It’s deja vu all over again.
For the second time in three seasons, UND heads down I-29 through South Dakota to Nebraska to face the Mavericks, and, just like in March 2023, the season is on the line for both teams.
On the final weekend of the 2022-2023 regular season, North Dakota swept Omaha (5-4 OT, 2-1). The Fighting Hawks dropped Game One of the playoff series in Omaha by a final score of 2-1 before winning two straight (3-1, 5-2) and advancing to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff in St. Paul, Minnesota.
This time around, #17 North Dakota (19-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC) and #20 Omaha (18-15-1 overall, 13-8-2-1 NCHC) are in the same boat. Both teams must win this weekend’s best-of-three playoff series AND win two games at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff to make the national tournament.
Here are the other three first-round matchups:
8-seed St. Cloud State at 1-seed Western Michigan
7-seed Minnesota Duluth at 2-seed Arizona State
6-seed Colorado College at 3-seed Denver
In the NCHC preseason poll, UND was picked to finish in second place (behind Denver), while the Broncos ended up in sixth place (ahead of Duluth, Arizona State, and Miami). After locking up the top two spots in the league standings, Western Michigan and the Sun Devils have been the two biggest surprises in the conference.
Before this season, only UND, Denver, and St. Cloud State had hoisted the Penrose. In this, the twelfth season of the NCHC, Western Michigan joins that group.
The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past ten seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 532-275-85 (.644) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent thirteen teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in both 2022 and 2024) over that nine-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022, 2024), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won six of the last eight national titles.
This year, it appears as though there will be fewer NCAA tournament berths for NCHC teams. The league’s out-of-conference winning percentage was just .586, the worst since the league’s first season (.533 in 2013-14).
Only Western Michigan (5th in the Pairwise) and Denver (9th) are safe; the rest of the teams in the league will have to win the Frozen Faceoff to make the field of sixteen.
Here are the current Pairwise rankings for the other seven NCHC programs:
Arizona State: 16th
North Dakota: 18th
Omaha: 28th
St. Cloud State: 34th
Colorado College: 37th
Minnesota Duluth: 42nd
Miami: 63rd
It is odd that, prior to last weekend, North Dakota and Omaha had not faced each other this season. Last year, the Mavericks got the best of UND, earning eight of twelve league points in the regular season and besting North Dakota in the semifinals of the Frozen Faceoff.
On January 12th and 13th, 2024, UND took four of six league points in a home series against Omaha, falling 5-4 in overtime on Friday night before rebounding for a 3-1 regulation win in Saturday’s rematch. The disappointing thing about the series opener is that North Dakota led 3-1 after the first period. The Mavericks won the middle frame decisively, however, outscoring the homestanding Hawks 3-1. Both teams scored twice with the man advantage. Omaha scored just 34 seconds into the 3-on-3 overtime session to grab the extra league point.
Saturday’s finale was a bit more of a defensive struggle, with Omaha tying the game at one goal apiece just 49 seconds into the third period. UND’s Dylan James scored the game-winner three minutes later, and former Maverick Cameron Berg iced the game with an empty-net goal in the final thirty seconds. North Dakota outshot Omaha 30-23 on Saturday night and 69-47 on the weekend.
Almost exactly one year ago, UND traveled down I-29 to face the Mavericks on the last weekend of the regular season. The homestanding Mavs were clearly the hungrier team in Friday’s opener, as North Dakota was fresh off a Penrose Cup-clinching performance at home just six days earlier. The Fighting Hawks trailed 3-2 headed into the final twenty minutes of game one, and, despite a 14-4 advantage in shots on goal in the third period, could not find the equalizer.
In the rematch, little-used netminder Seth Eisele made 38 saves for Omaha in a 4-1 victory. Ludvig Perrsson was good but not great for UND (21 saves, three goals allowed).
And on March 22, 2024, Omaha defeated North Dakota 6-3 in the NCHC semifinals at Xcel Energy Center (St. Paul, Minnesota). UND drew within one goal with just 24 seconds remaining in the second period but gave up a critical fourth goal to the Mavericks just 78 seconds into period three. Despite a 14-7 shot advantage in the third period, the Fighting Hawks were outscored 3-1 in the final frame.
Turning our attention to this weekend…
A half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Mike Gabinet’s squad has just seven players who meet that threshold: graduate forward Sam Stange (15-17-32), graduate forward Brady Risk (13-11-24), senior forward Zach Urdahl (12-10-22), graduate forward Harrison Israels (9-13-22), junior forward Cam Mitchell (8-12-20), sophomore forward Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), and junior defenseman Jacob Guevin (6-13-19).
If those names are unfamiliar to North Dakota fans, it’s because Omaha’s top four point-getters are all transfers. Urdahl transferred from Wisconsin two seasons ago, while Stange left last year. Risk and Israels previously suited up for Alaska, appearing at the Ralph last season with the Nanooks (current UND junior defenseman Caleb MacDonald was their former teammate).
North Dakota bench boss Brad Berry will have a few more players to work with while fielding a lineup this weekend:
Junior defenseman Caleb MacDonald, who left last Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, has returned to practice and is expected to play this weekend.
Freshman defenseman E.J. Emery (19:33 per game) played three Saturdays ago after serving a one-game league suspension for fighting; since that time, he has been dealing with a lower-body injury and did not suit up at Western Michigan or vs. Omaha. Emery traveled with the team and is considered day-to-day.
Senior defenseman Bennett Zmolek (out for the season) and junior goaltender Kaleb Johnson (out long-term) remain on the sidelines.
Johnson looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time; the team brought in Aleksi Huson to be the third goaltender on the roster. Huson backstopped Shakopee High School last season, serving as team captain while posting a record of 20-5-1 with a goals-against average of 2.13 and a save percentage of .934.
UND has lost a combined 114 games due to injury this season, with thirteen of 24 skaters missing at least one game.
This weekend, North Dakota will have seven players in the lineup at a half-point per game or better. Cameron Berg leads the way in scoring average with his 21 points in 23 games. Other consistent contributors include junior forward Owen McLaughlin (5-22-27), junior forward Dylan James (14-8-22), freshman forward Sacha Boisvert (16-12-28), sophomore forward Jayden Perron (9-9-18), sophomore defenseman Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), and sophomore defenseman Abram Wiebe (4-19-23).
Here is a quick peek at how North Dakota and Omaha stack up in various categories:
Goals per game: Omaha 2.97 (25th of 64 teams); UND 3.20 (16th)
Goals allowed per game: Omaha 2.74 (23rd); UND 2.94 (31st)
Shooting percentage: Omaha 10.4% (20th); UND 11.1% (10th)
Save percentage: Omaha .923 (8th); UND .895 (45th)
Shots on goal/game: Omaha 28.5 (38th); UND 28.8 (34th)
Shots on goal allowed/game: Omaha 35.4 (63rd); UND 28.1 (23rd)
Power play efficiency: Omaha 21.6% (25th); UND 25.5% (7th)
Penalty kill efficiency: Omaha 76.5% (49th); UND 76.1% (51st)
Faceoff win percentage: Omaha 48.8% (38th); UND 51.7% (19th)
Corsi: Omaha 46.0% (55th); UND 50.3% (30th)
Fenwick: Omaha 45.1% (56th); UND 50.4% (28th)
Omaha Team Profile
Head Coach: Mike Gabinet (8th season at UNO, 135-129-19, .511)
National Rankings: #20/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 28th
KRACH Rating: 139.1 (23rd)
This Season: 18-15-1 overall, 13-8-2-1 NCHC (4th)
Last Season: 23-13-4 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 8-8-8-0 NCHC (5th)
Team Offense: 2.97 goals scored/game – 25th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.74 goals allowed/game – 23rd of 64 teams
Power Play: 21.6% (25 of 116)– 25th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.5% (65 of 85)– 49th of 64 teams
Key Players: Graduate F Sam Stange (15-17-32), Graduate F Brady Risk (13-11-24), Senior F Zach Urdahl (12-10-22), Graduate F Harrison Israels (9-13-22), Junior F Cam Mitchell (8-12-20), Sophomore F Charlie Lurie (4-6-10 in twenty games), Junior D Jacob Guevin (6-13-19), Senior D Dylan Gratton (2-12-14). Junior G Simon Latkoczy (14-14-1, 2.68 GAA, .925 SV%, 1 SO)
North Dakota Team Profile
Head Coach: Brad Berry (10th season at UND, 225-118-35, .642)
National Rankings: #17/#18
Pairwise Ranking: 18th
KRACH: 173.8 (19th)
This Season: 19-14-2 overall, 11-8-4-1 NCHC (5th of 9 teams)
Last Season: 26-12-2 (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 14-4-1-5 NCHC (1st)
2024-2025 Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game – 16th of 64 teams
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game – 31st of 64 teams
Power Play: 25.5% (26 of 102) – 7th of 64 teams
Penalty Kill: 76.1% (89 of 117) – 51st of 64 teams
Key Players: Freshman F Sacha Boisvert (16-12-28), Junior F Owen McLaughlin (5-22-27), Junior F Dylan James (14-8-22), Freshman F Mac Swanson (2-15-17), Sophomore F Jayden Perron (9-9-18 in 28 games), Senior F Jake Schmaltz (6-9-15), Senior F Cameron Berg (12-9-21 in 23 games), Sophomore D Jake Livanavage (4-24-28), Sophomore D Abram Wiebe (4-19-23), Junior D Caleb MacDonald (3-4-7), Graduate G T.J. Semptimphelter (16-10-2, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO, 1 post-game scrap)
By The Numbers
Last Meeting: March 8, 2025 (Grand Forks, ND). It was an odd game to close the home portion of the North Dakota hockey season, as two late goals (19:25 of the first period and 19:40 of the second period) were too much for UND to overcome. As is so often the case in this rivalry, the Fighting Hawks outshot the visitors 37-26 and led in expected goals (3.1-2.8) but fell behind 4-0 and could not recover. Wisconsin transfer Sam Stange had two goals, two assists, and two penalty minutes for Omaha.
Last Meeting in Omaha: March 9, 2024. UND outshot the homestanding Mavs 39-25 but could manage just a single 5-on-3 goal in falling by a final score of 4-1. Omaha netminder Seth Eisele made 38 of 39 saves in the victory. It was much the same story one night earlier, as a 34-23 advantage in shots on goal resulted in a 3-2 loss for the Green and White. Brad Berry’s squad never led in either game, a very telling statistic when these two teams tangle.
Most Memorable Meeting: The game that UND fans will long remember is the outdoor game played at TD Ameritrade Park (Omaha, Nebraska) on February 9th, 2013. One day after winning a tight 2-1 contest indoors, North Dakota throttled UNO 5-2 on a sunny, melty afternoon. Mavericks netminder John Faulkner was pulled after allowing three goals on five shots in just ten minutes of game action. In my opinion, this hockey weekend solidified the notion that for UND hockey, it’s always a home game.
Last Ten: Omaha has a record of 6-4-0 in the last ten meetings between the teams, including a 6-3 semifinal victory at the 2024 NCHC Frozen Faceoff in St. Paul. Five of the other nine games over this stretch were played in Omaha, with the Fighting Hawks taking two of three games in March 2023 and the Mavericks sweeping a regular-season series in March 2024.
All-Time: UND leads the all-time series 37-23-2 (.613), including a record of 18-11-1 (.617) in Omaha. The teams first met on November 19, 2010.
Game News and Notes
Ten seasons ago, both North Dakota and Omaha advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four but neither team made the championship game. UND fell to Boston University 5-3, while the Mavericks were upended 4-1 by eventual national champion Providence. In team history, the Mavericks have made the national tournament five times (2006, 2011, 2015, 2021, 2024), with a Frozen Four appearance under head coach Dean Blais in 2015. North Dakota’s Brad Berry is 28-17-1 (.620) in his head coaching career against Omaha. In 30 of the past 35 contests in this series, the winning team is the one which scores the first goal. This season, North Dakota is 15-2-0 (.882) when scoring first; Omaha, 14-5-1 (.725). UND has outscored opponents 32-26 in the first period of play this season.
The Prediction
For only the fourth time in the last 25 years, North Dakota is heading on the road for the first round of the league playoffs. Despite last Saturday’s lopsided score, I don’t think that Omaha is as deep or as talented as UND. This will take three games, but the Fighting Hawks will get the job done and advance to St. Paul for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. UND 4-3, Omaha 4-2, UND 3-2.
Bonus Predictions
Western Michigan over St. Cloud State in two games
Arizona State over Minnesota Duluth in three games
Denver over Colorado College in three games
Broadcast Information
Game times are set for 7:00 p.m. Central Time on Friday and Saturday and 6:00 p.m. Central Time on Sunday (if necessary). The entire series will be broadcast on Midco Sports Network and also available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.
As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on X-Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!