The first two of the weekend’s games have been completed with one surprise outcome. Neither outcome shifted many teams’ fortunes except the teams involved.
I added Bemidji State because of their meteoric rise with last night’s win. They won’t make the NCAA tournament at large, so the Beavers’ only hope is to win it all.
CC has removed most of their downside, with an NCAA tournament appearance now seeming more likely than not. One win won’t shift their fortunes much and two earns an autobid, rendering their PWR meaningless. Remember that #16 in the PWR won’t make it at-large, because the Atlantic Hockey autobid will take the final slot. If CC falls short of winning the WCHA, they will join Nebraska-Omaha in watching Northeastern, Cornell, and Colgate closely, hoping none win their conference tournament and steal an NCAA bid from #15 or even #14 in PWR.
Duluth’s loss locked in their “worst case” scenario, which is making the tournament as a 3-seed.
AA’s loss knocked them out of contention for the NCAA tournament.
| Team | PWR | Overall | Lose all remaining | Win all remaining | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
||
| Yale | 1 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 | 1 |
| North Dakota | 2 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 2 | 1 to 2 |
| Boston College | 3 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 |
| Michigan | 4 | 2 to 10 | 3 to 10 | 4 to 10 | 4 to 10 | 2 to 5 | 3 to 5 |
| Miami | 5 | 3 to 10 |
3 to 10 |
5 to 10 | 5 to 10 | 3 to 4 | 3 to 4 |
| Merrimack | 6 | 4 to 10 | 4 to 10 | 6 to 10 | 7 to 10 | 4 to 5 | 4 to 5 |
| Denver | 7 | 4 to 10 | 4 to 9 | 5 to 10 | 5 to 9 | 4 to 6 | 4 to 6 |
| Union | 8 | 5 to 10 |
6 to 9 |
n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Notre Dame | 9 | 4 to 15 | 4 to 14 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 14 | 4 to 8 | 4 to 8 |
| Minnesota-Duluth | 10 | 7 to 11 | 8 to 11 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| New Hampshire | 11 | 4 to 15 | 5 to 14 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 14 | 4 to 10 | 5 to 10 |
| Western Michigan | 12 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 19 | 12 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 10 to 13 | 10 to 13 |
| Nebraska-Omaha | 13 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Colorado College | 14 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 15 |
| Dartmouth | 15 | 10 to 22 | 11 to 21 | 15 to 22 | 16 to 21 | 10 to 15 | 11 to 14 |
| Rensselaer | 16 | 11 to 17 | 12 to 16 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Boston University | 17 | 14 to 18 | 15 to 17 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Maine | 18 | 14 to 20 | 16 to 19 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Alaska Anchorage | 20 | 19 to 23 | 20 to 23 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Bemidji State | 22 | 17 to 28 | 18 to 27 | 22 to 28 | 22 to 27 | 17 to 20 | 18 to 20 |
Note — Michigan appears to have more upside potential if it “loses all remaining” than in the previous table. That’s actually a reflection of the possibility of a tie in the consolation game, which the previous table did not include.