Men’s Hockey – Page 40 – Sioux Sports Talk

Weekend PairWise Ranking outlook

Look back at the last week

UND is currently sitting at #3 in the PWR, behind BC and Yale. The Sioux win 25 of 28 comparisons, losing the comparisons to BC, Merrimack, and Yale.

UND PWR Details

Merrimack took the comparison with UND by sweeping UNH. That gave Merrimack over 10 games vs. TUCs and improved Merrimack’s record vs. TUCs to slightly better than UND’s.

This weekend

Getting swept or splitting will most likely result in UND staying put at #3 (though getting swept would open up the realistic possibility of a decline). A sweep for the Sioux would make a climb to #2 reasonably likely.

Games to watch

One biggie, no surprise:

Northeastern over Boston College — a single win by Northeastern would help UND overtake B.C. (BC’s lead is a mere .0001 in RPI)

Others with a more minor impact:

Massachusetts over Merrimack — a pure defensive play. I don’t see an obvious way for UND to take back the comparison with Merrimack this weekend. However, if UND faltered, Merrimack could overtake UND in comparisons won and PWR.
New Hampshire over Vermont — I honestly can’t figure out in which scenarios this matters, but it does.
MTech over Denver — prevent Denver from overtaking UND if the Sioux falter.
Princeton over Yale — for Yale to lose the top spot this weekend, they have to lose to Princeton.

Yale Watch

If Yale loses to both Quinnipiac and Princton, they stand less than a 25% chance of holding onto the #1 spot.

If Yale sweeps, they’re guaranteed to hold onto the #1 spot.

All scenarios in which Yale loses the #1 spot this weekend include a loss to Princeton, though it’s technically possible for Yale to beat Quinnipiac and still fall.

For UND to take the comparison with Yale would require taking both RPI and TUC. Princeton is a TUC.

BC needs to take 2 of RPI, TUC, and COP. The only remaining opportunity to take COP would be if Yale lost to Colgate next weekend.

TUC Cliff Watch

The five teams near the TUC cliff, against whom UND has winning records, are all currently at or over .500 in RPI.

Team	RPI	UND record
Alaska	.5090	1-0
St Cloud St	.5084	2-0 (2 remain)
Robert Morris	.5046	2-0
Alaska-Anchorage	.5032	2-0-1
Bemidji St	.5000	2-0 (2 remain)

While it’s true that UND has nowhere to go but down in TUC, a significant negative impact on UND remains unlikely.

Season Outlook

If UND keeps winning (e.g. 4 or more of the remaining 6 games), the Sioux stand a great chance of finishing the regular season in the top 4. The Sioux can do a lot to push themselves toward #2 overall, but to reach #1 overall is going to require some outside help.

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

It’s the middle of February, and St. Cloud State sits behind Alaska-Anchorage in the league standings.

I’m not sure I’m as good at predictions as some of you think I am, for reasons I’m about to illustrate:

Before the season started, I picked St. Cloud to finish 2nd and Anchorage to finish 11th. According to Jim Dahl’s “possible outcomes” thread, SCSU can finish no higher than 3rd, and those possibilities look even more remote with North Dakota coming to town.

In October, the Huskies appeared to be locked and loaded to challenge UND for the league title, with the only question mark on the blue line. At this point in the season, SCSU is loaded with question marks. Bob Motzko’s squad went on a seven-game unbeaten streak, but that was bookended with seven losses by a combined score of 30-10.

The road doesn’t get any easier as SCSU struggles to gain home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. After a home series against the Fighting Sioux, the Huskies host Wisconsin and travel to Denver to close out the regular season.

North Dakota clinched home ice and moved into first place in the league with a home sweep last weekend. UND has the easiest remaining schedule of the MacNaughton contenders, with a home series against Bemidji State and a road trip to Michigan Tech on the schedule.

Since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite), the Fighting Sioux have played some of their best hockey of the season. The return of forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire from injury has helped in that regard. Gregoire, in particular, has been an offensive catalyst, notching twelve points in eight games since his return to the lineup.

UND goaltender Aaron Dell notched his 20th victory of the season last weekend against Alaska-Anchorage, and has looked steady all season long. In addition to four shutouts, Dell has allowed a single goal in seven other starts. Junior netminder Brad Eidsness might not see the crease again this year.

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. North Dakota swept the series in Grand Forks and will claim the trophy outright with at least one point in the series. The Cup will be awarded in St. Cloud on Saturday. February 19th. Including this year, North Dakota has won at least a share of the Challenge Cup each of the past five seasons.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 117-88-28, .562)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-11-3 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)
Pairwise Ranking: t-26th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.90 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 16.8% (29 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (110 of 132)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (6-22-28), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (12-23-35), Junior F Jared Festler (11-7-18), Freshman D Nick Jensen (5-11-16), Senior D Brett Barta (1-10-11), Sophomore G Mike Lee (10-10-3, 2.83 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 176-92-26, .643)
This Season: 21-8-2, 16-6-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.71 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (32 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (126 of 148)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (22-13-35), Senior F Brad Malone (9-17-26), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-18-31), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Junior D Ben Blood (1-6-7), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (20-6-1, 1.99 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 4, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota put on the black jerseys and exploded for five first period goals in a rout over visiting St. Cloud State. UND’s 6-2 victory secured the first home sweep of the season for the Fighting Sioux.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: February 13, 2010. After a scoreless first period, UND erupted for six goals in the middle frame and destroyed the homestanding Huskies, 8-1. Sioux forward Matt Frattin added two goals in the third period.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 55-29-10 (.638), including a 21-16-5 (.560) record in St. Cloud.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 7-3-0 (.700) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series. North Dakota has already claimed at least a share of the Cup with a sweep in Grand Forks earlier this season.

Game News and Notes

In the last meeting between the teams, UND wore black jerseys at home for just the second time ever. St. Cloud State is only 4-7-3 at the National Hockey Center this season, with home victories over Quinnipiac and Bemidji State and a sweep against Michigan Tech. North Dakota is 9-4-1 on the road, with sweeps at Bemidji State, Wisconsin, and MSU-Mankato. The Fighting Sioux have won the last four games between the teams by a combined score of 22-7.

The Prediction

If these two teams met on neutral ice or in Grand Forks, I would predict another Sioux sweep. But UND has struggled on Friday nights in St. Cloud (0-7-3 in their last ten), and I have a feeling that they’ll need to mount a comeback to salvage a tie in the opener. The rematch is all North Dakota. 3-3 tie, UND 5-1.

On A Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon (February 19th) from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Grill and Bar in the Holiday Inn Hotel and Suites in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, share in some complimentary food and door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

This season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past seven seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. And last season, both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again. If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup three times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice.

Earlier this season, North Dakota swept a pair of games from SCSU in Grand Forks, so St. Cloud will have to return the favor and notch two victories this weekend to claim a share of the trophy.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, February 19th from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For a complete preview of this weekend’s series, click here. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Alaska-Anchorage

Alaska-Anchorage is looking at their best conference finish in program history. Before the season started, I predicted that the Seawolves would finish 11th out of 12 teams, and I wrote this:

11. Alaska-Anchorage: Ten freshmen and 40 minutes of returning experience in net means the Seawolves will be lucky to win five WCHA games.

So far this year, the six freshman forwards have appeared in a total of 101 games, scoring 18 goals and adding 30 assists. The two freshman blue liners have combined for 40 games, contributing 2 goals and 3 assists. That has taken some of the scoring load off of seniors Tommy Grant and Craig Parkinson and allowed freshmen goaltenders Rob Gunderson and Chris Kamal to grow accustomed to league play.

And I was dead wrong about the win total: UAA has already notched nine wins in the WCHA and is currently tied for 6th place in the league standings (with Colorado College).

Of the top five teams in the league, North Dakota has the easiest schedule remaining. After UAA, the Fighting Sioux will travel to St. Cloud and Michigan Tech and host Bemidji State over the final three weekends of the regular season. Denver has tough tests on the road (Minnesota and Nebraska-Omaha), and Duluth closes out the year with a road trip to Colorado College and a home series against UNO. As you can see, it will be almost impossible for Dean Blais’ squad to gain ground, as they also have Wisconsin at home and a road series at Anchorage. Wisconsin also faces Minnesota and Colorado College over the final month.

Alaska-Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: (Dave Shyiak, 6th season at UAA, 61-122-24, .353)

This Season: 10-13-3, 9-11-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 11-23-2 overall, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-25th
National Rankings: NR

Team Offense: 2.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.96 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (18 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (94 of 116)

Key Players: Senior F Tommy Grant (10-13-23), Freshman F Matt Bailey (8-9-17), Freshman F Jordan Kwas (4-13-17), Junior D Curtis Leinweber (4-6-10), Senior D Luka Vidmar (1-8-9), Freshman G Rob Gunderson (6-10-2, 2.72 GAA, .896 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)

This Season: 19-8-2, 14-6-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.66 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.48 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.3% (31 of 153)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (117 of 139)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (21-10-31), Senior F Brad Malone (9-16-25), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-16-28), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-14-25), Senior F/D Jake Marto (4-6-10), Junior D Ben Blood (1-5-6), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (18-6-1, 2.07 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 8, 2010 (Anchorage, AK). Midway through the 2nd period at the Kendall Hockey Classic, North Dakota led 5-1. Eight minutes later, the Seawolves were within one. Anchorage got the equalizer early in the 3rd and the game ended 5-5.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: November 15, 2008. UND used two power play goals and a shorthanded marker to defeat the visiting Seawolves, 3-1. UAA won Friday’s opener, 3-2, collecting just their third ever victory in Grand Forks,

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 40-17-4 (.689) including a 24-3-3 (.850) record in games played in Grand Forks. The Fighting Sioux have only lost twice in the last eleven meetings between the teams (7-2-2), with three of those games going to overtime.

Game News and Notes

The Seawolves are one victory away from matching their win total from all of last season. Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire has eight points (six goals, two assists) in six games since returning from injury on January 14th. UND’s Chay Genoway (lower-body injury) and Danny Kristo (frostbite) will miss this weekend’s action. Sioux forward Taylor Dickin will see his first action of the season.

The Prediction

This feels like a Friday breakout for North Dakota. In Saturday’s rematch, the Seawolves will limit penalties and scoring opportunities but will fall just short of a victory. UND 6-2, 2-1.

A look at this weekend’s PairWise Rankings possibilities

UND is currently ranked #5 in the PWR, though the Sioux are definitely looking up the ladder, not down.

Current PWR Rankings

Predicting UND’s PWR as of Feb. 15

Predicting for Tuesday, to include Monday night’s Beanpot games, UND is well-positioned to improve on its current ranking.

A sweep this weekend would almost guarantee a nice climb for UND (leaving only a about a 7% chance of ending the weekend #5 or lower). In that scenario, there would be about an 74% likelihood of UND being ranked #2-#3.

A split would really put UND’s fate in other team’s hands, with anything between #3 and #6 being moderately likely, but leaning toward #5-#6.

Games to watch this weekend

SCSU over UMD By far the most important series (other than its own) for UND this weekend. A Duluth loss could give UND the PWR comparison with Duluth (based on RPI and perhaps even TUC). However, SCSU could also become a TUC, giving UND 2 valuable TUC wins. That would be enough to possibly take the TUC comparisons from BC, UMD, and UNH (at least for one week, see “TUC Cliff Revisited” below).
UMN over Denver This is important from a defensive perspective, to keep Denver from overtaking UND. Denver wins could help the Pioneers surpass UND in both RPI and COP, depending on UND’s results this weekend.
Robert Morris over Mercyhurst This seems to be a pure TUC-cliff play, Robert Morris winning keeps their RPI over .500 and keeps them a TUC.
Bemidji State over MTech Another TUC-cliff play. The Beavers aren’t currently a TUC, but with a couple wins they could be, giving UND 2 more wins vs. TUCs.

TUC cliff revisited
The “TUC cliff” is a phenomenon in PWR where a team’s PWR ranking can be quite different depending which teams are “under consideration” (an RPI over .500).

Current RPI rankings

As I noted in this message board post, UND has a winning record vs. the following teams near the TUC cliff:

Alaska (1-0)
Robert Morris (2-0)

The more of those that become TUCs, the better for UND.

Far more significantly, UND could end with a winning record vs. the following teams near the TUC cliff:

Alaska-Anchorage (currently 0-0-1, 2 remaining)
St. Cloud (currently 2-0-0, 2 remaining)
Bemidji St. (currently 2-0-0, 2 remaining)

UND wants to beat those teams to get the maximum numbers of wins against them, but those losses will make it much harder for those teams to become TUCs. It’s like rain on your wedding day.

End of regular season outlook

With only 8 games left in the regular season, this is starting to shape up.

Edit… the above chart is the percentage share of possible outcomes. If you read those as probabilities, you’re essentially assuming that each team has a 50-50 chance of winning each game. More realistic, if you want to know what outcomes are actually likely, is guessing the winner of each game based on past results. The below chart does that (using KRACH).

The below notes refer to the probabilities of outcomes.

Win 4 — Minimum required to stay reasonably safe for an at-large bid.
Win 6 — Puts UND about where it is now, likely PWR ranking of #5-#6.
Win 8 — Very likely to be top 4 (82% chance).

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)

Idle UND hockey team could climb to #1 in PWR this weekend…

…but could also fall to #7.

I predicted back in December that I would next revisit the Pairwise Ratings (PWR) in February, and felt particularly compelled this week to follow through with that promise.

Predicting UND’s PWR as of Feb. 8

Bye week is always an interesting week to do a 1-week prediction, because it reveals how much our PWR can change without even playing. UND will have the same set of wins and losses a week from now as today, only PWR’s interpretation of the strength of those wins and losses will change.

UND is currently #3 in the PWR (actually, tied for #2 with Denver, who wins the RPI tie-breaker).

After next weekend (I projected out to next Tuesday to include the first round of the Beanpot), UND has over a 70% chance of being either #2 or #3.

#1 is actually possible (7%) as is #7 (.03%).

What to cheer for

You can follow along on the UND PWR Details table

The biggest games for UND are in the WCHA.

Minnesota beating Minn.-Duluth. Even a split would be enough to give UND the TUC point and the overall comparison, letting UND climb one spot.
CC beating Denver. This one is defensive — if Denver swept, they would get the TUC point from UND and the overall comparison, dropping UND a spot. A split should be enough to prevent that.
BU winning. It’s difficult to decipher when a team plays two different opponents, and it’s hard to figure out why Lowell matters, but it seems to a little. BU beating BC is important as defensive measure — a BC win over BU would be enough for BC to take the RPI point from UND and the overall comparison, dropping UND a spot.

FAQ

No one has actually asked yet, but someone is probably wondering…

How can UND get the #1 spot, I thought UND couldn’t take comparison with Yale?
I don’t think UND can take the comparison with Yale this week, overcoming Yale’s advantage in both RPI and TUC seems far-fetched. However, if UND took the comparison with Minn.-Duluth this week (see above), it would only be losing one comparison. If Yale lost a comparison to someone else this week, the two would be tied. UND would then need to surpass Yale in RPI to take the tie-breaker. Since UND is playing, the only way for that happen is for Yale to lose (probably both).

I just stumbled on this, how is PWR being predicted?
I simulate the outcomes of the remaining games in the season a million or so times, using KRACH to predict the likelihood of each team winning in each iteration. That’s enough simulations to ensure that even the most unlikely possibilities occur at least once. For each simulated season I calculate what PWR would result from that set of outcomes. I then use the aggregate results of those simulations to assign a likelihood to a particular outcome, that is, if UND finishes #3 in PWR in 370,000 of 1,000,000 simulations, I say that UND has about a 37% chance of finishing #3.

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)

Weekend Preview: UND at Colorado College

North Dakota fans might not remember that Colorado College is still a member of the WCHA.

When the league expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha), the unbalanced schedule was tweaked once again, meaning that, outside of St. Cloud State, the Fighting Sioux would host the other conference teams three out of every five seasons.

Despite playing only a two-game road series in 2009-10, North Dakota has only two games scheduled against the Tigers this season, and, you guessed it, the games are in Colorado Springs.

To put this in perspective: the last time Colorado College played at Ralph Engelstad Arena was March 1, 2009. Since that game, UND has hosted Minnesota at REA seven times.

So here’s a Colorado College primer for you: They haven’t made the national tournament since 2008 and haven’t won as much as a game at the WCHA Final Five or the NCAAs since 2005. Their best player (forward Jaden Schwartz; 11-15-26 in 17 games) is out with an injury, and the Tigers don’t have the goaltending that fans have become accustomed to (Joe Howe is no Bachmann, Zaba, or McElhinney). In short, CC’s advantage is more altitude than attitude.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Scott Owen’s club. After this weekend’s action against North Dakota, the Tigers have a home and home with Denver and road trips to Bemidji State and Wisconsin sandwiched around home series against MSU-Mankato and Minnesota-Duluth.

For North Dakota, it’s time to pick up points and secure home ice. After returning from Colorado Springs, the Green and White host Alaska-Anchorage and Bemidji State and travel to St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech to round out the regular season.

Sioux forward Jason Gregoire has been key since returning to the lineup, potting four goals against Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota after missing seven games due to injury.

On the special teams side of things, the Tigers don’t take many penalties and they are clipping along at nearly 24 percent on the power play. On the wide sheet, this could be problematic for UND.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (12th season at CC, 272-161-39, .618)
This Season: 14-11-1 Overall, 8-8-0 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 19-17-3 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Rankings: #20/NR

Team Offense: 3.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.6% (37 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (94 of 110)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rylan Schwartz (6-21-27), Senior F Tyler Johnson (16-12-28), Senior F Stephen Schultz (12-16-28), Junior D Gabe Guentzel (4-13-17), Senior D Ryan Lowery (1-12-13), Sophomore G Joe Howe (11-9-1, 2.70 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)
This Season: 18-7-2, 13-5-0 WCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #4/#5

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.52 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (30 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (108 of 129)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-10-30), Senior F Brad Malone (9-15-24), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-15-27), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-13-24), Senior D Chay Genoway (6-19-25), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (17-5-1, 2.07 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 27, 2010 (Colorado Springs, CO). North Dakota defeated the Tigers 3-2 to complete the road sweep and clinch home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. UND won Friday’s opener in overtime by the identical score.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-75-10 (.635), although the Tigers hold a 55-47-4 (.538) edge in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the teams.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota junior forward Jason Gregoire has five points (4 goals, 1 assist) in his last four games since returning from injury. Remarkably, Colorado College is scoring almost a half-point per game more without Jaden Schwartz in the lineup. Most of that is due to the fact that Alabama-Huntsville was on the schedule. With at least two points this weekend, UND can leapfrog idle Denver and recapture first place in the league standings. North Dakota is 8-3-1 on the road this season, including WCHA sweeps at Bemidji State, MSU-Mankato, and Wisconsin.

The Prediction

It’s difficult to predict games between teams who haven’t played each other much lately. If history is any indication, this weekend’s action will be quick and entertaining. I can’t see North Dakota sweeping at Colorado College two years in a row, so I’ll call it a split. UND 3-2, CC 4-3.

Trivia

Brad Malone is the seventh Sioux player to amass over 300 career penalty minutes. Who are the other six?

Please leave your comments and trivia guesses below. As always, I thank you for reading.

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. Nebraska-Omaha

It might very well be a tale of two halves for Nebraska-Omaha. In the first two months of the season, Dean Blais’ squad went 8-1-0, outscoring opponents 40-20 and looking very much like a contender for a #1 seed in the NCAA‘s. Since that time, the Mavs are 4-7-2 and on the bubble to make the national tournament.

As expected, UNO is playing very well at home and found some early success on the road as well, winning four of their first five games away from Omaha. Since November 13th, the Mavericks have only one road victory (1-5-1).

Currently fourth in the WCHA standings, the Mavs will have to improve in order to secure home ice for the first round of the playoffs. After North Dakota, UNO plays Wisconsin, Denver, and Duluth in the second half of the season and points will be hard to come by.

North Dakota is coming off of an intense series split gainst Minnesota and now will host Nebraska-Omaha’s first ever visit to Ralph Engelstad Arena. I don’t expect the Mavs to be wide-eyed or starstruck on Friday night, as Blais will have his team prepared to win a hockey game.

Special teams will be a factor once again this weekend. UND is currently a +11 in combined power play/penalty kill, while UNO sits dead even, having scored AND allowed 18 power play goals this season.

The Fighting Sioux got a big boost last weekend when junior forward Jason Gregoire returned to the lineup. North Dakota looks to be reasonably healthy for the first time in six weeks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (2nd season at UNO, 32-24-8, .563)

This Season: 12-8-2, 9-5-2 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 20-16-6, 13-12-3 CCHA (6th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-14th
National Rankings: #16/#15

Team Offense: 3.32 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (18 of 89)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (90 of 108)

Key Players: Senior F Rich Purslow (6-13-19), Senior F Matt Ambroz (13-11-24), Senior F Joey Martin (5-17-22), Freshman F Matt White (9-6-15), Senior D Eric Olimb (1-15-16), Sophomore D Bryce Aneloski (2-6-8), Junior G John Faulkner (12-7-2, 2.47 GAA, .912 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 172-90-26, .642)

This Season: 17-6-2, 12-4-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.60 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (27 of 127)
Penalty Kill: 86.4% (102 of 118)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-9-29), Senior F Brad Malone (9-14-23), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-13-25), Senior F Evan Trupp (9-13-22), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-19-23), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (16-5-1, 1.93 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: Saturday, November 20th (Omaha, Nebraska). UNO shocked North Dakota by scoring the game’s only goal in the final second of regulation. John Faulkner made 30 saves for the Mavs. UND won Friday’s opener, 6-5.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met twice (and the series is tied at one game a piece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha took only one point from four WCHA games against Bemidji State (0-3-1). UND forward Matt Frattin leads the nation with 20 goals while goaltender Aaron Dell is fifth in the country with a 1.93 goals-against average. Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais has 294 career collegiate coaching victories. After this two-game road trip at North Dakota, UNO will be at home for the next six games (Alabama-Huntsville, St. Cloud State, Wisconsin).

The Prediction

North Dakota is deeper and is gettng great goaltending, but it is very difficult to outwork a Dean Blais team for two consecutive nights. I have a feeling that UNO will pull out at least one point this weekend. UND 3-2, 3-3 tie.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota

During the Dave Hakstol era at North Dakota, the Fighting Sioux have done everything but win a national title. For Minnesota head coach Don Lucia, it’s a case of “what have you done for me lately?” The Golden Gophers’ titles in 2002 and 2003 seem like so long ago, with many fans calling for a change. (Dean Blais, anyone?)

Since Hakstol has been the head coach at UND (beginning in 2004-05), he boasts a 9-6-3 (.583) record against Minnesota in the regular season. More impressively, his playoff mark against the Gophers stands at 5-2-0 (.714). The two losses came on Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner at the 2007 Final Five and in the middle game of a three game WCHA playoff series last year in Grand Forks. Hakstol’s teams have ended Minnesota’s season three times in his six seasons as a head coach: 2004-05 Frozen Four semifinal, 2006-07 West Regional final, and the 2009-10 WCHA first round playoff series.

Over those six seasons, Hakstol has made the NCAA tournament six times (Minnesota: four, missing the last two), has won the MacNaughton Cup once and the Broadmoor Trophy twice, and has brought his team to the Frozen Four four times. Lucia, by contrast, has claimed one Frozen Four visit, two MacNaughton Cup titles, and one Broadmoor Trophy since 2004-05.

It’s true that the games this weekend are about the players, not the coaches. For Minnesota, senior goaltender Alex Kangas will have season-ending surgery, but in the interest of full disclosure, junior Kent Patterson has been the better netminder this season. The issue here is that there is no one behind Patterson with even a minute of college experience. Junior Jake Kremer will be the backup this weekend for the Gophers.

Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire has not been ruled out for this weekend’s action, and his return could give North Dakota a huge lift. Fellow junior Brett Hextall returned last weekend against Robert Morris after missing the previous five games.

UND senior forward Matt Frattin continues his torrid goal-scoring pace. His Hobey-worthy point totals now stand at 20 goals and 8 assists in 23 games. His assist numbers could be a bit higher, but it’s tough to collect helpers when the coaches ask you to shoot all the time and all of your shots go in, leaving no rebounds for your teammates.

Special teams will be critical this weekend, just as they were in last season’s WCHA first round playoff series. North Dakota won games one and three, holding the Gophers scoreless on eight power play opportunities. In Minnesota’s game two victory, they converted three of four chances with the man advantage. For the season, UND is a +9 in combined special teams play, while Lucia’s squad is a -5. The Fighting Sioux have also scored five shorthanded goals this season, while the Gophers have notched two.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (12th season at Minnesota, 283-153-50, .634)

This Season: 9-8-3 overall, 6-6-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 18-19-2 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 12-14-2 WCHA (7th)
PairWise Ranking: 24th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.05 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.8% (17 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 74.4% (64 of 86)

Key Players: Senior F Jay Barriball (11-10-21), Senior F Jacob Cepis (7-11-18), Senior F Mike Hoeffel (8-8-16), Senior D Cade Fairchild (3-8-11), Senior D Kevin Wehrs (1-7-8), Junior G Kent Patterson (7-3-3, 2.50 GAA, .918 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 171-89-26, .643)

This Season: 16-5-2, 11-3-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
PairWise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.65 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.0% (23 of 115)
Penalty Kill: 86.8 (92 of 106)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-8-28), Senior F Brad Malone (7-13-20), Sophomore F Corban Knight (11-13-24), Senior F Evan Trupp (8-11-19), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-17-21), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (15-4-1, 1.92 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 14, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). In game three of the first round WCHA playoff series, North Dakota prevailed 4-1 to end Minnesota’s season and advance to the WCHA Final Five. UND would claim the Broadmoor Trophy six days later after dispatching Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, and St. Cloud State. The Sioux and Gophers split the first two playoff games, with North Dakota winning 6-0 on Friday night and Minnesota rebounding with a 4-2 victory on Saturday.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series, 132-127-14 (.509), but North Dakota holds a 69-54-8 (.557) advantage in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 5-4-1 in the last ten meetings between the teams. Three of the last ten games have gone to overtime.

Game News and Notes

Minnesota has played to overtime in its last three games, losing to Union and tying Minnesota-Duluth and Ferris State. North Dakota’s Evan Trupp, Jason Gregoire, and Chay Genoway each have nine career points against the Maroon and Gold. The Gophers have not won a game this season when trailing after one period of play (0-6-0). This weekend is a White Out Weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena, with Fighting Sioux fans encouraged to wear white to both games. In an effort to minimize traffic and congestion at the arena, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m.

The Prediction

The teams are not evenly matched, but the intensity will be there on both sides. Officiating and special teams will be key, and I have a feeling Minnesota will take the opener before North Dakota’s talent shines in the rematch. UMN 3-2, UND 4-1.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Robert Morris

If Robert Morris steals a game at Ralph Engelstad Arena this weekend, it will be a monumental upset. To date, the Colonials have played the softest schedule in men’s hockey. A weaker schedule than Bentley, American International, Sacred Heart, and all the rest.

By contrast, North Dakota has played the nation’s toughest slate of games and are unbeaten in their last seven (6-0-1). The Fighting Sioux boast the nation’s winningest goaltender (Aaron Dell, 13 victories) and goal scoring leader (Matt Frattin, 18 goals). UND is perched atop the WCHA and poised for a second half run to the MacNaughton Cup.

Robert Morris is a new member of Atlantic Hockey this season and is currently in second place. A sparkling 5-0 record in non-conference play has the Colonials looking for their first winning season in program history. It is worth noting that the five wins came against Ohio State, Colgate (2), and Alabama-Huntsville (2).

UND needs two victories to improve on a 3-2-2 non-conference record. Two losses at Maine and ties against Alaska-Anchorage and Notre Dame are blemishes that may prove costly when seeds are announced for the NCAA tournament.

On the injury front, there has been no update on Sioux forward Jason Gregoire. Fellow forward Brett Hextall is expected to play this weekend after missing the past five games. Freshmen Derek Forbort and Brock Nelson are back in Grand Forks and should be ready to go after earning bronze medals at the World Junior Championships.

After this weekend’s series, UND plays host to Minnesota and Nebraska-Omaha on back-to-back weekends before heading to Colorado College at the end of January.

Robert Morris Team Profile

Head Coach: Derek Schooley (7th season at RMU, 81-118-28, .419)
This Season: 12-5-2, 7-5-2 Atlantic Hockey (2nd)
Last Season: 10-19-6, 6-9-3 CHA (2nd)
PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 3.32 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (18 of 93)
Penalty Kill: 85.2% (69 of 81)
Key Players: Senior F Nathan Longpre (9-18-27), Senior F Chris Kushner (6-12-18), Junior F Adam Brace (5-9-14), Senior D Denny Urban (7-18-25), Junior D James Lyle (2-4-6), Junior G Brooks Ostergard (10-4-1, 2.32 GAA, .921 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 169-89-26, .641)
This Season: 14-5-2, 11-3-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
PairWise Ranking: #2
National Rankings: #2/#2
Team Offense: 3.52 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.52 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (20 of 106)
Penalty Kill: 85.6% (83 of 97)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (18-8-26), Senior F Brad Malone (7-11-18), Sophomore F Corban Knight (9-11-20), Senior F Evan Trupp (7-10-17), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-14-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (13-4-1, 2.09 GAA, .912 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Robert Morris and North Dakota have never met, so this section is noticeably shorter than normal. 2010-2011 is the Colonials’ seventh at the Division I level.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not won an overtime game this season (0-1-2). The Fighting Sioux have allowed the first goal in 14 games this season, and have compiled a sparkling 10-3-1 record in those games. Robert Morris has never finished a hockey season with a winning record. UND has not lost when leading after two periods this season (10-0-0). Sioux forward Matt Frattin leads the NCAA with 18 goals.

The Prediction

I feel like RMU will make one game close, and my instinct tells me it will be a battle on Saturday night after a Friday rout. UND 6-1, 3-2.

Terry Casey Tribute

Prior to Friday night’s series opener, Terry Casey’s #12 jersey will be hung in the rafters at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Casey finished his North Dakota hockey career with 118 points in 88 games and was named a first-team All-American after his senior year. Casey was selected to the 1968 U.S. Olympic hockey team, but died in a car accident in July 1967. His jersey has been retired since 1968.