Frozen Four Preview: UND vs. Michigan

The top two hockey programs in NCAA history will square off today with a chance to advance to the 2011 national title game. The Michigan Wolverines are seeking their 10th NCAA championship, while North Dakota is looking to hoist banner number eight.

It is worth noting that Michigan collected six national championships by 1956. In the past 55 years, the Wolverines have three. During that same span (1957-2010), the Fighting Sioux have won seven national titles.

The Fighting Sioux enter the tournament on a 15-game unbeaten streak (14-0-1), and boast a win total (32) good for third place all-time among North Dakota hockey teams (the 1986-87 championship team collected 40 victories, while the 1981-82 championship team notched 35).

Much has been made of North Dakota’s familiarity with Xcel Energy Center, and that part is true: UND has won its last five games in St. Paul, including a recent WCHA Final Five tournament title. But it’s also important to remember that while the Fighting Sioux are 17-4-2 (.783) on the road this season, the Wolverines are a far more pedestrian 12-8-3 (.587).

Michigan rode a pair of one-goal victories over Nebraska-Omaha and Colorado College to advance to the Frozen Four, while North Dakota steamrolled Rensselaer and Denver by a combined score of 12-1.

UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and five Frozen Four appearances. Michigan’s Red Berenson won titles with the Wolverines in 1996 and 1998, and has his team in the Frozen Four for the second time since 2003.

The Maize and Blue have played in the NCAA tournament in each of the past 21 seasons. Incidentally, the next longest active streak belongs to New Hampshire (11). Before this current stretch, Michigan had appeared in the national tournament once between 1964 and 1991.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four championship game and face either Notre Dame or Minnesota-Duluth in the finals. The Fighting Irish and Bulldogs are each looking for their first national title.

Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: Red Berenson (27th season at Michigan, 727-338-73, .671)
This Season: 28-10-4 overall, 20-7-1-0 CCHA (1st)
Last Season: 26-18-1 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 14-13-1 CCHA (7th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #6/#2
Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.26 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (33 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (157 of 189)
Key Players: Senior F Carl Hagelin (18-30-48), Senior F Louie Caporusso (11-19-30), Senior F Matt Rust (5-20-25), Senior D Scooter Vaughan (13-10-23), Freshman D Jon Merrill (7-17-24), Senior G Shawn Hunwick (21-8-4, 2.26 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 187-92-27, .655)
This Season: 32-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.14 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.3% (52 of 223)
Penalty Kill: 86.0% (172 of 200)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-24-60), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-18-43), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (17-24-41), Senior F/D Jake Marto (8-11-19), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (30-6-2, 1.81 GAA, .924 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 24, 2007 (Denver, CO). In the semifinals of the NCAA West Regional, North Dakota scored five power play goals to defeat the Wolverines. The Maize and Blue scored two opening minute goals in the first period and matched that feat with two early markers in the middle frame, but the Fighting Sioux fought back to advance to the regional final.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota holds a record of 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the schools, and the Fighting Sioux are unbeaten in the series since 1998.

All-time Series: Michigan leads the series 45-40-4 (.528), but North Dakota has won two of the three NCAA tournament games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Michigan last defeated North Dakota in March of 1998, handing that Fighting Sioux team just its eighth loss of the season. UND has outscored opponents 78-20 during its current 15-game unbeaten streak. The Fighting Sioux are 24-3-2 (.862) since Thanksgiving; Michigan, 20-7-1 (.732). Today’s semifinal game will be covered on ESPN2, with live coverage of the Frozen Four viewing party at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The Prediction

UND has small edges in almost every area on the ice: specialty teams, goaltending, depth, experience, and top-end talent. Michigan needs to score first to keep the crowd out of the game. I think this one will be tied going into the third period, with North Dakota’s depth shining through. UND 4-2.

Bonus Frozen Four Prediction:

In the first semifinal, Minnesota Duluth will ride the goaltending of Kenny Reiter and the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly) to their first national title game since 1984. UMD 3-1.

National Championship Prediction:

I have a sneaking suspicion that the all-WCHA final will go into overtime and perhaps even longer, with North Dakota topping the Bulldogs in a championship game for the ages. UND 5-4 (OT).

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

NCAA to drop nickname settlement and sanctions altogether if UND wins hockey championship

We’ve just received word that the University of North Dakota has a tremendous opportunity to settle the Fighting Sioux nickname debate on the ice next weekend in St. Paul.

And it’s as simple as this: win two games at the Frozen Four, and keep the team name and logo forever.

NCAA president Mark Emmert said that the organization’s change of heart came after watching North Dakota play in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin last weekend. Emmert said he was impressed by the quality of play and quality of character demonstrated by the Green and White against RPI and Denver. Furthermore, Emmert noted that he had been swayed by the sheer number of Sioux fans in attendance, also noting the pro-UND crowd at the WCHA Final Five.

Dr. Mark A. Emmert became the 5th Executive Director of the National Collegiate Athletic Association on November 1, 2010, and he has already made waves for his desire to have a serious discussion about whether and how to share some of the NCAA’s profits with student-athletes.

So it’s no surprise that the new president decided that the decision and settlement struck by predecessor Myles Brand deserved a second look. After some careful deliberation, Emmert came up with an idea that is both innovative and intriguing: let the team earn the right to keep the name by competing for it on the ice. He was clear, however, that anything less than a national championship would not sway the NCAA.

A news conference is scheduled for 4:01 p.m. CDT.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Denver

Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin has now scored a goal in nine straight games, and his 36 goals this season place him in the top ten among North Dakota’s all-time single season goal scorers. Frattin would need four more goals to break into the top five, a list that includes Bob Joyce (52 goals in 1986-87), Tony Hrkac (46 in 1986-87), Doug Smail (43 in 1979-80), Russ Romaniuk (40 in 1990-91), and Ben Cherski (40 in 1953-54).

During UND’s current 14 game unbeaten streak (13-0-1), Frattin has notched 16 goals and added 13 assists for 29 points (2.07 points per game).

In Denver’s last twelve contests, the Pioneers are 7-5-0. Three of DU’s last four games have gone to overtime, including last night’s double overtime victory over Western Michigan.

The Pioneers had an interesting cycle broken at the 2011 WCHA Final Five. Had the Pioneers defeated North Dakota in the title game, they would have continued their string of WCHA playoff championships every three years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008).

After winning back-to-back national championships in 2004 and 2005, the Pios missed the NCAA tournament for two seasons before making a return in 2008. DU has played in the NCAAs the past four seasons, while North Dakota is making their ninth straight appearance.

Denver’s George Gwozdecky has been behind the bench for 17 seasons, leading the Pioneers to three WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA Final Five championships, and two national championships. UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and four Frozen Four appearances.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four (St. Paul, MN) and face Michigan in the semifinals. The Michigan Wolverines have nine national titles to their credit, while the Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Sioux each claim seven.

The other half of the Frozen Four bracket claims much less hardware. Minnesota-Duluth will face either Notre Dame or New Hampshire in the other semifinal in St. Paul. All three of those teams are looking for their first national championship.

There has been no official word on Sioux center Brock Nelson’s injury, although the team does not expect him back in the lineup against Denver.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (17th season at DU, 398-238-55 .616)

This Season: 25-11-5 overall, 17-8-3 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 27-10-4 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 19-5-4 WCHA (1st)

Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.61 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.0% (35 of 184)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (164 of 190)

Key Players: Freshman F Jason Zucker (22-22-44), Senior F Kyle Ostrow (15-13-28), Senior F Drew Shore (23-23-46), Senior F Anthony Maiani (8-28-36), Freshman D David Makowski (6-23-29), Sophomore D Matt Donovan (9-23-32), Freshman G Sam Brittain (19-8-5, 2.20 GAA, .924 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 186-92-27, .653)
This Season: 31-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-23-59), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-17-42), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-24-40), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (29-6-2, 1.83 GAA, .923 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 19, 2011 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota and Denver needed two overtimes to decide the WCHA Final Five championship, and Matt Frattin provided the knockout punch. Frattin also netted the game-winner against Colorado College one night earlier and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. Exactly one year earlier, North Dakota knocked off the #1-seeded Pioneers to advance to the Final Five title game.

Last Meeting in the NCAA tournament: April 9, 2005 (St. Louis, MO). Denver’s Paul Stastny (two goals and one assist) and Peter Mannino (44 saves) led the Pioneers to a 4-1 victory in the 2005 national championship game. Travis Zajac scored the only goal for North Dakota, who put 23 shots on net in the third period alone but came up empty.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

Last Ten Games: Denver has had a slight edge lately, going 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten meetings between the schools.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 132-115-8 (.533).

Game News and Notes

Denver freshman forward Jason Zucker scored three goals in a weekend series at North Dakota in October but was held off the scoresheet against UND at the WCHA Final Five. North Dakota is the only #1 seed remaining in the NCAA tournament (Boston College, Miami, and Yale lost this weekend). Hobey Baker hopeful Matt Frattin has 47 goals in his last 55 games. In this year’s playoffs (five games) the Pioneers have outscored opponents 13-1 in the third period. UND sophomore netminder Aaron Dell notched his 29th victory of the season against RPI, tying Ed Belfour’s single season record at North Dakota.

The Prediction

Denver has talent, grit, and resiliency, and they are never out of a game until the final whistle. That being said, UND is on a mission this season, and they have their sights set on the Frozen Four. This game will be an instant classic and could go either way. The Pioneers had to settle for second place in the WCHA regular season and at the Final Five, and they’ll end up in the same spot again. North Dakota 4-3.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Rensselaer

RPI head coach Seth Appert left the coaching staff at Denver University following the 2005-06 season, and in his first three years behind the bench for the Engineers, he collected 31 victories (31-68-14).

With a victory today, North Dakota would collect its 31st victory of the 2010-11 season.

To be fair, Appert has turned things around at Rensselaer. Last season, RPI finished above .500 (18-17-4), and this year, the Engineers are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995. Rensselaer won the ECAC playoff title that season, and has not collected any hardware since then, a span of 15 years.

Since 1995, North Dakota has won six WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA playoff championships, and two national titles among 13 NCAA tournament appearances and seven trips the Frozen Four.

RPI senior forward Chase Polacek is the two-time ECAC player of the year and a Hobey Baker finalist this season. 11 of his 21 goals have come with the man advantage, and he has nine game winners to his credit.

North Dakota boasts a Hobey finalist of their own in senior forward Matt Frattin, who netted both game winners last weekend at the WCHA Final Five. Frattin’s 35 goals lead the nation, and he is almost certain to find his name in the Hobey Hat Trick later this month.

Rensselaer hasn’t played since March 6th, when they were bounced by Colgate in double overtime in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. RPI has won only twice in the last nine games (2-6-1), with three of those losses coming in overtime. To be be fair, goaltender Allen York was sick or injured for the majority of that stretch.

UND is unbeaten in their last 13 games (12-0-1), outscoring opponents 66-19 in that span. It is worth noting that two of those victories came against Colorado College by scores of 6-0 and 4-3.

In one-goal games this season, North Dakota is 8-3-0, while RPI is a pedestrian 8-8-0. Away from home, the Engineers are 7-6-3, while the Fighting Sioux boast a 12-4-2 mark on the road.

Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire (undisclosed injury) has been practicing with the team and is expected to be in the lineup this afternoon.

North Dakota should be able to roll four lines and play whichever style the Engineers bring to the ice today. Goaltending is the great equalizer in playoff hockey, however, and RPI’s Allen York is capable of keeping his team in any contest.

Rensselaer Team Profile

Head Coach: (Seth Appert, 5th season at RPI, 69-97-23, .426)
This Season: 20-12-5 overall, 11-9-2 ECAC (t-4th)
Last Season: 18-17-4 overall, 10-9-3 ECAC (t-5th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-13th
National Rankings: #16/#15
Team Offense: 2.97 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.27 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (36 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.8% (162 of 191)
Key Players: Senior F Chase Polacek (21-27-48), Senior F Tyler Helfrich (14-24-38), Freshman F Brock Higgs (9-12-21), Sophomore D Nick Bailen (8-28-36), Junior D Mike Bergin (2-16-18), Junior G Allen York (18-10-4, 2.05 GAA, .927 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 185-92-27, .653)
This Season: 30-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (35-22-57), Junior F Jason Gregoire (24-17-41), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-29-42), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-21-37), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (28-6-2, 1.88 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 13, 1990 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota completed the sweep of the visiting Engineers with a 5-3 victory after downing RPI 2-1 a night earlier. Current Sioux coaches Dave Hakstol and Dane Jackson were players on that UND team, while Cary Eades was an assistant on the coaching staff.

Most important meetings: March 16 and 17, 1984 (Troy, NY). The only previous NCAA tournament games between the schools came in March of 1984, when the Fighting Sioux swept the quarterfinal series, 5-4 and 4-2.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 7-1-0 (.875). Rensselaer’s only victory over North Dakota came on November 24, 1984, when RPI crushed the homestanding Sioux 8-2 in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Before today’s matchup in the Midwest regional (Green Bay, WI), the Sioux and Engineers had only played in two locations: Troy, New York (1960, 1981, and 1984) and Grand Forks, ND (1984 and 1990). North Dakota is 17-3-1 (.833) since Christmas and enters the NCAA tournament on a season-long 13-game unbeaten streak (12-0-1).

The Prediction

Everything points to North Dakota in this one. UND has the experience, talent, depth, and tenacity to shut down the Engineers. The only question is how the games will be officiated, as the Fighting Sioux prefer to play fast and physical. If North Dakota gives Rensselaer five or more power plays, it could be a close one. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

NCAA Tournament Predictions

Here they are, my picks for the Frozen Four from each regional:

West Regional Final: Boston College over Nebraska-Omaha

Midwest Regional Final: North Dakota over Denver

Northeast Regional Final: New Hampshire over Merrimack

East Regional Final: Yale over Minnesota-Duluth

Feel free to add your own or let me know how many I get wrong. As always, thanks for reading!

WCHA Final Five Predictions

It’s a little difficult to write a preview for North Dakota’s first game when the opponent hasn’t been set yet. So rather than a full preview, I’ll give you my thoughts for each of the Thursday games and how I see the tournament shaking out:

Quarterfinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #10 Bemidji State (14-17-5)

These two teams haven’t played since late October in Bemidji, when the Bulldogs took three points from the homestanding Beavers. Bemidji is getting great goaltending and UMD is cooling off a bit (4-4-2 in their last ten games), but not that much. BSU doesn’t have an answer for the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly), and Minnesota-Duluth will prevail, 4-2.

Quarterfinal #2: #6 Colorado College (21-17-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

The Seawolves took three of four games from the Tigers in the regular season, and UAA has won five straight coming in to the Final Five. CC has not swept a team since January 14th-15th (Alabama Huntsville). Colorado College has only won one game at the Final Five since 2003, and they’ll go home early again this year. Alaska-Anchorage in a mild upset, 3-2.

Semifinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #2 Denver (23-10-5)

These two teams are so close, but Duluth proved in 2009 that they can win multiple games on Final Five weekend and I have the sense that the Bulldogs will find the championship game yet again. Before the playoffs started, the Pioneers sputtered to the finish line, splitting their last five series in league play (including home losses against St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech). This one could go to overtime, with a Connolly netting the game winner. Minnesota-Duluth 5-4 (OT).

Semifinal #2: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

We saw this matchup twice last month, and there’s no reason to believe Anchorage will muster more than one goal against the Fighting Sioux this time around. UND will need to wear white all weekend (rather than their “business suit” blacks), but it won’t matter here. North Dakota 4-1.

Championship Game: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6)

I would pay to watch these two teams play a seven game series. It’s possible that Duluth would be playing for a #1 seed in the national tournament, and that extra motivation could put them over the top. No matter which way this game goes, I think the Fighting Sioux and Bulldogs will meet somewhere in the NCAAs. I’ll give this round to UMD. Minnesota-Duluth 4-3.

News and Notes:

With two victories this weekend, North Dakota would reach the 30 victory mark for the first time under head coach Dave Hakstol.

According to Jim Dahl’s excellent analysis (found here), North Dakota, Denver, and Duluth are all assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament. Colorado College, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State all need help outside their control, or can secure a bid in the NCAA’s by winning the Final Five this weekend.

On the outside looking in: Nebraska-Omaha is the only WCHA team sitting at home this weekend that can still make the NCAA tournament. The Mavericks can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th in the final Pairwise rankings. The other five teams in the conference (Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, and Michigan Tech) have played their last game for 2010-11.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

Predicting the Hobey Baker Top Ten

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of four.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field (from Niagara and Wisconsin).

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Cam Atkinson, junior forward, Boston College: 28 goals, 20 assists, 48 points

Carter Camper, senior forward, Miami (OH): 17 goals, 35 assists, 52 points

Jack Connolly, junior forward, Minnesota-Duluth: 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points

Stephane Da Costa, sophomore forward, Merrimack: 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points

Matt Frattin, senior forward, North Dakota: 33 goals, 21 assists, 54 points

Andy Miele, senior forward, Miami (OH): 21 goals, 44 assists, 65 points

Justin Schultz, sophomore defenseman, Wisconsin: 18 goals, 29 assists, 47 points

Paul Thompson, senior forward, New Hampshire: 28 goals, 24 assists, 52 points

Paul Zanette, senior forward, Niagara: 29 goals, 26 assists, 55 points

Goaltender:

Keith Kinkaid, sophomore, Union: 25-9-3, 1.98 goals-against average, .920 save percentage, 3 shutouts

A couple of these were very tough calls. I could have gone with North Dakota’s Chay Genoway and Aaron Dell over Justin Schultz and Keith Kinkaid, but I have a feeling that UND will have one Hobey hopeful this year.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

WCHA First Round Playoff Preview: UND vs. Michigan Tech

The future looks brighter for Michigan Tech. The freshmen and sophomore classes continue to lead the Huskies, and all seven point producers last weekend in Houghton were first- and second-year players.

Jamie Russell will graduate only three players after this season, and there’s reason to believe that MTU will avoid the WCHA basement in 2011-2012.

For North Dakota, the time is now. The Fighting Sioux boast two legitimate scoring lines (Frattin-Malone-Trupp and Gregoire-Knight-Hextall) and the league’s best defense and goaltending. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten in their last nine games (8-0-1), and destroyed Michigan Tech last weekend by a combined score of 17-3.

Despite the mismatch, history tells us that at least one of these games will be closer than last weekend’s scores. In March 2009, UND defeated Michigan Tech 5-1, 4-3 in the first round, and in March 2008, the Huskies took North Dakota to a third game, with the Fighting Sioux prevailing in the series 4-0, 2-3 (OT), 2-1.

One area of concern for North Dakota is whether the games will get out of hand if and when the scoreboard gets out of hand. In Saturday’s 11-2 drubbing of the Huskies, Michigan Tech was whistled for 49 minutes in penalties, including a 5 minute major for checking from behind and three 10 minute misconducts. UND would like to get out of this series in two games and in one piece.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-195-37, .293)

This Season: 4-28-4, 2-24-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.0% (24 of 150)
Penalty Kill: 74.8% (107 of 143)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-16-2, 3.86 GAA, .888 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 181-92-27, .648)

This Season: 26-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.30 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.4% (46 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (146 of 172)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (29-20-49), Junior F Jason Gregoire (21-16-37), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-18-34), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-11-17), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (24-6-2, 1.95 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 5, 2011 (Houghton, MI). North Dakota scored early (four goals in the first five minutes) and often (11 goals total) in completing a weekend sweep of the Huskies, 11-2. Jason Gregoire netted a hat trick, and Brett Hextall and Mario Lamoureux both collected four points. Huskies starting goaltender Josh Robinson lasted only 4 minutes and 39 seconds, allowing four goals on six shots.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 142-90-9 (.608), including a 79-33-4 (.698) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 9-0-1 (.950) record in the last ten games between the teams. The only blemish on that mark came in January 2009 when the teams skated to a 3-3 tie in Houghton. North Dakota avenged the tie with a 5-0 drubbing the following night. The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 50-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes

This weekend’s playoff series will mark the third time in four seasons that UND hosts the Huskies in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux forwards Matt Frattin, Jason Gregoire, and Evan Trupp have all joined UND’s Century Club (100 career points) in the past two weekends. North Dakota is now averaging four goals per game, and the team is 20-1-1 when scoring at least four goals.

The Prediction

North Dakota will roll on Friday night, but have a tougher time on Saturday. The Huskies go down, but not without a fight. UND 6-1, 4-2.

Bonus Predictions

#11 MSU-Mankato at #2 Denver: Denver in 3

#10 Bemidji State at #3 Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha in 2

#9 St. Cloud State at #4 Minnesota-Duluth: St. Cloud State in 3

#8 Alaska-Anchorage at #5 Minnesota: Minnesota in 3

#7 Wisconsin at #6 Colorado College: Colorado College in 3

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, suggestions, and predictions.

Weekend Preview: UND at Michigan Tech

It’s been a rough season for the Michigan Tech Huskies. In fact, it’s been a rough three seasons.

Jamie Russell’s squad has won only four games in 2010-11. To put that in perspective, North Dakota won five games in February (5-0-1). At one point, the Huskies went on a winless streak of historic proportions, going 0-23-2 with a stretch of 15 straight losses.

In the past three seasons, MTU has won 15 games (15-81-12). The Fighting Sioux have won 15 games in the past three months (15-3-1).

So it’s no surprise that visiting North Dakota is the heavy favorite in the matchup this weekend and when the teams play at UND in the first round of the WCHA playoffs next week.

But there are signs of improvement for Michigan Tech. The Huskies have only allowed six more power play goals than they’ve scored this season, much better than the -48 they posted over the past two seasons. Although their power play and penalty kill numbers are still dreadful, the biggest difference is that MTU is staying out of the box.

The other bright spot for the Huskies has been the play of their freshman class. Three of the top seven point producers for MTU are first-year players, and as a class, the top six rookies have scored 24 goals and added 43 assists in 201 combined games played.

On the negative side for MTU is team defense and goaltending. Opponents are averaging over 36 shots on goal per game, sophomore G Kevin Genoe is routinely left out to dry, and the team has only allowed two goals or less 5 times all season.

By comparison, UND has allowed two goals or less 22 times this year, and are allowing opponents an average of 24 shots on goal per game.

If you factor in team offense (MTU is scoring 2.09 goals per game; UND 3.74), it’s easy to see why the records are mirror images of each other (MTU 4-26-4, UND 24-8-3).

Despite all of the numbers, it will be very difficult for North Dakota to beat Michigan Tech (or any opponent, for that matter) four consecutive times. I expect one game each weekend to be a close contest, and if the Huskies can get great goaltending, they could steal a game and make UND’s road to the WCHA Final Five very interesting.

In the chase for the MacNaughton Cup (WCHA regular season champion), the Fighting Sioux have clinched at least a share and would capture the trophy outright with at least one point this weekend.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-193-37, .295)

This Season: 4-26-4, 2-22-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.09 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.15 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (24 of 141)
Penalty Kill: 76.9% (100 of 130)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-15-2, 3.61 GAA, .893 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 179-92-27, .646)

This Season: 24-8-3, 19-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 3.74 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.34 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.7% (40 of 184)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (137 of 163)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (27-15-42), Junior F Jason Gregoire (17-14-31), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-24-37), Senior F Evan Trupp (14-17-31), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-9-15), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-13-13), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (23-6-2, 1.98 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Last Meeting in Houghton: November 7, 2009. MTU jumped all over the Sioux early but got into penalty trouble in the middle frame, taking four straight penalties. North Dakota’s Evan Trupp scored two goals in the 4-1 UND victory. A night earlier, the Green and White won 4-2.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 140-90-9 (.605), including a slight edge (59-55-5, .517) in games played in Houghton. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted an 8-1-1 (.850) record in the last ten games between the teams. Michigan Tech’s lone victory in that stretch came at the Great Lakes Invitational (Detroit, MI). The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 36-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes:

UND and Michigan Tech will also meet in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. It will mark the third time in the last four years that North Dakota hosts the Huskies in the postseason. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin joined UND’s Century Club last weekend (100 career points), and two of his teammates are close to that milestone. Senior Evan Trupp (98 career points) and junior Jason Gregoire (97) could find the score sheet often enough this weekend to reach 100.

The Prediction

I’ve got Friday’s opener as all North Dakota, with Michigan Tech sending a message in the rematch that next weekend’s playoff series will not be easy for the Green and White. UND 5-1, 4-3.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

Bemidji State had a rough introduction to the WCHA. In addition to losing their first two games at home to North Dakota by identical 5-2 scores, the Beavers didn’t find their third victory of the season until November 27th. To put that in perspective, North Dakota had won nine games by that point.

That victory over Northern Michigan, coupled with a home sweep over Nebraska-Omaha the following weekend, gave the BSU faithful some hope. Since that time, however, Tom Serratore’s squad has gone just 7-6-3 and are almost certainly going on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Bemidji State is currently in 9th place in the league, tied with the other two “State”s (MSU-Mankato and St. Cloud). If the Beavers are looking to move up in the standings and host playoff games at the BREC, they will need a split (or better) this weekend.

North Dakota hasn’t missed a beat since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite). The team has clicked in their absence, and the return of forwards Jason Gregoire (7-7-14 in his last eight games) and Brett Hextall (5-2-7 in his last five) has softened the blow somewhat.

There is an outside chance that league-leading UND would hoist the MacNaughton Cup (WCHA regular season championship trophy) this weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena. A sweep, coupled with some help (Denver, Duluth, and Nebraska-Omaha are all within three points, with DU and UNO playing each other) could lead to a celebration on Sunday afternoon.

And a final word about the ice conditions: REA is hosting the North Dakota state boys’ and girls’ hockey championships this weekend, in addition to the UND mens’ hockey series against Bemidji State. Kudos to the staff and crew at REA for keeping the ice in great shape over this stretch of games.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (10th season at BSU, 175-142-37 .547)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-12-4 WCHA (t-9th)
Last Season: 23-10-4 (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 14-3-1 CHA (1st)
Pairwise Ranking: 29th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.6% (21 of 102)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (114 of 138)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Read (16-12-28), Senior F Ian Lowe (11-12-23), Sophomore F Jordan George (14-17-31), Junior D Brad Hunt (1-16-17), Freshman D Sam Rendle (3-8-11), Junior G Dan Bakala (11-9-3, 2.17 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 177-92-27, .644)
This Season: 22-8-3, 17-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 3.67 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (34 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (131 of 156)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (24-14-38), Junior F Jason Gregoire (14-14-28), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-20-33), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-13-13), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (21-6-2, 2.02 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 16, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). North Dakota defeated the Beavers 5-2 to earn the road sweep after downing BSU one night earlier by the identical score. Matt Frattin scored four goals and added an assist in the weekend series.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 2009. The Fighting Sioux scored a power play goal thirty seconds into overtime to upend the visiting Beavers 4-3. BSU had tallied its own man-advantage marker midway through the third period to tie the score. North Dakota doubled BSU in the shot department, 40-20.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC (Bemidji Regional Events Center), North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won the last ten meetings between the teams by a combined score of 40-18. One of the victories came in overtime.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 19-1-1 (.929), including a 12-1-1 (.893) record in games played in Grand Forks. BSU’s lone victory over North Dakota came on February 7, 1990.

Game News and Notes:

UND clinched home ice for the opening round of the WCHA playoffs for the ninth consecutive year, the longest active streak in the league. North Dakota forwards Matt Frattin (97 career points) and Evan Trupp (96 career points) could join UND’s Century Club this weekend. This season, Bemidji State is 9-1-1 when leading after two periods and 1-9-1 when trailing after two periods. The Fighting Sioux senior class has scored nearly half (60 of 121) of the team’s goals this season. The Beavers are riding a five game unbeaten streak (3-0-2). Sophomore Aaron Dell has started the last twenty games in net for North Dakota (14-3-2, 1.84 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO in that span).

The Prediction

The afternoon games are always tricky to predict, but North Dakota has been on a roll and the only thing that could derail the train is BSU’s line of Jordan George, Ian Lowe, and Matt Read. I’m seeing two close games, with UND’s depth (watch for scoring from unexpected places this weekend) proving to be the difference. UND 4-2, 3-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.