NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Princeton

Expectations were not high for the Princeton Tigers this season. After finishing last year at 15-16-3 (10-10-2 ECAC), Guy Gadowsky’s club lost eight seniors, including three of its top five scorers, four defensemen, and goaltender B.J. Sklapsky (7-4-1, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV, 1 SO).

There were some signs of hope: freshman goalie Zane Kalemba (8-11-1, 2.89 GAA, .891 SV) was a solid replacement, and leading scorer Lee Jubinville (11-18-29 in 32 games) was back for his junior season.

The coaches and the media tabbed Princeton to finish eighth in the ECAC this season after a sixth-place finish last year.  And when the team went into the Christmas break at 5-7-0, that prediction looked about right, but things would get worse before they got better.

In the first game after the holiday break, the MSU-Mankato Mavericks routed Princeton 6-1, outshooting the Stripes 34-19. A sign of the times: a Princeton defenseman bounced his clearing attempt off of goalie Zane Kalemba and into his own net.

At 5-8-0, Princeton wasn’t playing as poorly as the 2002-03 Tiger team that went 3-26-2, but it had to feel like it…

And then the schedule turned to 2008. Like UND, which has gone 17-3-3 this calendar year after ending 2007 at 9-7-1, the Tigers have elevated their play over the past three months. Princeton has gone 15-5-0 in ‘08, losing all five of those games by a single goal. Four of those five losses were on the road, and the fifth was a 4-3 setback in Game 2 of the ECAC quarterfinals against Yale, a game Princeton led 2-0 in the first period. Princeton won the other two games of that best-of-three series against Yale, 3-0 and 4-0.

Over this twenty-game stretch, the Tigers are scoring 3.7 goals per game and allowing only 1.9. In the year 2008, Princeton has scored two or more goals in every game.

ECAC Player of the Year Lee Jubinville (12-26-38 in 33 games) has been a key component in the Tigers’ stretch run. The 5’10”, 165 pounder from Edmonton, Alberta has scored seven goals and added 16 assists in 2008. Jubinville is one of ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, the first Princeton Tiger ever selected to the top ten. Hobey Baker himself represented Princeton before World War I.

“He’s a very good player,” North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol said of Jubinville. “He was one of the best players in the Alberta Junior Hockey League a few years ago, too.”

In addition to Jubinville, two other Tigers are scoring at better than a point per game. Junior forward Brett Wilson (15-20-35) has been a solid contributor for three seasons, while sophomore forward Cam Macintyre’s thirty point season (12 goals, 18 assists) was unexpected after a rookie campaign of nine goals and four assists.

Sophomore goaltender Zane Kalemba (19-10-0) has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Kalmeba carries a 2.36 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage into the national tournament, and has posted five shutouts this season.

Another key for Princeton this year has been the play of its freshman class. Of the six first-year skaters, five have scored ten or more points (including two freshman defenseman), and all six have appeared in 24 or more games.

Remember that five years ago, this team won three games. TOTAL. Since then, the Tigers have seen improvement every year: five wins in 03-04, eight in 04-05, ten in 05-06, and fifteen last year. This season’s 21 victories (21-13-0) are the most in school history, a history that dates back to the year 1900.

By contrast, North Dakota has won 21 or more games 28 times in the past fifty years.

The Stripes (21-13-0, 14-8-0 ECAC) finished second to Clarkson (21-12-4, 15-4-3 ECAC) in the conference race. The Clarkson Golden Knights will face St. Cloud State in the East Regional (Albany, NY) on Friday afternoon.

Despite its second-half success, Princeton would not have made the national tournament as an at-large team. The Tigers played their way into the NCAAs by winning the ECAC Hockey Championship in Albany, New York, defeating Harvard 4-1. Zane Kalemba stopped 34 shots (and 61 of 62 for the weekend) to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award.

“I’ve never seen a performance like that before,” said fourth-year head coach Guy Gadowsky of his goalie’s jaw-dropping tournament acrobatics. Gadowsky was recently awarded the Tim Taylor award as ECAC coach of the year.

This is the 23rd NCAA appearance for North Dakota, and the 2nd for Princeton. The Fighting Sioux have seven national championships, while the Tigers are looking for their first NCAA tournament victory.

Princeton Team Profile
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: 16th
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 34th
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky (4th season at Princeton, 54-67-9, .488)
This Season: 21-13-0 Overall, 14-8-0 ECAC (2nd)
Special Teams: Power Play 17.2% (29 of 169), Penalty Kill 85.3% (122 of 143)
Last Season: 15-16-3, 10-10-2 ECAC (t-6th)
Key Players: Junior F Lee Jubinville (12-26-38, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Brett Wilson (15-20-35), Sophomore F Cam MacIntyre (12-18-30), Senior D Mike Moore (7-17-24), Sophomore G Zane Kalemba (19-10-0, 2.36 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: 3rd
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 1st
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 104-55-15, .641)
This Season: 26-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Specialty Teams: Power Play 18.8% (34 of 181), Penalty Kill 87.5% (154 of 176)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-23-41, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (7-19-26), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (25-10-4, 1.65 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: November 1, 2002 (Princeton, NJ). Sophomore forward Brandon Bochenski netted four goals (his second hat trick of the season) and freshman phenom Zach Parise had five assists as UND spoiled Princeton’s home opener, downing the Tigers 5-2 in front of 1,715 at Hobey Baker Rink. The teams were tied 2-2 late in the second period before Bochenski broke the game open with goals at 18:04 and 19:58. Bochenski added a rare three-on-four goal during a rash of penalties in the third period.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 2-0. The only other meeting between the two teams was in the consolation final of the Badger Showdown on December 30, 2000. North Dakota won 5-4 in a game that saw 101 shots on net (65 by the Sioux).

Game News and Notes
UND goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux enters the weekend leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6510) and is second in save percentage (.934). Lamoureux is also tied for first with six shutouts, and has given up exactly one goal 16 times this season.  Princeton netminder Zane Kalemba has five shutouts to his credit. North Dakota boasts the nation’s best defense, giving up only 1.77 goals per game, while Princeton is allowing 2.65. The Tigers have scored 3.26 goals/game; UND, an even 3.00. North Dakota has outscored opponents 43-12 in the first period this year. Princeton is 18-3-0 this season when leading or tied after two periods, partly because the Tigers have outscored opponents 43-31 in the third period. As a testament to UND’s difficult schedule, consider this: North Dakota has played 35 of its 40 games against the top 25 teams in the country, going 21-10-4 (.657) in those games. Princeton, on the other hand, has played only 13 games against those same teams, with just five victories and eight losses. Fourth-seeded teams won two of the four #1 vs. #4 matchups in last season’s NCAA tournament, and all four games were decided by one goal. The Tigers have scored six short-handed goals this season. With Jubinville, Oshie, and Lamoureux on the ice in Madison, this is the only NCAA first-round matchup to boast more than one Hobey Baker finalist.

The Prediction
Both the Sioux and Tigers play their home games on NHL-sized rinks (85×200), and will require some adjustment to play on the larger surface (97×200) in Madison. Princeton will have a fair number of Denver and Wisconsin fans in its corner, but it won’t much matter. North Dakota has an advantage in all areas and the veteran leadership to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. For analysis of the NCAA regional brackets, click here. For reaction to the Hobey Baker top ten, click here. Stop back later this week for previews and predictions from all four regional sites, and check back after Saturday’s game for more commentary and a complete recap of the Midwest Regional.

WCHA Final Five Weekend React

Well, here’s my attempt to summarize three days of hockey in one cohesive column. I’ll start with notes about each team and end with a few observations.

In order of their performance at the WCHA Final Five, here are the tournament participants from worst to first:

#5 Colorado College

The Tigers entered the weekend looking to claim their first ever Broadmoor trophy, and left with their collective tiger tails between their legs. Consecutive losses to Minnesota and North Dakota dropped CC to a #2 seed in its home regional.

Is it irony, coincidence, or bad luck that Colorado College has never hoisted the Broadmoor, named after their old building? It’s like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife….

Colorado College suffered from lapses in both games. The Tigers scored early in the second period against Minnesota, but gave up the tying goal less than a minute later. Against North Dakota, CC gave up three power play goals on seven UND opportunities. The Tigers came into Saturday’s semifinal with the nation’s best penalty kill (90.8%).

CC became just the second #1 seed in the 16-year history of the Final Five format to lose two tournament games. In 2006, #1 Minnesota lost 8-7 (OT) to #4 St. Cloud State and lost 4-0 to #2 Wisconsin in the third-place game.

The Tigers have the toughest of the four NCAA regional brackets, playing #3 Michigan State in the first round. #1 New Hampshire and #4 Notre Dame are also in the mix for a Frozen Four berth from the West Regional.

Head coach Scott Owens was frustrated by his team’s overall play and difficulty killing penalties, and will surely have his team’s attention this week in practice.

“I’m concerned about our inconsistent play going into next weekend,” Owens said.

#4 St. Cloud State

It’s difficult to judge SCSU, since we only saw them play in the Thursday play-in game against Minnesota, but they did not play particularly well. On a positive note, the Huskies and Gophers did play in front of a sold-out crowd of 19,232, smashing the play-in game record of 16,449.

“We’re not happy with the way we played tonight,” said St. Cloud head coach Bob Motzko. “(In the) first period we had a very poor period and it looked like we had stage-itis.”

The Huskies finished one for seven on the power play and never led in the hockey game. Next up for #2 seeded St. Cloud is a regional matchup against #3 Clarkson in Albany, NY. #1 Michigan and #4 Niagara are the other two teams in the East Regional.

#3 North Dakota

The Fighting Sioux followed up a lackluster performance against Denver with their best effort in a month, downing the Colorado College Tigers 4-2 to leapfrog CC and claim a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. For UND, it was important not only to win, but to play well and gain momentum for next weekend.

In the Friday semifinal, North Dakota was unable to score on either of two 5 on 3 situations, and that was the difference in the game. UND finished 0 for 4 on the power play, and T.J. Oshie and Ryan Duncan were held scoreless. The only bright spot for the Sioux was that there was another game to play on Saturday, a game with playoff implications (as Jim Dahl correctly pointed out here, it was important for North Dakota to play Colorado College head-to-head).

“Today was more about our performance than anything else,” said UND head coach Dave Hakstol about Saturday’s semifinal victory. “We didn’t feel very good last night about our performance. I thought we got back to the way we need to play.”

“Getting a win under us is going to build some confidence, and hopefully lead to a good week of practice,” agreed T.J. Oshie, who notched a goal and an assist.

North Dakota heads to Madison, Wisconsin as the #1 seed in a regional that includes two other WCHA teams. #2 Denver will play #3 Wisconsin, while UND entertains #4 Princeton in the Tiger’s second-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

#2 Denver

It’s hard not to put the Pioneers number one for the weekend, since they took home the Broadmoor trophy and moved their unbeaten streak in the Xcel Center to six games, but I gave the nod to Minnesota.

Denver played well in victories over North Dakota and Minnesota, allowing only a single goal to each team while scoring just enough to win. Both games went down to the wire and could have gone either way.

In Friday’s semifinal, Anthony Maiani broke a 1-1 tie with 80 seconds remaining and Matt Glasser added an empty-netter with 6 ticks left. The key for Denver was killing off all four UND power plays, including two extended 5 on 3’s.

In Saturday’s championship game, Denver responded with two second-period goals after Ryan Flynn staked Minnesota to a 1-0 lead, and held on in a furious third period. The Gophers outshot DU 14-4 in the final twenty minutes but could not solve Peter Mannino, who made 34 of 35 saves for the game.

As I mentioned above, Denver is headed to the Midwest Regional in Madison to take on the Badgers, who made the NCAA tournament despite a losing record (15-16-7).

#1 Minnesota

Yes, I know the Gophers lost in the championship game. But what this team accomplished after a marathon first-round series against MSU-Mankato was remarkable. Minnesota outplayed its opponents (St. Cloud State, Colorado College, Denver) for the better part of all three games and got great goaltending from freshman Alex Kangas (94 of 99 saves, 5 goals allowed). Kangas was named MVP of the tournament.

Minnesota played themselves up to #11 in the PairWise rankings and will travel to Worcester, Massachusetts this weekend. The #3 seeded Gophers will face #2 Boston College in the first round. If they advance, they will play the winner of #1 Miami (OH) and #4 Air Force in the Northeast Regional final.

And my final five observations of the weekend:

#5: I thought all three officials (Shepherd, Adam, and Anderson) did a good job throughout the tournament.

#4: I saw another #18 Hoogsteen jersey walking the concourses at the X. And I thought I was the only one…

#3: I didn’t think there would still be ducks at the Embassy Suites.

#2: Sioux fans, the Holy Cross references have to go. Yes, I understand that it was an upset, but get over it. Why not bring up the Sioux/Gopher regional final from last season? To celebrate another team’s victory over your rival instead of your team’s victory over your rival is weird to me.

#1: Sioux fans, celebrate this quote from Dave Hakstol: “It seemed like there were 7,000 to 8,000 UND fans (at the Xcel Center). Maybe some of that crew will make the journey (to Madison). It’d be great to have a strong contingent, and I’m sure we will.” North Dakota fans always travel well, and this weekend was no exception. It was great to see you all there.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your suggestions and comments, particularily if you attended the WCHA Final Five and have a story or observation to share.

NCAA Bracket Analysis: Who’s the Favorite?

As soon as the NCAA Men’s Hockey selection show ends, three questions inevitably come up:

Which is the toughest bracket?
Where are the likely upsets?
Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

And for most of us, we haven’t seen enough of the teams from the other conferences to make more than a guess about the game results. In that respect, it’s much like filling out a March Madness bracket for college hoops.

Fortunately, there’s a system that allows us to compare teams against each other and calculate each team’s expected winning percentage against any other.

The system is called KRACH, short for “Ken’s Ratings for American College Hockey”. KRACH rates teams based on their won-loss records against each other, and a key component is that a team’s strength of schedule is based on the ratings themselves, and as such cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.

The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A’s KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B’s, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if the two teams played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the “expected” winning percentage for a team in the games it’s already played is equal to its “actual” winning percentage.

A more complete explanation can be found here. The KRACH ratings for each team can be found here. Note that all 59 Division I tournament-eligible teams are included in the ratings, so all tournament teams can easily be compared.

Using these ratings, let’s revisit the questions we posed above.

Which is the toughest bracket?

By every measure, the West Regional in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the toughest bracket. New Hampshire (427.7 KRACH) has the most difficult road of any #1 seed, with #4 Notre Dame (192.5) in the first round and, should they advance, the winner of #2 Colorado College (585.3) and #3 Michigan State (294.5) in the regional final. So looking at these four teams, here are each team’s chances of advancing to the Frozen Four:

#1 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#2 Colorado College: 42.05%
#3 Michigan State: 15.70%
#4 Notre Dame: 9.22%

Note that #2 seed Colorado College is the favorite to come out of the West Regional, despite being a lower seed than New Hampshire. This has nothing to do with home-ice advantage, as that factor is not included in the ratings.

Remember, the KRACH ratings are on an odds scale, and comparing each team’s rating gives us an expected winning percentage. Anything can happen in a one game format, but these percentages give us an idea of what would happen if the games were played enough times.

The next toughest bracket is found in the Midwest Regional (Madison, WI), where #1 North Dakota (613.7) will face #4 Princeton (157.1) in the opener. Should they advance to the regional final, they would meet either #2 Denver University (471.9) or #3 Wisconsin (230.4). Each team’s chance of advancing to the Frozen Four is listed below:

#1 North Dakota: 49.23%
#2 Denver: 33.53%
#3 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#4 Princeton: 6.13%

We move next to the East Regional (Albany, NY), where #1 Michigan (769.5) takes on #4 Niagara (97.14) while #2 St. Cloud State (285.5) battles #3 Clarkson (180.7). This bracket is slightly stronger than the Northeast Regional (found below) because Niagara is a tougher first round opponent than Air Force would have been. Here are the percentages:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#3 Clarkson: 9.37%
#4 Niagara: 3.26%

And finally, the Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA): #1 Miami (558.7) draws #4 Air Force (55.05) in round one, while #2 Boston College (265.7) takes on #3 Minnesota (268.4). Minnesota has a slightly better chance of coming out of this bracket than Boston College, as you’ll see below:

#1 Miami: 61.59%
#2 Boston College: 18.29%
#3 Minnesota: 18.58%
#4 Air Force: 1.53%

So from the percentages above, we can see that the likely “upsets” are #3 Minnesota over #2 Boston College in the Northeast Regional semifinal and #2 Colorado College over #1 New Hampshire in the West Regional final. The #4 with the best shot of knocking off a #1 seed? Notre Dame.

And now to question 3:

Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

Here are each team’s chances to win a regional and advance to the Frozen Four, listed in the PairWise seed order that the committee used to fill in the bracket:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 Miami: 61.59%
#3 North Dakota: 49.23%
#4 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#5 Colorado College: 42.05%
#6 Boston College: 18.29%
#7 Denver: 33.53%
#8 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#9 Michigan State: 15.70%
#10 Clarkson: 9.37%
#11 Minnesota: 18.58%
#12 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#13 Notre Dame: 9.22%
#14 Princeton: 6.13%
#15 Niagara: 3.26%
#16 Air Force: 1.53%

So by the numbers, look for Michigan, Miami, North Dakota, and Colorado College in the Frozen Four, but don’t be surprised to see Denver, New Hampshire, St. Cloud, or Minnesota in the mix as well. As they say: anything can happen, and probably will.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back later this week for regional tournament previews and predictions.

Loss to Denver — Can UND still get a #1 NCAA seed?

The question came up in the Denver game thread whether UND could still get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament if Minnesota won tonight, giving UND a shot at CC.

Since the question is probably of general interest, I’ll repeat my answer here:

Looking at the CC vs. UND comparison only, 2 CC losses + 1 UND win (including 1 over CC) should flip TUC to UND and possibly RPI, plus give UND one more H2H point. If UND doesn’t take RPI, that would leave the comparison at 3-3 with CC owning RPI and UND H2H (I’m not sure which the committee would use as a tie-breaker); if UND takes RPI, UND wins the comparison 4-2 and stands a really good shot at a #1 seed.

RPI should be within .001 or so in that situation, so some of the other games could nudge it around enough to matter.

Of course, other things could move a little, with the comparison so tight, but a Minnesota win over CC and subsequent UND win over CC seems to be UND’s best chance to maximize its PWR now.

WCHA Final Five predictions

This is a quick overview of the Final Five tournament in St. Paul.  I’ll add more as the weekend progresses. And yes, I know the tournament is reseeded after the first round, but I think it’s more interesting to note where the teams finished in the conference, so I’m leaving them how they are.

Thursday night (7:07 p.m): #5 St. Cloud vs. #7 Minnesota
St. Cloud finished off the Badgers in two games; the Gophers played over 260 minutes of hockey (including five overtime periods) in their 3-game set with MSU-Mankato. The Huskies have had Minnesota’s number lately, and it continues at the XCel Center. SCSU 4-2.

Friday afternoon (2:07 p.m.): #2 North Dakota vs. #3 Denver
Both schools bring a great deal of talent to the ice. UND has an edge on the power play and between the pipes, and brings more experience to the Final Five. Lamoureux will hear his name called as a Hobey finalist on Thursday night and back it up with a strong performance on Friday afternoon. UND 3-1. For a complete preview of this matchup, click here.

Friday night (7:07 p.m.): #1 Colorado College vs. #5 St. Cloud State
The Tigers will be rested and ready, but it won’t be easy. This matchup could boast three or four Hobey Baker finalists, and it will be one to remember. I’m going with Colorado College, but if they get into penalty trouble, look out. CC 4-3.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after Friday’s games for reaction, commentary, analysis, and more predictions.

Reaction to the 2007-08 Hobey Baker Top Ten

Well, I’m not too impressed with myself. I correctly predicted only 5 of the 10 Hobey finalists, after picking 6 out of 10 last year.

First of all, the five I got right (I’ve left the season statistics as they were when the committee narrowed the field down to ten):

Skaters:

Jr. F Nathan Gerbe, Boston College 27-25-52

Sr. F Ryan Jones, Miami (OH) 30-16-46

So. F Ryan Lasch, St. Cloud State 25-26-51

Sr. F Kevin Porter, Michigan 28-28-56

Goaltender:

Sr. Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, North Dakota
24-9-4, 1.6312 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO

The committee also picked the following three skaters…

Jr. F Lee Jubinville, Princeton 12-26-38

Sr. F Simon Lambert, RIT 21-30-51

Jr. F T.J. Oshie, North Dakota 17-22-39

…while I had these three on my list:

Sr. F Matt Fornataro, New Hampshire 18-27-45Sr. D Jack Hillen, Colorado College 6-30-36Jr. F Chad Rau, Colorado College 27-14-41

I just don’t see Jubinville ahead of Fornataro and Rau. The Princeton Tigers played the 34th most difficult schedule in Division I, while Colorado College and New Hampshire came in 7th and 11th, respectively, in that category. Jack Hillen led all defenseman in scoring, but no blueliners were selected this year. And I’m a big Oshie fan, but I was surprised to see him on the list.

The committee tabbed these two goaltenders to join Lamoureux in the final ten…

Jr. Jeff Lerg, Michigan State
23-11-5, 2.2260 GAA, .925 SV, 4 SO

Sr. Kevin Regan, New Hampshire
23-6-1, 2.0689 GAA, .934 SV, 3 SO

…but I had selected these two:

Fr. Richard Bachman, Colorado College
25-6-1, 1.7485 GAA, .935 SV, 4 SO

Jr. Jeff Zatkoff, Miami (OH)
25-6-1, 1.6831 GAA, .934 SV, 3 SO

I can see Kevin Regan in the top ten over Jeff Zatkoff, because the Wildcats faced much tougher competition this year (strength of schedule #11 vs. Miami #24). But there is absolutely NO reason why Jeff Lerg should be on this list ahead of Richard Bachman. The Colorado College freshman has a better record, a lower goals-against average, a better save percentage, one more shutout, and played a tougher schedule this season. I don’t care that Bachman is a freshman; the top ten selections should go to the best players in the nation, and Richard Bachman has had a better season than Jeff Lerg.

Agree, disagree, let me know what you think. Who should have been in the Hobey top ten? And who would you leave out? We’ve got some time before the Hobey Hat Trick will be announced, so who would you select as your top three?

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back next week for my Hobey Hat Trick prediction.

Final Five Semifinal Preview: UND vs. Denver

There’s no question that these two teams have history: bad blood, controversy, and postseason clashes. But rather than looking at the past, both schools are treating this Friday’s game as an opportunity to gain momentum, gear up for the NCAA playoffs, and play for the WCHA playoff championship on Saturday night.

After narrowly missing out on last year’s NCAA tournament (and the West Regional held at Pepsi Center in Denver), the Pioneers seem poised for a run toward this year’s Frozen Four, also held at Pepsi Center. Denver is currently tied for 6th in the PairWise rankings, which mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I men’s hockey tournament.

They will have to make that playoff run without one of their leading scorers. Sophomore Brock Trotter, who had amassed season totals of 13 goals and 18 assists in 24 games, signed a pro contract with the Montreal Canadiens. Trotter played his last game as a Pioneer on January 19th against Bemidji State. Freshman Tyler Bozak (17-15-32 in 38 games) is the only DU player with more points than Trotter’s 31.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Denver. The Pioneers opened the season with a sparkling record of 17-4-0, but sputtered to the end of the regular season, going 5-9-1 over their last 15 games before sweeping Minnesota-Duluth at home last weekend.

UND, on the other hand, spent the first half of the season in “Splitsville”, splitting eight consecutive series. The Sioux have been red-hot in 2008, going 16-2-3 to climb to 5th in the PairWise. North Dakota saw its 18-game unbeaten streak (15-0-3) come to an end in Game 2 of its WCHA first-round playoff series against Michigan Tech, but rebounded to defeat the Huskies 2-1 on Sunday night to advance to the Final Five.

Denver Team Profile
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: 6th (tied)
Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (14th season at DU, 321-204-41, .603)
This Season: 24-13-1 Overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Special Teams: Power Play 14.2% (27 of 190), Penalty Kill 88.6% (156 of 176)
Last Season: 21-15-4, 13-11-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Freshman F Tyler Bozak (17-15-32), Sophomore F Rhett Rakhshani (13-13-26), Freshman F Kyle Ostrow (10-13-23), Junior D Chris Butler (3-14-17), Senior G Peter Mannino (23-13-1, 2.26 GAA, .916 SV, 6 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #4/#5
PairWise Ranking: 5th
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 103-54-15, .642)
This Season: 25-9-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Specialty Teams: Power Play 18.2% (31 of 170), Penalty Kill 88.1% (148 of 168)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (17-22-39), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (14-16-30), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (6-19-25), Senior D Robbie Bina (2-22-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (24-9-4, 1.63 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: February 16, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UND wins 4-1 to complete the weekend sweep of the Pioneers. Sioux junior winger Andrew Kozek scored a hat trick in Friday’s opener, bringing North Dakota back from a 4-1 deficit to win 5-4. The Sioux scored eight of the last nine goals in the series.
Last Meeting at the Final Five: March 18, 2005 (St. Paul, MN). In what will forever be known as the Robbie Bina game, Denver scored 42 seconds into overtime to defeat North Dakota 2-1 and advance to the WCHA championship game. Gabe Gauthier scored the game-winner, his second of the night, and Glenn Fischer made 29 saves for the Pioneers. Freshman goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux stopped 30 shots in a losing effort.
Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-109-7 (.539).

Game News and Notes
UND goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux enters the weekend leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6312) and is second in save percentage (.934). Both Lamoureux and Pioneer senior goaltender Peter Mannino have six shutouts on the season (tied for first among NCAA goalies), and Lamoureux has given up exactly one goal 16 times this season. With the departure of Brock Trotter, Denver freshman forward Tyler Bozak is the team’s active scoring leader with 17 goals and 15 assists. Bozak could become the second consecutive Pioneer freshman to lead the team in scoring, a feat Brock Trotter pulled off last season. North Dakota boasts the nation’s best defense, giving up only 1.74 goals per game. Denver is eighth at 2.26. UND has scored 3.03 goals per contest; DU, 2.87. The Sioux have played well on the road this season, posting a 10-4-2 record away from Ralph Engelstad Arena. The Pioneers have struggled, going 8-9-0 on the road. North Dakota has outscored opponents 42-11 in the first period this year. In the last six meetings between the two teams, UND has killed 27 of 29 Denver power play opportunities (93.1%).

The Prediction
Both schools bring a great deal of talent to the ice. UND has an edge on the power play and between the pipes, and brings more experience to the Final Five. Lamoureux will hear his name called as a Hobey finalist on Thursday night and back it up with a strong performance on Friday afternoon. UND 3-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back all weekend long for reaction, analysis, and commentary from St. Paul.

Press conference comments from Coach Hakstol

The WCHA had its annual pre-Final Five press conference this morning. Here’s a summary (not to be confused with a transcript, which it’s not) of what Dave Hakstol had to say.

Congratulations to Scott and Colorado College for their championship.

I also wanted to mention Jamie Russell and his team at Michigan Tech. It was a tough series for us to come out of, so we take our hats off to the Michigan Tech Huskies.

Our senior class is happy to be able to return to the Final Five one more time and take a shot at the Broadmoor Cup.

Q: Can you talk about the Oshie-Duncan line and how they’re playing?
A: They’re both playing good, solid two-way hockey. Our depth is the most important part of our team, but those two guys are impact players and are playing well.

Q: How has your veteran defense been going for you?
A: We knew coming into the year that to be successful our D corps had to be a source of stability for us. Even though its a veteran crew, we have some new partners this year, so its taken some time to develop chemistry and grow together. They’re moving the puck out of the zone and adding some offense.

Q: You’ve lost once in the last few months, is there a difference in the way you’ve played?
A: Within the WCHA you have to play well and have some breaks go your way to win games. But you do have to work for those breaks. In the early year we were working hard in some areas, but weren’t mature enough to close out some of the tight games. It’s a subtle difference. Our work ethic is no different and our mentality is no different. We’re doing some little things better and have had some bounces go our way in the second half.

Q: Is the final line change (the home ice advantage) much of an advantage?
A: We work hard to gain the home ice advantage and that last line change. It depends on your opponent how much of an advantage it is. It’s always nice to have the ability to match things up if you want to do that, but it’s not the case in 100% of games.

Q: A couple years ago we talked about Bina being an emotional force, not being able to play. Now he’s back and playing as a senior.
A: He’s still an emotional force for us. He doesn’t say much, but he’s one of the most popular guys in the locker room and one of the most competitive guys. It’s a great story for the young man to see him back and for his family. He’s one of the driving forces on our hockey team, and the injury is only part of it. He’s certainly a leader for us.

Q: Goals have been hard to come by in the conference. Are we going to see a goaltending duel throughout the tournament?
A: Playoff hockey is hard to predict. If you predict a defensive struggle, you’ll see a 6-5 shootout. All the teams in the Final Five have outstanding goaltending and take a lot of pride in their defensive play. To get through the first round of the playoffs, you have to be playing good defense. Goals have been tough to come by, we’ve been scoring 3 goals per game and that’s near the upper end of the league.

Q: Duncan, Hobey last year, maybe this year wasn’t quite at that level.
A: Ryan has really lived up to everything the Hobey Baker Memorial Award is all about. His numbers have lived up, his consistency is as good as last year.

Sunday Game React: UND vs. Michigan Tech

T.J. Oshie tallied both Fighting Sioux goals and Jean-Philippe Lamoureux turned aside 10 of 11 shots as North Dakota earned a hard-fought 2-1 win over the visiting Huskies of Michigan Tech. The victory propels UND to its sixth consecutive WCHA Final Five tournament, where the Sioux will face Denver in the Friday afternoon semifinal match-up (2:07 p.m.). North Dakota is currently 5th in the PairWise rankings; Denver is tied for 6th.

Oshie, a junior who quite likely played his last game at Ralph Engelstad Arena, went out in grand style, scoring his team-leading 16th and 17th goals of the season. He took a saucer pass from linemate Ryan Duncan and walked around MTU netminder Michael-Lee Teslak to knot the game at 1 late in the first period, and one-timed a feed from senior defenseman Robbie Bina for the game-winner just 19 seconds into the second period. Oshie’s game-winning goal came with the teams skating 4 on 4.

North Dakota has excelled in four on four situations all year long, outscoring opponents 8-2. It is critical for defensemen to move the puck and join the rush to create scoring chances while skating four on four, and North Dakota has plenty of blueliners who fit the bill. Robbie Bina (three assists), Chay Genoway (three assists), and Joe Finley (two goals), in particular, have been outstanding in 4 on 4 play.

Michigan Tech head coach Jamie Russell had high praise for UND’s Oshie:

“The kid’s a helluva hockey player,” Russell noted. “He’s a difference-maker. He’s not long in this league. He’s going to be a difference-maker at the next level as well. He’s a terrific hockey player. He plays hard, too. He’s strong defensively, he’s good on faceoffs, he’s solid on his skates, he’s a strong kid. He’s impressive.”

T.J. Oshie leads North Dakota with 39 points (17 goals, 22 assists).

Jean-Philippe Lamoureux rebounded from Saturday’s Game 2 defeat (3 goals allowed, 23 saves), allowing only Tyler Shelast’s tip-in goal at 11:27 of the first period. The goal came off a feed from Alex Gagne, who stole the puck from Oshie in the neutral zone and skated in two-on-two. Shelast, Saturday night’s hero, finished his career at Michigan Tech with 51 goals and 36 assists in 151 games played.

Two key moments stand out in this hockey game:

The first key was T.J. Oshie’s first goal, just 2 minutes and 42 seconds after Tyler Shelast had staked the Huskies to a 1-0 lead. Oshie swung the momentum back to North Dakota after UND had struggled for much of the opening frame.

The second key was MTU senior captain Jimmy Kerr’s 10-minute misconduct penalty at 10:35 of the third period. The Sioux were clinging to a one-goal lead at the time, and Kerr’s untimely verbal sparring with the official earned him a seat in the penalty box for the remainder of the game. The winger from Leduc, Alberta is Michigan Tech’s third-leading scorer (9 goals, 10 assists), and the Huskies desperately needed him on the ice at the end of the hockey game.

North Dakota helped Lamoureux out at every turn, blocking 23 of MTU’s 52 shot attempts. 18 of the remaining 29 attempts were wide of the net. The 11 shots on goal allowed by the Fighting Sioux is their lowest total this year. For the season, UND has allowed 24.3 shots on goal and 1.74 goals per game, the best defense in the country.

UND finished 0 of 2 on the power play (5 shots) while Michigan Tech went 0 for 3. The Huskies only managed 1 shot on goal during their three man-advantage situations. North Dakota’s penalty kill (88.1%) is sixth-best in Division I.

North Dakota’s penalty minutes continue to fall. The Sioux are now averaging 19.18 penalty minutes per game, fifth in the country. UND’s opponents are averaging 19.6 penalty minutes per game, and North Dakota has had 170 power plays (31 goals) and been asked to kill 168 penalties (20 goals allowed) this season. The 19.18 PIM for the Sioux this year are not far ahead of the top two teams in the PairWise, #1 Michigan (17.89) and #2 Miami of Ohio (17.84).

Michigan Tech fared well in the face-off circle on Sunday night, winning 35 of 63 (55.6%). North Dakota dominated Friday and Saturday night, winning 61.6% (77 of 125) over the first two games.

Lamoureux (24-9-4) heads into Final Five weekend with the nation’s best goals-against average (1.6312) and tied for the lead with six shutouts. He ranks fourth in Division I save percentage (.934), and is a virtual lock to be named one of ten Hobey Baker finalists. In addition to his six shutouts, Lamoureux has allowed exactly one goal 16 times this year.

Although it is customary for UND players to give a stick salute to the fans only after a home sweep, the Sioux treated the 11,639 fans at Ralph Engelstad Arena to one final salute for the 2007-08 season. Somehow, one more fan fit into the arena Sunday night, as Saturday’s announced attendance was a sold-out 11,638.

Three of the four North Dakota seniors (Lamoureux, Bina, Rylan Kaip) dressed for the series finale, and the trio returned to the ice for one final skate before heading down the tunnel for the last time at the Ralph. The fourth Sioux senior, forward Kyle Radke, was not in Sunday’s lineup. Lamoureux left a memory for one fan, tossing his goalie stick over the glass and into the crowd. The senior goaltender from Grand Forks, North Dakota recalled a game at the old Ralph Engelstad Arena:

“I remember being at (Sioux) game when Jason Blake (1996-99) scored an overtime goal,” Lamoureux said. “I was standing by the tunnel, and he gave his stick to a kid a couple of feet away from me. I thought it was pretty cool.”

North Dakota won five of the seven meetings between the two schools this year, outscoring the Huskies 23-9. Michigan Tech ends its season at 14-20-5, and says goodbye to seniors Peter Rouleau, Tyler Shelast, Jimmy Kerr, Malcolm Gwilliam, Jordan Foote, Mark Malekoff, and Jake Wilkens. There is also speculation that junior goaltender Michael-Lee Teslak (8-11-4, 2.20 GAA, .918 SV, 1 SO) will not return for his senior season.

The Sioux are a lock for the national tournament regardless of the results next weekend in St. Paul, but hope to return to the WCHA Final Five championship game for the third straight year. UND won the Broadmoor Trophy in 2006 (defeating St. Cloud State 5-3) and lost a thrilling overtime contest to Minnesota last season.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. I will be covering the WCHA Final Five tournament for SiouxSports.com, so check back throughout the weekend for news, notes, quotes, and commentary from St. Paul.

Saturday Game React: UND vs. Michigan Tech

Michigan Tech’s senior class wasn’t ready to call it a career just yet.  Tyler Shelast scored a short-handed goal with six seconds remaining in regulation to tie the score at 2 and added the game-winner on the power play two minutes into overtime.  Fellow senior Jimmy Kerr scored the Huskies’ first goal, a power play tally at the 1:19 mark of the third period that cut UND’s lead in half at 2-1.  Kerr assisted on the game-tying goal, and classmate Peter Rouleau notched an assist on the game-winning goal, sending most of the 11,638 fans at Ralph Engelstad Arena unhappily to the exits.

Tyler Shelast notched his 49th and 50th career goals at Michigan Tech while playing in his 150th game.  He is the Huskies’ active leader in goals, points (86), and games played.

Michigan Tech snapped a number of streaks with the victory on Saturday night.  North Dakota’s unbeaten streak ended at 18 games (15-0-3), and an 11-game home unbeaten streak (9-0-2) also came to an end.

UND head coach Dave Hakstol did not seem concerned that the school-record unbeaten streak had come to an end. “Until you mentioned it, I hadn’t even thought about it,” Hakstol told a reporter. “We’re worried about a three-game series. We’ve got to win a game tomorrow night.”

It was the first time this season that UND has lost an overtime game, having gone 2-0-3 before tonight’s game with victories over Minnesota and Minnesota-Duluth in the extra session.

Kerr’s goal snapped a 108:58 shutout streak for North Dakota senior goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (23 saves), who saw his goals-against average rise to 1.6422 and his save percentage fall to .93393.  Lamoureux still leads the nation in GAA and shutouts (six), but fell to third in save percentage.

For the second consecutive night, special teams play was the difference.  North Dakota was held scoreless on six power play opportunities, despite generating 15 shots on net with the man advantage.  Michigan Tech went 2 for 5 on the power play (5 shots), and added a short-handed goal.

UND opened the scoring on its first shot on net, Brad Miller’s blast which trickled past Michael-Lee Teslak (24 saves) at 4:19 of the first period.  Matt Frattin and Ryan Martens assisted on the goal.  North Dakota has now outscored opponents 41-10 in the opening twenty minutes this year, and lost for just the third time when scoring the first goal (9-3-4).  When UND’s opponent scores first, the Sioux are 15-6-0.

A key stretch of the hockey game was the second half of the first period. North Dakota could not extend its lead, despite having three consecutive power plays in a seven minute span. The Sioux put ten shots on net in those six minutes with the man-advantage, but could not break the game open.

Brad Miller returned the favor to his linemate in the second period, dropping a pass for Matt Frattin that the freshman buried to give North Dakota a comfortable two-goal cushion.  But penalties would come back to haunt the Sioux.  After Frattin’s goal, UND was whistled for two minors (Ryan Duncan for holding at 0:36 of the third period and Chris VandeVelde for hooking at 1:27 of overtime), and Michigan Tech cashed in on both of those opportunities, tallying only one shot on goal on each power play.

One area of excellence for North Dakota was in the face-off circle, where the Sioux dominated all night long. UND won 45 of 72 draws (62.5%), a staggering statistic. Chris VandeVelde (won 17, lost 3) and Andrew Kozek (won 7, lost 1) led the way for the Sioux. North Dakota also gave Michigan Tech a face-off lesson on Friday night, winning 32 of 53 (60.4%). VandeVelde was the face-off star in the opener as well, winning 10 draws and losing only 4.

Taylor Chorney led UND with 7 shots on goal, while T.J. Oshie and Brad Miller had 3 shots a piece. Michigan Tech seniors Peter Rouleau (5 shots) and Tyler Shelast (4 shots) paced the Huskies.

Six of North Dakota’s last nine WCHA first-round home series have gone to a third game.  Take heart, Sioux fans: UND has won the previous five Game 3’s, outscoring opponents 28-6, with only one close contest (3-2 [OT] vs. Denver in 2003) in the bunch.  The other games were lopsided affairs: 10-0 vs. MSU-Mankato (1999), 9-4 vs. Denver (2000), 4-0 vs. Minnesota-Duluth (2001), and 3-0 vs. MSU-Mankato (2006).

Five of UND’s last 11 home playoff games have gone to overtime.  North Dakota holds a record of 3-2 in those games.

My rant about low attendance for Game 1’s around the WCHA did not fall on deaf ears. Each conference playoff series saw a jump in spectators for Game 2. Mankato saw the biggest increase with an attendance of 4744 (an increase of 546), followed by St. Cloud State (4270, +265), Colorado College (6149, +253), and Denver University (4820, +127). Even UND crammed 66 more fans into Saturday’s game, with attendance announced at 11,638. And no, I don’t think I had anything to do with the increase. But maybe I did…..

Aside from Sunday night’s Game 3 at Ralph Engelstad Arena, the only other first-round series yet to be decided is the matchup between the Gophers and Mavericks at Mankato. Colorado College, Denver, and St. Cloud have all punched their ticket to the WCHA Final Five.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. For reaction to Friday’s Game 1, click here. For more on the matchup between the teams, click here. Check back after Sunday’s series finale for more information, commentary, and reaction.