This post has been updated to reflect that each team has four conference games remaining in the 2022-2023 regular season.
In the nine completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022).
Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past six seasons.
Here is the average finish for each of the eight conference opponents:
North Dakota: 2.33
St. Cloud State: 3.11
Denver: 3.22
Minnesota Duluth: 3.22
Western Michigan: 4.89
Omaha: 5.11
Miami: 6.78
Colorado College: 7.33
And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):
2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA
This season, Denver appears to be in the driver’s seat for their third regular season league title, with a five-point lead over Western Michigan, a six-point lead over Omaha, and an eight-point lead over St. Cloud State.
Here are the current standings with two weeks to play in the regular season (all teams have four games remaining):
1. Denver (44 points)
2. Western Michigan (39)
3. Omaha (38)
4. St. Cloud State (36)
5. Minnesota Duluth (26)
6. North Dakota (24)
7. Colorado College (23)
8. Miami (10)
Our eyes turn next to the remaining schedule for each team:
1. Denver: at WMU, vs./at CC
2. Western Michigan: vs. DU, at Miami
3. Omaha: vs. SCSU, at UND
4. St. Cloud State: at Omaha, vs. UMD
5. Minnesota Duluth: vs. Miami, at SCSU
6. North Dakota: at CC, vs. Omaha
7. Colorado College: vs. UND, at/vs. DU
8. Miami: at UMD, vs. WMU
If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.
Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.
It comes as no surprise that Denver- at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.
Here are the ratings:
KRACH #4 Denver: 360.9
KRACH #6 St. Cloud State: 323.3
KRACH #7 Western Michigan: 310.9
KRACH #15 Omaha: 193.6
KRACH #16 North Dakota: 170.8
KRACH #19 Minnesota Duluth: 154.1
KRACH #36 Colorado College: 83.1
KRACH #40 Miami: 71.0
Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with over the final two weeks of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:
1. Denver: 52.10 league points
2. Western Michigan: 46.65
3. Omaha: 44.18
4. St. Cloud State: 43.07
5. Minnesota Duluth: 32.04
6. North Dakota: 30.85
7. Colorado College: 26.09
8. Miami: 13.02
As you might have already noticed, there is a widening gap between the top four teams and the bottom four teams, with home ice nearly out of reach for Minnesota Duluth and North Dakota.
With better-than-expected results last weekend, Western Michigan, Omaha, Duluth, and North Dakota saw their projections increase, while Denver, St. Cloud State, Colorado College, and Miami fell short of expectations and dropped.
If these results play out, two first-round playoff matchups – St. Cloud State vs. Duluth and Omaha vs. North Dakota – would end up being rematches of the final week of the regular season.
As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding in the most competitive league in the country. The other unknowns, of course, are which teams stay healthy and get better goaltending in games that will certainly tighten up as the playoffs approach.
I will run these numbers one more time next week, before the final regular season games are played.
So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!
As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!