NCHC Frozen Faceoff Preview: UND vs. Western Michigan

#17 North Dakota (21-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC) squares off against #3 Western Michigan (28-7-1 overall, 15-1-4-4 NCHC) in the semifinals of the last-ever NCHC Frozen Faceoff, and UND must get past the Broncos AND win the championship game (against either #6 Denver or #11 Arizona State) on Saturday night to earn an NCAA tournament bid and extend its season.

Earlier this month, the Broncos clinched the program’s first-ever Penrose Cup as NCHC regular season champions; WMU and Denver will make the NCAAs regardless of results this weekend.

Three weeks ago, UND earned a split at Kalamazoo, losing 6-4 on Friday night before rebounding for a 4-3 overtime victory in the rematch.

The Fighting Hawks hosted WMU two months ago, and while the home squad had a chance in Friday’s opener, it was all Broncos in the rematch. UND drew a penalty late in regulation in game one, but an interference call just 24 seconds later negated the advantage. Early in the extra frame, Western Michigan scored a power play tally to earn the 3-2 victory. On Saturday night, the game was probably closer than the 5-1 final score, but WMU continually frustrated North Dakota in all three zones.

In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Broncos ended up in sixth place (ahead of Duluth, Arizona State, and Miami). Finishing in first and second place in the NCHC, Western Michigan and the Sun Devils were the two biggest surprises in the conference. DU finished in third place, while the Fighting Hawks ended up in fifth.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (10th) are safe; as mentioned above, both Arizona State (15th) and North Dakota (17th) will need to win two games this weekend to extend their season.

Two seasons ago, UND managed to take five of six league points on the road at Kalamazoo (2-2 tie/shootout win; 3-0 win), but the Broncos swept the Fighting Hawks at Ralph Engelstad Arena (4-0, 7-6) to take the season series.

Last year, in the only series between the teams, North Dakota swept Western Michigan at home (5-3, 3-0) to capture the program’s sixth Penrose Cup. In the eleven completed seasons of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, only UND, Denver, and St. Cloud State have hoisted the Penrose.

Fourth-year head coach Pat Ferschweiler (WMU ’93) recently earned a contract extension that will keep him behind the Broncos’ bench through April 2030. Ferschweiler, who had previously been the WMU associate head coach under Andy Murray, also spent four seasons as an assistant coach for the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings.

In his rookie campaign three seasons ago, Ferschweiler went 26-12-1 and brought his team within one game of the Frozen Four, falling to Minnesota in the regional final. In September of 2022, the Western Michigan bench boss was extended through the 2025-26 season. Two seasons ago, he led the Broncos to a 2nd-place finish in the NCHC, an overall record of 23-15-1, and another NCAA tournament appearance. Last season, Ferschweiler once again led his team to the NCAA tourney with an overall mark of 21-16-1.

This year might turn out to be Ferschweiler’s best behind the bench.

After losing seven of his top nine point producers – forwards Luke Grainger (14-34-48 last season), Dylan Wendt (23-21-44), Sam Colangelo (24-19-43), Chad Hillebrand (7-19-26), and Ethan Phillips (9-14-23) and defensemen Zak Galambos (9-12-21) and Carter Berger (4-16-20) – Ferschweiler has his team scoring at a HIGHER rate this season (4.06 goals scored per game in 2024-25; 3.58 in 2023-24).

And the scary part is that this year’s version of the Broncos is much better defensively than any we’ve seen in the Ferschweiler era:

2024-25: 2.08 goals allowed/game
2023-24: 2.55 goals allowed/game
2022-23: 2.62 goals allowed/game
2021-22: 2.59 goals allowed/game

Western Michigan has the luxury of starting either graduate netminder Cameron Rowe (15-2-0, 2.00 goals-against average, .924 save percentage, one shutout) or freshman Hampton Slukynsky (13-5-1, 2.03 GAA, .919 SV%, 1 SO) between the pipes. After alternative for much of the season, Slukynsky has started the last six consecutive games.

Rowe played two seasons at Wisconsin before transferring to WMU, winning just two of his ten starts in his final season with the Badgers with a 4.30 GAA and a save percentage of just .861.

Slukynsky was slated to attend Northern Michigan University before head coach Ryan Potulny departed the program to become the head coach of the Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL). Slukynsky got out of his NLI and chose to attend WMU along with his brother Grant Slukysnky, who entered the portal after playing one season (6-3-9 in 34 games) under Potulny.

In the Division I era (since 1975), the Broncos have had sixteen twenty-win seasons, with nine of those coming between 1984 and 1996 under head coach Bill Wilkinson. At 23-6-1, Pat Ferschweiler has already led his team to twenty victories for the fourth consecutive year.

In the first round of last season’s NCAA tournament, Western Michigan led Michigan State 4-2 heading into the third period. The Spartans pulled within one with eleven minutes remaining and scored an extra-attacker goal with just 55 ticks on the clock. MSU scored less than nine minutes into the first overtime period to complete the comeback.

Turning our attention to this weekend’s matchup, a half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and the Broncos boast TEN lineup regulars who meet that threshold: sophomore forward Alex Bump (20-23-43), sophomore forward Grant Slukysnky (8-25-33), sophomore forward Owen Michaels (14-15-29), senior forward Liam Valente (12-16-28), freshman forward Zach Nehring (13-14-27), graduate forward Tim Washe (14-18-32), freshman forward Iiro Hakkarainen (11-14-25), senior forward Matteo Costantini (8-14-22), junior defenseman Samuel Sjolund (3-24-27), and freshman defenseman Joona Vaisanen (4-18-22).

Matteo Costantini spent his first two seasons at North Dakota (10-14-24 in 60 games played) before transferring to Western Michigan. After amassing 21 points in a brilliant freshman campaign, the fifth-round draft pick of the Buffalo Sabres only managed three points in a disappointing sophomore season. Costantini was not in the UND lineup for the final six games of 2022-2023.

Liam Valente spent his last two seasons at Providence, scoring seven goals and adding thirteen assists in 59 games played.

North Dakota bench boss Brad Berry will have a few more players to work with while fielding a lineup this weekend:

Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:33 per game) played four Saturdays ago after serving a one-game league suspension for fighting; since that time, he has been dealing with a lower-body injury and did not suit up at Western Michigan or in any of the four games against Omaha. Emery traveled with the team and is considered day-to-day.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.

UND has lost a combined 116 games due to injury this season, with thirteen of 24 skaters missing at least one game.

This weekend, North Dakota will have seven players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his 21 points in 25 games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (5-23-28), junior forward Dylan James (14-8-22), freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (16-14-30), sophomore forward Jayden Perron (10-9-19), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-20-24).

Here is a quick peek at how North Dakota and Omaha stack up in various categories:

Goals per game: WMU 4.06 (1st of 64 teams); UND 3.19 (17th)

Goals allowed per game: WMU 2.08 (6th); UND 2.89 (31st)

Shooting percentage: WMU 11.6% (5th); UND 11.2% (9th)

Save percentage: WMU .920 (10th); UND .898 (38th)

Shots on goal/game: WMU 35.1 (4th); UND 28.6 (37th)

Shots on goal allowed/game: WMU 25.9 (10th); UND 28.4 (24th)

Power play efficiency: WMU 25.5% (8th); UND 25.9% (6th)

Penalty kill efficiency: WMU 87.1% (4th); UND 76.6% (50th)

Faceoff win percentage: WMU 54.6% (3rd); UND 51.3% (20th)

Corsi: WMU 57.6% (2nd); UND 50.3% (27th)

Fenwick: WMU 58.3% (2nd); UND 50.4% (29th)

Western Michigan Broncos

Head Coach: Pat Ferschweiler (4th season at WMU, 98-50-4, .658)

National Rankings: #3/#3
Pairwise Ranking: 5th
KRACH Ranking: 439.6 (5th)

This Season: 28-7-1 overall, 15-1-4-4 NCHC (1st of 9 teams)
Last Season: 21-16-1 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinalist), 10-8-1-5 NCHC (6th of 9 teams)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 4.06 goals scored/game – 1st of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.08 goals allowed/game – 6th of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.5% (25 of 98) – 8th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 87.1% (81 of 93) – 4th of 64 teams

Key Players: Sophomore F Alex Bump (20-23-43), Sophomore Forward Grant Slukysnky (8-25-33), Graduate F Tim Washe (14-18-32), Sophomore F Owen Michaels (14-15-29), Senior F Liam Valente (12-16-28), Freshman F Zach Nehring (13-14-27), Junior D Samuel Sjolund (3-24-27), Freshman D Joona Vaisanen (4-18-22), Freshman G Hampton Slukynsky (13-5-1, 2.03 GAA, .919 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 227-118-35, .643)

National Rankings: #17/#17
Pairwise Ranking: 17th
KRACH: 193.2 (18th)

This Season: 21-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC (5th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.19 goals scored/game – 17th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.89 goals allowed/game – 31st of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.9% (26 of 102) – 6th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.6% (89 of 117) – 50th of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (16-14-30), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (5-23-28), Junior F Dylan James (14-8-22), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-16-18), Sophomore F Jayden Perron (10-9-19 in 30 games), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (6-10-16), Senior F Cameron Berg (12-9-21 in 25 games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-20-24), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-7-10), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (18-10-2, 2.66 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 1, 2025 (Kalamazoo, MI). Western Michigan took a 3-2 lead in the third period thanks to two Ty Hendricks goals just two minutes apart. UND battled back and forced overtime on an extra-attacker tally by Sacha Boisvert with just 36 seconds remaining in the game, and the Fighting Hawks’ Jake Livanavage completed the comeback with a power play marker late in the five-minute overtime session. The Broncos outshot North Dakota 36-18 but were continually stymied by UND netminder T.J. Semptimphelter, who finished with 33 saves.

Last Meeting at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff: March 18, 2022 (St. Paul, MN). After Judd Caulfield gave UND an early 1-0 lead, the Broncos stampeded back with three straight goals. North Dakota’s Nick Portz drew the Green and White within one with just seven seconds remaining in the middle frame, but the Fighting Hawks managed just six third-period shots and surrendered an empty-net goal in a 4-2 loss. UND went 0-for-5 on the power play. North Dakota had won the four prior neutral-site games between the two teams.

Most Important Meeting: March 24, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota upended Western Michigan 3-1 in the NCAA West Regional semifinal. Brock Nelson had two points, including an empty net goal with 25 seconds remaining that sent UND to the regional finals against Minnesota. Aaron Dell made 24 saves for the Green and White. The Broncos, who have played at the Division I level since 1975-76, have nine NCAA tournament appearances.

A Trip Down Memory Lane: Saturday, March 22, 2014 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota faced a must-win situation in the 3rd place game at the inaugural NCHC Frozen Faceoff, and did not disappoint the partisan crowd. The Green and White rolled to a 5-0 victory behind two first-period goals from Conner Gaarder. UND netminder Zane Gothberg made 25 saves for the shutout, and Dave Hakstol’s crew played the waiting game for several more hours before discovering that they had indeed made the NCAA tournament for the twelfth consecutive season.

All-Time Series: In the short history between the schools, UND has won 31 of the 47 games (31-15-1, .670). Before the 2016-17 season in which Western Michigan won three of the four meetings, WMU’s lone victory over North Dakota was a 2-1 road win on March 8th, 2014. The teams first met in 1997.

Last Ten: Western Michigan has a slight 5-4-1 (.550) advantage in the last ten meetings between the two teams, even though only four of those ten games were played in Kalamazoo. The combined score of the last ten contests? Broncos 33, Fighting Hawks 30.

Game News and Notes

Western Michigan moved up to the Division I ranks beginning with the 1975-76 season and has advanced to the NCAA tournament nine times. The Broncos have made the NCAA tourney four times (2017, 2022, 2023, 2024) in their first eleven seasons in the NCHC after advancing to the national tournament twice (2011, 2012) in the last three seasons in the now-defunct CCHA. UND senior forward Cameron Berg has four goals and nine points in his fourteen career games against WMU while junior forward Owen McLaughlin has ten points in his ten matchups against the Broncos. North Dakota freshman forward Sasha Boisvert was just named NCHC Rookie of the Year, joining Brock Boeser, Shane Pinto, and Jackson Blake as UND’s winners in the twelve-year history of the league.

The Prediction

This is as plainly as I can put it: Western Michigan is the best team North Dakota has faced this year. The Broncos have everything it takes to make a deep NCAA tournament run, and they don’t have a weakness. The Fighting Hawks will rely on two advantages tonight: a partisan crowd, and the reality that for this squad, there is no tomorrow. UND will need to get pucks deep, stay out of the penalty box, and get great goaltending to compete tonight. It’s close, but I think Brad Berry’s squad will get the job done and advance to the title game. UND 4-3.

Bonus Prediction

Arizona State will topple the Denver Pioneers, setting up an epic Frozen Faceoff championship between two teams who both need a victory to secure an NCAA tournament berth.

Broadcast Information

Puck drop is set for 7:37 p.m. Central Time on Friday night, with the game broadcast exclusively on CBS Sports Network. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Last Call In St. Paul: A Walk Down Memory Lane

March 15th, 1997.

UND freshman forward Peter Armbrust scores less than three minutes into overtime to give North Dakota a 4-3 victory over Minnesota and the WCHA playoff title.

Two weeks later, the Fighting Sioux beat Boston University 6-4 to secure the program’s sixth national championship.

By then, I was certain that I was going to be attending the next WCHA playoff tournament in person.

One year later, we planned a spring break hockey road trip that wound through Duluth, Chicago, and Detroit before settling in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the site of the 1998 WCHA men’s ice hockey tournament.

In 1999, we made the trek to Target Center in downtown Minneapolis.

I skipped the 2000 tournament (also at Target Center) to be present for our first prenatal visit (we were expecting our son in October of that year).

In 2001, my wife took her very first hockey road trip, to the inaugural WCHA Final Five at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul. Even though a North Dakota rally fell short in overtime against St. Cloud State in the title game, we were hooked.

There was nothing quite like so many different fan bases – the Duluth Bulldogs, Minnesota Gophers, North Dakota Fighting Sioux, St. Cloud State Huskies, and Wisconsin Badgers – all gathered under one roof and cheering nearly as much against their bitter rivals as for their favorite squads.

For a dozen years more years after that first Final Five, we enjoyed the intense battles, the good-natured ribbing, and the fun on the streets of downtown St. Paul. We shared news about Pairwise predicaments, thought through a variety of potential NCAA regional brackets, and maybe even watched a little basketball along the way.

Beginning in 2014 (and necessitated by college hockey re-alignment), the event was re-branded as the NCHC Frozen Faceoff and moved across the river to Target Center, where it lived until 2017.

The league re-located the postseason tournament to Xcel Energy Center in 2018, where it has resided ever since, with the exception of 2020 (cancelled) and 2021 (held in Grand Forks).

All told, this weekend will be my 25th time attending the league postseason tournament, and while there was fun to be had throughout all of those years, my most vivid memories (and nearly all of the responses I collected for this article) have to do with the Golden Era of the WCHA Final Five, played from 2001-2013 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Here are the highlights:

SJHovey (SiouxSports.com): The years at the X and before the WCHA broke up were obviously the golden years. It was a perfect storm. You had a new arena, in a city that had made an effort to have food, drink, and hotel establishments within walking distance of it. You had a period of dominance by the conference that was something to behold. Five straight national champions. Multiple programs with Frozen Four appearances. Great players.

@Biddco (X-Twitter): Of course my favorite is when UMD won the Final Five in 2009. First time a road team did so. First time I saw any team of mine win a trophy. Was super cool!

Doug Iverson (Facebook): It’s always a great time when the UND band comes to a bar and plays for the crowd. In the early days of hosting at McGovern’s, their staff had no idea what to expect as far as support from fans. Oh, and it was always fun watching the Michigan Tech drum line stroll around the X when their team wasn’t there. They were fun.

@INCH (X-Twitter): When Denver’s Shawn Kurulak beat NoDak’s Karl Goehring with a 3rd period backhand sauce from the blue line for the GWG in the ’99 WCHA title game.

Wilbur (SiouxSports.com): Believe it was the 2004 title game with the Sioux and Gophers. Sold out Xcel Energy Center. Wide open game that the Gophers won 5-4. That was fantastic for college hockey.

@ronko87 (X-Twitter): Tyler Hirsch crashes the net

ChrisUND1 (SiouxSports.com): McGoverns and beer tents.

@RichardNeedham1 (X-Twitter): My favorite is Alex Stalock standing on his head in 2009 to help UMD win the WCHA Final Five. He gave up 1 goal in 3 games against Minnesota, North Dakota, and Denver. I believe UMD was the #7 seed in the tournament that season.

@real_GrantZ (X-Twitter): Zach Okabe OT game-winner over Nodak a few years back. (editor’s note: this was in 2023)

Snake (SiouxSports.com): For me, it was taking over the Embassy Suites in St. Paul for the weekend. The happy hour memories are too many to count!

Doug Iverson (via Facebook): Obviously (UND) winning the last three Final Fives was awesome! Plus the timeout game was pure craziness.

Thank you for the segue, Doug. There are certainly a few memories, games, and plays that stand head and shoulders above the rest; here they are, at least from the North Dakota side of things:

#5 Evan Trupp, Stick Handling Wizard

March 18th, 2011. In the third period of the WCHA Final Five semifinals, UND and Colorado College are tied at two goals apiece. North Dakota senior forward Evan Trupp attempts the most ambitious coast-to-coast goal in the history of history. While he doesn’t score on the play, a buzz filters through the crowd as more and more people realize what just happened.

UND would score shorthanded soon after to break the tie and went on to win the game 4-3; Trupp assisted on the game-winner. This victory set up a championship game showdown with the Denver Pioneers (see #3 below).

#4 North Dakota’s Furious Comeback in 2001

March 17th, 2001. Down 5-2 with less than eight minutes to play in the WCHA Final Five Championship game, UND begins clawing back. When Jeff Panzer scored with 5:35 remaining to make the score 5-3, his look to his teammates in the celebration huddle seems to suggest, “Why not get a couple more here and make things interesting?”

For me and my family and friends, this is the “Is there still time left on the clock?” game.

farce poobah (SiouxSports.com): At the point it was 2-5, my daughter (age 8) looked at the scoreboard, saw we were behind with 6 minutes left, and said, “We have Panzer. I think we will win.”

Debbie Gieseke Forst (via Facebook): 2001 final UND vs. St. Cloud State. UND was down three goals in the third period, Dean Blais pulled the goalie, and UND came back to tie the game to send it to overtime. UND lost in OT but it was still a thrilling game in the new Xcel rink.

gordwiser (SiouxSports.com): 2001… first year the Final Five is at the X. Sioux were down 5-2 to St. Cloud with less than six minutes left. People were starting to stream out. Blais pulls the goalie and sure enough, the Sioux score and the exodus slows… then they score again… then again to tie it up. The place was going nuts. St. Cloud won in overtime, but it was the start of something grand with the Final Five and it was an amazing era for the WCHA.

#3 Matt Frattin’s Overtime Winner

March 19th, 2011. Denver and North Dakota are locked in an epic battle for the WCHA Final Five Championship. After a scoreless first overtime, UND dominates the second extra session, punctuated by Matt Frattin’s game-winner, his 35th goal of the season.

AlphaMikeFoxtrot (SiouxSports.com): Frattin’s overtime goal in 2011. His redemption story after getting kicked off the team remains my favorite article about the team published outside of the Herald.

#2 Blake Wheeler’s Overtime Winner

March 17th, 2007. After defeating St. Cloud State 6-2 in the semifinals, North Dakota locks heads with Minnesota in the title game. UND kills all eight Gopher power plays in the game but has no answer for Blake Wheeler, who – in attempting to get his stick on the puck and negate an icing call less than four minutes into overtime – scores a diving goal for the ages.

#1 The Timeout Game

March 16th, 2012. After winning Thursday’s play-in game 4-1 over St. Cloud State, UND faced a rested and ready Minnesota squad. And it showed. Midway through the second period, North Dakota had just four shots on goal and trailed 3-0 (and, were it not for Aaron Dell’s goaltending, it could have been even worse).

A hockey coach has only one timeout. Dave Hakstol used his, and everything changed. North Dakota scored on a Derek Forbort blast from the blue line to make it a 3-1 game heading into the second intermission.

In the third period, the green goals rained down in bunches. Michael Parks and Brock Nelson in the span of 30 seconds. Mario Lamoureux and Corban Knight in the span of 37 seconds. By the time it was 6-3, all of the Maroon and Gold had left the building.

Sweethockey (SiouxSports.com): The “Timeout game”. Prior to the game walking in the concourse yelling SIOUX YEH YEH!!, then hearing the response fill the arena like a sleeping giant just woke up.

@Biddco (X-Twitter): As a neutral fan the Timeout Game was a classic. First time experiencing the rivalry. Sat with a UND fan friend and Minnesota fan friend.. saw agony and ecstasy in both fans and in inverse.

Emerald Joker (SiouxSports.com): For me it was the Sioux down 3-0 to Minnesota going into the 3rd, then coming back scoring 6 goals in a row to win their 3rd WCHA Final Five championship in a row! Awesome night of hockey!

Thank you so much to everyone who contributed to this walk down memory lane. And, fittingly, it’s InHeavenThereIsNoBeer (SiouxSports.com) with the final thought:

It’s nostalgia and camaraderie that keeps bringing me back. One last trip down I-94 for this final year’s version to put a cap on it. The end of an era.

For many of us, this weekend truly marks the end of an era. Fans will always remember their first Final Five, and together, we’ll enjoy one last call in St. Paul. Here’s to hockey!

NCHC Playoff Preview: North Dakota at Omaha

It’s deja vu all over again.

For the second time in three seasons, UND heads down I-29 through South Dakota to Nebraska to face the Mavericks, and, just like in March 2023, the season is on the line for both teams.

On the final weekend of the 2022-2023 regular season, North Dakota swept Omaha (5-4 OT, 2-1). The Fighting Hawks dropped Game One of the playoff series in Omaha by a final score of 2-1 before winning two straight (3-1, 5-2) and advancing to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff in St. Paul, Minnesota.

This time around, #17 North Dakota (19-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC) and #20 Omaha (18-15-1 overall, 13-8-2-1 NCHC) are in the same boat. Both teams must win this weekend’s best-of-three playoff series AND win two games at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff to make the national tournament.

Here are the other three first-round matchups:

8-seed St. Cloud State at 1-seed Western Michigan
7-seed Minnesota Duluth at 2-seed Arizona State
6-seed Colorado College at 3-seed Denver

In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Broncos ended up in sixth place (ahead of Duluth, Arizona State, and Miami). After locking up the top two spots in the league standings, Western Michigan and the Sun Devils have been the two biggest surprises in the conference.

Before this season, only UND, Denver, and St. Cloud State had hoisted the Penrose. In this, the twelfth season of the NCHC, Western Michigan joins that group.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (9th) are safe; the rest of the teams in the league will have to win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.

Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:

Arizona State: 16th
North Dakota: 18th
Omaha: 28th
St. Cloud State: 34th
Colorado College: 37th
Minnesota Duluth: 42nd
Miami: 63rd

It is odd that, prior to last weekend, North Dakota and Omaha had not faced each other this season. Last year, the Mavericks got the best of UND, earning eight of twelve league points in the regular season and besting North Dakota in the semifinals of the Frozen Faceoff.

On January 12th and 13th, 2024, UND took four of six league points in a home series against Omaha, falling 5-4 in overtime on Friday night before rebounding for a 3-1 regulation win in Saturday’s rematch. The disappointing thing about the series opener is that North Dakota led 3-1 after the first period. The Mavericks won the middle frame decisively, however, outscoring the homestanding Hawks 3-1. Both teams scored twice with the man advantage. Omaha scored just 34 seconds into the 3-on-3 overtime session to grab the extra league point.

Saturday’s finale was a bit more of a defensive struggle, with Omaha tying the game at one goal apiece just 49 seconds into the third period. UND’s Dylan James scored the game-winner three minutes later, and former Maverick Cameron Berg iced the game with an empty-net goal in the final thirty seconds. North Dakota outshot Omaha 30-23 on Saturday night and 69-47 on the weekend.

Almost exactly one year ago, UND traveled down I-29 to face the Mavericks on the last weekend of the regular season. The homestanding Mavs were clearly the hungrier team in Friday’s opener, as North Dakota was fresh off a Penrose Cup-clinching performance at home just six days earlier. The Fighting Hawks trailed 3-2 headed into the final twenty minutes of game one, and, despite a 14-4 advantage in shots on goal in the third period, could not find the equalizer.

In the rematch, little-used netminder Seth Eisele made 38 saves for Omaha in a 4-1 victory. Ludvig Perrsson was good but not great for UND (21 saves, three goals allowed).

And on March 22, 2024, Omaha defeated North Dakota 6-3 in the NCHC semifinals at Xcel Energy Center (St. Paul, Minnesota). UND drew within one goal with just 24 seconds remaining in the second period but gave up a critical fourth goal to the Mavericks just 78 seconds into period three. Despite a 14-7 shot advantage in the third period, the Fighting Hawks were outscored 3-1 in the final frame.

Turning our attention to this weekend…

A half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Mike Gabinet’s squad has just seven players who meet that threshold: graduate forward Sam Stange (15-17-32), graduate forward Brady Risk (13-11-24), senior forward Zach Urdahl (12-10-22), graduate forward Harrison Israels (9-13-22), junior forward Cam Mitchell (8-12-20), sophomore forward Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), and junior defenseman Jacob Guevin (6-13-19).

If those names are unfamiliar to North Dakota fans, it’s because Omaha’s top four point-getters are all transfers. Urdahl transferred from Wisconsin two seasons ago, while Stange left last year. Risk and Israels previously suited up for Alaska, appearing at the Ralph last season with the Nanooks (current UND junior defenseman Caleb MacDonald was their former teammate).

North Dakota bench boss Brad Berry will have a few more players to work with while fielding a lineup this weekend:

Junior defenseman Caleb MacDonald, who left last Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, has returned to practice and is expected to play this weekend.

Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:33 per game) played three Saturdays ago after serving a one-game league suspension for fighting; since that time, he has been dealing with a lower-body injury and did not suit up at Western Michigan or vs. Omaha. Emery traveled with the team and is considered day-to-day.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.

UND has lost a combined 114 games due to injury this season, with thirteen of 24 skaters missing at least one game.

This weekend, North Dakota will have seven players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his 21 points in 23 games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (5-22-27), junior forward Dylan James (14-8-22), freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (16-12-28), sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-9-18), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-19-23).

Here is a quick peek at how North Dakota and Omaha stack up in various categories:

Goals per game: Omaha 2.97 (25th of 64 teams); UND 3.20 (16th)

Goals allowed per game: Omaha 2.74 (23rd); UND 2.94 (31st)

Shooting percentage: Omaha 10.4% (20th); UND 11.1% (10th)

Save percentage: Omaha .923 (8th); UND .895 (45th)

Shots on goal/game: Omaha 28.5 (38th); UND 28.8 (34th)

Shots on goal allowed/game: Omaha 35.4 (63rd); UND 28.1 (23rd)

Power play efficiency: Omaha 21.6% (25th); UND 25.5% (7th)

Penalty kill efficiency: Omaha 76.5% (49th); UND 76.1% (51st)

Faceoff win percentage: Omaha 48.8% (38th); UND 51.7% (19th)

Corsi: Omaha 46.0% (55th); UND 50.3% (30th)

Fenwick: Omaha 45.1% (56th); UND 50.4% (28th)

Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Gabinet (8th season at UNO, 135-129-19, .511)

National Rankings: #20/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 28th
KRACH Rating: 139.1 (23rd)

This Season: 18-15-1 overall, 13-8-2-1 NCHC (4th)
Last Season: 23-13-4 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 8-8-8-0 NCHC (5th)

Team Offense: 2.97 goals scored/game – 25th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.74 goals allowed/game – 23rd of 64 teams

Power Play: 21.6% (25 of 116)– 25th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.5% (65 of 85)– 49th of 64 teams

Key Players: Graduate F Sam Stange (15-17-32), Graduate F Brady Risk (13-11-24), Senior F Zach Urdahl (12-10-22), Graduate F Harrison Israels (9-13-22), Junior F Cam Mitchell (8-12-20), Sophomore F Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), Junior D Jacob Guevin (6-13-19), Senior D Dylan Gratton (2-12-14). Junior G Simon Latkoczy (14-14-1, 2.68 GAA, .925 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 225-118-35, .642)

National Rankings: #17/#18
Pairwise Ranking: 18th
KRACH: 173.8 (19th)

This Season: 19-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC (5th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game – 16th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game – 31st of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.5% (26 of 102) – 7th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.1% (89 of 117) – 51st of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (16-12-28), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (5-22-27), Junior F Dylan James (14-8-22), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-15-17), Sophomore F Jayden Perron (9-9-18 in 28 games), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (6-9-15), Senior F Cameron Berg (12-9-21 in 23 games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-19-23), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (16-10-2, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 8, 2025 (Grand Forks, ND). It was an odd game to close the home portion of the North Dakota hockey season, as two late goals (19:25 of the first period and 19:40 of the second period) were too much for UND to overcome. As is so often the case in this rivalry, the Fighting Hawks outshot the visitors 37-26 and led in expected goals (3.1-2.8) but fell behind 4-0 and could not recover. Wisconsin transfer Sam Stange had two goals, two assists, and two penalty minutes for Omaha.

Last Meeting in Omaha: March 9, 2024. UND outshot the homestanding Mavs 39-25 but could manage just a single 5-on-3 goal in falling by a final score of 4-1. Omaha netminder Seth Eisele made 38 of 39 saves in the victory. It was much the same story one night earlier, as a 34-23 advantage in shots on goal resulted in a 3-2 loss for the Green and White. Brad Berry’s squad never led in either game, a very telling statistic when these two teams tangle.

Most Memorable Meeting: The game that UND fans will long remember is the outdoor game played at TD Ameritrade Park (Omaha, Nebraska) on February 9th, 2013. One day after winning a tight 2-1 contest indoors, North Dakota throttled UNO 5-2 on a sunny, melty afternoon. Mavericks netminder John Faulkner was pulled after allowing three goals on five shots in just ten minutes of game action. In my opinion, this hockey weekend solidified the notion that for UND hockey, it’s always a home game.

Last Ten: Omaha has a record of 6-4-0 in the last ten meetings between the teams, including a 6-3 semifinal victory at the 2024 NCHC Frozen Faceoff in St. Paul. Five of the other nine games over this stretch were played in Omaha, with the Fighting Hawks taking two of three games in March 2023 and the Mavericks sweeping a regular-season series in March 2024.

All-Time: UND leads the all-time series 37-23-2 (.613), including a record of 18-11-1 (.617) in Omaha. The teams first met on November 19, 2010.

Game News and Notes

Ten seasons ago, both North Dakota and Omaha advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four but neither team made the championship game. UND fell to Boston University 5-3, while the Mavericks were upended 4-1 by eventual national champion Providence. In team history, the Mavericks have made the national tournament five times (2006, 2011, 2015, 2021, 2024), with a Frozen Four appearance under head coach Dean Blais in 2015. North Dakota’s Brad Berry is 28-17-1 (.620) in his head coaching career against Omaha. In 30 of the past 35 contests in this series, the winning team is the one which scores the first goal. This season, North Dakota is 15-2-0 (.882) when scoring first; Omaha, 14-5-1 (.725). UND has outscored opponents 32-26 in the first period of play this season.

The Prediction

For only the fourth time in the last 25 years, North Dakota is heading on the road for the first round of the league playoffs. Despite last Saturday’s lopsided score, I don’t think that Omaha is as deep or as talented as UND. This will take three games, but the Fighting Hawks will get the job done and advance to St. Paul for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. UND 4-3, Omaha 4-2, UND 3-2.

Bonus Predictions

Western Michigan over St. Cloud State in two games
Arizona State over Minnesota Duluth in three games
Denver over Colorado College in three games

Broadcast Information

Game times are set for 7:00 p.m. Central Time on Friday and Saturday and 6:00 p.m. Central Time on Sunday (if necessary). The entire series will be broadcast on Midco Sports Network and also available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. Omaha

#18 North Dakota (18-13-2 overall, 10-7-4-1 NCHC) hosts unranked Omaha (17-14-1 overall, 12-7-2-1 NCHC) in the final regular season action of the season. UND currently trails the Mavericks by two points in the conference standings and will need to sweep this weekend (with at least one victory coming in regulation) to guarantee home ice in the first round of the league playoffs, which start next week.

It is situation critical for Brad Berry’s squad. With an at-large NCAA bid nearly impossible, UND will almost certainly need to advance to St. Paul AND win two games at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff to make the national tournament. A first-round league playoff series at home would certainly make that road a bit easier.

Western Michigan and Arizona State have already secured home ice for the league playoffs, and that leaves two spots up for grabs:

1. Western Michigan (51 points in 22 games played): at Miami this weekend
2. Arizona State (47 points in 24 games played): no games scheduled this weekend
3. Omaha (41 points in 22 games played): at UND this weekend
4. North Dakota (39 points in 22 games played): vs. Omaha this weekend
4. Denver (39 points in 22 games played): vs./at Colorado College this weekend

In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Broncos ended up in sixth place (ahead of Duluth, Arizona State, and Miami). After locking up the top two spots in the league standings, Western Michigan and the Sun Devils have been the two biggest surprises in the conference.

Before this season, only UND, Denver, and St. Cloud State had hoisted the Penrose. In this, the twelfth season of the NCHC, Western Michigan joins that group.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (10th) are relatively safe; the rest of the teams in the league may have to go on a run or win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.

Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:

Arizona State: 15th
North Dakota: 18th
Omaha: 27th
Colorado College: 31st
St. Cloud State: 35th
Minnesota Duluth: 42nd
Miami: 63rd

It is odd that North Dakota and Omaha are facing each other for the first time this season at the very end of the conference schedule. Last year, the Mavericks got the best of UND, earning eight of twelve league points in the regular season and besting North Dakota in the semifinals of the Frozen Faceoff.

On January 12th and 13th, 2024, UND took four of six league points in a home series against Omaha, falling 5-4 in overtime on Friday night before rebounding for a 3-1 regulation win in Saturday’s rematch. The disappointing thing about the series opener is that North Dakota led 3-1 after the first period. The Mavericks won the middle frame decisively, however, outscoring the homestanding Hawks 3-1. Both teams scored twice with the man advantage. Omaha scored just 34 seconds into the 3-on-3 overtime session to grab the extra league point.

Saturday’s finale was a bit more of a defensive struggle, with Omaha tying the game at one goal apiece just 49 seconds into the third period. UND’s Dylan James scored the game-winner three minutes later, and former Maverick Cameron Berg iced the game with an empty-net goal in the final thirty seconds. North Dakota outshot Omaha 30-23 on Saturday night and 69-47 on the weekend.

Almost exactly one year ago, UND traveled down I-29 to face the Mavericks on the last weekend of the regular season. The homestanding Mavs were clearly the hungrier team in Friday’s opener, as North Dakota was fresh off a Penrose Cup-clinching performance at home just six days earlier. The Fighting Hawks trailed 3-2 headed into the final twenty minutes of game one, and, despite a 14-4 advantage in shots on goal in the third period, could not find the equalizer.

In the rematch, little-used netminder Seth Eisele made 38 saves for Omaha in a 4-1 victory. Ludvig Perrsson was good but not great for UND (21 saves, three goals allowed).

And on March 22, 2024, Omaha defeated North Dakota 6-3 in the NCHC semifinals at Xcel Energy Center (St. Paul, Minnesota). UND drew within one goal with just 24 seconds remaining in the second period but gave up a critical fourth goal to the Mavericks just 78 seconds into period three. Despite a 14-7 shot advantage in the third period, the Fighting Hawks were outscored 3-1 in the final frame.

Turning our attention to this season…

A half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Mike Gabinet’s squad has just seven players who meet that threshold: graduate forward Sam Stange (13-15-28), graduate forward Brady Risk (12-10-22), senior forward Zach Urdahl (12-8-20), graduate forward Harrison Israels (7-12-19), junior forward Cam Mitchell (7-11-18), sophomore forward Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), and junior defenseman Jacob Guevin (6-13-19).

If those names are unfamiliar to North Dakota fans, it’s because Omaha’s top four point getters are all transfers. Urdahl transferred from Wisconsin two seasons ago, while Stange left last year. Risk and Israels previously suited up for Alaska, appearing at the Ralph last season with the Nanooks (current UND junior defenseman Caleb MacDonald was their former teammate).

Israels has been out of the lineup since February 15th, while sophomore Tanner Ludtke has not played since November 16th. Ludtke had 28 points in forty games as a freshman last season.

Those two forwards are considered questionable for this weekend, as is Omaha junior netminder Simon Latkoczy (13-13-1, 2.69 GAA, .925 SV%, 1 SO). If Latkoczy isn’t able to suit up, the Mavericks will turn to freshman Kevin Reidler (4-1-0, 3.20 GAA, .920 SV%).

North Dakota bench boss Brad Berry will have a few more players to work with while fielding a lineup this weekend:

It appears as though sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-8-17 in 26 games) will play his first game in four weeks after suffering a lower-body injury against Colorado College.

Senior Swiss Army Knife Dane Montgomery (1-5-6 in 22 games) suffered an upper-body injury three weeks ago at Denver but is expected to play this weekend.

Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:33 per game) played two Saturdays ago after serving a one-game league suspension for fighting; since that time, he has been dealing with a lower-body injury and did not suit up at Western Michigan last weekend. Emery will miss this series as well.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.

UND has lost a combined 112 games due to injury this season, with thirteen of 24 skaters missing at least one game.

If Perron is able to suit up, North Dakota will have eight players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his nineteen points in 21 games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (4-21-25), freshman forward Mac Swanson (2-15-17), junior forward Dylan James (13-8-21), freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (14-11-25), sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-8-17), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (4-22-26), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-18-22).

Here is a quick peek at how North Dakota and Omaha stack up in various categories:

Goals per game: Omaha 2.91 (26th of 64 teams); UND 3.21 (16th)

Goals allowed per game: Omaha 2.72 (25th); UND 2.88 (32nd)

Shooting percentage: Omaha 10.2% (24th); UND 11.2% (8th)

Save percentage: Omaha .924 (6th); UND .898 (40th)

Shots on goal/game: Omaha 28.6 (37th); UND 28.7 (36th)

Shots on goal allowed/game: Omaha 35.6 (63rd); UND 28.2 (24th)

Power play efficiency: Omaha 21.1% (26th); UND 25.3% (10th)

Penalty kill efficiency: Omaha 76.8% (46th); UND 76.5% (49th)

Faceoff win percentage: Omaha 53.7% (9th); UND 51.2% (20th)

Corsi: Omaha 46.0% (55th); UND 50.1% (31st)

Fenwick: Omaha 45.2% (57th); UND 50.1% (30th)

Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Gabinet (8th season at UNO, 134-128-19, .511)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 28th
KRACH Rating: 140.8 (23rd)

This Season: 17-4-1 overall, 12-7-2-1 NCHC (3rd)
Last Season: 23-13-4 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 8-8-8-0 NCHC (5th)

Team Offense: 2.91 goals scored/game – 26th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.72 goals allowed/game – 25th of 64 teams

Power Play: 21.1% (24 of 114)– 26th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.8% (63 of 82)– 46th of 64 teams

Key Players: Graduate F Sam Stange (13-15-28), Graduate F Brady Risk (12-10-22), Senior F Zach Urdahl (12-8-20), Graduate F Harrison Israels (7-12-19), Junior F Cam Mitchell (7-11-18), Sophomore F Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), Junior D Jacob Guevin (6-13-19), Senior D Dylan Gratton (2-12-14). Junior G Simon Latkoczy (13-13-1, 2.69 GAA, .925 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 224-117-35, .642)

National Rankings: #18/#18
Pairwise Ranking: 18th
KRACH: 175.9 (18th)

This Season: 18-13-2 overall, 10-7-4-1 NCHC (4th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game – 16th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.88 goals allowed/game – 32nd of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.3% (25 of 99) – 10th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.5% (88 of 115) – 49th of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (14-11-25), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (4-21-25), Junior F Dylan James (13-8-21), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-15-17), Sophomore F Jayden Perron (9-8-17 in 26 games), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (6-9-15), Senior F Cameron Berg (11-8-19 in 21 games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (4-22-26), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-18-22), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (15-9-2, 2.66 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)

By The Numbers:

Last Meeting: March 22, 2024 (St. Paul, MN). Omaha defeated North Dakota 6-3 in the NCHC semifinals at Xcel Energy Center. UND drew within one goal with just 24 seconds remaining in the second period but gave up a critical fourth goal to the Mavericks just 78 seconds into period three. Despite a 14-7 shot advantage in the third period, the Fighting Hawks were outscored 3-1 in the final frame.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 13, 2024 (Grand Forks, ND). In a tight defensive game, Omaha tied things at one goal apiece just 49 seconds into the third period. UND’s Dylan James scored the game-winner three minutes later, and former Maverick Cameron Berg iced the game with an empty-net goal in the final thirty seconds. One night earlier, North Dakota fans saw a 3-1 first period lead evaporate in a disastrous middle frame that saw the Mavericks outscore the homestanding Hawks 3-1. Omaha scored just 34 seconds into the 3-on-3 overtime session to grab the extra league point. North Dakota outshot Omaha 69-47 on the weekend.

Most memorable meeting: The game that UND fans will long remember is the outdoor game played at TD Ameritrade Park (Omaha, Nebraska) on February 9th, 2013. One day after winning a tight 2-1 contest indoors, North Dakota throttled UNO 5-2 on a sunny, melty afternoon. Mavericks netminder John Faulkner was pulled after allowing three goals on five shots in just ten minutes of game action. In my opinion, this hockey weekend solidified the notion that for UND hockey, it’s always a home game.

Last ten: Each team has won five of the last ten contests, and the combined scoreboard is tied at 29 goals apiece in that stretch. Only four of the last ten games were played in Grand Forks.

All-time: UND leads the all-time series 36-22-2 (.617), including a record of 31-19-2 (.615) against the Mavericks since both teams joined the NCHC and an overall home record of 18-10-1 (.638). The teams first met on November 19, 2010.

Game News and Notes

Ten seasons ago, both North Dakota and Omaha advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four but neither team made the championship game. UND fell to Boston University 5-3, while the Mavericks were upended 4-1 by eventual national champion Providence. In team history, the Mavericks have made the national tournament five times (2006, 2011, 2015, 2021, 2024), with a Frozen Four appearance under head coach Dean Blais in 2015. North Dakota’s Brad Berry is 27-16-1 (.625) in his head coaching career against Omaha. In 28 of the past 33 contests in this series, the winning team is the one which scores the first goal. This season, North Dakota is 14-2-0 (.875) when scoring first; Omaha, 13-5-1 (.711). UND has outscored opponents 31-24 in the first period of play this season.

The Prediction

I’ve had a good feeling about this matchup all week. North Dakota is as healthy as it has been all season, and goaltending has been a major factor in the team’s recent success. Omaha has more question marks right now – particularly in net – and doesn’t appear to be as deep as the home team. I think that both games will be close contests, with the Fighting Hawks treating the home fans to an overtime thriller on Saturday night to secure home ice. UND 4-2, 3-2 (OT).

Broadcast Information

Game times are set for 6:36 p.m. Central Time on Friday and 6:07 p.m. Central Time on Saturday. Friday’s opener will be available exclusively on CBS Sports Network, with Saturday’s rematch broadcast on Midco Sports and also available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: UND at Western Michigan

#18 North Dakota (17-12-2 overall, 10-6-3-1 NCHC) travels to Kalamazoo to face #4 Western Michigan (23-6-1 overall, 12-1-4-3 NCHC) in a pivotal league matchup for both sides. UND is fighting to stay alive in the Pairwise hunt, while the Broncos could well clinch the program’s first Penrose Cup (NCHC regular season championship) this weekend.

The Fighting Hawks hosted WMU just six weeks ago, and while the home squad had a chance in Friday’s opener, it was all Broncos in the rematch. UND drew a penalty late in regulation in game one, but an interference call just 24 seconds later negated the advantage. Early in the extra frame, Western Michigan scored a power play tally to earn the 3-2 victory. On Saturday night, the game was probably closer than the 5-1 final score, but WMU continually frustrated North Dakota in all three zones.

The Fighting Hawks are currently one point behind third-place Omaha and one point ahead of Denver for fourth place in the NCHC, with six points up for grabs in this series. It is becoming increasingly clear that four of these five teams will earn the coveted home-ice spots for the first round of the NCHC playoffs:

1. Western Michigan (47 points in 20 games played): vs. UND, at Miami
2. Arizona State (44 points in 22 games played): at Omaha, BYE
3. Omaha (38 points in 20 games played): vs. Arizona State, at UND
4. North Dakota (37 points in 20 games played): at WMU, vs. Omaha
5. Denver (36 points in 20 games played): vs. SCSU, vs./at Colorado College

In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Broncos ended up in sixth place (ahead of Duluth, Arizona State, and Miami). Currently in first and second place in the NCHC, Western Michigan and the Sun Devils have been the two biggest surprises in the conference.

The Penrose Cup is expected to be on hand at Lawson Ice Arena this weekend for the series between North Dakota and WMU. The Broncos could clinch at least a share of the title with one regulation victory.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (10th) are relatively safe; the rest of the teams in the league may have to go on a run or win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.

Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:

Arizona State: 16th
North Dakota: 19th
Omaha: 28th
Colorado College: 32nd
St. Cloud State: 37th
Minnesota Duluth: 39th
Miami: 63rd

Two seasons ago, UND managed to take five of six league points on the road at Kalamazoo (2-2 tie/shootout win; 3-0 win), but the Broncos swept the Fighting Hawks at Ralph Engelstad Arena (4-0, 7-6) to take the season series.

Last year, in the only series between the teams, North Dakota swept Western Michigan at home (5-3, 3-0) to capture the program’s sixth Penrose Cup. In the eleven completed seasons of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, only UND, Denver, and St. Cloud State have hoisted the Penrose.

Fourth-year head coach Pat Ferschweiler (WMU ’93) recently earned a contract extension that will keep him behind the Broncos’ bench through April 2030. Ferschweiler, who had previously been the WMU associate head coach under Andy Murray, also spent four seasons as an assistant coach for the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings.

In his rookie campaign three seasons ago, Ferschweiler went 26-12-1 and brought his team within one game of the Frozen Four, falling to Minnesota in the regional final. In September of 2022, the Western Michigan bench boss was extended through the 2025-26 season. Two seasons ago, he led the Broncos to a 2nd-place finish in the NCHC, an overall record of 23-15-1, and another NCAA tournament appearance. Last season, Ferschweiler once again led his team to the NCAA tourney with an overall mark of 21-16-1.

This year might turn out to be Ferschweiler’s best behind the bench.

After losing seven of his top nine point producers – forwards Luke Grainger (14-34-48 last season), Dylan Wendt (23-21-44), Sam Colangelo (24-19-43), Chad Hillebrand (7-19-26), and Ethan Phillips (9-14-23) and defensemen Zak Galambos (9-12-21) and Carter Berger (4-16-20) – Ferschweiler has his team scoring at a HIGHER rate this season (3.73 goals scored per game in 2024-25; 3.58 in 2023-24).

And the scary part is that this year’s version of the Broncos is much better defensively than any we’ve seen in the Ferschweiler era:

2024-25: 1.93 goals allowed/game
2023-24: 2.55 goals allowed/game
2022-23: 2.62 goals allowed/game
2021-22: 2.59 goals allowed/game

Western Michigan has the luxury of starting either graduate netminder Cameron Rowe (15-2-0, 2.00 goals-against average, .924 save percentage, one shutout) or freshman Hampton Slukynsky (8-4-1, 1.67 GAA, .939 SV%, 1 SO) between the pipes.

Rowe played two seasons at Wisconsin before transferring to WMU, winning just two of his ten starts in his final season with the Badgers with a 4.30 GAA and a save percentage of just .861.

Slukynsky was slated to attend Northern Michigan University before head coach Ryan Potulny departed the program to become the head coach of the Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL). Slukynsky got out of his NLI and chose to attend WMU along with his brother Grant Slukysnky, who entered the portal after playing one season (6-3-9 in 34 games) under Potulny.

In the Division I era (since 1975), the Broncos have had sixteen twenty-win seasons, with nine of those coming between 1984 and 1996 under head coach Bill Wilkinson. At 23-6-1, Pat Ferschweiler has already led his team to twenty victories for the fourth consecutive year.

In the first round of last season’s NCAA tournament, Western Michigan led Michigan State 4-2 heading into the third period. The Spartans pulled within one with eleven minutes remaining and scored an extra-attacker goal with just 55 ticks on the clock. MSU scored less than nine minutes into the first overtime period to complete the comeback.

Turning our attention to this weekend’s matchup, a half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and the Broncos boast TEN lineup regulars who meet that threshold: sophomore forward Alex Bump (15-19-34), sophomore forward Grant Slukysnky (5-20-25), sophomore forward Owen Michaels (14-11-25), senior forward Liam Valente (12-12-24), freshman forward Zach Nehring (10-11-21), graduate forward Tim Washe (9-12-21), freshman forward Iiro Hakkarainen (8-10-18), senior forward Matteo Costantini (5-12-17), junior defenseman Samuel Sjolund (2-21-23), and freshman defenseman Joona Vaisanen (3-15-18).

Matteo Costantini spent his first two seasons at North Dakota (10-14-24 in 60 games played) before transferring to Western Michigan. After amassing 21 points in a brilliant freshman campaign, the fifth-round draft pick of the Buffalo Sabres only managed three points in a disappointing sophomore season. Costantini was not in the UND lineup for the final six games of 2022-2023.

Liam Valente spent his last two seasons at Providence, scoring seven goals and adding thirteen assists in 59 games played.

North Dakota bench boss Brad Berry will barely be able to field a full lineup this weekend, with several players dealing with injuries:

Sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-8-17 in 26 games) suffered a lower-body injury three weeks ago against Colorado College and has yet to return to the lineup.

Senior Swiss Army Knife Dane Montgomery (1-5-6 in 22 games) suffered an upper-body injury two weeks ago at Denver and is still out.

Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:33 per game) played last Saturday night after serving a one-game league suspension for fighting; he has been dealing with a lower-body injury.

Emery, Perron, and Montgomery are all considered week-to-week.

Graduate forward and team captain Louis Jamernik V (4-6-9 in 23 games) is day-to-day and questionable for the weekend, although head coach Brad Berry expects him to suit up.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.

On the plus side, senior forward Cameron Berg (11-7-18 in nineteen games) has played the last twelve games after missing five consecutive weekends of action.

UND has lost a combined 110 games due to injury this season, with thirteen of 24 skaters missing at least one game.

All of these absences mean that North Dakota will have just seven players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his eighteen points in nineteen games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (4-18-22), freshman forward Mac Swanson (2-15-17), junior forward Dylan James (11-8-19), freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (12-11-23), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (3-22-25), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-18-22).

Western Michigan has a decided edge in the specialty teams department, with a plus-13 to this point in the season. The Broncos have scored nineteen power play goals and allowed just six while scoring one shorthanded goal and giving up one. North Dakota has scored 23 power play goals but allowed 25 and has a slight 4-3 advantage in the shorthanded tallies ledger (3-3).

The other underlying metrics seem to be a toss-up or slightly in favor of Western Michigan.

The Fighting Hawks are scoring on 10.8% of their shots on goal, good for 15th in the country; the Broncos clock in at 10.6% (19th).

For the first time in recent memory, UND will square off against a team with better faceoff statistics. Western Michigan has won 54.5% of draws this season (9th-best in the nation), while North Dakota is at 51.8% (19th).

Puck possession statistics favor the Broncos as well:

Corsi: Western Michigan 56.1 (7th), North Dakota 50.9 (27th)
Fenwick: Western Michigan 56.9 (6th), North Dakota 50.9 (28th)

Corsi measures the share of shot attempts for each team at even strength, while Fenwick measure the share of unblocked shot attempts for each team at even strength.

If North Dakota has an area to clean up, it is the penalty kill. UND has allowed 25 power play goals through the first 31 games of this season and has a success rate of just 76.9% when shorthanded; that mark ranks in the bottom quarter in the country (47th of 64 teams). Last season, the Fighting Hawks allowed just nineteen power play goals all season (40 games).

UND will hope to at least keep pace with Omaha this weekend so that next weekend’s home series against the Mavs will determine home ice for the playoffs. This weekend, the unranked Mavericks host #12 Arizona State.

Western Michigan Broncos

Head Coach: Pat Ferschweiler (4th season at WMU, 93-49-4, .651)

National Rankings: #4/#4
Pairwise Ranking: 5th
KRACH Ranking: 425.9 (5th)

This Season: 23-6-1 overall, 12-1-4-3 NCHC (1st of 9 teams)
Last Season: 21-16-1 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinalist), 10-8-1-5 NCHC (6th of 9 teams)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.73 goals scored/game – 3rd of 64 teams
Team Defense: 1.93 goals allowed/game – 4th of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.3% (19 of 75) – 9th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 91.7% (66 of 72) – 1st of 64 teams

Key Players: Sophomore F Alex Bump (15-19-34), Sophomore Forward Grant Slukysnky (5-20-25), Graduate F Tim Washe (9-12-21), Sophomore F Owen Michaels (14-11-25), Senior F Liam Valente (12-12-24), Freshman F Zach Nehring (10-11-21), Junior D Samuel Sjolund (2-21-23), Freshman D Joona Vaisanen (3-15-18), Graduate G Cameron Rowe (15-2-0, 2.00 GAA, .924 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 223-116-35, .643)

National Rankings: #18/#18
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
KRACH: 177.2 (18th)

This Season: 17-12-2 overall, 10-6-3-1 NCHC (4th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA tournament appearance), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.16 goals scored/game – 19th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game – 30th of 64 teams

Power Play: 25.3% (23 of 91) – 10th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.9% (83 of 108) – 46th of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (12-11-23), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (4-18-22), Junior F Dylan James (11-8-19), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-15-17), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (5-7-12), Senior F Cameron Berg (11-7-18 in nineteen games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (3-22-25), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-18-22), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (14-8-2, 2.54 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 18, 2025 (Grand Forks, ND). Western Michigan continually frustrated North Dakota in all three zones in the 5-1 victory. Alex Bump led the way for the Broncos with two goals and an assist, while freshman netminder Hampton Slukynsky made 24 saves. The home squad had a chance in Friday’s opener, as UND earned a power play late in regulation in a tie hockey game. An interference call just 24 seconds later negated the advantage, and early in the extra frame, Western Michigan scored a power play tally to earn the 3-2 victory.

Last Meeting In Kalamazoo: December 10, 2022. North Dakota opened the scoring with a first-period Judd Caulfield power play goal, withstood a furious Western Michigan second period, and then turned the tables with a two-goal third period to blank the homestanding Broncos. UND netminder Drew DeRidder turned aside all 25 WMU shots, including six off the stick of Jason Pollin. In Friday’s opener, the two teams tied at two goals apiece before freshman Owen McLaughlin scored in the fifth round of the shootout to earn an extra point for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 24, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota upended Western Michigan 3-1 in the NCAA West Regional semifinal. Brock Nelson had two points, including an empty net goal with 25 seconds remaining that sent UND to the regional finals against Minnesota. Aaron Dell made 24 saves for the Green and White. The Broncos, who have played at the Division I level since 1975-76, have nine NCAA tournament appearances.

A Trip Down Memory Lane: Saturday, March 22, 2014 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota faced a must-win situation in the 3rd place game at the inaugural NCHC Frozen Faceoff, and did not disappoint the partisan crowd. The Green and White rolled to a 5-0 victory behind two first-period goals from Conner Gaarder. UND netminder Zane Gothberg made 25 saves for the shutout, and Dave Hakstol’s crew played the waiting game for several more hours before discovering that they had indeed made the NCAA tournament for the twelfth consecutive season.

All-Time Series: In the short history between the schools, UND has won 30 of the 45 games (30-14-1, .678), including twelve of the eighteen games played in Kalamazoo. Before the 2016-17 season in which Western Michigan won three of the four meetings, WMU’s lone victory over North Dakota was a 2-1 road win on March 8th, 2014. The teams first met in 1997.

Last Ten: Western Michigan has a slight 5-4-1 (.550) advantage in the last ten meetings between the two teams, even though only two of those ten games were played in Kalamazoo. The combined score of the last ten contests? Broncos 30, Fighting Hawks 29.

Game News and Notes

Western Michigan moved up to the Division I ranks beginning with the 1975-76 season and has advanced to the NCAA tournament nine times. The Broncos have made the NCAA tourney four times (2017, 2022, 2023, 2024) in their first eleven seasons in the NCHC after advancing to the national tournament twice (2011, 2012) in the last three seasons in the now-defunct CCHA. UND senior forward Cameron Berg has four goals and eight points in his twelve career games against WMU while junior forward Owen McLaughlin has seven points in his eight matchups against the Broncos.

The Prediction

This is as plainly as I can put it: Western Michigan is the best team North Dakota has faced this year. The Broncos have everything it takes to make a deep NCAA tournament run, and they don’t have a weakness. UND will need to get pucks deep, stay out of the penalty box, and get great goaltending to compete this weekend. Fans of the Fighting Hawks should be cheering for a split at best, and it could well work out that way, with the home team clinching the Penrose Cup on Friday night before suffering a bit of a letdown in the rematch. WMU 4-2, UND 3-2.

Broadcast Information

Game times are set for 6:00 p.m. Central Time on Friday and 5:00 p.m. Central Time on Saturday. Both games will available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

With Two Weeks To Go, Who Will Win The 2025 Penrose Cup?

In the eleven completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022, 2023).

Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past eight seasons and a top-four finish in eight of eleven seasons overall.

Here is the average finish for each of the eight original conference members over the first eleven seasons of NCHC play:

North Dakota: 2.5
Denver: 2.9
St. Cloud State: 3.2
Minnesota Duluth: 3.7
Western Michigan: 4.7
Omaha: 4.9
Colorado College: 7.0
Miami: 7.0

And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):

2024: UND, DU, SCSU, CC, UNO, WMU, UMD, MIA
2023: DU, WMU, UNO, SCSU, UMD, UND, CC, MIA
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA

Arizona State has now joined the NCHC, and the Sun Devils appear poised to secure home ice in their first NCHC campaign.

Perhaps more importantly, the Western Michigan Broncos are well on their way to winning the program’s first Penrose Cup.

Here are the current league standings with two weeks to play in the regular season:

1. Western Michigan (47 points in 20 games played)
2. Arizona State (44 in 22)
3. Omaha (38 in 20)
4. North Dakota (37 in 20)
5. Denver (36 in 20)
6. Colorado College (32 in 22)
7. Minnesota Duluth (22 in 20)
8. St. Cloud State (18 in 20)
9. Miami (2 in 20)

Our eyes now turn to the last two weeks of the regular season:

WMU: vs. UND, at MIA
ASU: at UNO, bye
UNO: vs. ASU, at UND
UND: at WMU, vs. UNO
DU: vs. SCSU, vs./at CC
CC: bye, at/vs. DU
UMD: vs. MIA, at SCSU
SCSU: at DU, vs. UMD
MIA: at UMD, vs. WMU

If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.

Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.

It comes as no surprise that Western Michigan – at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.

Here are the ratings:

KRACH #5 Western Michigan: 425.9
KRACH #8 Denver: 335.6
KRACH #15 Arizona State: 236.2
KRACH #18 North Dakota: 177.2
KRACH #24 Omaha: 136.0
KRACH #29 Colorado College: 118.2
KRACH #31 St. Cloud State: 106.1
KRACH #32 Minnesota Duluth: 99.9
KRACH #63 Miami: 15.8

Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with after the final week of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:

1. Western Michigan 57.0
2. Arizona State 47.8
3. Denver 45.0
4. Omaha 42.8
5. North Dakota 42.2
6. Colorado College 33.6
7. Minnesota Duluth 30.1
8. St. Cloud State 22.5
9 Miami 3.0

As you might have already noticed, this model expects Western Michigan to run away with the Penrose Cup, with Arizona State, Denver, and Omaha likely earning the other three home ice spots. UND will host Omaha on the last weekend of the regular season, and that is already shaping up to be a pivotal series in the race for what may well be the last home ice spot.

As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding.

So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. Minnesota Duluth

#17 North Dakota (15-12-2 overall, 8-6-3-1 NCHC) hosts unranked Minnesota Duluth (11-15-2 overall, 6-9-1-2 NCHC) in a pivotal conference series this weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The Fighting Hawks are currently one point ahead of Denver for fourth place in the NCHC, with six points up for grabs in this series. The next-closest team – Colorado College – trails DU by one point and has played two more games than either UND or Denver. North Dakota is nine points ahead of 7th-place Duluth.

This weekend, Denver is at 9th-place Miami, while Colorado College is at 8th-place St. Cloud State.

In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Bulldogs ended up in seventh place (ahead of only Arizona State and Miami). Currently in second place in the NCHC, the Sun Devils have been the biggest surprise in the conference.

Minnesota Duluth hosted Arizona State last weekend, winning 3-2 in overtime on Friday night before skating to a 3-3 tie (shootout loss) in Saturday’s rematch.

The Penrose Cup is expected to be in Tempe, Arizona this weekend in case league-leading Western Michigan sweeps ASU. If that happens, the trophy would be presented to the Broncos at Mullett Arena on Saturday night. If not, it will be on hand at Lawson Ice Arena next weekend for the series between North Dakota and WMU.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (10th) are relatively safe; the rest of the teams in the league may have to go on a run or win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.

Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:

Arizona State: 15th
North Dakota: 19th
Omaha: 30th
Colorado College: 34th
St. Cloud State: 36th
Minnesota Duluth: 40th
Miami: 63rd

The Bulldogs played ten games at the Division I level in the early 1930s but didn’t really get started until after World War II. Its first nineteen seasons after the war were played as an independent before joining the WCHA in 1965. It would take eighteen seasons – and a head coach named Mike Sertich – before UMD would make the NCAA tournament, and Sertich would take them there in three consecutive seasons:

1982-1983: National Quarterfinalist
1983-1984: 2nd Place (National Runner-Up)
1984-1985: 3rd Place (Consolation Champion)

In 1984, Duluth was tantalizingly close to winning its first title. The Bulldogs defeated North Dakota 2-1 in overtime (behind a goal by Bill Watson) to advance to the championship game, where they would face Bowling Green in the longest NCAA final in Division I men’s hockey history. Gino Cavallini scored for the Falcons in the fourth overtime session, ending a game that took over 97 minutes of game action to complete.

And, perhaps, fittingly, UMD would find themselves locked in overtime contests in 1985 as well. The Bulldogs took RPI to three overtimes in the national semis before falling 6-5. Back in those days, there was still a third-place game, and so Duluth faced Boston College (which had also played three overtimes in its semifinal) for no reason at all. Of course, that game also went to overtime, with UMD defeating the Eagles 7-6.

After that three-year splash on the national scene, Mike Sertich would manage just one more tournament appearance (1993) over the final fifteen years of his head coaching career before giving way to Scott Sandelin, who has guided the Bulldogs to the NCAAs eleven times in his 24 completed seasons behind the Bulldog bench. It is worth noting, however, that Duluth has had two consecutive losing seasons (28-40-6) overall and has missed the last two NCAA tourneys.

Even though UMD has been a more frequent participant over the past two decades than at any other point in team history, Duluth and North Dakota have only met twice in the national tournament (1984 and 2021). UND had a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the 2011 title game but fell to the Wolverines in the semifinals 2-0 (with an empty-net goal) despite outshooting Michigan 40-20.

Before the Wolverines were forced to withdraw from the 2021 tournament, UMD and Michigan were set to square off in the national tournament for the first time since that overtime thriller in St. Paul.

North Dakota was down 2-0 to Minnesota Duluth with just 101 seconds remaining in the third period of the 2021 NCAA Midwest Regional final at Scheels Arena in Fargo, North Dakota. The Bulldogs had built their lead with two goals just 80 seconds apart early in the final frame on a pair of fluky plays. A partially blocked shot off the stick of Jackson Cates fluttered past Fighting Hawks’ netminder Adam Scheel, and a broken stick at the blue line sent Cole Koepke in alone on a breakaway. UND scored two extra-attacker goals in the final two minutes of regulation to send the game long into the night. Minnesota Duluth outlasted North Dakota 3-2 in five overtimes to advance to the NCAA Frozen Four. The three goaltenders involved in the contest combined to make 114 saves.

With three national titles in a nine-year stretch, the Bulldogs could certainly be considered the best team of the 2010s; North Dakota’s eight national titles have been spread out across the decades: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, and 2016.

The Wolverines have won nine NCAA titles but only two since 1964, those coming in 1996 and 1998. For that reason, I consider North Dakota (eight titles) and Denver (ten titles) the two best programs in NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey history.

And turning our attention to this season…

So much has changed since these two teams tangled at the DECC in the league opener for both sides.

On November 8th and 9th, UND traveled to Duluth and swept the homestanding Bulldogs 7-3 and 4-1. North Dakota chased highly-touted netminder Adam Gajan on two consecutive nights after scoring five goals on twenty shots in 34:18 of game action in the opener and besting that with two goals on eight shots in 5:38 on night two.

Gajan, a freshman from Poprad, Slovakia, was a second-round pick of the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2023 NHL Draft. He has appeared in just one game since November 23rd, a loss at Omaha during which he stopped just 24 of 29 shots.

Fellow first-year goalie Klayton Knapp – from Sylvania, Ohio – has taken the reigns between the pipes for UMD. Knapp is 6-5-2 this season with a goals-against average of 2.41, a save percentage of .915, and one shutout.

Both teams have been battling injuries and illnesses all season; here is the full report from each side:

Minnesota Duluth

The Bulldogs will feature several faces who were not in the lineup the last time these two teams squared off, most notably freshman forward Max Plante (7-12-19 in fifteen games), senior forward Dominic James (11-12-23), and junior forward Jack Smith (2-5-7).

Freshman forward Trevor Stachowiak and freshman goaltender Adam Gajan are both out of the lineup with lower-body injuries. Junior netminder Zach Sandy (0-2-0, 3.42 GAA, .859 SV%) will serve as the backup to Klayton Knapp.

Senior defenseman Will Francis remains sidelined with a second leukemia relapse; all of us at SiouxSports.com wish Will and his family all our best. No one fights alone.

North Dakota

Senior forward Jackson Kunz (7-3-10 in 27 games) has recovered from illness and was a full practice participant this week.

Freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (9-11-20 in 28 games) suffered an undisclosed injury but has been skating this week; he is considered day-to-day.

Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:38 minutes per game) is suspended for the first game of this series due to a fight at the end of last Saturday’s 3-1 victory at Denver; his scrapping partner (DU’s Zeev Buium) was also suspended for one game. Emery is eligible to return for the series finale but is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-8-17 in 26 games) suffered a lower-body injury two weeks ago against Colorado College and has yet to return to the lineup.

Senior Swiss Army Knife Dane Montgomery (1-5-6 in 22 games) suffered an upper-body injury last Friday night at Denver and is still out.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

On the plus side, senior forward Cameron Berg (9-7-16 in seventeen games) has played the last ten games after missing five consecutive weekends of action.

Junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.

Minnesota Duluth brought in eleven freshmen this season, including two defensemen and two goaltenders. Head coach Scott Sandelin is hoping to turn things around after a dreadful 12-20-5 season (5-11-5-3 in the NCHC) a year ago.

Nearly half of the Bulldogs’ goals this season have come from those eleven rookies, led by forwards Jayson Shaugabay (nine), Max Plante (seven in fifteen games), Zam Plante (five), Callum Arnott (five) and Blake Bechen and defenseman Ty Hanson (four).

Only five Bulldogs have scored more than a half point per game: freshman forward Max Plante (7-12-19 in fifteen games), senior forward Dominic James (11-12-23), freshman forward Jayson Shaugabay (9-13-22), freshman forward Zam Plante (5-11-16), and sophomore defenseman Aaron Pionk (3-19-22).

If Boisvert (9-11-20) is able to suit up this weekend, North Dakota will have seven players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his sixteen points in seventeen games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (3-14-17), freshman forward Mac Swanson (2-14-16), junior forward Dylan James (11-8-19), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (3-19-22), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-15-19).

Surprisingly, the Bulldogs outpace UND in two key puck possession statistics:

Minnesota Duluth: 21st in Corsi (52.4%) and 18th in Fenwick (53.1%)
North Dakota: 26th in Corsi (51.1%) and 27th in Fenwick (51.0%)

Corsi measures the share of shot attempts for each team at even strength, while Fenwick measure the share of unblocked shot attempts for each team at even strength.

As always, a key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s 19th-best team on draws (52.0%), while UMD clocks in at 49.0% (39th).

For UND, senior Jake Schmaltz has been making a living on draws, winning 282 of 511 (55.2%). Graduate Carter Wilkie (239 of 430; 55.6%) has been more than capable, while senior Cameron Berg has won 143 of 279 (51.3%) in limited action.

Duluth will counter with a combination of senior Dominic James (293 of 551, 53.2%), freshman Zam Plante (184 of 335, 54.9%), and junior Jack Smith (147 of 327, 45.0%). Plante has a unique style on faceoffs that must be seen to be appreciated.

North Dakota has five drafted skaters among its eight first-year players, including a pair of highly-touted recruits:

Forward Sacha Boisvert: 2024 Round 1 #18 overall to the Chicago Blackhawks

Boisvert last played with the Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL).

Defenseman E.J. Emery: 2024 Round 1 #30 overall to the New York Rangers

Emery spent the last two seasons with the U.S. National Development Team in Ann Arbor.

Other North Dakota freshmen who were drafted by NHL teams over the past three years include:

Defenseman Andrew Strathmann: 2023 Round 4 #98 overall to the Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward Mac Swanson: 2024 Round 7 #207 to the Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward Cade Littler: 2022 Round 7 #219 overall to the Calgary Flames

The three freshman forwards listed above have combined for fourteen goals and 27 assists in 83 games played this season, while Emery and Strathmann have totaled a goal and three assists while playing heavy minutes for the Hawks (Emery 19:38, Strathmann 12:18).

Minnesota Duluth boasts five draft picks among its eleven-member freshman class:

Forward Max Plante: 2024 Round 2 #47 overall to the Detroit Red Wings

Plante spent the last two seasons as E.J. Emery’s teammate with the U.S. National Development Team in Ann Arbor.

Forward Jayson Shaugabay: 2023 Round 4 #115 overall to the Tampa Bay Lightning

Shaugabay, a Warroad native, won the 2023 Minnesota Mr. Hockey award.

Forward Zam Plante: 2022 Round 5 #150 overall to the Pittsburgh Penguins

Zam, who at twenty years of age is the older brother of Max, is finally healthy after dealing with a shoulder injury. Last season, he was a Fargo Force teammate of current UND freshman Mac Swanson.

Defenseman Adam Kleber: 2024 Round 2 #42 overall to the Buffalo Sabres

Kleber is listed at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds.

Goaltender Adam Gajan: 2023 Round 2 #35 overall to the Chicago Blackhawks

Gajan competed in the 2023 and 2024 World Junior U-20 Championships for his native Slovakia and has been the UMD goaltender of record for all but one game this season (3-3-0, 3.19 GAA, .899 SV%).

Overall, Duluth’s recruiting class was ranked first in the nation by College Hockey News, while North Dakota’s crop of freshmen came in fourth. The two classes sandwiched in between belong to Boston College and Boston University. Incidentally, Western Michigan came in fifth, Denver was slotted in tenth, and Colorado College was picked eleventh.

This is a pivotal series for North Dakota, with both league points and Pairwise positioning at play. UND (currently 19th in the Pairwise) has three weekends of league action remaining in the regular season, with its most difficult remaining matchup away from Ralph Engelstad Arena:

vs. Minnesota Duluth (PWR 40)

at Western Michigan (PWR 5)

vs. Omaha (PWR 30)

Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (25th season at UMD, 467-403-102, .533)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 40th
KRACH: 109.2 (31st)

This Season: 11-15-2 overall, 6-9-1-2 NCHC (7th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 12-20-5 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 5-11-5-3 NCHC (7th of 8 teams)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 2.82 goals scored/game – 34th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 3.18 goals allowed/game – 50th of 64 teams

Power Play: 21.8% (22 of 101) – 26th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 74.4% (64 of 86) – 54th of 64 teams

Key players: Senior F Dominic James (11-12-23), Freshman F Jayson Shaugabay (9-13-22), Freshman F Max Plante (7-12-19 in fifteen games), Freshman F Zam Plante (5-11-16), Sophomore D Aaron Pionk (3-19-22), Senior D Owen Gallatin (4-9-13), Freshman G Klayton Knapp (6-5-2, 2.41 GAA, .915 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 221-116-35, .641)

National Rankings: #17/#18
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
KRACH: 157.6 (19th)

This Season: 15-12-2 overall, 8-6-3-1 NCHC (4th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA tournament appearance), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.03 goals scored/game – 25th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.86 goals allowed/game – 33rd of 64 teams

Power Play: 22.9% (19 of 83) – 18th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.0% (76 of 100) – 51st of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (9-11-20), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (3-14-17), Junior F Dylan James (11-8-19), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-14-16), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (4-7-11), Senior F Cameron Berg (9-7-16 in seventeen games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (3-19-22), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-15-19), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (12-8-2, 2.64 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 9, 2024 (Duluth, Minnesota). The Fighting Hawks chased highly-touted freshman netminder Adam Gajan for the second consecutive night, but this time it took less than six minutes. UND won 4-1 and combined to outscore the Bulldogs 11-4 in the two-game road sweep.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 24, 2024. UND gave our daughter Ashley a terrific birthday present, completing the weekend sweep with a 4-2 victory. Sophomore forward Dylan James broke a 2-2 third-period tie with a pair of goals. In Friday’s opener, North Dakota crushed UMD 6-0 behind a goal and four assists from sophomore forward Jackson Blake.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 2021 (Fargo, ND). North Dakota was down 2-0 to Minnesota Duluth with just 101 seconds remaining in the third period of the 2021 NCAA Midwest Regional final at Scheels Arena in Fargo, North Dakota. The Bulldogs had built their lead with two goals just 80 seconds apart early in the final frame on a pair of fluky plays. A partially blocked shot off the stick of Jackson Cates fluttered past Fighting Hawks’ netminder Adam Scheel, and a broken stick at the blue line sent Cole Koepke in alone on a breakaway. UND scored two extra-attacker goals in the final two minutes of regulation to send the game long into the night. Minnesota Duluth outlasted North Dakota 3-2 in five overtimes to advance to the NCAA Frozen Four. The three goaltenders involved in the contest combined to make 114 saves.

The Meeting That Never Was: Both teams advanced to the 2011 NCAA Frozen Four at Xcel Energy Center (St. Paul, Minnesota). UND could not get past Michigan, falling 2-0 despite outshooting the Wolverines 40-20. In the other national semifinal, Minnesota-Duluth defeated Notre Dame 4-3 and rode that momentum to the title game. The Bulldogs took the Wolverines to overtime before senior forward Kyle Schmidt scored the game winner and earned UMD their first national championship. North Dakota won two of the three games against Duluth that season, outscoring Scott Sandelin’s team 11-5.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 159-89-11 (.635), including an 86-39-3 (.684) advantage in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1954, with North Dakota winning the first ten games between the schools by a combined score of 72-16. UMD’s first win over the Fighting Sioux (a 3-2 road victory on December 18th, 1959) did not sit well with the defending national champions. UND defeated Duluth 13-2 the following night.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 9-1-0 (.900) in the last ten games between the teams, including six victories in a row. The combined score of the last ten contests is 39-17 in favor of the Fighting Hawks. Minnesota Duluth’s last win over UND was January 21st, 2023. Only four of the last ten games in this series were played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Both head coaches this weekend are alumni of the University of North Dakota; Brad Berry (1983-86) and Scott Sandelin (1982-86) both played for UND under John “Gino” Gasparini. Due to the pandemic and other scheduling factors, the Bulldogs have only visited Ralph Engelstad Arena twice in the last five years (UND is 3-1 in those games).

The Prediction

I expect a fast, physical weekend of hockey out of this matchup, with plenty of talent on display. An early lead would be beneficial for UND, as they seem to play with much more purpose and poise when they aren’t chasing the game. Of course, goaltending and specialty teams are always a factor, and the Bulldogs are one of the few teams in the country with a worse penalty kill than the Fighting Hawks. I expect a tougher matchup on Friday night, with the home team rolling in the rematch. UND 3-2, 4-2.

Broadcast Information

Both games this weekend will be broadcast on Midco Sports and also available online at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the Fighting Hawks Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app. Puck drop is set for 7:07 p.m. Central Time on Friday and 6:07 p.m. Central on Saturday.

Social Media

Keep up with the action live during all UND hockey games by following @UNDmhockey and @UNDInsider on Twitter. Fans can also read the action via Brad Schlossman’s live chat on the Grand Forks Herald website.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your thoughts, comments, and suggestions.

Down The Home Stretch Update: Who Will Win The 2025 Penrose Cup?

In the eleven completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022, 2023).

Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past eight seasons and a top-four finish in eight of eleven seasons overall.

Here is the average finish for each of the eight original conference members over the first eleven seasons of NCHC play:

North Dakota: 2.5
Denver: 2.9
St. Cloud State: 3.2
Minnesota Duluth: 3.7
Western Michigan: 4.7
Omaha: 4.9
Colorado College: 7.0
Miami: 7.0

And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):

2024: UND, DU, SCSU, CC, UNO, WMU, UMD, MIA
2023: DU, WMU, UNO, SCSU, UMD, UND, CC, MIA
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA

Arizona State has now joined the NCHC, and the Sun Devils appear poised to secure home ice in their first NCHC campaign.

Perhaps more importantly, the Western Michigan Broncos are well on their way to winning the program’s first Penrose Cup.

Here are the current league standings with three weeks to play in the regular season:

1. Western Michigan (45 points in 18 games played)
2. Arizona State (40 in 20)
3. Omaha (38 in 20)
4. North Dakota (31 in 18)
5. Denver (30 in 18)
6. Colorado College (29 in 20)
7. Minnesota Duluth (22 in 18)
8. St. Cloud State (15 in 18)
9. Miami (2 in 18)

Our eyes now turn to the last three weeks of the regular season:

WMU: at ASU, vs. UND, at MIA
ASU: vs. WMU, at UNO, bye
UNO: bye, vs. ASU, at UND
UND: vs. UMD, at WMU, vs. UNO
DU: at MIA, vs. SCSU, vs./at CC
CC: at SCSU, bye, at/vs. DU
UMD: at UND, vs. MIA, at SCSU
SCSU: vs. CC, at DU, vs. UMD
MIA: vs. DU, at UMD, vs. WMU

If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.

Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.

It comes as no surprise that Western Michigan – at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.

Here are the ratings:

KRACH #4 Western Michigan: 499.7
KRACH #9 Denver: 325.6
KRACH #15 Arizona State: 213.1
KRACH #19 North Dakota: 157.7
KRACH #22 Omaha: 139.9
KRACH #29 Colorado College: 120.9
KRACH #31 Minnesota Duluth: 109.3
KRACH #32 St. Cloud State: 105.8
KRACH #63 Miami: 16.2

Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with after the final week of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:

1. Western Michigan 59.6
2. Arizona State 45.4
3. Denver 44.6
4. Omaha 43.2
5. North Dakota 39.2
6. Colorado College 33.8
7. Minnesota Duluth 32.7
8. St. Cloud State 22.2
9 Miami 3.3

As you might have already noticed, this model expects Western Michigan to run away with the Penrose Cup, with Arizona State, Denver, and Omaha likely earning the other three home ice spots. North Dakota has a bit of ground to make up to overtake Omaha, and good results over the next two weekends will also keep them clear of Duluth and Colorado College. UND will host Omaha on the last weekend of the regular season, and that is already shaping up to be a pivotal series in the race for what may well be the last home ice spot.

As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding.

So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at Denver

#17 North Dakota (14-11-2 overall, 7-5-3-1 NCHC) travels to face #6 Denver (20-7-1 overall, 7-5-2-2 NCHC) in a key conference series at Magness Arena this weekend. The Pioneers earned a road sweep at UND back in November.

The Fighting Hawks are currently one point ahead of Denver for fourth place in the NCHC, with six points up for grabs in this series. The next-closest team – Colorado College – trails DU by three points and has played two more games than either UND or Denver.

After a blistering 12-0-0 start to the season, DU has gone just 8-7-1 to find itself squarely in the middle of the league standings. On the plus side, however, the Pioneers went 11-1-0 in non-conference action this season, so an NCAA tournament bid is well within reach for David Carle’s squad. (By comparison, UND went just 5-5-1 and is in a Pairwise predicament.)

In the NCHC preseason poll, Denver was picked to finish in first place, while North Dakota was tabbed for second place.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 547-286-87 (.642) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.

This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).

Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (10th) are relatively safe; the rest of the teams in the league may have to go on a run or win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.

Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:

Arizona State: 13th
North Dakota: 23rd
Omaha: 28th
Colorado College: 33rd
St. Cloud State: 36th
Minnesota Duluth: 40th
Miami: 63rd

Before we dig into this weekend’s matchup, let’s take a quick look back at the past few games between the two teams…

Denver came into Grand Forks back in November of 2024 and handled the homestanding Hawks by final scores of 5-2 and 3-2. The Pios’ Zeev Buium scored a hat trick on Friday night, and DU survived Saturday’s finale by blocking eighteen North Dakota shot attempts.

UND swept the Pios at Ralph Engelstad Arena on January 26th and 27th, 2024. Eight different Fighting Hawks lit the lamp in the two victories (by final scores of 5-2 and 4-2), and North Dakota went 4-for-6 on the power play while holding DU powerless on four man-advantage situations. The final shot counter for the weekend showed 62-43 in favor of the home team.

On December 1st and 2nd, 2023, North Dakota traveled to Denver for a pair of NCHC contests. In Friday’s opener, UND’s Dylan James got the visitors on the board less than two minutes into the action. The Pioneers would storm back with four first-period goals of their own, and it looked like the rout was on. The Fighting Hawks pulled within one in the middle frame, but a late DU goal from Tristan Broz had the Pios up by two with just twenty minutes remaining. The third period was all Green and White, as Jackson Blake, Louis Jamernik V, Riese Gaber, and Cameron Berg all potted goals en route to a 7-5 North Dakota victory.

In Saturday’s finale, UND never trailed in regulation but also never extended a lead past a single goal. DU tied things up at two goals apiece with nine minutes remaining and scored the game-winner during 3-on-3 action to take the extra league point.

Given how things started out on Friday night, grabbing four out of six points in the conference standings was a good result for the Fighting Hawks.

UND looked overmatched against the visiting Pios back in November 2022, as David Carle’s squad managed a 3-2, 6-3 road sweep over a Fighting Hawks team that had taken five of six points at Omaha the week before. Friday’s opener ended up as a one-goal DU victory, but that was only because North Dakota held the Pioneers scoreless on six man-advantage opportunities.

And in the rematch at altitude in February 2023, it was more of the same. Denver scored five goals each night and held the Fighting Hawks to five total goals on the weekend in securing the rare four-game season sweep. In Friday’s opener, UND played well enough to win but were undone by poor goaltending, as Drew DeRidder allowed four goals on the eleven shots he faced before giving way to Jacob Hellsten just five minutes into the second period. The last two goals that DeRidder allowed came just fourteen seconds apart.

In the 2021 NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinals (held at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks), North Dakota needed overtime to outlast a gutsy performance by a Pios squad that had been decimated by COVID-19. DU dressed only nine forwards for the contest but led 1-0 with under 90 seconds remaining. With the goalie pulled, the Fighting Hawks’ Shane Pinto blasted a shot on net that hit Jasper Weatherby on the way in to send the game to overtime. It took over eight minutes of extra time before Gavin Hain sent the home crowd into a frenzy with a blast of his own that advanced the Green and White into the championship game; Denver had just killed Antti Tuomisto’s boarding minor but could not clear the zone. UND outshot the weary Pioneers 20-4 in the third period and overtime.

With the playoff victory, North Dakota moved to 20-5-1 on the season; David Carle’s squad saw its season end at 10-13-1, the first time DU failed to advance to the NCAA tournament since 2007. The 2020-2021 season was the first losing campaign for DU since the 1999-2000 team went 16-23-2. UND won five of the seven meetings between the teams three years ago, outscoring the Pios 22-14. North Dakota allowed ten goals in the first three meetings with a record of 1-2; since their loss in game one at Denver on January 17th, the Fighting Hawks notched four consecutive victories over DU (15 goals for, 4 goals against). That mid-January defeat was definitely a wakeup call for Brady Berry’s squad; from that point until the end of the season, the Green and White went 13-3, outscoring opponents 69-28.

Denver definitely rebounded three seasons ago, going 31-9-1 and defeating Minnesota State 5-1 for the program’s ninth national title. That championship game was tied 1-1 until the 7:33 mark of the third period. The Pios would add two empty-net goals for the misleading final score.

Since Denver ended North Dakota’s season in 2019, UND has gone 11-9-1 against the Pios.

In the NCHC, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota is at the top of the league rivalries, with the two programs combining for nine NCHC regular season titles and averaging a top-three finish in the league standings each year (UND 2.4, DU 2.8).

The teams have played 51 times during the first eleven seasons of the new conference (with seven ties and each side winning 22 games), but the feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that 2005 Final Five contest (a Denver victory), the two teams have met thirteen times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has earned six victories and a tie in the last ten playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012), the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four, 2016’s thrilling Frozen Four semifinal (a 4-2 UND victory) in Tampa, Florida, and the 2017 NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinal in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Denver turned the tables by dispatching North Dakota in the first round of the league playoffs at Magness Arena to end the Fighting Hawks’ 2018-2019 campaign.

(It is impossible to bring up the Paukovitch/Bina incident without also writing that Brad Malone‘s check on Denver’s Jesse Martin during an October 2010 contest at Ralph Engelstad Arena fractured three of Martin’s vertebrae and ended the hockey career of the Atlanta Thrashers’ draft pick.)

The rivalry intensified four seasons ago, with the teams combining for 187 penalty minutes in six regular season games (the NCHC semifinal game featured just four minor penalties). The last contest between the squads in Denver saw a DU goaltender run over with nine minutes remaining, which ignited tempers further. That spilled over to the series in Grand Forks in February, with the Pioneers “winning” the penalty minute battle 54-29. North Dakota won the specialty teams battle, scoring two goals on ten man-advantage opportunities and blanking DU on its ten power play chances.

In Saturday’s series finale, North Dakota led on the scoreboard 5-2 thanks to two goals by Jasper Weatherby and 18 saves from Peter Thome, who started in place of injured netminder Adam Scheel. And how was Scheel injured, you might ask? Denver’s Kohen Olischefski ran Scheel from behind late in Friday’s 3-0 UND victory. Olischefski was given a five-minute major and a game misconduct for goaltender interference and was issued an additional one-game suspension by the league office.

And in the only series played between the teams three years ago, the two sides combined for 78 penalty minutes and ten power play opportunities. UND swept the series 3-1 and 4-1, thanks in no small part to a 1-for-5 effort on the power play and a perfect penalty kill.

Turning our attention to this season…

Just when it appeared that his squad was finally healthy, UND bench boss Brad Berry will be without the services of Jayden Perron (9-8-17 in 26 games played). The sophomore forward was injured last Friday night against Colorado College and remains out this weekend.

Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.

On the plus side, senior forward Cameron Berg (8-7-15 in fifteen games) has played the last eight games after missing five consecutive weekends of action.

A half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and David Carle’s squad boasts an impressive ten players who meet that threshold, including FIVE averaging a point per game or better:

Senior forward Jack Devine: 6-33-39
Junior forward Aidan Thompson: 16-19-35
Senior forward Carter King: 13-15-28
Sophomore forward Sam Harris: 19-9-28
Sophomore defenseman Zeev Buium: 6-26-32

Other important contributors for the Pios include junior forward Samu Salminen (8-11-19), junior forward Rieger Lorenz (5-9-14), freshman forward James Reeder (7-7-14), sophomore defenseman Eric Pohlkamp (7-18-25), and sophomore defenseman Boston Buckberger (5-12-17).

North Dakota will have just seven players in the lineup this weekend at a half-point per game or better.

The aforementioned Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his fifteen points in fifteen games. Other consistent contributors include freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (9-11-20), junior forward Owen McLaughlin (3-13-16), freshman forward Mac Swanson (2-13-15), junior forward Dylan James (10-8-18), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (3-18-21), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-15-19).

Denver far outpaces UND in two key puck possession statistics:

Denver: 3rd in Corsi (56.9%) and 7th in Fenwick (56.2%)
North Dakota: 23rd in both Corsi (52.1%) and Fenwick (52.1%)

Corsi measures the share of shot attempts for each team at even strength, while Fenwick measure the share of unblocked shot attempts for each team at even strength.

As always, a key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s 17th-best team on draws (52.7%), while the Pioneers clock in at 55.0% (3rd).

For UND, senior Jake Schmaltz has been making a living on draws, winning 270 of 478 (56.5%). Graduate Carter Wilkie (220 of 398; 55.3%) has been more than capable, while senior Cameron Berg has won 126 of 243 (51.9%) in limited action.

For Denver, it’s been senior Carter King (344 of 598, 57.5%) taking the majority of draws, with sophomore Kieran Cebrian (242 of 446, 54.3%) and junior Samu Salminen (206 of 355, 58.0%) contributing as well.

North Dakota has five drafted skaters among its eight first-year players, including a pair of highly-touted recruits:

Forward Sacha Boisvert: 2024 Round 1 #18 overall to the Chicago Blackhawks

Boisvert last played with the Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL).

Defenseman E.J. Emery: 2024 Round 1 #30 overall to the New York Rangers

Emery spent the last two seasons with the U.S. National Development Team in Ann Arbor.

Other North Dakota freshmen who were drafted by NHL teams over the past three years include:

Defenseman Andrew Strathmann: 2023 Round 4 #98 overall to the Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward Mac Swanson: 2024 Round 7 #207 to the Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward Cade Littler: 2022 Round 7 #219 overall to the Calgary Flames

The three freshman forwards listed above have combined for fourteen goals and 26 assists in 78 games played this season, while Emery and Strathmann have totaled a goal and three assists while playing heavy minutes for the Hawks (Emery 19:34, Strathmann 12:31).

According to College Hockey News, North Dakota’s freshman class ranks #4 in the country. Denver clocks in at #10, with four drafted players among five first-year skaters:

Forward Jake Fisher: 2024 Round 4 #121 overall to the Colorado Avalanche

Fisher, who spent the last two seasons with the Fargo Force (USHL), was a teammate of UND freshman forward Mac Swanson.

Forward Hagen Burrows: 2024 Round 4 #128 overall to the Tampa Bay Lightning

Burrows, a Mr. Hockey Award winner (19-40-59 in his final season at Minnetonka), spent last season with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

Forward James Reeder: 2024 Round 7 #198 overall to the Los Angeles Kings

Last season, Reeder put up an eye-popping stat line of 20-40-60 in 53 games with the Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL).

Defenseman Tory Pitner: 2024 Round 6 #185 overall to the Colorado Avalanche

Pitner spent the past two seasons with the Youngstown Phantoms (USHL), winning a Clark Cup title in 2023. The Avs draft pick turned up the offense last season, scoring 24 points (eight goals) in fifty games.

This is a pivotal series for North Dakota, with both league points and Pairwise positioning at play. UND has four weekends of league action remaining in the regular season, with the much more difficult matchups away from Ralph Engelstad Arena:

at Denver (PWR 10)

vs. Minnesota Duluth (PWR 40)

at Western Michigan (PWR 5)

vs. Omaha (PWR 28)

UND is not scheduled to face league foes Arizona State (PWR 13), Colorado College (PWR 33), St. Cloud State (PWR 36), or Miami (PWR 63) again this season.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: David Carle (7th season at DU, 168-69-17, .695)

National Rankings: #6/#6
Pairwise Ranking: 10th
KRACH: 353.6 (8th)

This Season: 20-7-1 overall, 7-5-2-2 NCHC (5th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (National Champions), 12-7-4-1 NCHC (2nd)

2024-2025 Team Statistics:

Team Offense: 4.07 goals scored/game – 1st of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.21 goals allowed/game – 7th of 64 teams

Power Play: 32.0% (31 of 97) – 1st of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (65 of 79) – 20th of 64 teams

Key players: Senior F Jack Devine (6-33-39), Junior F Aiden Thompson (16-19-35), Senior F Carter King (13-15-28), Sophomore F Sam Harris (19-9-28), Junior F Samu Salminen (8-11-19), Sophomore D Zeev Buium (6-26-32), Sophomore D Eric Pohlkamp (7-18-25), Sophomore D Boston Buckberger (5-12-17), Senior G Matt Davis (19-6-1, 2.20 GAA, .918 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 220-115-35, .642)

National Rankings: #17/#17
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
KRACH: 147.4 (22nd)

This Season: 14-11-2 overall, 7-5-3-1 NCHC (4th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA tournament appearance), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game – 23rd of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.89 goals allowed/game – 35th of 64 teams

Power Play: 23.1% (18 of 78) – 17th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 75.3% (70 of 93) – 54th of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (9-11-20), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (3-13-16), Junior F Dylan James (10-8-18), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-13-15), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (4-7-11), Senior F Cameron Berg (8-7-15 in fifteen games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (3-18-21), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-15-19), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (11-7-2, 2.70 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 16, 2024 (Grand Forks, ND). DU hung on for a 3-2 victory and a series sweep by blocking eighteen North Dakota shot attempts. One night earlier, the Pios’ Zeev Buium scored a hat trick in a 5-2 Denver win.

Last Meeting in Denver: December 2, 2023. UND never trailed in regulation but also never extended a lead past a single goal. DU tied things up at two goals apiece with nine minutes remaining and scored the game-winner during 3-on-3 action to take the extra league point. One night earlier, UND’s Dylan James got the visitors on the board less than two minutes into the action. The Pioneers would storm back with four first-period goals of their own, and it looked like the rout was on. The Fighting Hawks pulled within one in the middle frame, but a late DU goal from Tristan Broz had the Pios up by two with just twenty minutes remaining. The third period was all Green and White, as Jackson Blake, Louis Jamernik V, Riese Gaber, and Cameron Berg all potted goals en route to a 7-5 North Dakota victory.

A Recent Memory: April 7, 2016 (Tampa, Florida). In the semifinals of the NCAA Frozen Four, the two league rivals squared off in a tightly-contested matchup. Senior forward Drake Caggiula scored twice early in the middle frame to stake UND to a 2-0 lead, but the Pioneers battled back with a pair of third-period goals. The CBS line came through when it mattered most, with Nick Schmaltz scoring the game winner off of a faceoff win with 57 seconds remaining in the hockey game. North Dakota blocked 27 Denver shot attempts and goaltender Cam Johnson made 21 saves for the Fighting Hawks, who won the program’s eighth national title on the same sheet of ice two nights later.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. But the game that stands out in recent memory as “the one that got away” was DU’s 1-0 victory over the Fighting Sioux in the 2004 NCAA West Regional final (Colorado Springs, CO). That North Dakota team went 30-8-4 on the season (Dean Blais’ last behind the UND bench) and featured one of the deepest rosters in the past twenty years: Brandon Bochenski, Zach Parise, Brady Murray, Colby Genoway, Drew Stafford and David Lundbohm up front; Nick Fuher, Matt Jones, Matt Greene, and Ryan Hale on defense; and a couple of goaltending stalwarts in Jordan Parise and Jake Brandt.

Last Ten Games: DU has won seven of the last ten games between the teams, with a 39-32 edge in goals scored over that stretch. Only four of the past ten games in the series were played in Denver.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 159-137-16 (.535), although Denver holds a 80-57-5 (.581) advantage in games played at altitude. The teams first met in 1950, with North Dakota prevailing 18-3 in Denver. The 312 games played between the schools is the most among all of UND’s opponents.

Game News and Notes

Since Denver ended North Dakota’s season in 2019, UND has gone 13-9-1 against the Pios. Twelve of Denver head coach David Carle’s 69 head coaching losses have come against UND. Last season, the Fighting Hawks won the Penrose Cup as NCHC regular season champions for the sixth time in the eleven-year history of the league; the Pioneers have captured the Penrose only three times (2016-2017 and back-to-back in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023). Three Pios players hail from the state of Colorado, while five Fighting Hawks are from North Dakota. Since seven of Michigan’s nine titles were earned by 1964, I consider Denver (ten titles) and UND (eight titles) to be the top two men’s college hockey programs of all time.

The Prediction

Denver appears to have every advantage in this series, but stranger things have happened. I expect the Pios to blitz North Dakota in the opener, with a much closer rematch on Saturday night. DU’s defensemen are active and offensive-minded, so the recipe for success is to make them work in their own end by getting pucks in and forcing them to defend and work hard to break out pucks. As always. goaltending and special teams will be huge. Fans of the Green and White should be hoping for a split, and that’s what I’ve got here. DU 5-2, UND 4-3.

Broadcast Information

Friday’s opener will be broadcast exclusively on CBS Sports Network, with Saturday’s rematch available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app. Puck drop is set for 8:06 p.m. Central Time on Friday and 7:00 p.m. Central Time on Saturday.

Social Media

Keep up with the action live during all UND hockey games by following @UNDmhockey and @UNDInsider on Twitter. Fans can also read the action via Brad Schlossman’s live chat on the Grand Forks Herald website.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Colorado College

#16 North Dakota (13-10-2, 6-4-3-1 NCHC) hosts #20 Colorado College (13-12-1 overall, 4-7-4-1 NCHC) in a key conference series at Ralph Engelstad Arena this weekend. The two teams have yet to meet during the 2024-2025 season.

UND – currently one point ahead of Denver for fourth place in the NCHC – leads Colorado College by four points in the league standings, with six point up for grabs in this series.

To this point in the season, North Dakota has played fourteen conference games, while CC has already played sixteen.

Earlier this week, I detailed the most likely order of finish in the NCHC standings, and due to its remaining schedule (and particularly road series at Denver and at Western Michigan), UND is in danger of falling out of a home-ice spot. Good results for the Fighting Hawks this weekend (read: better than a split) would go a long way toward solidifying a home series in the first round of the league playoffs.

Last season, Colorado College secured home ice for the first round of the conference playoffs for the first time in league history. In the NCHC, Colorado College has finished 7th, 8th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and 4th for the worst average finish (7.0) among all eight league teams. North Dakota leads the conference with an average finish of 2.5 (2nd, 1st, 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 1st).

Remarkably, CC suffered SEVEN losses in January 2025 (2-7-0) after winning their first eight games of the season and finishing the first half at 10-5-1. Colorado College currently sits at 34th in the Pairwise, while UND is 22nd.

Before we dig into this weekend’s matchup between the Hawks and Tigers, let’s take a quick look back at the past few games between the two teams…

Last season, UND won the program’s fifth Penrose Cup by earning points in every league game up until they went to Colorado Springs to face the Tigers on February 16th and 17th, 2024. CC embarrassed the Green and White with a weekend sweep (7-1, 6-2).

Back on December 8th and 9th, 2023, unranked Colorado College shocked the college hockey world by not only taking then-#1 North Dakota to overtime in back-to-back games but also finishing the job each night during the five-minute 3-on-3 session.

On Friday night, UND outshot the Tigers 34-23 but were undone by sloppy specialty teams play. The Fighting Hawks went 0-for-1 on the power play and gave up a late second-period power play goal that tied the game at two goals apiece. North Dakota led 2-0 midway through the middle frame but could not extend or hold that lead.

Saturday night was a more even affair, with the teams trading chances and putting an identical 24 shots on goal apiece. CC shined in the faceoff circle, however, winning 42 of 64 draws (65.6%).

Two seasons ago, the teams only played two games, and, in a strange February series in the Springs, North Dakota earned a 2-1 overtime victory on Friday before the two teams skated to a 0-0 tie in the rematch, just the third scoreless game in UND hockey history.

North Dakota went 6-0 against CC three seasons ago, outscoring the Tigers 20-7. The two first-round playoff games in Grand Forks were tight affairs, with UND advancing to St. Paul by virtue of a pair of 2-1 victories. In that series, all six goals were scored in the second period.

When the teams squared off at brand-new Robson Arena for a December 2021 series in Colorado Springs, the Fighting Hawks secured the road sweep with 5-2 and 4-1 victories. Those games dropped the Tigers to 3-10-3 on the season.

UND held the advantage in all phases, outshooting the Tigers 62-54 and winning 72 of 119 faceoffs (60.5%). North Dakota scored three power play goals on nine attempts and held Colorado College to just a single power play goal in ten man-advantage opportunities.

After that weekend, the Tigers went 4-4-0 against Arizona State, Miami, Denver, and Omaha to close out January, much more respectable results for first-year head coach Kris Mayotte. Mayotte replaced Mike Haviland, who went just 74-177-28 (.315) in his seven seasons behind the Tiger bench, with no regular season or postseason titles and zero NCAA tournament appearances. Haviland had something brewing from 2017-2019, with his teams going 32-37-9 (.468). Things fell off over his last two seasons, however (15-37-5, .307), and it was time for a change.

February and March of 2022 were not kind to Mayotte’s squad, however, as the Tigers won just twice in their last twelve games. Both of those victories came in overtime against Miami (4-3, 3-2). In the other eight, CC was outscored 30-11.

Two of those losses came on February 11th and 12th at UND. Colorado College put up a good showing in Friday night’s 3-2 defeat, nearly overcoming a 3-0 first-period deficit and outshooting North Dakota 26-21 for the game. The Fighting Hawks turned the tables in Saturday’s 4-0 triumph, sweeping the regular season series between the two teams by a combined score of 16-5.

Prior to the last series in Grand Forks, North Dakota had only trailed for a total of eleven minutes and fifty seconds over the previous eight games.

Colorado College also traveled to Grand Forks to face UND in the first round of the playoffs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. As I’ve written about before, it is difficult to end a team’s season, and tight Saturday night elimination games are to be expected, even after relatively comfortable Friday night victories. In fact, UND’s 2016 sweep (7-1, 5-1) is one of only two playoff series in recent memory that did not feature at least one close contest.

Here are the results from the past four first-round playoff series between North Dakota and Colorado College:

2014: UND 4-2, CC 3-2 (OT), UND 4-3
2015: UND 5-1, UND 3-2
2016: UND 7-1, UND 5-1
2022: UND 2-1, UND 2-1

CC was also scheduled to face the Fighting Hawks in 2020 before the college hockey season was canceled due to COVID-19. And two seasons ago, the Tigers dressed just eleven forwards, five defensemen, and one goalie for their opening-round game against St. Cloud State at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Despite losing a blueliner to a major penalty in the second period, Colorado College took SCSU to the wire, surrendering the game-winning goal with less than four minutes remaining in the contest.

UND bench boss Brad Berry has a healthier lineup than he’s had virtually all season. Senior forward Cameron Berg (8-5-13 in rhiteen games) has played the last six games after missing five consecutive weekends of action. Berg’s return leaves just senior forward/defenseman Dane Montgomery (day-to-day), senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season), and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) on the sidelines.

A half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Kris Mayotte’s squad has just four players who meet that threshold: junior forward Noah Laba (7-14-21), freshman forward Owen Beckner (5-13-18), graduate defenseman Ty Gallagher (5-14-19), and sophomore defenseman Max Burkholder (6-13-19).
A pair of junior forwards have regressed somewhat for the Tigers:

Ryan Beck posted a strong sophomore campaign (3-17-20 in 34 games); this year, Beck has zero goals and six assists in 23 games played.

Glem Veremyev scored 28 points (15 goals) in 37 games a year ago; as a junior, his scoring pace has slowed considerably (7-4-11 in 26 games).

North Dakota boasts impressive scoring depth, with nine players at a half-point per game or better. The aforementioned Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his thirteen points in thirteen games. Other consistent contributors include freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (9-10-19), graduate forward Louis Jamernik V (4-5-9 in seventeen games), junior forward Owen McLaughlin (3-13-16), sophomore forward Jayden Perron (8-8-16), freshman forward Mac Swanson (2-12-14), junior forward Dylan James (8-6-14), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (2-16-18), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-15-19).

The Colorado College and North Dakota team rosters feature a family connection. Grand Forks native Drew Montgomery (6-6-12 in 26 games) is a sophomore forward for the Tigers. His brother Dane Montgomery is a senior forward and assistant captain for UND, and he has proven to be a valuable asset to the roster, playing both forward and defense while scoring a goal and adding five assists in twenty games played.

Offensively, UND far outpaces Colorado College. To this point of the season, North Dakota has scored 78 goals (3.12 goals per game, 21st in the country), while CC has managed just 70 (2.69, 40th).

Despite being nearly even in shots on goal per game (UND 30.0, CC 29.9), Colorado College leads North Dakota by a significant margin in two key puck possession statistics:

North Dakota: 21st in Corsi (52.5%) and 22nd in Fenwick (52.4%)
Colorado College: 10th in Corsi (54.1%); 16th in Fenwick (53.1%)

Corsi measures the share of shot attempts for each team at even strength, while Fenwick measure the share of unblocked shot attempts for each team at even strength.

As always, a key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s 12th-best team on draws (53.7%), while the Tigers clock in at #9 (54.2%).

For UND, senior Jake Schmaltz has been making a living on draws, winning 260 of 454 (57.3%). Graduate Carter Wilkie (208 of 372; 55.9%) has been more than capable, while senior Cameron Berg has won 111 of 205 (54.1%) in limited action.

For the Tigers, three centermen are nearing or have exceeded 200 faceoff wins this season:

Sophomore Klavs Veinbergs: 201 of 339 (59.3%)
Junior Noah Laba: 201 of 359 (56.0%)
Senior Stanley Cooley: 198 of 370 (53.5%)

To this point in the season, North Dakota has had slightly the better of the specialty teams play, although the penalty kill has far too often been their downfall. UND has been a combined minus-3, with 18 power play goals scored (18 of 74, 24.3%, 9th in the country) and 21 power play goals allowed (63 of 84, 75.0%, 56th), with three shorthanded goals scored and three allowed.

The Tigers have posted a minus-7, with just eleven power play goals scored (11 of 79, 13.9%, 56th), fourteen power play goals allowed (72 of 86, 83.7%, 15th), no shorthanded goals scored, and four allowed.

Colorado College junior netminder Kaidan Mbereko has not been quite as effective as he was a year ago for the Tigers, but he is still affecting games and keeping CC competitive:

2023-24: 21-13-3, 2.40 goals-against average, .915 save percentage
2024-25: 11-11-1, 2.43 goals-against average, .909 save percentage

The difference in the won-loss record for Mbereko?

Last season, Colorado College outscored opponents 111-93 in 37 games.
This year, they’ve played teams exactly even (70-70 in 26 games).

Both UND netminders could appear in this weekend’s series. Sophomore Hobie Hedquist played well at St. Cloud State last Saturday night (33 saves on 35 shots), although he allowed two goals on thirteen shots in relief of Ludvig Persson in his only appearance against Colorado College last season.

T.J. Semptimphelter is 3-0-1 in his collegiate career against the Tigers, with a goals-against average of 1.47 and a save percentage of .953.

North Dakota has five drafted skaters among its eight first-year players, including a pair of highly-touted recruits:

Forward Sacha Boisvert: 2024 Round 1 #18 overall to the Chicago Blackhawks

Boisvert last played with the Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL).

Defenseman E.J. Emery: 2024 Round 1 #30 overall to the New York Rangers

Emery spent the last two seasons with the U.S. National Development Team in Ann Arbor.

Other North Dakota freshmen who were drafted by NHL teams over the past three years include:

Defenseman Andrew Strathmann: 2023 Round 4 #98 overall to the Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward Mac Swanson: 2024 Round 7 #207 to the Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward Cade Littler: 2022 Round 7 #219 overall to the Calgary Flames

The three freshman forwards listed above have combined for fourteen goals and 24 assists in 72 games played this season, while Emery and Strathmann have totaled a goal and three assists while playing heavy minutes for the Hawks (Emery 19:43, Strathmann 12:32).

According to College Hockey News, North Dakota’s freshman class ranks #4 in the country.

Colorado College’s drafted newcomers include freshman defenseman Fisher Scott (2024 Round 7 #208 to Detroit), freshman forward Owen Beckner (2023 Round 7 #204 to Ottawa), grad transfer forward Chase McLane (2020 Round 7 #209 to Nashville), and freshman netminder Carsen Musser (2023 Round 6 #166 to Arizona).

This is a pivotal series, with both league points and Pairwise positioning at play. This weekend marks the first of five consecutive league series to end the regular season, alternating away and home along the way, with the much more difficult matchups away from Ralph Engelstad Arena:

vs. Colorado College (PWR 34)

at Denver (PWR 8)

vs. Minnesota Duluth (PWR 38)

at Western Michigan (PWR 5)

vs. Omaha (PWR 35)

UND is not scheduled to face league foes Arizona State (PWR 13), St. Cloud State (PWR 30), or Miami (PWR 63) again this season.

Colorado College Tigers

Head Coach: Kris Mayotte (4th season at CC, 56-71-9, .445)

National Rankings: #20/#22
Pairwise Ranking: 34th
KRACH Rating: 123.5 (26th)

This Season: 13-12-1 overall, 4-7-4-1 NCHC (7th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 21-13-3 (missed NCAA tournament); 9-6-5-4 NCHC (4th of 8 teams)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 2.69 goals scored/game – 40th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.69 goals allowed/game – 28th of 64 teams

Power Play: 13.9% (11 of 79) – 56th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (72 of 86) – 15th of 64 teams

Key players: Junior F Noah Laba (7-14-21), Freshman F Owen Beckner (5-13-18), Sophomore F Drew Montgomery (6-6-12), Sophomore F Zaccharya Wisdom (6-6-12), Senior F Stanley Cooley (4-6-10), Junior F Gleb Veremyev (7-4-11), Sophomore D Max Burkholder (6-13-19), Graduate D Ty Gallagher (5-14-19), Junior G Kaidan Mbereko (11-11-1, 2.43 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 219-114-35, .643)

National Rankings: #16/#16
Pairwise Ranking: 22nd
KRACH: 151.3 (19th)

This Season: 13-10-2 overall, 6-4-3-1 NCHC (t-4th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA tournament appearance), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)

2024-2025 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game – 21st of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.84 goals allowed/game – 32nd of 64 teams

Power Play: 24.3% (18 of 74) – 9th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 75.0% (63 of 84) – 56th of 64 teams

Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (9-10-19), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (3-13-16), Junior F Dylan James (8-6-14), Sophomore F Jayden Perron (8-8-16), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-12-14), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (4-7-11), Senior F Cameron Berg (8-5-13 in thirteen games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (2-16-18), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-15-19), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Sophomore G Hobie Hedquist (3-3-0, 2.41 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 17, 2024 (Colorado Springs, CO). North Dakota’s Cameron Berg put the visitors up 2-1 on a brilliant power play goal with just nine seconds remaining in the first period. It was all Tigers after that, however, as the home team scored once in the middle frame and four more times in the third. At the end of it all, CC led 6-2 on the scoreboard even though UND outshot Colorado College 45-32. One night earlier, it was even worse for the Hawks, as the Tigers went 4-for-5 on the power play in a 7-1 victory.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 9, 2023. For the second night in a row, the teams skated to a 2-2 regulation tie. And for the second night in a row, it was the Tigers scoring in the 3-on-3 session for the extra league point. On Friday night, UND outshot the Tigers 34-23 but were undone by sloppy specialty teams play. The Fighting Hawks went 0-for-1 on the power play and gave up a late second-period power play goal that tied the game at two goals apiece. North Dakota led 2-0 midway through the middle frame but could not extend or hold that lead. Saturday night was a more even affair, with the teams trading chances and putting an identical 24 shots on goal apiece. CC shined in the faceoff circle, however, winning 42 of 64 draws (65.6%).

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 173-88-12 (.656), with a dominant record of 111-24-7 (.806) in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948; North Dakota’s 173 wins over the Tigers are the most against any single opponent in program history.

Last Ten: North Dakota is just 5-4-1 (.550) against the Tigers in the last ten meetings between the teams, with five wins and a tie from February 2022 through February 2023 followed by four consecutive losses (which all came during the 2023-2024 season). Over those ten games, UND scored a total of just 20 goals and allowed 24.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota head coach Brad Berry is 24-8-2 (735.) in his head coaching career against Colorado College. CC has won two national titles (1950, 1957). Since 1957, the Tigers have appeared in the NCAA tournament thirteen times (most recently in 2011) and advanced to three Frozen Fours (1996, 1997, 2005). Head coaches Scott Owens (1999-2014) and Don Lucia (1993-1999) combined to lead CC to six regular-season titles, twelve NCAA tournament appearances, three Frozen Fours, and one national championship game appearance (1996). UND’s 173 wins over CC are the most over a single opponent in the history of the program.

The Prediction

If North Dakota wants to secure home ice for the NCHC playoffs and move up in the Pairwise, they need to collect league points at home. CC netminder Kaidan Mbereko has given up three or more goals in five of his last seven starts and has a record of just 3-11-1 since November 15th, so the opportunities will be there for UND to break at least one game open. I’ve got the Fighting Hawks in the opener, with an overtime tilt on Saturday night. UND 4-2, 3-2 (OT).

Broadcast Information

Game times are set for 7:07 p.m. Central Time on Friday and 6:07 p.m. Central Time on Saturday. Both games will be broadcast live on Midco Sports Network and also available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the Fighting Hawks Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

Social Media

Keep up with the action live during all UND hockey games by following @UNDmhockey and @UNDInsider on Twitter. Fans can also read the action via Brad Schlossman’s live chat on the Grand Forks Herald website.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!