In the twelve completed seasons of the NCHC, only four teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), Denver (2017, 2022, 2023), and Western Michigan (2025).
Minnesota Duluth has been the best league team never to hoist the Penrose, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past nine seasons and a top-four finish in eight of twelve seasons overall.
Here is the average finish for each of the eight original conference members over the first twelve seasons of NCHC play:
North Dakota: 2.8
Denver: 2.9
St. Cloud State: 3.6
Minnesota Duluth: 4.0
Western Michigan: 4.4
Omaha: 4.8
Colorado College: 6.9
Miami: 7.2
And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):
2025: WMU, ASU, DU, UNO, UND, CC, UMD, SCSU, MIA
2024: UND, DU, SCSU, CC, UNO, WMU, UMD, MIA
2023: DU, WMU, UNO, SCSU, UMD, UND, CC, MIA
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA
Arizona State is now in its second season in the NCHC; the Sun Devils secured a 2nd-place finish a year ago but currently find themselves in eighth place, ahead of only Omaha.
It is very apparent that one of North Dakota, Denver, or Western Michigan will hoist the Penrose Cup over the final three weeks of conference action; here are the current league standings (points percentage order):
1. North Dakota (42 points in 18 games played)
2. Denver (40 in 20)
3. Western Michigan (35 in 18)
4. Minnesota Duluth (28 in 20)
5. Miami (24 in 18)
6. St. Cloud State (26 in 20)
7. Colorado College (20 in 18)
8. Arizona State (19 in 18)
9. Omaha (18 in 18)
There are clearly three groups of teams in this year’s standings, the Penrose Cup contenders, the home ice contenders, and the three teams battling to avoid being the last place team in the league (and thus eliminated from postseason play).
Our eyes now turn to the last three weeks of the regular season:
Penrose Cup Contenders:
UND: vs. MIA, vs. SCSU, at WMU
DU: at UNO, OFF, vs. ASU
WMU: vs. ASU, at CC, vs. UND
Home Ice Contenders:
UMD: OFF, at MIA, vs. CC
MIA: at UND, vs. UMD, at UNO
SCSU: vs. CC, at UND, OFF
The Bottom Three:
CC: at SCSU, vs. WMU, at UMD
ASU: at WMU, vs. UNO, at DU
UNO: vs. DU, at ASU, vs. MIA
If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.
Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.
It comes as no surprise that North Dakota – at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.
Here are the ratings:
KRACH #3 North Dakota: 477.2
KRACH #5 Western Michigan: 404.7
KRACH #7 Minnesota Duluth: 283.3
KRACH #10 Denver: 257.3
KRACH #16 St. Cloud State: 178.2
KRACH #17 Miami: 165.7
KRACH #28 Colorado College: 126.1
KRACH #29 Arizona State: 122.6
KRACH #31 Omaha: 105.2
Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with after the final week of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:
1. North Dakota: 54.07
2. Denver: 48.32
3. Western Michigan: 46.92
4. Minnesota Duluth: 35.53
5. Miami: 31.84
6. St. Cloud State: 31.14
7. Colorado College: 25.77
8. Arizona State: 25.57
9. Omaha: 24.84
As you might have already noticed, this model expects North Dakota to run away with the Penrose Cup, with Western Michigan, Denver, and Minnesota Duluth earning the other three home ice spots.
As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding.
So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!