In the eleven completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022, 2023).
Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past eight seasons and a top-four finish in eight of eleven seasons overall.
Here is the average finish for each of the eight original conference members over the first eleven seasons of NCHC play:
North Dakota: 2.5
Denver: 2.9
St. Cloud State: 3.2
Minnesota Duluth: 3.7
Western Michigan: 4.7
Omaha: 4.9
Colorado College: 7.0
Miami: 7.0
And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):
2024: UND, DU, SCSU, CC, UNO, WMU, UMD, MIA
2023: DU, WMU, UNO, SCSU, UMD, UND, CC, MIA
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA
Arizona State has now joined the NCHC, and the Sun Devils appear poised to secure home ice in their first NCHC campaign.
Perhaps more importantly, the Western Michigan Broncos are well on their way to winning the program’s first Penrose Cup.
Here are the current league standings with three weeks to play in the regular season:
1. Western Michigan (45 points in 18 games played)
2. Arizona State (40 in 20)
3. Omaha (38 in 20)
4. North Dakota (31 in 18)
5. Denver (30 in 18)
6. Colorado College (29 in 20)
7. Minnesota Duluth (22 in 18)
8. St. Cloud State (15 in 18)
9. Miami (2 in 18)
Our eyes now turn to the last three weeks of the regular season:
WMU: at ASU, vs. UND, at MIA
ASU: vs. WMU, at UNO, bye
UNO: bye, vs. ASU, at UND
UND: vs. UMD, at WMU, vs. UNO
DU: at MIA, vs. SCSU, vs./at CC
CC: at SCSU, bye, at/vs. DU
UMD: at UND, vs. MIA, at SCSU
SCSU: vs. CC, at DU, vs. UMD
MIA: vs. DU, at UMD, vs. WMU
If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.
Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.
It comes as no surprise that Western Michigan – at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.
Here are the ratings:
KRACH #4 Western Michigan: 499.7
KRACH #9 Denver: 325.6
KRACH #15 Arizona State: 213.1
KRACH #19 North Dakota: 157.7
KRACH #22 Omaha: 139.9
KRACH #29 Colorado College: 120.9
KRACH #31 Minnesota Duluth: 109.3
KRACH #32 St. Cloud State: 105.8
KRACH #63 Miami: 16.2
Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with after the final week of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:
1. Western Michigan 59.6
2. Arizona State 45.4
3. Denver 44.6
4. Omaha 43.2
5. North Dakota 39.2
6. Colorado College 33.8
7. Minnesota Duluth 32.7
8. St. Cloud State 22.2
9 Miami 3.3
As you might have already noticed, this model expects Western Michigan to run away with the Penrose Cup, with Arizona State, Denver, and Omaha likely earning the other three home ice spots. North Dakota has a bit of ground to make up to overtake Omaha, and good results over the next two weekends will also keep them clear of Duluth and Colorado College. UND will host Omaha on the last weekend of the regular season, and that is already shaping up to be a pivotal series in the race for what may well be the last home ice spot.
As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding.
So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!
As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!