3rd).

His counterpart in the Badger crease this weekend will be freshman goaltender Matt Jurusik, who has done a capable job to this point in the year. Jurusik has difficult skates to fill, as he replaces four-year starter Joel Rumpel. Rumpel, who appeared in 114 games as a Badger, had a record of 49-27-7 with a 2.16 GAA and a .926 SV% before last season crushed his career statistics. Rumpel finished with a line of 53-50-11, 2.51 GAA, .918 SV%.

Junior forward Grant Besse continues to be a bright spot for the Badgers. Besse has collected 22 goals and 22 assists in his UW career (76 games) and has scored eight points in eight games this season.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (14th season at UW, 261-209-61, .549)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 2-3-3 overall, 0-0-0 Big Ten
Last Season: 4-26-5 overall, 2-15-3-2 Big Ten (6th of 6 teams)

Team Offense: 2.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (8 of 36)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (27 of 32)

Key Players: Junior F Grant Besse (3-5-8), Freshman F Seamus Malone (2-5-7), Freshman F Luke Kunin (2-4-6), Sophomore F Ryan Wagner (3-2-5), Senior D Kevin Schulze (0-4-4), Sophomore D Jake Linhart (2-1-3), Freshman G Matt Jurusik (2-2-2, 2.84 GAA, .904 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (1st season at UND, 6-0-2, .875)
National Ranking: #1/#1
This Season: 6-0-2 overall, 2-0-0-0 NCHC (t-1st)
Last Season: 29-10-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 16-6-2-0 NCHC (1st out of 8 teams)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.62 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (6 of 33)
Penalty Kill: 80.0% (24 of 30)

Key Players: Senior F Drake Caggiula (2-7-9), Sophomore F Nick Schmaltz (0-6-6), Senior F Bryn Chyzyk (5-2-7), Freshman F Brock Boeser (5-2-7), Junior D Paul LaDue (0-1-1), Junior D Troy Stecher (2-5-7), Junior G Matt Hyrnkiw (5-0-1, 1.48 GAA, .942 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 8, 2014 (Madison, WI). #2 North Dakota scored three third period goals in a six minute stretch to turn a 2-1 contest into a 5-1 victory and a road sweep. 11 different players figured into the scoring for UND, while junior netminder Zane McIntyre stopped 23 of 24 shots, allowing only a second period tally to Grant Besse. North Dakota won Friday’s opener 4-3 behind two goals from Michael Parks, who scored the shorthanded game winner with under eight minutes remaining in the game. Wisconsin’s Grant Besse figured into three of the four Badger goals on the weekend.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 2, 2013. One night after the teams skated to a 1-1 overtime tie, UND built a 4-0 lead after two periods en route to a 4-1 victory. Mark MacMillan scored a power play goal just 45 seconds into the rematch, and Michael Parks added two goals in the middle frame for North Dakota. It was the last meeting between the two schools as members of the WCHA.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982 (Providence, RI). A 2-2 tie after two periods turned into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes netted a hat trick and led UND to its fourth National Championship. Glen White scored the first goal of the game for North Dakota and assisted on two of Sykes’ goals. Darren Jensen backstopped the Green and White and was named to the all-tournament team along with Sykes, defenseman James Patrick, and forward Cary Eades. This title would be the second of three North Dakota titles won at the Providence Civic Center (1980, 2000).

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-68-12 (.554), including a 36-33-9 (.519) record in Madison. The teams first met in December 1968.

Last Ten: The Green and White have had Bucky’s number lately, going 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten tilts. UND is unbeaten in the last seven (6-0-1), outscoring UW 28-13.

Game News and Notes

Wisconsin has just one victory in its last 22 road games. At 6-0-2, North Dakota currently has the longest unbeaten streak to start a season since 1999-2000, when the eventual national champions opened the year 8-0-1 before falling 6-5 to Minnesota State in the Mavericks’ first season in the WCHA. The Badgers outshot Arizona State 56-19 in Friday’s 5-1 victory. UND senior forward Drake Caggiula, the nation’s leader in career games played (131), will be unavailable for Friday’s opener due to a one game suspension handed down by the league. Assuming Minnesota State senior forward Bryce Gervais (130 career games played) suits up for the Mavericks tonight, he will tie Caggiula for the top spot.

Media Coverage

This weekend’s series against Wisconsin is televised on MidcoSports Network, and a webcast of both games is available to NCHC.tv subscribers. All UND men’s hockey games (home and away) can be heard on 96.1 FM and on stations across the UND Sports Network (as well as through the iHeart Radio app). Follow @UNDMHockey for real-time Twitter updates, or follow the action via live chat at UNDsports.com.

The Prediction

UND will easily score eight goals this weekend, so the only question is whether they win a couple of 4-2 games or whether one game becomes a blowout. I’ve got a close one on Friday night, with Drake Caggiula’s return to the lineup on Saturday sparking the North Dakota offense. UND 3-2,2, 5-2.

In the first two seasons of the NCHC, North Dakota has won 31 league games, while Colorado College has managed to win just eight. If we look more closely at last season, the numbers are even worse for the Tigers. UND went 16-6-2-0, claiming the Penrose Cup and posting the best record in the two-year history of the league. The Tigers were historically bad in 2014-15, winning just two league games (2-19-3-1) all season.

The boys from Colorado Springs have not been able to score or stop anyone from scoring. Over the last twenty games dating back to last season, CC has given up three or more goals 15 times and scored more than two goals only six times. As a result, Colorado College has been outscored 77-37 in that stretch and sputtered to record of 1-17-2 over the past twenty games.

The feeling among the Tiger faithful is that new blood behind the bench will eventually translate into new life on the ice. Second-year head coach Mike Haviland is new to Division I hockey, but he was named the AHL coach of the year in 2006-07 (Norfolk Admirals) and served as an assistant coach with the Chicago Blackhawks for four seasons (2008-12), winning a Stanley Cup in 2010. He was most recently head coach for the AHL’s Hershey Bears.

UND and Colorado College met six times last season (twice in Colorado Springs), with North Dakota winning all six games and outscoring the Tigers 25-10. Without those six victories, UND’s record last year would have looked far less impressive at 23-10-3 (.681).

This weekend’s games, the first of the conference season, are critical for UND’s Penrose Cup hopes. Last year, North Dakota went 10-2-0 against the bottom four teams in the league (Colorado College, Western Michigan, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota-Duluth) en route to a 16-6-2 conference mark and the NCHC regular season title. A second reward for the Green and White was a first-round playoff series against Colorado College, the 13th time in a row that UND hosted the opening round of the conference tournament. The Green and White dispatched the Tigers in two games (5-1, 3-2) and advanced to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff.

After this weekend, North Dakota will have played seven of its eight October games on the road, with only a single home game versus Bemidji State(a 5-2 victory) to satisfy the fans in Grand Forks. Beginning with a November visit from the Wisconsin Badgers, however, UND will have eight home series and only six weekends away from Ralph Engelstad Arena.

North Dakota killed all four Vermont power plays last weekend and raised its penalty kill percentage to 72.2% (48th best in the country). This stat will need continually improve if the boys from Grand Forks want to compete for a league title again this year. In the first four games of the season, UND surrendered a total of five power play goals (to put that in perspective, Dave Hakstol’s group allowed only 27 power play goals in 42 games last year). The penalty kill numbers will improve as the goaltending situation improves (UND’s top two netminders – Matej Tomek and Cam Johnson – are both out with injury), but until that happens, the key will be to stay out of the penalty box.

The NCHC led all leagues last season with a sparkling record against the other five conferences, and in doing so placed six teams in the NCAA tournament. And this year, the eight teams in the league have gone 24-14-6 (.587) to place second (the ECAC is first at 21-10-4, .657). Last season, Dave Hakstol’s squad went 9-1-1 in regular season non-conference action and advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four. After a 4-0-2 start outside the NCHC, North Dakota’s other non-conference opponents this season will be Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Alabama-Huntsville (all currently unranked). UND has lost just once in its last 21 nonconference games (16-1-4) dating back to the second half of the 2013-14 season.

Saturday’s series finale will mark the first time that North Dakota will play on Halloween since 2008-09, when UND defeated Wisconsin 3-2. That victory pushed North Dakota’s all-time record on October 31st to 6-3-0. UND and Colorado College have never met on Halloween.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Haviland (2nd season at CC, 6-32-3, .183)
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 0-6-0 overall, 0-0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 6-26-3 overall, 2-19-3-1 NCHC (8th)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 1.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.3% (4 of 28)
Penalty Kill: 76.7% (23 of 30)

Key players: Senior F Cody Bradley (1-2-3), Senior F Hunter Fejes (1-0-1), Junior F Sam Rothstein (0-3-3), Freshman F Trey Bradley (3-1-4), Sophomore D Teemu Kivihalme (1-3-4), Freshman D Andrew Farny (0-2-2), Junior G Tyler Marble (0-2-0, 3.44 GAA, .877 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (1st season at UND, 4-0-2, .833)
National Ranking: #1/#2
This Season: 4-0-2 overall, 0-0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 29-10-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 16-6-2-0 NCHC (1st out of 8 teams)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.67 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (5 of 25)
Penalty Kill: 72.2% (13 of 18)

Key Players: Senior F Drake Caggiula (2-6-8), Sophomore F Nick Schmaltz (0-5-5), Senior F Bryn Chyzyk (5-1-6), Freshman F Brock Boeser (4-2-6), Junior D Paul LaDue (0-1-1), Junior D Troy Stecher (2-4-6), Junior G Matt Hyrnkiw (3-0-1, 1.76 GAA, .933 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 14, 2015 (Grand Forks, ND). Senior forward Connor Gaarder potted the game-winner with under 90 seconds remaining in the hockey game to propel UND to a 3-2 victory over the visiting Tigers. Colorado College forward Luc Gerdes scored a wraparound goal at 6:10 of the third period to knot the game at 2. CC outshot the Green and White 33-31, but Zane McIntyre was up to the challenge, making 31 saves in the victory. North Dakota won Friday’s opener by a much more comfortable 5-1 margin.

Last Meeting in Colorado Springs: October 18, 2014. UND blitzed the homestanding Tigers with four goals in the opening frame before cruising to a 7-2 victory. The visitors from Grand Forks went 5-for-9 on the power play and added two shorthanded goals. Senior forward Mark MacMillan scored a rare empty net shorthanded goal for his hat trick, and added two assists for good measure. North Dakota won Friday’s opener 3-1.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 149-80-10 (.644), although Colorado College has had the advantage at altitude (6,035 feet), going 57-50-4 (.532) in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won nine of the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring CC 38-20 over that span. The only Tigers victory was an overtime win in the 2014 NCHC quarterfinals. Seventeen of the last nineteen games have been decided by two goals or less.

Game News and Notes

Four of the Tigers’ nine goals this season have come with the man advantage. UND went the entire 2014-15 season without being swept on the road (11-4-0 during the regular season away from Ralph Engelstad Arena last year). Colorado College has only scored one first period goal in six games this season. North Dakota senior forward Drake Caggiula, who leads all current NCAA men’s hockey players in career games played with 129, has already faced CC 16 times in his career, collecting 13 points (eight goals, five assists).

Media Coverage

This weekend’s series at Colorado College will not be televised, but a webcast of both games is available to NCHC.tv subscribers. All UND men’s hockey games (home and away) can be heard on 96.1 FM and on stations across the UND Sports Network (as well as through the iHeart Radio app). Follow @UNDMHockey for real-time Twitter updates, or follow the action via live chat at UNDsports.com.

The Prediction

UND has been rolling and Colorado College has been stumbling. Furthermore, the boys from Grand Forks can expect a predominantly green and white crowd at World Arena, proving yet again that for UND hockey, it’s always a home game. If the Tigers’ power play gets clicking, they could make one game close. North Dakota will sweep and end October with a sparkling 6-0-2 record. UND 5-1, 4-2.

There are plenty of unanswered questions heading into the third season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, a league that sent six teams to the NCAA tournament a year ago.

And there’s a recurring theme: the teams with an established goaltender feel like they can contend for the league title and beyond, and the teams with question marks between the pipes will be searching for answers.

Minnesota-Duluth (Kasimir Kaskisuo, career record of 20-15-5), Denver (Tanner Jaillet, 16-9-0), Miami (Ryan McKay, 32-27-7), St. Cloud State (Charlie Lindgren, 24-22-2), Western Michigan (Lukas Hafner, 21-19-8), and Colorado College (Tyler Marble, 5-20-2) all appear to have their goalie situations solidified, while North Dakota and Nebraska-Omaha are dealing with the losses of Zane McIntyre (58-24-9) and Ryan Massa (32-27-9), respectively.

There are two main reasons why goaltending is more important now than ever. The first is that games are more tightly contested than ever before, with most league games decided by one or two goals. And the second is that teams will rely on their netminders (especially early in the season) as new and returning players adjust to new roles and new linemates.

On the offensive side of the ledger, four top-tier teams lost more than 40 percent of their goal scoring from last season, while Minnesota-Duluth and Nebraska-Omaha have more than 80 percent of their offense returning.

Here’s how the teams ended up last season, the second year of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference (goals returning, total goals last season, % of offense returning)

1. North Dakota (69 of 138, 50.0 percent)
2. Miami (57 of 130, 43.8 percent)
3. Nebraska-Omaha (97 of 105, 92.4 percent)
4. Denver (72 of 131, 55.0 percent)
5. Minnesota-Duluth (94 of 115, 81.7 percent)
6. St. Cloud State (56 of 109, 51.4 percent)
7. Western Michigan (64 of 98, 65.3 percent)
8. Colorado College (52 of 74, 70.3 percent)

And here are the combined league records for each school over the first two seasons of the NCHC:

1. North Dakota 31-15-2-0 (95 points)
2. Nebraska-Omaha 25-17-6-4 (85 points)
3. St. Cloud State 26-18-4-0 (82 points)
4. Minnesota-Duluth 23-20-5-2 (76 points)
4. Denver 23-21-4-3 (76 points)
6. Miami 20-26-2-2 (64 points)
6. Western Michigan 17-24-7-6 (64 points)
8. Colorado College 8-32-8-2 (34 points)

What follows is my prediction for the league standings, from #8 all the way up to #1 (media prediction in parenthesis). For the first time, my predictions are identical to the final preseason poll.

#8 Colorado College (#8 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Mike Haviland (2nd season at CC, 6-32-3, .183)

2014-15 Season: 6-26-3 overall, 2-19-3-1 NCHC (8th)
Team Offense: 2.11 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.89 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (26 of 130)
Penalty Kill: 77.9% (106 of 136)

Key graduation losses: F Scott Wamsganz (8-11-19), F Charlie Taft (4-4-8), D Peter Stoykewych (3-8-11)

Early departure: D Jaccob Slavin (5-12-17)

Key returning players: Senior F Cody Bradley (10-20-30), Senior F Hunter Fejes (5-14-19), Junior F Sam Rothstein (6-8-14), Junior F Luc Gerdes (4-8-12), Sophomore D Teemu Kivihalme (5-6-11), Sophomore D Garrett Cecere (0-3-3), Junior G Tyler Marble (5-18-2, 3.48 GAA, .896 SV%, 1 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Trey Bradley, F Trevor Gooch, F Mason Bergh, D Andrew Farny, D David Radke

2015-16 season outlook: Mike Haviland has had success in the coaching ranks, but he’ll have to do it with 14 freshman and only four seniors on his roster. Netminder Tyler Marble has appeared in 30 career games and could keep the Tigers competitive, but I don’t see much here that leads me to believe that Colorado College will climb out of the basement.

#7 Western Michigan Broncos (#7 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Andy Murray (5th season at WMU, 75-61-25, .543)

2014-15 Season: 14-18-5 overall, 6-13-5-4 NCHC (7th)
Team Offense: 2.65 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.89 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (29 of 145)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (145 of 179)

Key graduation losses: F Justin Kovacs (6-20-26), F Will Kessel (7-13-20), D Matt Stewart (2-4-6), G Frank Slubowski (3-6-0, 3.55 GAA, .884 SV%)

Early departures: F Colton Hargrove (14-14-28), D Kenny Morrison (5-10-15)

Key returning players: Junior F Sheldon Dries (14-15-29), Senior F Nolan LaPorte (11-12-23), Sophomore F Frederik Tiffels (11-10-21), Junior D Chris Dienes (3-14-17), Senior G Lukas Hafner (11-12-5, 2.42 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Griffen Molino, F Colt Conrad, F Matheson Iacopelli, D Oliwer Kaski, D Corey Schueneman

2015-16 season outlook: Western Michigan is perhaps the most physically intimidating team in the league, but can they score enough and kill enough penalties to be relevant in the NCHC? Andy Murray’s club will be miserable to play against, but three goals will be enough to top WMU on most nights.

#6 St. Cloud State Huskies (#6 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (11th season at SCSU, 208-157-41, .563)

2014-15 Season: 20-19-1 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 11-12-1-0 NCHC (6th)
Team Offense: 2.73 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.42 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.7% (37 of 156)
Penalty Kill: 80.3% (94 of 117)

Key graduation losses: F David Morley (17-12-29), F Joe Rehkamp (5-14-19), F Nick Oliver (3-2-5), D Andrew Prochno (3-12-15), D Tim Daly (1-7-8)

Early departure: F Jonny Brodzinski (21-17-38)

Key returning players: Senior F Joey Benik (16-23-39), Senior F Kalle Kossila (6-20-26), Sophomore F Patrick Russell (10-15-25), Senior D Ethan Prow (4-19-23), Junior G Charlie Lindgrem (19-18-1, 2.26 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Robby Jackson, F Mikey Eyssimont, F Jacob Benson, D Jon Lizotte, D Jimmy Schuldt

2015-16 season outlook: After winning back-to-back conference titles, the Huskies fell to 6th place in the NCHC last year. While SCSU consistently scored with the man advantage, the rest of the offense suffered. St. Cloud State only scored 1.65 even strength goals per game in 2014-15 after posting a much more respectable 2.42 goals per game in the same category two seasons ago. If Bob Motzko’s crew wants to contend for an upper-division finish, balanced scoring is key.

#5 Miami RedHawks (#5 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (17th season at Miami, 354-232-58, .595)

2014-15 Season: 25-14-1 overall (NCAA East Regional semifinalist, 14-9-1-1 NCHC (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.25 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.5% (33 of 169)
Penalty Kill: 83.6% (138 of 165)

Key graduation losses: F Austin Czarnik (9-36-45), F Blake Coleman (20-17-37), F Cody Murphy (13-11-24), F Alex Wideman (7-11-18), D Ben Paulides (3-7-10)

Early departure: F Riley Barber (20-20-40)

Key returning players: Junior F Anthony Louis (9-27-36), Senior F Sean Kuraly (19-10-29), Senior F Kevin Morris (5-9-14), Senior D Matthew Caito (4-20-24), Sophomore D Louis Belpedio (6-13-19), Senior G Jay Williams (19-8-0, 2.04 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 SO)

Potential impact freshman: F Jack Roslovic, F Josh Melnick, F Keifer Sherwood, D Grant Hutton

2015-16 season outlook: Miami lost more goal scoring from last season than any other team in the league, as last year’s seniors and Riley Barber accounted for 73 of the RedHawks 130 goals a year ago. Who is going to pick up the slack? I can’t quite put Miami in the top half of the conference just yet, but Jay Williams (five shutouts in 2014-15) could provide all the support they need.

#4 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (#4 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Dean Blais (7th season at UNO, 117-99-24, .538)

2014-15 Season: 20-13-6 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 12-8-4-3 NCHC (3rd)
Team Offense: 2.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.31 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.3% (28 of 145)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (113 of 135)

Key graduation losses: F Dominic Zombo (5-9-14), G Ryan Massa (14-8-6, 1.96 GAA, .939 SV%, 2 SO)

Early departures: none

Key returning players: Junior F Jake Guentzel (14-25-39), Junior F Austin Ortega (20-17-37), Sophomore F Jake Randolph (5-21-26), Junior F Justin Parizek (13-8-21), Junior D Ian Brady (5-16-21), Senior D Brian Cooper (5-11-16), Junior G Kirk Thompson (5-5-0, 2.70 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Fredrik Olofsson, F Steven Spinner, F Ryan Galt, D Lukas Buchta

2015-16 season outlook: UNO has almost everyone back from last season’s Frozen Four team. But there are still some question marks: How will the Mavericks respond to heightened expectations and a brand-new arena? Will goaltender Kirk Thompson be able to carry the load now that Ryan Massa has graduated? And finally, UNO was outshot in twenty games last season but won 13 of those. Can that trend continue?

#3 North Dakota (#3 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Brad Berry (1st season at UND, 4-0-2, .833)

2014-15 Season: 29-10-3 (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 16-6-2-0 NCHC (1st)
Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.24 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.4% (34 of 167)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (142 of 169)

Key graduation losses: F Michael Parks (12-20-32), F Mark MacMillan (16-9-25), F Brendan O’Donnell (13-8-21), F Connor Gaarder (10-10-20), D Nick Mattson (4-17-21)

Early departures: D Jordan Schmaltz (4-24-28), G Zane McIntyre (29-10-3, 2.05 GAA, .929 SV%, 1 SO)

Key returning players: Senior F Drake Caggiula (18-18-36), Sophomore F Nick Schmaltz (5-21-26), Junior F Luke Johnson (11-13-24), Junior D Paul LaDue (5-17-22), Sophomore D Tucker Poolman (8-10-18), Junior D Troy Stecher (3-10-13)

Potential impact freshmen: F Brock Boeser, F Chris Wilkie, F Shane Gersich, D Christian Wolanin, G Matej Tomek

2015-16 season outlook: Before the season started, the question was whether Cam Johnson or Matej Tomek would take over the crease from Mike Richter Award winner/Hobey Baker finalist Zane McIntyre. And now both Tomek and Johnson are injured. The job is left (for now) to junior walkon Matt Hrynkiw, and he’s been up to the challenge so far. But league games are a whole different story. If North Dakota can score enough goals until someone solidifies the goaltending position, Brad Berry’s club might be looking at back-to-back Penrose Cups.

#2 Denver Pioneers (#2 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Jim Montgomery (3rd season at DU, 47-31-8, .593)

2014-15 Season: 24-14-2 overall (NCAA East Regional finalist), 13-10-1-1 NCHC (4th)
Team Offense: 3.27 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.48 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (32 of 145)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (107 of 130)

Key graduation losses: F Daniel Doremus (11-23-34), F Zac Larraza (12-8-20), F Ty Loney (10-6-16), D Joey LaLeggia (15-25-40), D Josiah Didier (3-8-11)

Early departures: none

Key returning players: Sophomore F Danton Heinen (16-29-45), Junior F Trevor Moore (22-22-44), Senior F Quentin Shore (10-16-26), Senior D Nolan Zajac (5-21-26), Junior D Will Butcher (4-14-28), Junior G Evan Cowley (9-6-2, 2.16 GAA, .924 SV%, 3 SO), Sophomore G Tanner Jaillet (15-8-0, 2.35 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Logan O’Connor, F Jarid Lukosevicius, F Dylan Gambrell, D Blake Hillman

2015-16 season outlook: Denver went 15-5 at home last season but struggled to a 9-9-2 record on the road and at neutral sites. In order to make a deep playoff run again, the Pios will need to improve away from Magness Arena. DU has the luxury of two proven netminders and should make a push for the league title.

#1 Minnesota-Duluth (#1 in the media poll)

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (16th season at UMD, 270-262-72, .507)

2014-15 Season: 21-16-3 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional finalist, 12-9-3-0 NCHC (5th)
Team Offense: 2.88 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.42 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.4% (29 of 158)
Penalty Kill: 81.6% (124 of 152)

Key graduation losses: F Justin Crandall (13-10-23), F Adam Krause (7-10-17), D Derik Johnson (1-4-5)

Early departures: none

Key returning players: Senior F Tony Cameranesi (9-21-30), Junior F Dominic Toninato (16-10-26), Junior F Alex Iafallo (8-17-25), Senior F Austin Farley (8-16-24), Senior D Andy Welinski (9-12-21), Junior D Willie Raskob (4-13-17), Junior D Carson Soucy (6-8-14), Sophomore G Kasimir Kaskisuo (18-14-3, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO)

Potential impact freshmen: F Adam Johnson, F Parker Mackay, D Neal Pionk

2015-16 season outlook: Duluth is a legitimate title contender this year, with almost all of the key pieces returning. The Bulldogs tightened up defensively last season and could be even better this time around. If UMD stays healthy, they will have their most successful season since 2011, when Scott Sandelin hung a national championship banner inside the DECC.

So there you have it. Do you agree? Disagree? Who do you have coming out on top? Feel free to post your predictions below, and check back in December for a midseason report.

Vermont is opening up the 2015-16 season by playing arguably the toughest schedule in the country. The Catamounts began the year by blanking #9 Minnesota 3-0 at Mariucci Arena. #3 Nebraska-Omaha traveled to Vermont last weekend and swept the home team in two tight contests. And after this weekend’s test against #1 North Dakota, Kevin Sneddon’s club will face #7 Massachusetts-Lowell, #8 Boston University, #17 St. Lawrence, and #18 Union, all before the Christmas break.

This trip to Burlington (the first ever for North Dakota men’s hockey) is the second half of a schedule agreement that brought Vermont to Grand Forks in October 2013 (North Dakota earned a win and a tie in that series). Despite the fact that Vermont and UND have only met four times on the ice, the Catamounts roster (and particularly its blueline) has North Dakota fingerprints all over it.

Defenseman Dan Senkbeil (affectionately known as “Jim” or “Jimmer”) transferred to Vermont after playing his first two years at UND. Senkbeil sat out a season due to NCAA transfer rules and is now in his final season with Vermont. And senior defenseman Yvan Pattyn, the Catamounts’ captain, is the younger brother of former UND forward (and captain) Stephane Pattyn.

North Dakota is playing in its third season in the National Collegiate Hockey Conference after 54 seasons in the WCHA. Vermont went through a similar transition 12 years ago, moving to Hockey East after 31 years in the ECAC. Catamounts head coach Kevin Sneddon took Vermont to the Frozen Four in 2008-09 and back to the NCAA tournament the following season and in 2013-14, but he also had a three year stretch (2010-13) where his teams only won 25 games. Combined.

These early season games are critical for UND’s postseason aspirations. Last season, Dave Hakstol’s squad went 9-1-1 in regular season non-conference action and advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four. North Dakota’s other non-conference opponents this season will be Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Alabama-Huntsville (all currently unranked). UND enters this week’s series at Vermont having lost just once in its last 19 nonconference games (14-1-4) dating back to the second half of the 2013-14 season.

Seven of North Dakota’s eight October games will be played on the road, with only Saturday’s home opener versus Bemidji State to satisfy the fans in Grand Forks. Beginning with a November visit from the Wisconsin Badgers, however, UND will have eight home series and only six weekends away from Ralph Engelstad Arena.

North Dakota’s penalty kill (64.3%, 49th in the country) will need to improve if the boys from Grand Forks want to compete for a league title again this year. In the first four games of the season, UND has surrendered a total of five power play goals (to put that in perspective, Dave Hakstol’s group allowed only 27 power play goals in 42 games last year). The struggle was especially apparent against last Friday night, as three Beaver power play goals fueled the Bemidji State comeback and North Dakota had to settle for a 4-4 tie despite allowing only 20 shots on goal.

The penalty kill numbers will improve as the goaltending situation improves (UND’s top two netminders – Matej Tomek and Cam Johnson – are both out with injury), but until that happens, the key will be to stay out of the penalty box.

Vermont Team Profile

Head Coach: Kevin Sneddon (13th season at Vermont, 190-206-60, .482)
National Ranking: NR/NR
This Season: 1-2-0 overall, 0-0-0 Hockey East
Last Season: 22-15-4 overall, 10-9-3 Hockey East (7th out of 12 teams)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.33 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Penalty Kill: 92.3% (12 of 13)

Key Players: Junior F Mario Puskarich (3-1-4), Junior F Tom Forgione (1-1-2), Freshman F Liam Coughlin (0-2-2), Senior D Alexx Privitera (0-2-2), Junior D Rob Hamilton (0-2-2), Junior G Mike Santaguida (1-2-0, 2.03 GAA,.917 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (1st season at UND, 2-0-2, .750)
National Ranking: #1/#1
This Season: 2-0-2 overall, 0-0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 29-10-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 16-6-2-0 NCHC (1st out of 8 teams)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (4 of 18)
Penalty Kill: 64.3% (9 of 14)

Key Players: Senior F Drake Caggiula (1-5-6), Sophomore F Nick Schmaltz (0-3-3), Senior F Bryn Chyzyk (3-1-4), Junior F Luke Johnson (1-2-3), Junior D Paul LaDue (0-1-1), Junior D Troy Stecher (1-4-5), Junior G Matt Hyrnkiw (1-0-1, 2.82 GAA, .879 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 12, 2013 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota built an early 2-0 lead but could not make it hold up against the visitors from Vermont. Chris McCarthy’s shorthanded goal evened the game up at 2-2, and UND’s late push to win the game resulted in three shots off the post. Catamounts netminder Mike Santaguida made 31 saves, including 23 over the first two periods, to earn the tie. UND won Friday’s opener 5-3.

Most Lopsided Meeting: November 27, 1999 (Durham, NH). The Fighting Sioux blitzed the Catamounts 8-0 in the opening round of the UNH Classic. Bryan Lundbohm scored twice, Jason Ulmer picked up three points (2g, 1a), and Jeff Panzer notched three assists for North Dakota, which went 4-for-4 with the man advantage. UND would fall to host New Hampshire 6-2 in the championship game.

Most Important Meeting: Considering the two schools have only met four times on the ice, I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting, with both teams looking to set the tone early in the season.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 3-0-1 (.875), outscoring the Catamounts 22-10 in those four games. The teams have never played in Vermont.

Game News and Notes

Gutterson Fieldhouse (capacity 4,035) holds an ice sheet that is 200 feet long and 90 feet wide (five feet wider than NHL ice). UND senior forward Drake Caggiula has two goals and two assists in two career games against the Catamounts. Caggiula leads all current NCAA men’s hockey players in career games played (127). North Dakota went 16-3-3 on the road last season.

Media Coverage

This weekend’s series at Vermont will not be televised, but a free live stream of both games will be available here. All UND men’s hockey games (home and away) can be heard on 96.1 FM and on stations across the UND Sports Network (as well as through the iHeart Radio app). Follow @UNDMHockey for real-time Twitter updates, or follow the action via live chat at UNDsports.com.

The Prediction

Vermont will keep the games close by scoring with the man advantage. UND will earn a sweep by staying out of the penalty box. If each side gets their share of power play opportunities, it’s anyone’s guess. I have a feeling that the Catamounts take one of these games to overtime. UND 4-1, 3-3 tie.

Strange things were afoot at Amsoil Arena (Duluth, Minnesota) last Friday night. With Bemidji State in town for the first half of a home-and-home series with the Bulldogs, a power outage caused poor ice conditions, and #2 Minnesota-Duluth’s home opener was postponed. That game was rescheduled for Tuesday, February 9th, 2016.

The following night, the Beavers kept the lights on and shocked UMD with a 3-2 victory. BSU junior forward Charlie O’Connor broke a 2-2 tie and netted the game winner with just 22 seconds remaining on the clock. The teams had earlier traded third-period goals 28 seconds apart. The visiting Bulldogs outshot the hosts 12-5 in the opening frame but headed to the locker room in a scoreless tie. Bemidji State turned the tables during the first intermission, outshooting their former WCHA foe 28-18 over the final 40 minutes of the game.

Turning our attention to this weekend’s action, North Dakota and Bemidji State will play a home and home series, with UND traveling to Bemidji for Friday’s opener before returning home to host BSU on Saturday night. The Beavers will open up conference play by hosting #14 Minnesota State next weekend, while Brad Berry’s club will travel to Burlington, Vermont to face the 20th ranked Vermont Catamounts.

These early season games are critical for North Dakota’s postseason aspirations. Last season, Dave Hakstol’s squad went 9-1-1 in regular season non-conference action and advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four, while the Beavers sported a pedestrian 4-4-0 record in non-league games and missed the national tournament. UND’s other non-conference opponents this season will be Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Alabama-Huntsville (all currently unranked).

Seven of North Dakota’s eight October games will be played on the road, with only Saturday’s home opener versus Bemidji State to satisfy the fans in Grand Forks. Beginning with a November visit from the Wisconsin Badgers, however, UND will have eight home series and only six weekends away from Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The Beavers return almost all of their scoring from a year ago, graduating only two forwards. While Phil Brewer (6-7-13) and Mitch Cain (2-3-5) were the only losses up front, BSU will miss the veteran leadership of Matt Prapavessis (9-15-24), Sam Rendle (2-8-10), and Sam Windle (1-6-7) on the blue line, but with 81 of 101 goals returning, Bemidji State should be able to keep games competitive all season long.

On the other hand, North Dakota lost eight seniors (six forwards and two defensemen) who combined for 65 of UND’s 138 goals last season. Furthermore, the Green and White lost two key underclassmen on the back end. Stalwart blueliner Jordan Schmaltz (4-24-28 in 42 games) and Mike Richter award winner Zane McIntyre (29-10-3, 2.05 GAA, .929 SV%) gave up their final year of college eligibility to sign professional contracts. Schmaltz is now with the St. Louis organization and McIntyre signed with the Boston Bruins.

UND’s underclassmen will be expected to contribute early and often. Many of North Dakota’s first-year forwards (Brock Boeser, Rhett Gardner, Shane Gersich, Joel Janatuinen, and Chris Wilkie) have already made an impact, while sophomore forwards Trevor Olson, Austin Poganski, Nick Schmaltz, and Johnny Simonson will need to take on larger roles. With so much returning skill and experience on the back end (sophomore Tucker Poolman and juniors Gage Ausmus, Paul LaDue, Troy Stecher, and Keaton Thompson), Brad Berry can ease his rookie blueliners into the system. Expect a rotation among freshman defensemen Danys Chartrand, Hayden Shaw, and Christian Wolanin to start the year (Shaw and Wolanin each played a game last weekend).

Bemidji State head coach Tom Serratore, now in his 15th year behind the Beaver bench, appears to have his club headed in the right direction. After finishing in a tie for 8th place in the first season of the new-look WCHA, BSU opened the 2014-15 campaign with a disastrous 3-10-0 record. Over the final four months of the season, however, Serratore posted a mark of 13-7-5, moved up to 5th place in the conference standings, and took Ferris State to triple overtime in the WCHA playoffs before falling 3-2. The Beavers were picked to finish fourth in the ten-team conference this year.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (15th season at BSU, 228-224-61 .504)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 1-0-0 overall, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 16-17-5 overall, 12-11-5 WCHA (5th)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Penalty Kill: 100.0% (4 of 4)

Key Players: Senior F Markus Gerbrandt (0-0-0), Senior F John Parker (1-0-1), Senior F Phillip Marinaccio (0-1-1), Senior F Cory Ward (0-0-0), Senior D Graeme McCormack (0-1-1), Junior D Ruslan Pedan (0-0-0), Sophomore G Michael Bitzer (1-0-0, 2.00 GAA, .933 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (1st season at UND, 1-0-1, .750)
National Ranking: #1/#1
This Season: 1-0-1 overall, 0-0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 29-10-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 16-6-2-0 NCHC (1st)

Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 28.6% (2 of 7)
Penalty Kill: 71.4% (5 of 7)

Key Players: Senior F Drake Caggiula (0-2-2), Sophomore F Nick Schmaltz (0-1-1), Junior F Luke Johnson (0-1-1), Junior D Paul LaDue (0-1-1), Junior D Troy Stecher (0-2-2), Sophomore G Cam Johnson (1-0-1, 1.44 GAA, .935 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 11, 2014 (Bemidji, MN). UND recovered from Friday’s blowout loss, putting together just enough to edge BSU 2-1. North Dakota went scoreless on the power play (0 for 6), but senior captain Stephane Pattyn scored the game winner late in period two while UND was shorthanded . Junior goaltender Zane McIntyre made 28 of 29 saves for the Green and White and earned the first win of his Mike Richter Award-winning season.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 10, 2014. Bemidji State scored four unanswered goals to chase goaltender Zane McIntyre from UND’s home opener. The Beavers added insult to injury by scoring on freshman netminder Cam Johnson just 15 seconds into his collegiate career. #2 North Dakota’s Nick Schmaltz scored the only goal for the Green and White, who fell to BSU 5-1. Freshman Michael Bitzer made 25 saves for Bemidji State.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 6-2-2 (.700) in the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring the Beavers 27-20 over that stretch of games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 27-3-3 (.864), including a 9-1-1 (.864) record in games played in Bemidji. Two of BSU’s three wins over North Dakota came in the past four seasons (November 2011 and October 2014). Bemidji’s other victory over UND came in 1970.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota senior forward Drake Caggiula comes into the weekend leading all men’s hockey players in career games played (125). Caggiula, who led UND with 18 goals and 36 points last season, collected an assist in each of UND’s two games at the Ice Breaker Tournament last weekend and was named to the all-tournament team along with forward Nick Schmaltz and defensemen Troy Stecher and Paul LaDue. After Bemidji State’s win over #2 Minnesota-Duluth, the Beavers almost cracked the USCHO top 20 this week. BSU currently sits in 22nd place in the voting. Nick Schmaltz is the only current North Dakota player with a goal against the Beavers (1-0-1 in two games played).

Media Coverage

Both games are televised this weekend. Friday’s opener is available on Lakeland Public Televison (which can be seen in Grand Forks), while the rematch will be telecast on Midco Sports Network. Friday’s game will be streamed live via WCHA.tv and Saturday’s game via NCHC.tv (subscription required). All UND men’s hockey games (home and away) can be heard on 96.1 FM and on stations across the UND Sports Network (as well as through the iHeart Radio app). Follow @UNDMHockey for real-time Twitter updates, or follow the action via live chat at UNDsports.com.

The Prediction

UND will come out flying against the Beavers, showcasing the skill and depth that has them at the top of the national rankings. Saturday’s rematch in Grand Forks will be closer, with North Dakota winning the special teams battle to complete the sweep. UND 5-2, 3-2.