Category: Men’s Hockey

#7 UND (Current PWR rankings) remains in the driver’s seat for its tournament hopes.

Its ranking remains anchored around 6-7 with a split, could rise a little with a sweep, or could fall a few spots if swept. The conference tournaments are annoyingly difficult to predict through, but a solid performance this weekend should put UND in position for an at large bid even, if they were to suffer an early exit from the conference tournament. A sweep could even (if all else goes well) vault UND into the top 4.

Providence over Mass.-Lowell is UND’s most obvious chance to flip a comparison in its favor (UND’s current PWR comparisons). UND could easily take Mass.-Lowell on RPI if the River Hawks falter.

Boston College is a little harder to flip because UND already has RPI. Even a sweep of Mankato doesn’t quite give UND the TUC criterion, but gets them close enough (.5926 vs .6053) that a little movement around the TUC cliff could flip it.

While UND can overtake New Hampshire on RPI, that would just put the comparison in the same situation as that with BC. UND would fall just short on TUC (.5926 vs .5952), but a little movement on the TUC cliff could flip it.

Wisconsin over St. Cloud seems to matter defensively, if UND underperforms this weekend this would prevent St. Cloud from flipping the comparison.

St. Cloud St vs Wisconsin

This weekend’s matchup between #10 St. Cloud St and #20 Wisconsin has big PWR implications that could have big tournament implications.

St. Cloud can all but lock in a tournament berth with a sweep, or can put itself in danger of missing out if swept. Wisconsin has a lot to play for, with the possibility of rising to the bubble with a sweep.

Big movers

Overall movement looks to be relatively small this weekend. The most upside potential (that immediately seems to matter) is #22 Providence, which could find itself on the bubble with a sweep. The “look out below” award again goes to #19 Dartmouth, whose probable outcomes span a full 10 rankings if they get swept. An honorable mention for upside potential goes to #31 Colorado College, which has an outside chance of becoming relevant with a sweep over Michigan Tech (the Tigers’ probable outcomes again spanning an almost 10 ranking range if they sweep).

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

After three consecutive disappointing seasons in Mankato, head coach Troy Jutting was replaced by Mike Hastings. The first year head coach has turned the Mavericks around, with 21 wins to his credit already (21-10-3). By comparison, Jutting only hit 20 wins once in his 12 seasons behind the MSU-M bench (20-11-10 in 2002-03, Jutting’s only NCAA tournament appearance), and lost 16 or more games in 11 of his 12 head coaching campaigns.

Last year, the Mavericks relied heavily on their rookie class, and those players are now flourishing as sophomores. Forwards Matt Leitner (15-25-40) and Jean-Paul Lafontaine (8-20-28) have been offensive catalysts, while fellow sophomore Zach Palmquist (5-16-21) has chipped in from the blue line.

By contrast, UND’s top scoring second year player is forward Mark MacMillan (12-12-24), while sophomore defenseman Nick Mattson has notched three goals and added 12 assists.

The biggest storyline in Mankato, however, might be the emergence of netminder Stephon Williams. The freshman goaltender from Fairbanks, Alaska spent two seasons in the USHL (Sioux Falls and Waterloo) before beginning his NCAA career, and Williams has taken the job away from senior Phil Cook. Cook has struggled in nine appearances this season (3-2-1, 3.49 GAA, .879 SV%), while Williams has ben nothing short of outstanding (18-8-2, 1.82 GAA, .930 SV%, 4 SO).

UND still has a goaltending battle on its hands, with freshman Zane Gothberg and junior transfer Clarke Saunders both playing well. Look for each to get a start this weekend in Mankato, with the sharper of the two getting the nod for the playoff run beginning next weekend.

Since December 1st, both teams have been in fine form. North Dakota has gone 12-4-5 over the past three months, outscoring opponents 73-49, while the Mavericks have posted an impressive 15-5-1 mark over the same time frame, owning the scoreboard by a 74-43 margin.

Dave Hakstol’s team has secured home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs and currently sits in 7th place in the Pairwise rankings, which mimic the NCAA tournament selection process. Based on the results of this weekend’s conference action, North Dakota could host Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Colorado College, Denver, Michigan Tech, Minnesota-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, or Wisconsin in the first round of the league playoffs next weekend. UND will host the first round of the conference playoffs for the 11th consecutive season, the longest active streak in the WCHA.

Mike Hastings’ squad sits in a tie for fourth place in the WCHA, and could end up at home or on the road next weekend, depending on the results of this series and other games around the league. Regardless of how the lconference playoffs turn out, the Mavericks appear to be in line for an NCAA tournament bid for the first time since 2002-03.

This is the first meeting between the schools during the 2012-13 campaign. The teams also played just two games last season, with North Dakota sweeping a pair from the Mavericks in Grand Forks. Beginning next season, UND will move to the NCHC while Mankato will remain in the new-look WCHA. It is unclear when the two schools will schedule games again or whether there is interest on either side in continuing the rivalry.

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Hastings (1st season at MSU-M, 21-10-3, .662)
Pairwise Ranking: t-8th
National Ranking: #10
This Season: 21-10-3 overall, 15-10-1 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 12-24-2 overall, 8-18-2 WCHA (11th)

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.26 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.5% (38 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 82.5% (113 of 137)

Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Leitner (15-25-40), Senior F Eriah Hayes (18-13-31), Sophomore F Jean-Paul Lafontaine (8-20-28), Junior F Zach Lehrke (8-15-23), Sophomore D Zach Palmquist (5-16-21), Junior D Josh Nelson (5-8-13), Freshman G Stephon Williams (18-8-2, 1.82 GAA, .930 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 231-115-37, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 18-9-7 overall, 13-6-7 WCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (30 of 136)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (105 of 126)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Danny Kristo (20-24-44), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (12-12-24), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (12-17-29), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-9-13), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (3-17-20), Junior G Clarke Saunders (12-6-4, 2.30 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 3, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). Senior goaltender Brad Eidsness pitched a 29 save shutout on Senior Night and Brock Nelson added an empty-netter with 90 seconds to play as UND rolled the Mavericks 3-0. North Dakota won Friday’s opener 4-2 on the strength of a three goal first period.

Last Meeting in Mankato: December 12, 2010. In a rare Sunday afternoon contest, UND again rallied from an early deficit to secure the road victory, 4-2. Down one goal late in the game, the Mavericks couldn’t capitalize on nearly two minutes of 5 on 3 play, and North Dakota forward Evan Trupp iced the contest with an empty-netter in the final minute. On Friday night, the Green and White scored three 3rd period goals in under three minutes to come back and win 4-3.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 37-10-7 (.750), including a 14-4-4 (.727) record in games played in Mankato.

Last ten: North Dakota has a sparkling 9-1-0 record in the last ten contests, and has lost just once in the last 20 meetings (18-1-1) between the schools.

Game News and Notes

UND head coach Dave Hakstol is 22-3-2 (.852) against the Mavericks in his career. This weekend’s games will be played on an Olympic sheet of ice at the Verizon Wireless Center (capacity 4,832). North Dakota is just 3-4-1 on the wider ice surface this season (at Alaska Goal Rush tournament, St. Cloud State, Colorado College, and Minnesota). MSU-Mankato is 10-5-1 at home this year.

The Prediction

I really can’t see either team taking more than two points from this series. If the games were in Grand Forks, the edge would go to the Green and White, but Mankato is fast and skilled and will take UND by surprise in game one. North Dakota will silence the cowbells and take the series finale on Saturday night. MSUM 4-2, UND 4-2.

Last season, North Dakota finished out the WCHA regular season with two victories over Minnesota State-Mankato before dispatching Bemidji State at home in the first round of the league playoffs.

Fast forward one year, and it’s much the same. UND hasn’t played the Beavers in 2012-13, but will host Tom Serratore’s squad for a pair before traveling to Mankato to end the regular season. North Dakota looks to be in line to host the first round of the WCHA playoffs, and may likely host Bemidji at the Ralph in two weeks time.

There is a distinct difference between the top nine teams in the league and the bottom three, and wins this weekend and next would almost guarantee that UND would host Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, or Alaska-Anchorage with a trip to the WCHA Final Five on the line.

Bemidji State is in a freefall, winning only one game since December 15th (1-9-4) and being outscored 44-23 in that span. By contrast, North Dakota is 11-4-4 since December 1st, outscoring opponents 67-45.

For the most part, Dave Hakstol has his line combinations set heading into the playoffs. The question mark will be between the pipes, and these next two weekends will determine whether junior Clarke Saunders or freshman Zane Gothberg will take the reins for a run to the Frozen Four.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (12th season at BSU, 201-181-48 .523)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 6-17-7 overal, 5-13-6 WCHA (t-10th)
Last Season: 17-18-3 overall, 11-14-3 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 2.07 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.97 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (17 of 90)
Penalty Kill: 81.6% (93 of 114)

Key Players: Senior F Jordan George (8-9-17), Senior F Brance Orban (8-12-20), Senior F Aaron McLeod (11-5-16), Sophomore D Matt Prapavessis (0-9-9), Senior D Brady Wacker (3-5-8), Sophomore G Andrew Walsh (5-10-5, 2.60 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 230-115-36, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 17-9-6 overall, 12-6-6 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.31 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.0% (29 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (102 of 123)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (14-29-43), Senior F Danny Kristo (20-23-43), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (10-11-21), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (12-15-27), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-9-13), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (3-17-20), Junior G Clarke Saunders (11-6-4, 2.31 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 10, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). Proving the old adage that it’s never easy to end an opponent’s season, North Dakota had to withstand a late Bemidji State rally to prevail 4-3 and sweep the WCHA first round playoff series from the Beavers. BSU senior Jamie McQueen scored two late goals, but it wasn’t quite enough to match UND’s Mark MacMillan-Carter Rowney-Michael Parks line, who followed up a seven-point performance in Friday’s 4-1 victory with a six-point night in the rematch.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won nine of the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring BSU 41-20 during that stretch. One of those UND victories was a 4-3 overtime decision in Grand Forks, while Bemidji State’s lone bright spot was a 1-0 home win last season.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 24-2-1 (.907), including a 16-1-1 (.917) record in games played in Grand Forks. Bemidji State’s lone victory in Grand Forks came on February 7, 1970.

Game News and Notes:

UND senior forward Danny Kristo has not scored a single point in six career games against the Beavers. BSU has been outshot in 22 of 27 games this season. North Dakota junior netminder Clarke Saunders faced Bemidji State three times in his career at Alabama-Huntsville, winning one game and losing two others. In overtime games this season, UND has not lost (2-0-6) while BSU has not won (0-3-7).

The Prediction

Everything points to North Dakota domination, but it’s not that simple. Bemidji State has historically played UND tough, and I expect another gritty weekend from the Beavers this time around. Look for a close contest Friday, with North Dakota pulling away on Saturday. UND 3-2, 5-1.

In the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota will be at the top of the league rivalries.

The two schools clearly do not like each other, and the feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that game (a Denver victory), the two teams have met six times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has won the last four playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012) and the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four.

Along the way, we’ve had dasher dances, brawls, illegal checks, devastating hits, and a certain coach losing his way to the visiting locker room.

Both schools seem to get hit by the “early departure” bug each off-season. For North Dakota, forward Brock Nelson (36-32-68 in 84 games) left after his sophomore campaign while goaltender Aaron Dell (49-20-5, 2.15 GAA, .912 SV%, 9 SO) gave up his final season of eligibility. On the Denver side of the ledger, three Pioneers opted not to return: Drew Shore (50-68-118 in 123 games) gave up his senior season, while fellow forwards Jason Zucker (45-46-91 in 78 games) and Beau Bennett (13-25-38 in 47 games) left two years of eligibility on the table.

Only six WCHA teams are in conference action this weekend, but those three series will clear up the playoff picture for the home stretch. After this weekend, all of the schools will have played the same number of games (24), with the exception of Duluth, who travels to face Minnesota this weekend having already played 24 games.

St. Cloud State is in the driver’s seat with 31 points in 22 games played, but faces a tough test at Colorado College. Minnesota and North Dakota are tied for second in the league in winning percentage (28 points in 22 league games), and whichever team fares better this weekend will be the toughest test for SCSU over the final two weekends.

With Colorado College and Minnesota-Duluth stuck in 8th place with 20 points each, UND fans should be cheering for those two schools to topple St. Cloud State and Minnesota, respectively, to give North Dakota the best possible chance at the MacNaughton Cup.

When Denver came up to Grand Forks in December, Gwozdecky’s squad was on top of the WCHA with a record of 7-2-1 (.750). Since that time, however, they’ve been in freefall, going 3-5-3 (.409). DU has dropped all the way to 7th place in the league and is in danger of missing out on home ice for the first round of the conference playoffs.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (19th season at DU, 438-262-64 .615)
Pairwise Ranking: 11th
National Rankings: #10
This Season: 15-7-5 overall, 10-7-5 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 25-14-4 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinalist), 16-8-4 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.66 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.0% (27 of 123)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (105 of 124)

Key Players: Junior F Nick Shore (11-15-26), Senior F Chris Knowlton (12-12-24), Senior F Shawn Ostrow (10-10-20), Sophomore D Joey LaLeggia (10-14-24), Junior D David Makowski (6-16-22), Sophomore G Juho Olkinuora (9-3-5, 2.11 GAA, .935 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 229-114-36, .652)
Pairwise Ranking: 6th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 16-8-6 overall, 11-5-6 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (25 of 116)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (93 of 111)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Danny Kristo (18-21-39), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (9-9-18), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (10-14-24), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (2-15-17), Freshman G Zane Gothberg (6-3-2. 2.42 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 8, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). Carter Rowney capped a five point weekend with two goals on assists from Rocco Grimaldi as UND prevailed, 6-3. Denver scored twice on a five minute power play in the second period but could not get the equalizer. The two teams skated to a 2-2 tie in Friday’s opener, with North Dakota outshooting the Pios 33-20.

Last Meeting in Denver: February 25, 2012. North Dakota could not capitalize on an early five minute power play, and DU road the momentum all the way to a 5-3 victory over the visiting squad from Grand Forks. Chris Knowlton scored twice for DU, who needed the victory to salvage a series split with UND, who won Friday’s opener 4-3.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. And just last season, North Dakota defeated Denver in the WCHA Final Five championship game.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota has had the better of it lately, going 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the schools. Only two of the last ten games between the teams have taken place in Denver, with the teams splitting the weekend series. The two teams have also met three times in the WCHA Final Five (St. Paul) and once in the NCAA regionals during this most recent stretch, with UND winning all four games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 136-116-9 (.538), but the Pioneers hold a 67-50-3 (.571) record in game played at altitude.

Game News and Notes

UND senior forward Danny Kristo is the active career scoring leader in the NCAA (148 points), and needs six more points to move into the top twenty all time at North Dakota. Both schools are 5-2 in one goal games this season, but North Dakota has scored two overtime winners in eight extra sessions (2-0-6), while DU is winless in seven overtime tries this year (0-2-5). Denver head coach George Gwozdecky just might squat on the dasher in front of his team’s bench.

The Prediction

Everything on paper points to a split this weekend. I have a sneaking suspicion that UND will get off to a slow start in Friday’s opener. A valiant effort will fall just short, but the momentum will carry over into Saturday’s rematch, and North Dakota will head home with two points. DU 4-3, UND 4-2.

This weekend’s WCHA action features a pair of contests that will decide the race for the MacNaughton Cup. #1 ranked Minnesota (10-4-4 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #8 St. Cloud to face the Huskies (14-5-1 WCHA, 1st place) while #7 North Dakota (9-5-6 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #14 Nebraska-Omaha (12-6-2 WCHA, 2nd place) to play an indoor/outdoor series against Dean Blais and the Mavericks.

Dean Blais’ squad has a distinct North Dakota feel to it, with Steve Johnson beside him on the bench and two forwards named Archibald and Zombo on the ice. UND fans may remember their dads, Jim Archibald and Rick Zombo, who wore the green and white during Blais’ tenure in Grand Forks.

UND took three points last weekend in a home series against Wisconsin, due in large part to the goaltending of freshman Zane Gothberg (50 saves on 52 shots) and the combined efforts of the power play and penalty kill units. North Dakota killed all eight Wisconsin power plays on the weekend and scored three goals in twelve man-advantage situations.

Both schools are getting scoring contributions from the blueline, as UND and UNO are tied for third nationally with 68 points from defensemen. Junior D Andrej Sustr leads the way for the Mavs with 20 points, while sophomore Dillon Simpson has collected 16 points for North Dakota.

A large and vocal UND fan contingent is expected for this weekend in Omaha. Saturday’s game will be played outdoors at TD Ameritrade Park, the home of the College World Series.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (4th season at UNO, 71-60-16, .537)
Pairwise Ranking: 21st
National Ranking: #14
This Season: 16-10-2 overall, 12-6-2 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 14-18-6 overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.57 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.6% (19 of 97)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (97 of 117)

Key Players: Junior F Ryan Walters (16-24-40), Sophomore F Josh Archibald (15-12-27), Sophomore F Dominic Zombo (9-17-26), Junior D Andrej Sustr (7-13-20), Senior D Bryce Aneloski (4-11-15), Senior G John Faulkner (14-5-2, 2.72 GAA, .897 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 227-114-36, .650)
Pairwise Ranking: t-7th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 14-8-6 overall, 9-5-6 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.18 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (24 of 111)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (87 of 104)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-24-36), Senior F Danny Kristo (16-19-35), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (9-9-18), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-13-22), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (2-14-16), Freshman G Zane Gothberg (4-3-2. 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%)

Last meeting: December 10, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after the visiting Mavs claimed a dramatic 2-1 overtime victory, UND netminder Aaron Dell stopped all 26 shots he faced and junior forward Danny Kristo potted the only goal of the contest early in the third period. North Dakota held on for the 1-0 victory. Ryan Massa stopped 31 of 32 shots for the Mavericks.

Last meeting in Omaha: November 20, 2010. Just when it appeared that the two teams were headed to overtime in a scoreless tie, North Dakota’s Brad Malone kicked the puck out of the crease right onto the stick of UNO’s Alex Hudson, and the Maverick forward buried his chance with 0.3 seconds to play in regulation. The two teams played a completely different game in Friday’s opener, with North Dakota claiming a 6-5 victory.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met six times (and the series is tied at three games apiece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha’s John Faulkner is one victory away from tying Dan Ellis for the most career goaltending victories (53) for the Mavericks. North Dakota only has two current players who have scored a goal against Nebraska-Omaha (Danny Kristo and Carter Rowney). UNO’s Ryan Walter became the nation’s first 40 point scorer with his goal last Friday against Michigan Tech. Friday’s game will air live on NBC Sports Network, while Saturday’s outdoor contest will be featured on Midco Sports Network.

The Prediction

North Dakota’s momentum will carry into Friday’s opener, with the top line of Knight, Kristo, and Grimaldi leading the way. Saturday’s outdoor contest, equal parts sport and spectacle, will go to whichever team can handle the elements and the less-than-perfect ice surface. In the rematch, I give a slight edge to the Mavericks. UND 4-2, UNO 4-3.

Despite better and more consistent play over the past two weekends, North Dakota is still struggling to find victories and finds itself in a precarious position for the NCAA tournament with Wisconsin coming to town.

Sound familiar? It’s the same story as last season. Almost exactly one year ago, UND managed no better than splits against Minnesota and St. Cloud State and needed wins against the Badgers. The Green and White swept Bucky out of the Ralph and went 12-3-1 the rest of the way, earning home ice for the playoffs, claiming the Broadmoor trophy, and making the NCAA West Regional final.

This season, Dave Hakstol’s club has struggled to find victories over the past couple of weekends, earning only a pair of ties and two losses against Minnesota and St. Cloud State. UW comes to town white-hot, with a 10-1-3 mark in the past 14 games, the same 14 games that freshman phenom Nic Kerdiles has been in the lineup.

The teams are tied for fourth in the WCHA race, but North Dakota’s picture nationally looks a little brighter than Wisconsin’s: UW is currently 23rd in the Pairwise rankings, while UND sits in 10th.

Mike Eave’s squad boasts a pair of netminders with sub-2.00 goals-against averages, and his team is allowing exactly two goals per game for the season. The struggle for Bucky has been scoring, particularly on the power play. If the two teams earn the same number of man-advantage opportunities, that situation would favor North Dakota.

For Dave Hakstol, freshman goaltender Zane Gothberg has worked his way into a rotation with Clarke Saunders. As a freshman for Alabama-Huntsville, Saunders faced the Badgers twice, and his line is not very impressive: 0-2-0, 6.73 GAA, .821 SV%. It is fair to say that the junior transfer has a different team in front of him this time around.

On the injury front, Wisconsin will be without the services of senior forward Derek Lee, who is still suffering from the effects of a concussion. Lee is second on the team in scoring with 19 points. North Dakota is healthy up and down the lineup, and appears to have more scoring depth than the Badgers.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (11th season at UW, 220-164-49, .565)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Ranking: #19
This Season: 11-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 17-18-2 overall, 11-15-2 WCHA (10th)

Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.4% (8 of 70)
Penalty Kill: 82.4% (70 of 85)

Key Players: Junior F Michael Mersch (15-6-21), Junior F Mark Zengerle (4-9-13), Freshman F Nic Kerdiles (3-7-10 in 14 games), Sophomore D Jake McCabe (2-8-10), Senior D John Ramage (4-3-7), Sophomore G Joel Rumpel (6-6-3, 1.85 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-114-35, .649)
Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 13-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (21 of 99)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (79 of 96)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-23-35), Senior F Danny Kristo (15-18-33), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-11-20), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-4, 2.34 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 28, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rode a strong third period to a 4-2 victory and a series sweep over the visiting Badgers. Wisconsin had swept UND earlier in the year at the Kohl Center. Both Danny Kristo and Brock Nelson had four point weekends for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-64-11 (.568), and holds a 36-32-8 (.526) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had slightly the better of it in the last ten contests, going 5-4-1 (.550) in that stretch. UND has won four of the last six, outscoring Bucky 21-17.

Game News and Notes

Despite coaching for two fewer seasons than his counterpart on the UW bench, North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol has collected six more victories than Mike Eaves. Remarkably, Wisconsin has lost just once in ten road games (6-1-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo has ten points in eight career games against the Badgers, including two goals and two assists in a home sweep last season.

The Prediction

Call it a hunch, but it’s February now and this feels like the weekend where UND’s effort translates to goals and victories. It won’t be easy, but North Dakota’s power play and penalty kill will lead the way. UND 2-0, 3-2.