February 2023 – Sioux Sports Talk

Weekend Preview: UND at Colorado College

North Dakota (13-13-5, 6-10-2-2 NCHC) travels to Colorado Springs to face the Colorado College Tigers (10-18-2, 6-11-2-1 NCHC) in a battle between two teams likely to be on the road for the first round of the league playoffs in two weeks’ time. It is worth noting that, despite being unranked, UND currently sits in 21st place in the all-important Pairwise Rankings, mostly due to the fact that ten of its thirteen losses are to teams in the top six in the country (Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver four times, St. Cloud State twice, and Western Michigan twice). Colorado College is 39th in the Pairwise coming into this weekend.

According to KRACH, North Dakota has faced the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule to this point of the season, while the Tigers’ schedule weighs in as the fifteenth-most difficult.

In addition to the ten losses mentioned above, the three defeats that are looming large in UND’s current Pairwise predicament are:

Arizona State 3, North Dakota 2 (October 29th)

Miami 4, North Dakota 3 (November 19th)

Minnesota Duluth 2, North Dakota 1 (January 21st)

All three of those games were tied in the third period.

With ten conference losses against just six victories, the Fighting Hawks are currently in sixth place in the league standings (one point ahead of 7th place CC) with just four NCHC games remaining. As I wrote earlier this week, it is nearly a mathematical certainty that UND will go on the road for the first round of the NCHC playoffs, with its most likely opponents Omaha, Western Michigan, or St. Cloud State.

This will be the first and only scheduled meeting between the two teams this season; North Dakota went 6-0 against CC last year, outscoring the Tigers 20-7. The two first-round playoff games in Grand Forks were tight affairs, with UND advancing to St. Paul by virtue of a pair of 2-1 victories. In that series, all six goals were scored in the second period.

When the teams squared off at brand-new Robson Arena for a December 2021 series in Colorado Springs, the Fighting Hawks secured the road sweep with 5-2 and 4-1 victories. Those games dropped the Tigers to 3-10-3 on the season.

UND held the advantage in all phases, outshooting the Tigers 62-54 and winning 72 of 119 faceoffs (60.5%). North Dakota scored three power play goals on nine attempts and held Colorado College to just a single power play goal in ten man-advantage opportunities.

After that weekend, the Tigers went 4-4-0 against Arizona State, Miami, Denver, and Omaha to close out January, much more respectable results for first-year head coach Kris Mayotte. Mayotte replaced Mike Haviland, who went just 74-177-28 (.315) in his seven seasons behind the Tiger bench, with no regular season or postseason titles and zero NCAA tournament appearances. Haviland had something brewing from 2017-2019, with his teams going 32-37-9 (.468). Things fell off over his lasy two seasons, however (15-37-5, .307), and it was time for a change.

February and March of 2022 were not kind to Mayotte’s squad, however, as the Tigers won just twice in their last twelve games. Both of those victories came in overtime against Miami (4-3, 3-2). In the other eight, CC was outscored 30-11.

Two of those losses came on February 11th and 12th at UND. Colorado College put up a good showing in Friday night’s 3-2 defeat, nearly overcoming a 3-0 first-period deficit and outshooting North Dakota 26-21 for the game. The Fighting Hawks turned the tables in Saturday’s 4-0 triumph, sweeping the regular season series between the two teams by a combined score of 16-5.

In the six games against CC last season, North Dakota only trailed for a total of eleven minutes and fifty seconds.

Colorado College also traveled to Grand Forks to face UND in the first round of the playoffs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. As I’ve written about before, it is difficult to end a team’s season, and tight Saturday night elimination games are to be expected, even after relatively comfortable Friday night victories. In fact, UND’s 2016 sweep (7-1, 5-1) is one of only two playoff series in recent memory that did not feature at least one close contest.

Here are the results from the past four first-round playoff series between North Dakota and Colorado College:

2014: UND 4-2, CC 3-2 (OT), UND 4-3
2015: UND 5-1, UND 3-2
2016: UND 7-1, UND 5-1
2022: UND 2-1, UND 2-1

CC was also scheduled to face the Fighting Hawks in 2020 before the college hockey season was canceled due to COVID-19. And two seasons ago, the Tigers dressed just eleven forwards, five defensemen, and one goalie for their opening-round game against St. Cloud State at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Despite losing a blueliner to a major penalty in the second period, Colorado College took SCSU to the wire, surrendering the game-winning goal with less than four minutes remaining in the contest.

Nine full seasons have come and gone since the college hockey landscape changed forever. With Minnesota and Wisconsin departing the Western Collegiate Hockey Association for the Big Ten after the 2012-13 season, several other conference schools and two members of the Central Collegiate Hockey Association (Miami and Western Michigan) created the National Collegiate Hockey Conference and left Alaska Anchorage, Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, and Minnesota State behind in a watered-down WCHA. And now, the WCHA is no more, and the CCHA reformed beginning with the 2021-2022 campaign. The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past eight seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 434-223-72 (.645) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent twelve teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in 2022) over that seven-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won five of the last six national titles.

In the NCHC, Colorado College has finished 7th, 8th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th, and 7th for the worst average finish (7.33) among all eight league teams. North Dakota leads the conference with an average finish of 2.33 (2nd, 1st, 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 2nd).

Turning our attention to this weekend’s action, a half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Kris Mayotte’s squad has just three active players who meet that threshold: junior forward Hunter McKown (17-5-22), freshman forward Noah Laba (10-8-18), and sophomore forward Stanley Cooley (6-11-17).

Freshman forward Gleb Veremyev posted a line of 2-5-7 in 14 games before suffering a season-ending injury.

McKown, who played on the U.S. National Under-17 and Under-18 Teams before coming to Colorado Springs, has already eclipsed his point total from all of last season (13-8-21). UND did an excellent job defending McKown last season, allowing the sophomore just a single secondary assist in six North Dakota victories. McKown, who has already notched 32 NCAA goals, scored a total of three in 43 games with the USNTDP.

By that same measure, North Dakota boasts eight skaters at a half point per game or better: junior forward Riese Gaber (19-12-31), freshman forward Jackson Blake (13-23-36), graduate forward Mark Senden (7-9-16), senior forward Judd Caulfield (9-7-16), senior forward Gavin Hain (9-5-14), graduate defensemen Chris Jandric (3-27-30), senior defenseman Ethan Frisch (4-11-15), and junior defenseman Tyler Kleven (6-9-15).

UND is fourth in the nation in shooting percentage at an astounding 12.0% (107 goals on 895 shots). By comparison, Colorado College is 52nd in the country at 8.1% (68 goals on 841 shots). The two teams are nearly identical in shots on goal per game (UND 28.9, CC 28.0), although North Dakota is vastly superior in shots on goal allowed per game (UND 24.9, CC 30.6). This disparity also leads to a puck possession advantage for the Fighting Hawks (UND is 17th in Corsi and 21st in Fenwick; CC is 40th and 43rd, respectively).

One key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s 19th-best team on draws (52.4%), while Colorado College clocks in at 49.8% (30th).

UND had been one of the country’s best faceoff teams before Jake Schmaltz suffered an upper-body injury against Miami. In the three games without Schmaltz in the lineup, North Dakota won just 45.4 percent of faceoffs (95 of 209). The sophomore from McFarland, Wisconsin, who has won 302 of his 533 draws this season (56.7%), came back last weekend against SCSU and went 30-19 in the dot (61.2%).

Among other UND centermen, junior Louis Jamernik V has been solid (298 of 568, 52.5%), while freshman Owen McLaughlin has shown improvement (170 of 336, 50.6%). Freshman Ben Strinden has chipped in with 53 wins in 111 opportunities (47.7%).

CC will counter with freshman Noah Laba (232 of 420, 55.2%), junior Logan Will (155 of 305, 50.8%), sophomore Stanley Cooley (159 of 348, 45.7%), and senior Noah Prokop (191 of 397, 48.1%).

To this point in the season, North Dakota has had far the better of the specialty teams play. UND has been a combined plus-18, with 41 power play goals scored (41 of 133, 30.8%, best in the country) and only 23 power play goals allowed (95 of 118, 80.5%, 30th), with two shorthanded goals scored and two allowed.

Colorado College has posted a plus-5, with 26 power play goals scored (26 of 120, 21.7%, 29th), 19 power play goals allowed (79 of 98, 80.6%, 29th), two shorthanded goals scored, and four allowed.

North Dakota has earned far more man advantage opportunities than shorthanded situations this season (133-118), while Colorado College has fared even better (120-98).

North Dakota is 10th in the country in scoring offense (3.45 goals scored/game) but just 41st in the country in scoring defense (3.10 goals allowed/game). Colorado College is 53rd in the country in scoring offense (2.27 goals scored/game) and 28th in scoring defense (2.83 goals allowed/game).

North Dakota is strong offensively on the back end this season, with junior Tyler Kleven and senior Ethan Frisch leading the way. A trio of graduate students (Chris Jandric, Ty Farmer, and Ryan Sidorski) match up well with junior Cooper Moore to form a puck-moving defensive corps not unlike the one that took UND all the way to the national title seven years ago.

The six blueliners expected in the lineup for the Green and White this weekend have scored 18 goals and added 67 assists for 83 points in 151 combined games this season (0.55 points/game). Back in 2015-16, Troy Stecher, Tucker Poolman, Paul LaDue, Keaton Thompson, Christian Wolanin, and Gage Ausmus combined for 24-91-115 in 241 games played (0.48 points/game).

By comparison, the six available defensemen for Colorado College have posted a line of 6-44-50 in 172 games (0.29).

For CC, freshman netminder Kaidan Mbereko (6-14-2, 2.46 goals-against average, .922 save percentage) has been a bright spot. Since entering conference play, the first-year goalie from West Bloomfield, Michigan has posted three shutouts and allowed a total of 43 goals in 20 games. Mbereko is winless in his last nine starts despite giving up more than three goals just once in that span.

Colorado College Tigers

Head Coach: Kris Mayotte (2nd season at CC, 19-42-4, .323)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 39th
KRACH Rating: 83.4 (36th)

This Season: 10-18-2 overall, 6-11-2-1 NCHC (7th)
Last Season: 9-24-3 overall, 4-16-2-2 NCHC (t-7th)

2022-2023 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 2.27 goals scored/game – 53rd of 62 teams
Team Defense: 2.83 goals allowed/game – 28th of 62 teams

Power Play: 21.7% (26 of 120) – 21st of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 80.6% (79 of 98) – 29th of 62 teams

Key players: Junior F Hunter McKown (17-5-22), Freshman F Noah Laba (10-8-18), Sophomore F Stanley Cooley (6-11-17), Freshman F Ryan Beck, Junior F Logan Will (4-4-8), Graduate D Bryan Yoon (1-13-14), Junior D Nicklas Andrews (2-9-11), Junior D Jack Millar (1-6-7), Freshman G Kaidan Mbereko (6-14-2, 2.46 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (8th season at UND, 175-90-30, .644)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 21st
KRACH Rating: 171.1 (16th)

This Season: 13-13-5 overall, 6-10-2-2 NCHC (6th)
Last Season: 24-14-1 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 17-6-1 NCHC (t-1st)

2022-2023 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.45 goals scored/game – 10th of 62 teams
Team Defense: 3.10 goals allowed/game – 41st of 62 teams

Power Play: 30.8% (41 of 133) – 1st of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 80.5% (95 of 118) – 30th of 62 teams

Key Players: Junior F Riese Gaber (19-12-31), Freshman F Jackson Blake (13-23-36), Freshman F Owen McLaughlin (2-12-14), Graduate F Mark Senden (7-9-16), Senior F Gavin Hain (9-5-14), Senior F Judd Caulfield (9-7-16), Graduate D Chris Jandric (3-27-30), Junior D Tyler Kleven (6-9-15), Senior D Ethan Frisch (4-11-15), Junior D Cooper Moore (3-9-12), Graduate G Drew DeRidder (8-7-3, 2.88 GAA, .889 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 12, 2022 (Grand Forks, ND). In a carbon copy of the previous night’s league playoff opener, North Dakota sandwiched two second-period goals around a CC marker to survive a tight 2-1 contest. The Tigers outshot UND 30-22 for the game; each team scored once on the power play. In Friday’s opener, the Fighting Hawks outshot CC 23-16.

Last Meeting in Colorado Springs: December 11, 2021. The Tigers opened the scoring eight minutes into the opening frame, but UND would only trail for 47 seconds before Louis Jamernik V potted the equalizer. A second-period power play goal and two empty-netters 29 seconds apart accounted for the misleading final score of 4-1. One night earlier, the home team got on the board three minutes into the contest, and Jamernik waited eleven minutes before tying the game. Three straight North Dakota tallies put the game out of reach, and the final scoreboard read 5-2 for the visitors. The Fighting Hawks put 62 total shots on net in the weekend series and allowed 54.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 172-84-11 (.665), although Colorado College holds the slightest of edges (59-58-4, .504) in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948; North Dakota’s 172 wins over the Tigers are the most against any single opponent in program history.

Last Ten: North Dakota has swept the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring CC 34-9 over that span. In those ten tilts, the Tigers have been shut out three times, scored a single goal five times, and managed two goals twice. The Fighting Hawks’ last loss to Colorado College was at CC on March 1, 2019 (1-3).

Game News and Notes

North Dakota head coach Brad Berry is 23-4-1 (.839) in his head coaching career against Colorado College. CC has won two national titles (1950, 1957). Since 1957, the Tigers have appeared in the NCAA tournament thirteen times (most recently in 2011) and advanced to three Frozen Fours (1996, 1997, 2005). Head coaches Scott Owens (1999-2014) and Don Lucia (1993-1999) combined to lead CC to six regular-season titles, twelve NCAA tournament appearances, three Frozen Fours, and one national championship game appearance (1996). Twelve UND players expected to be in the lineup this weekend have scored goals in their careers against Colorado College. Since scoring seven goals in a win over Princeton on December 30th, CC has scored a total of fourteen goals over the past eleven contests (1.27 goals scored per game), going 1-9-1 with the lone victory back on January 13th against St. Cloud State. The Tigers are 6-1-0 when leading after one period of play but 1-12-0 when trailing. Both UND and CC had twenty players named to the NCHC’s academic all-conference team, tied for most in the league.

The Prediction

North Dakota is playing its best hockey of the season and is building toward making some noise in the league playoffs. It’s looking increasingly likely that UND will need to win the NCHC Frozen Faceoff in St. Paul to advance to the national tournament, but there is a puncher’s chance that the Green and White could sneak into the top 15 in the Pairwise. To that end, a sweep this weekend is paramount. Colorado College seems to have the advantage between the pipes, but Mbereko is just a freshman and has struggled in his ten games against the other top offensive teams in the league, going 0-9-0 against Western Michigan, Denver, and St. Cloud State while allowing a total of 26 goals. Brad Berry’s squad should be able to get at least three goals each night, and that’s plenty against the Tigers. UND 4-2, 3-1.

Broadcast Information

Friday’s opener will be broadcast on AT&T Sportsnet out of Colorado and picked up locally on Midco Sports. Both games will also be available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

Social Media

Keep up with the action live during all UND hockey games by following @UNDmhockey and @UNDInsider on Twitter. Fans can also read the action via Brad Schlossman’s live chat on the Grand Forks Herald website.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Down The Home Stretch Part II: Who Will Win The Penrose Cup?

This post has been updated to reflect that each team has four conference games remaining in the 2022-2023 regular season.

In the nine completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017, 2022).

Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past six seasons.

Here is the average finish for each of the eight conference opponents:

North Dakota: 2.33
St. Cloud State: 3.11
Denver: 3.22
Minnesota Duluth: 3.22
Western Michigan: 4.89
Omaha: 5.11
Miami: 6.78
Colorado College: 7.33

And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):

2022: DU, UND, WMU, UMD, SCSU, UNO, CC, MIA
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA

This season, Denver appears to be in the driver’s seat for their third regular season league title, with a five-point lead over Western Michigan, a six-point lead over Omaha, and an eight-point lead over St. Cloud State.

Here are the current standings with two weeks to play in the regular season (all teams have four games remaining):

1. Denver (44 points)
2. Western Michigan (39)
3. Omaha (38)
4. St. Cloud State (36)
5. Minnesota Duluth (26)
6. North Dakota (24)
7. Colorado College (23)
8. Miami (10)

Our eyes turn next to the remaining schedule for each team:

1. Denver: at WMU, vs./at CC
2. Western Michigan: vs. DU, at Miami
3. Omaha: vs. SCSU, at UND
4. St. Cloud State: at Omaha, vs. UMD
5. Minnesota Duluth: vs. Miami, at SCSU
6. North Dakota: at CC, vs. Omaha
7. Colorado College: vs. UND, at/vs. DU
8. Miami: at UMD, vs. WMU

If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three league points) or series (worth six). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.

Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.

It comes as no surprise that Denver- at the top of the league standings – is also the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.

Here are the ratings:

KRACH #4 Denver: 360.9
KRACH #6 St. Cloud State: 323.3
KRACH #7 Western Michigan: 310.9
KRACH #15 Omaha: 193.6
KRACH #16 North Dakota: 170.8
KRACH #19 Minnesota Duluth: 154.1
KRACH #36 Colorado College: 83.1
KRACH #40 Miami: 71.0

Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with over the final two weeks of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:

1. Denver: 52.10 league points
2. Western Michigan: 46.65
3. Omaha: 44.18
4. St. Cloud State: 43.07
5. Minnesota Duluth: 32.04
6. North Dakota: 30.85
7. Colorado College: 26.09
8. Miami: 13.02

As you might have already noticed, there is a widening gap between the top four teams and the bottom four teams, with home ice nearly out of reach for Minnesota Duluth and North Dakota.

With better-than-expected results last weekend, Western Michigan, Omaha, Duluth, and North Dakota saw their projections increase, while Denver, St. Cloud State, Colorado College, and Miami fell short of expectations and dropped.

If these results play out, two first-round playoff matchups – St. Cloud State vs. Duluth and Omaha vs. North Dakota – would end up being rematches of the final week of the regular season.

As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding in the most competitive league in the country. The other unknowns, of course, are which teams stay healthy and get better goaltending in games that will certainly tighten up as the playoffs approach.

I will run these numbers one more time next week, before the final regular season games are played.

So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

North Dakota (12-13-4, 6-10-2 NCHC) hosts #6 St. Cloud State (18-8-2, 10-6-2 NCHC) at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks this weekend in a matchup of two perennial powerhouses. It is worth noting that, despite being unranked, UND currently sits in 22nd place in the all-important Pairwise Rankings, mostly due to the fact that ten of its thirteen losses are to teams in the top eight in the country (Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver four times, St. Cloud State twice, and Western Michigan twice). St. Cloud State is 7th in the Pairwise coming into this weekend.

According to KRACH, North Dakota has faced the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule to this point of the season, while the Huskies’ schedule weighs in as the tenth-most difficult.

In addition to the ten losses mentioned above, the three defeats that are looming large in UND’s current Pairwise predicament are:

Arizona State 3, North Dakota 2 (October 29th)

Miami 4, North Dakota 3 (November 19th)

Minnesota Duluth 2, North Dakota 1 (January 21st)

All three of those games were tied in the third period.

With ten conference losses against just six victories, the Fighting Hawks are currently in seventh place in the league standings with just six NCHC games remaining. As I wrote earlier this week, it is almost a mathematical certainty that UND will go on the road for the first round of the NCHC playoffs, with its most likely opponents Omaha, Western Michigan, or St. Cloud State.

On December 2nd and 3rd, 2022, SCSU swept North Dakota on home ice (7-2, 6-3), scoring six straight goals in each contest. On Friday night, a disastrous second period saw the Huskies score every which way: at even strength, shorthanded, with the extra attacker on a delayed penalty, and on the ensuing power play. In Saturday’s rematch, the Fighting Hawks built a 3-0 lead early in the second period, but SCSU scored just 23 seconds after UND’s third goal and never looked back, potting four goals in the final frame.

Almost exactly one year before that series (Friday, December 3rd, 2021), the homestanding Huskies embarrassed the Fighting Hawks by a final score of 8-1. SCSU went 3-for-7 on the power play and held UND scoreless on two man-advantage opportunities. In Saturday’s rematch, North Dakota turned the specialty teams tables, going 1-for-7 on the power play and killing all four Husky power plays en route to a 5-3 road victory and a split of the weekend series.

The Fighting Hawks had better success in Grand Forks last season, earning a 7-1 victory to go along with a 3-3 tie (and shootout victory) in late January.

At #7 in the Pairwise and with an overall record of 18-8-2, St. Cloud State is in line to make the NCAA tourney for the sixth consecutive season. (It is worth noting that in 2019-2020 – when there was no national tournament – SCSU went just 13-15-6.) The Huskies’ eight losses this season have come at Bemidji State (PWR 30), at Denver (PWR 4), vs. Western Michigan (PWR 8), at Miami (PWR 45), at Minnesota (PWR 1), vs. Colorado College (PWR 31), and at Minnesota Duluth twice (PWR 25).

Over the last two weekends of action, the Huskies were swept at UMD and managed two ties at home against Miami. Idle last weekend, St. Cloud State has not won a game since January 21st. SCSU has been brilliant at home on the wide Olympic ice (200×100), going 11-2-2. On the road, however, Brett Larson’s squad has gone just 7-6-0. With Colorado College building a new rink with NHL ice and Minnesota planning to narrow its ice sheet this offseason, St. Cloud State will be one of just six Division I men’s programs playing on a sheet wider than 85 feet; the others are Alaska (200×100), Massachusetts (200×95), New Hampshire (200×100), Northern Michigan (200×100), and Wisconsin (200×97).

North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021, and 2022) and St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, and 2019) have combined to win the regular season title in eight of the nine seasons of the NCHC. The Huskies also won the last WCHA conference title in 2013.

Given that these two squads have been at the top of the league standings since its inception, it was only fitting that they would meet in the 2021 NCHC Frozen Faceoff championship game, played in Grand Forks. Top-seeded North Dakota (20-5-1) squared off against #2 seed St. Cloud State (17-9-0). UND trailed 2-1 after two periods but strung together three goals just 122 seconds apart to take a lead they would never relinquish. The victory secured North Dakota’s first NCHC postseason title in the eight-year history of the league and its first conference playoff championship since the 2012 WCHA Final Five. In a nod to the Miracle On Ice, fans may well remember the 6-3 victory over Minnesota in the “Timeout Game” that year but forget that there was another game to play in the tournament. One night later, the green and white was out in full force on St. Patrick’s Day, and the Green and White dispatched Denver 4-0 to hoist the Broadmoor Trophy for the third consecutive season.

Turning our attention to this weekend’s matchup, a half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and Brett Larson’s squad has eight players who meet that threshold: graduate forward Grant Cruikshank (17-10-27), senior forward Jami Krannila (16-17-33), senior forward Zack Okabe (15-12-27), senior forward Kyler Kupka (7-10-17 in 22 games), junior forward Veeti Miettinen (7-15-22), freshman forward Adam Ingram (4-10-14), senior defenseman Dylan Anhorn (5-20-25 in 23 games), and sophomore defenseman Jack Peart (2-19-21).

Unfortunately, Dylan Anhorn suffered a season-ending injury last month.

By that same measure, North Dakota boasts nearly identical numbers, with eight skaters at a half point per game or better: junior forward Riese Gaber (16-12-28), freshman forward Jackson Blake (13-20-33), graduate forward Mark Senden (7-9-16), senior forward Judd Caulfield (9-7-16), graduate defensemen Chris Jandric (3-23-26), senior defenseman Ethan Frisch (3-10-13), junior defenseman Tyler Kleven (6-7-13), and junior defenseman Cooper Moore (3-9-12 in 24 games).

Tyler Kleven is suspended for Friday’s opener after taking his fourth major penalty of the season last Saturday night in Denver.

UND is fourth in the nation in shooting percentage at an astounding 12.0% (101 goals on 841 shots). By comparison, St. Cloud State is eighth in the country at 11.8% (95 goals on 802 shots). The two teams are nearly identical in shots on goal per game (UND 29.0, SCSU 28.6) and shots on goal allowed per game (UND 25.3, SCSU 26.2). North Dakota leads the Huskies in both puck possession statistics (UND is 18th in Corsi and 22nd in Fenwick; SCSU is 26th and 28th, respectively).

One key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s 20th-best team on draws (51.9%), while St. Cloud State clocks in at 52.8% (15th).

UND had been one of the country’s best faceoff teams before Jake Schmaltz suffered an upper-body injury against Miami. In the last three games without Schmaltz in the lineup, North Dakota has won just 45.4 percent of faceoffs (95 of 209). The sophomore from McFarland, Wisconsin, who has won 272 of his 484 draws this season (56.2%), is expected back on the ice this weekend.

Among other UND centermen, junior Louis Jamernik V has been solid (283 of 545, 51.9%), while freshman Owen McLaughlin has shown improvement (154 of 307, 50.2%). Freshman Ben Strinden has chipped in with 53 wins in 111 opportunities (47.7%).

SCSU will counter with graduate student Grant Cruikshank (314 of 567, 55.4%), senior Jami Krannila (200 of 405, 49.4%), sophomore Mason Salquist (193 of 357, 54.1%), and graduate student Aidan Spellacy (121 of 206, 58.7%). Salquist is Grand Forks native.

To this point in the season, North Dakota has had far the better of the specialty teams play. UND has been a combined plus-19, with 38 power play goals scored (38 of 126, 30.2%, best in the country) and only nineteen power play goals allowed (91 of 110, 82.7%, 19th), with two shorthanded goals scored and two allowed.

St. Cloud State has posted a plus-7, with 27 power play goals scored (27 of 113, 23.9%, 10th), 26 power play goals allowed (87 of 113, 77.0%, 50th), a remarkable SEVEN shorthanded goals scored, and one allowed.

North Dakota has earned far more man advantage opportunities than shorthanded situations this season (126-110), while St. Cloud State is dead even (113-113).

North Dakota is 10th in the country in scoring offense (3.48 goals scored/game) but just 40th in the country in scoring defense (3.14 goals allowed/game). St. Cloud State is 12th in the country in scoring offense (3.39 goals scored/game) and a stellar 5th in scoring defense (2.18 goals allowed/game).

The six blueliners expected in the lineup for the Green and White this weekend have scored 17 goals and added 66 assists for 83 points in 158 combined games this season (0.53 points/game). Back in 2015-16, Troy Stecher, Tucker Poolman, Paul LaDue, Keaton Thompson, Christian Wolanin, and Gage Ausmus combined for 24-91-115 in 241 games played (0.48 points/game).

By comparison, the six available defensemen for St. Cloud State have posted a line of 7-43-50 in 140 games (0.36).

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Brett Larson (5th season at SCSU, 99-55-15, .630)

National Rankings: #6/#6
Pairwise Ranking: 7th
KRACH Ranking: 6th

This Season: 18-8-2 overall, 9-6-3-0 NCHC (4th)
Last Season: 18-15-4 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinalist), 9-8-2-5 NCHC (5th)

2022-2023 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.39 goals scored/game – 12th of 62 teams
Team Defense: 2.18 goals allowed/game – 5th of 62 teams

Power Play: 23.9% (27 of 113) – 10th of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 77.0 (87 of 113) – 50th of 62 teams

Key players: Graduate F Grant Cruikshank (17-10-27), Senior F Jami Krannila (16-17-33), Senior F Zack Okabe (15-12-27), Senior F Kyler Kupka (7-10-17 in 22 games), Junior F Veeti Miettinen (7-15-22), Freshman F Adam Ingram (4-10-14), Sophomore D Jack Peart (2-19-21), Graduate D Brendan Bushy (2-6-8), Junior G Dominic Basse (9-3-2, 1.99 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (8th season at UND, 174-90-29, .643)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 22nd
KRACH Ranking: 17th

This Season: 12-13-4 overall, 6-10-1-1 NCHC (7th)
Last Season: 24-14-1 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 17-6-1 NCHC (t-1st)

2022-2023 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.48 goals scored/game – 10th of 62 teams
Team Defense: 3.14 goals allowed/game – 40th of 62 teams

Power Play: 30.2% (38 of 126) – 1st of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 82.7% (91 of 110) – 19th of 62 teams

Key Players: Junior F Riese Gaber (16-12-28), Freshman F Jackson Blake (13-20-33), Freshman F Owen McLaughlin (1-12-13), Graduate F Mark Senden (7-9-16), Senior F Gavin Hain (9-3-12), Senior D Judd Caulfield (9-7-16), Graduate D Chris Jandric (3-24-27), Junior D Tyler Kleven (6-8-14), Senior D Ethan Frisch (4-10-14), Junior D Cooper Moore (3-9-12), Graduate G Drew DeRidder (7-7-2, 2.94 GAA, .890 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 3, 2022 (St. Cloud, Minnesota). The Fighting Hawks built a 3-0 lead early in the second period, but SCSU scored just 23 seconds after UND’s third goal and never looked back, potting four goals in the final frame for a 6-3 victory. In Friday’s opener, the Huskies also scored six consecutive goals, with four of those – at even strength, shorthanded, with the extra attacker on a delayed penalty, and on the ensuing power play – coming in the second period. St. Cloud State outscored UND 13-5 in the weekend sweep.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 29, 2022: After drubbing the visitors 7-1 in Friday’s opener, UND came back from an early 3-1 deficit to send the game to overtime knotted at three apiece. After a scoreless 3-on-3 session, North Dakota’s Ashton Calder scored the only goal in the eight-player shootout for the extra league point.

A Recent Memory: March 16, 2021 (Grand Forks, ND). One night before St. Patrick’s Day, North Dakota enjoyed playing for the NCHC playoff title in front of a whole bunch of green. St. Cloud State led 2-1 after two periods, but the Fighting Hawks stormed back with four third-period goals – including three in the span of 122 seconds early in the final frame and an empty-netter to seal the 5-3 victory and the program’s first Frozen Faceoff championship. UND senior Jordan Kawaguchi and freshman Riese Gaber each had two goals and an assist.

Most Important Meeting: NCAA West Regional Final in Fargo, ND (March 28, 2015). North Dakota scored three unassisted goals over the final two periods of the hockey game to defeat St. Cloud State 4-1 in the West Regional Final and advance to the NCAA Frozen Four. Jimmy Murray got the Huskies on the board less than 90 seconds in to the hockey game, but that did nothing to quiet the partisan crowd of 5,307 at SCHEELS Arena. Four different players scored for UND, while Zane McIntyre made 19 stops to earn his 29th and final victory of the season.

All-Time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series, 79-48-16 (.608), including a sparkling record of 40-19-8 (.657) in games played in Grand Forks. Aside from their 2015 and 2018 NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinal victories, the Huskies also defeated North Dakota in the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game. The teams have been squaring off regularly since the 1989-90 season but have only met once in the NCAA tournament (2015).

Last Ten: SCSU holds a slight lead of 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten tilts between the teams, outscoring the Fighting Hawks 41-35 over that stretch of games. Only three of the last ten UND-SCSU contests have taken place in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

UND’s Riese Gaber has eleven career points against the Huskies. SCSU was 14-3-0 (.824) after a 7-3 victory at Miami on December 9th, but the Huskies have gone just 4-5-2 (.455) since that time, scoring 29 goals but also allowing 29. North Dakota leads the nation with 38 power play goals, an average of 1.31 man-advantage markers per game. St. Cloud State bench boss Brett Larson is sitting on 99 career coaching victories. UND freshman forward Jackson Blake (eight goals and fourteen assists for 22 points in 18 NCHC games) trails only SCSU senior Jami Krannila (14-11-25 in 18) in the league scoring race.

The Prediction

In the December series, St. Cloud State used their speed advantage and experience on the wide sheet of ice to throttle North Dakota in back-to-back games. It will be a different story this time around, as UND – with its back against the wall – will put forth its best effort of the season. As it so often does, both games will come down to specialty teams and goaltending. Each team holds an advantage in one of those areas, so the number of penalties called this weekend will go a long way toward determining the outcome of each contest. I can’t see the Fighting Hawks doing better than a split, although stranger things have happened. UND 4-2, SCSU 4-3.

Broadcast Information

Friday’s opener will be broadcast exclusively on CBS Sports Network, with Saturday’s rematch available on Midco Sports and also via livestream at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

Social Media

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Down The Home Stretch: Who Will Win The 2023 Penrose Cup?

Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in five of the past six seasons.

Here is the average finish for each of the eight conference opponents:

North Dakota: 2.33
St. Cloud State: 3.11
Denver: 3.22
Minnesota Duluth: 3.22
Western Michigan: 4.89
Omaha: 5.11
Miami: 6.78
Colorado College: 7.33

And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):

This season, Denver appears to be in the driver’s seat for their third regular season league title, with an eight-point lead over Western Michigan, Omaha, and St. Cloud State.

Here are the current standings with three weeks to play in the regular season (all teams have six games remaining):

1. Denver (41 points)
2. Western Michigan (33)
3. Omaha (33)
4. St. Cloud State (33)
5. Minnesota Duluth (23)
6. Colorado College (23)
7. North Dakota (21)
8. Miami (9)

Our eyes turn next to the remaining schedule for each team:

1. Denver: vs. UMD, at WMU, vs./at CC
2. Western Michigan: vs. CC, vs. DU, at Miami
3. Omaha: at Miami, vs. SCSU, at UND
4. St. Cloud State: at UND, at Omaha, vs. UMD
5. Minnesota Duluth: at DU, vs. Miami, at SCSU
6. Colorado College: at WMU, vs. UND, at/vs. DU
7. North Dakota: vs. SCSU, at CC, vs. Omaha
8. Miami: vs. Omaha, at UMD, vs. WMU

Here are the ratings:

KRACH #4 Denver: 390.4
KRACH #6 St. Cloud State: 352.9
KRACH #8 Western Michigan: 290.3
KRACH #16 Omaha: 185.5
KRACH #17 North Dakota: 156.8
KRACH #19 Minnesota Duluth: 145.8
KRACH #33 Colorado College: 88.8
KRACH #37 Miami: 75.5

Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with over the final three weeks of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:

1. Denver: 53.70 league points
2. St. Cloud State: 45.33
3. Western Michigan: 44.91
4. Omaha: 42.60
5. Minnesota Duluth: 30.34
6. North Dakota: 29.42
7. Colorado College: 27.69
8. Miami: 14.03

As you might have already noticed, the two most compelling races to watch are between St. Cloud State and Western Michigan for 2nd place and between Minnesota Duluth and North Dakota for 5th place. It seems fairly certain that Miami will travel to Denver for the first round of the conference playoffs. St. Cloud State, Western Michigan, and Omaha should end up hosting the first round; their opponents are still very much undecided.

Depending on interest, I may revisit this on a weekly basis throughout the month of February, noting which teams outperform or underperform their expectation each weekend.

So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at Denver

North Dakota (12-11-4) travels to face #4 Denver (21-7-0) for a pair of NCHC games this weekend in a matchup of two perennial powerhouses. It is worth noting that, despite being unranked, UND currently sits in 21st place in the all-important Pairwise Rankings, mostly due to the fact that eight of its eleven losses are to teams in the top nine in the country (Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver twice, St. Cloud State twice, and Western Michigan twice). Denver is 6th in the Pairwise coming into this weekend.

According to KRACH, North Dakota has faced the nation’s tenth-toughest schedule to this point of the season, while the Pioneers’ schedule weighs in as the fifteenth-most difficult.

In addition to the eight losses mentioned above, the three defeats that are looming large in UND’s current Pairwise predicament are:

Arizona State 3, North Dakota 2 (October 29th)

Miami 4, North Dakota 3 (November 19th)

Minnesota Duluth 2, North Dakota 1 (January 21st)

All three of those games were tied in the third period.

Before we dig into this weekend’s matchup, let’s take a quick look back at the past few games between the two teams…

UND looked overmatched against the visiting Pios back in November, as David Carle’s squad managed a 3-2, 6-3 road sweep over a Fighing Hawks squad that had taken five of six points at Omaha the week before. Friday’s opener ended up as a one-goal DU victory, but that was only because North Dakota held the Pioneers scoreless on six man advantage opportunities.

In the 2021 NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinals (held at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks), North Dakota needed overtime to outlast a gutsy performance by a Pios squad that had been decimated by COVID-19. DU dressed only nine forwards for the contest but led 1-0 with under 90 seconds remaining. With the goalie pulled, the Fighting Hawks’ Shane Pinto blasted a shot on net that hit Jasper Weatherby on the way in to send the game to overtime. It took over eight minutes of extra time before Gavin Hain sent the home crowd into a frenzy with a blast of his own that advanced the Green and White into the championship game; Denver had just killed Antti Tuomisto’s boarding minor but could not clear the zone. UND outshot the weary Pioneers 20-4 in the third period and overtime.

With the playoff victory, North Dakota moved to 20-5-1 on the season; David Carle’s squad saw its season end at 10-13-1, the first time DU failed to advance to the NCAA tournament since 2007. The 2020-2021 season was the first losing campaign for DU since the 1999-2000 team went 16-23-2. UND won five of the seven meetings between the teams two years ago, outscoring the Pios 22-14. North Dakota allowed ten goals in the first three meetings with a record of 1-2; since their loss in game one at Denver on January 17th, the Fighting Hawks notched four consecutive victories over DU (15 goals for, 4 goals against). That mid-January defeat was definitely a wakeup call for Brady Berry’s squad; from that point until the end of the season, the Green and White went 13-3, outscoring opponents 69-28.

Denver definitely rebounded last year, going 31-9-1 and defeating Minnesota State 5-1 for the program’s ninth national title. That championship game was tied 1-1 until the 7:33 mark of the third period. The Pios would add two empty-net goals for the misleading final score.

Since Denver ended North Dakota’s season in 2019, UND has gone 10-4-1 against the Pios.

In the NCHC, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota is at the top of the league rivalries, with the two programs combining for seven NCHC regular season titles and averaging a top-three finish in the league standings each year (UND 2.2, DU 3.1).

The teams have played 43 times during the first nine seasons of the new conference (with UND going 19-17-7), but the feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that 2005 Final Five contest (a Denver victory), the two teams have met thirteen times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has earned six victories and a tie in the last ten playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012), the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four, 2016’s thrilling Frozen Four semifinal (a 4-2 UND victory) in Tampa, Florida, and the 2017 NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinal in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Denver turned the tables by dispatching North Dakota in the first round of the league playoffs at Magness Arena to end the Fighting Hawks’ 2018-2019 campaign.

(It is impossible to bring up the Paukovitch/Bina incident without also writing that Brad Malone‘s check on Denver’s Jesse Martin during an October 2010 contest at Ralph Engelstad Arena fractured three of Martin’s vertebrae and ended the hockey career of the Atlanta Thrashers’ draft pick.)

The rivalry intensified two seasons ago, with the teams combining for 187 penalty minutes in six regular season games (the NCHC semifinal game featured just four minor penalties). The last contest between the squads in Denver saw a DU goaltender run over with nine minutes remaining, which ignited tempers further. That spilled over to the series in Grand Forks in February, with the Pioneers “winning” the penalty minute battle 54-29. North Dakota won the specialty teams battle, scoring two goals on ten man-advantage opportunities and blanking DU on its ten power play chances.

In Saturday’s series finale, North Dakota led on the scoreboard 5-2 thanks to two goals by Jasper Weatherby and 18 saves from Peter Thome, who started in place of injured netminder Adam Scheel. And how was Scheel injured, you might ask? Denver’s Kohen Olischefski ran Scheel from behind late in Friday’s 3-0 UND victory. Olischefski was given a five-minute major and a game misconduct for goaltender interference and was issued an additional one-game suspension by the league office.

And in the only series played between the teams last year, the two sides combined for 78 penalty minutes and ten power play opportunities. UND swept the series 3-1 and 4-1, thanks in no small part to a 1-for-5 effort on the power play and a perfect penalty kill.

The NCHC has been the premier hockey conference since its inception, and particularly over the past eight seasons. The eight teams in the league have gone 434-223-72 (.645) in non-conference action since the start of the 2014-15 season and sent twelve teams to the Frozen Four (UND and Omaha in 2015, UND and Denver in 2016, Denver and Duluth in 2017, Duluth in 2018, Denver and Duluth in 2019, Duluth and St. Cloud State in 2021, and Denver in 2022) over that seven-year stretch (there was no national tournament in 2020). Conference members North Dakota (2016), Denver (2017, 2022), and Minnesota Duluth (2018, 2019) have won five of the last six national titles.

Turning our attention to this weekend’s matchup, a half-point per game or better is my benchmark for solid offensive production, and David Carle’s squad has ten active players who meet that threshold, including two averaging a point per game or better: sophomore forward Massimo Rizzo (10-23-33) and senior forward Casey Dornbach (12-16-28). Others contributing offensively include freshman forward Aidan Thompson (5-14-19), sophomore forward Carter Mazur (17-6-23), sophomore forward Tristan Broz (9-12-21), sophomore forward Carter King (10-7-17), sophomore forward Jack Devine (5-10-15), junior defenseman Mike Benning (2-5-7), sophomore defenseman Sean Behrens (2-13-15), and sophomore defenseman Shai Buium (1-13-14). Rizzo was a former North Dakota recruit.

It is worth noting that DU lost its top four point-getters and six of the top ten from last year’s title team: forwards Bobby Brink (14-43-57), Cole Guttman (19-26-45), Carter Savoie (23-22-45), Brett Stapley (18-25-43), Cameron Wright (23-11-34), and Ryan Barrow (8-13-21) combined to score 105 of Denver’s 175 goals (60.0%) and 245 of the team’s 493 points (49.7%) a season ago.

By that same measure, North Dakota boasts nearly identical numbers, with ten skaters at a half point per game or better (and two over a point per game): junior forward Riese Gaber (16-12-28) and freshman forward Jackson Blake (12-18-30) are leading the way, with contributions from senior forward Gavin Hain (9-3-12 in 24 games), graduate forward Mark Senden (6-9-15), senior forward Judd Caulfield (8-7-15), freshman forward Owen McLaughlin (1-12-13), freshman forward Ben Strinden (3-6-9 in 18 games), graduate defensemen Chris Jandric (3-23-26), senior defenseman Ethan Frisch (3-10-13), and junior defenseman Tyler Kleven (6-7-13).

UND is second in the nation in shooting percentage at an astounding 12.3% (96 goals on 781 shots). By comparison, Denver is 12th in the country at 11.0% (102 goals on 924 shots). The Pioneers average more than four additional shots on goal per game than the Fighting Hawks (33.0 – 28.9) and lead UND in both puck possession statistics (Corsi and Fenwick).

One key area to watch this weekend is the face-off circle. The Fighting Hawks are the nation’s sixteenth-best team on draws (52.7%), while Denver clocks in at 49.0% (37th).

For UND, sophomore Jake Schmaltz has been making a living on draws, winning 272 of 484 (56.2%). Junior Louis Jamernik V has been nearly even (257 of 499, 51.5%), while freshman Owen McLaughlin has shown improvement (146 of 285, 51.2%). Freshman Ben Strinden has chipped in with 50 wins in 102 opportunities (49.0%).

Unfortunately for North Dakota, Jake Schmaltz remains out of the lineup with an upper-body injury.

For Denver, sophomore Massimo Rizzo has taken the majority of important draws, going 240 of 476 (50.4%). Sophomore Carter King has had the most success (219 of 409, 53.5%), while junior Carter Caponi (186 of 381, 48.8%) and sclass Aidan Thompson (118 of 261, 45.2%) have been steady but not spectacular.

To this point in the season, North Dakota has had far the better of the specialty teams play. UND has been a combined plus-20, with 36 power play goals scored (36 of 113, 31.9%, 2nd in the country) and only sixteen power play goals allowed (81 of 97, 83.5%, 14th), with two shorthanded goals scored and two allowed.

Denver has posted a plus-9, with 31 power play goals scored (31 of 129, 24.0%, 11th), 21 power play goals allowed (73 of 94, 77.7%, 46th), and two shorthanded goals allowed.

Both teams have earned far more man advantage opportunities than shorthanded situations this season, with UND clocking in at plus-sixteen (113-97) and Denver even better at plus-35 (129-94).

North Dakota is 8th in the country in scoring offense (3.56 goals scored/game) but just 36th in the country in scoring defense (3.00 goals allowed/game). Denver is 7th in the country in scoring offense (3.64 goals scored/game) and a stellar 3rd in scoring defense (2.10 goals allowed/game).

North Dakota is strong on the back end this season, with junior Tyler Kleven and senior Ethan Frisch leading the way. A trio of graduate students (Chris Jandric, Ty Farmer, and Ryan Sidorski) match up well with sophomore Brent Johnson and junior Cooper Moore to form a defensive corps not unlike the one that took UND all the way to the national title seven years ago.

The six blueliners regularly in the lineup for the Green and White have scored 16 goals and added 62 assists for 78 points in 147 combined games this season (0.53 points/game). By comparison, the six regular defensemen for Denver have posted a line of 17-55-72 in 149 games (0.48).

Three weeks ago, goaltending and team defense were the two weakest links for this year’s North Dakota squad. Attempting to change that narrative, graduate transfer Drew DeRidder turned in two strong performances against the Bulldogs, allowing just two goals each night and stopping 47 of 51 (a save percentage of .922). DeRidder followed that up with an even better weekend against the Miami RedHawks, stopping 50 of 51 (.980) in the two-game road sweep. Over the last eight games of the regular season and into the playoffs, the Fighting Hawks will need consistently excellent play between the pipes and in their own end if they hope to make a push for home ice. Thankfully for fans of the Green and White, DeRidder now has seven straight starts allowing three goals or fewer (4-1-1, with ten total goals allowed, a goals-against average of 1.63, a save percentage of .938, and two shutouts).

Last season, Denver went 31-9-1 on the way to the program’s ninth national title. North Dakota (2-0 vs. the Pios) and Minnesota Duluth (3-2) were the only teams to beat DU more than once during the 2021-2022 campaign.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: David Carle (5th season at DU, 107-50-13, .668)

National Rankings: #4/#4
Pairwise Ranking: 6th
KRACH Ranking: 5th

This Season: 21-7-0 overall, 10-3-2-1 NCHC (1st)
Last Season: 31-9-1 overall (National Champions), 17-6-1-0 NCHC (1st)

2022-2023 Team Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.64 goals scored/game – 7th of 62 teams
Team Defense: 2.10 goals allowed/game – 3rd of 62 teams

Power Play: 24.0% (31 of 129) – 11th of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 77.7% (73 of 94) – 46th of 62 teams

Key players: Sophomore F Massimo Rizzo (10-23-33), Senior F Casey Dornbach (12-16-28), Freshman F Aidan Thompson (5-14-19), Sophomore F Carter Mazur (17-6-23), Sophomore F Tristan Broz (9-12-21), Sophomore F Carter King (10-7-17), Sophomore F Jack Devine (5-10-15), Junior D Mike Benning (2-5-7), Sophomore D Sean Behrens (2-13-15), Sophomore D Shai Buium (1-13-14), Senior G Magnus Chrona (17-7-0, 2.11 GAA, .916 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Brad Berry (8th season at UND, 174-88-29, .648)

National Rankings: NR/NR
Pairwise Ranking: 21st
KRACH Ranking: 18th

This Season: 12-11-4 overall, 6-8-1-1 NCHC (6th)
Last Season: 24-14-1 overall (NCAA Regional Semifinalist), 17-6-1 NCHC (t-1st)

2022-2023 Season Statistics:

Team Offense: 3.56 goals scored/game – 8th of 62 teams
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game – 36th of 62 teams

Power Play: 31.9% (36 of 113) – 2nd of 62 teams
Penalty Kill: 83.5% (81 of 97) – 14th of 62 teams

Key Players: Junior F Riese Gaber (16-12-28), Freshman F Jackson Blake (12-18-30), Freshman F Owen McLaughlin (1-12-13), Graduate F Mark Senden (6-9-15), Senior F Gavin Hain (9-3-12), Freshman F Dylan James (4-7-11) Graduate D Chris Jandric (3-23-26), Junior D Tyler Kleven (6-7-13), Senior D Ethan Frisch (3-10-13), Junior D Cooper Moore (3-8-11), Graduate G Drew DeRidder (7-5-2, 2.62 GAA, .900 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 12, 2022 (Grand Forks, ND). Denver scored three goals in the second period and added three more in the final frame to dispatch the homestanding Hawks 6-3. UND scored once in each period of play, including a 5-on-3 goal late in the second period. In Friday’s opener, North Dakota won the specialty teams battle (1-5 on the power play, 6-6 on the penalty kill) but lost the game 3-2. DU’s Jared Wright had three goals and an assist in the weekend sweep.

Last Meeting in Denver: January 18, 2021. North Dakota’s Matt Kiersted opened the scoring just eighteen seconds into the contest, and it was off to the races after that. The score was 4-1 late in the third period when Josh Rieger – who hadn’t expected to be in the lineup and was eating chicken wings when his number was called – potted his first goal of the season. The Fighting Hawks would follow up that impressive performance with a home sweep of the Pios (3-0, 5-2) four weeks later.

A Recent Memory: April 7, 2016 (Tampa, Florida). In the semifinals of the NCAA Frozen Four, the two league rivals squared off in a tightly-contested matchup. Senior forward Drake Caggiula scored twice early in the middle frame to stake UND to a 2-0 lead, but the Pioneers battled back with a pair of third period goals. The CBS line came through when it mattered most, with Nick Schmaltz scoring the game winner off of a faceoff win with 57 seconds remaining in the hockey game. North Dakota blocked 27 Denver shot attempts and goaltender Cam Johnson made 21 saves for the Fighting Hawks, who won the program’s eighth national title on the same sheet of ice two nights later.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. But the game that stands out in recent memory as “the one that got away” was DU’s 1-0 victory over the Fighting Sioux in the 2004 NCAA West Regional final (Colorado Springs, CO). That North Dakota team went 30-8-4 on the season (Dean Blais’ last behind the UND bench) and featured one of the deepest rosters in the past twenty years: Brandon Bochenski, Zach Parise, Brady Murray, Colby Genoway, Drew Stafford and David Lundbohm up front; Nick Fuher, Matt Jones, Matt Greene, and Ryan Hale on defense; and a couple of goaltending stalwarts in Jordan Parise and Jake Brandt.

Last Ten Games: The Fighting Hawks have a 6-4-0 (.600) advantage over the last ten games, outscoring DU 30-22 over that stretch of games. The last seven tilts between these rivals have been played in Grand Forks.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 156-132-16 (.539), although the Pios hold a 77-56-5 (.576) advantage in games played in Denver. The teams first met in 1950, with North Dakota prevailing 18-3 in Denver. The 304 games played between the schools is the most among all of UND’s opponents.

Game News and Notes

Since Denver ended North Dakota’s season in 2019, UND has gone 10-4-1 against the Pios. DU is 5-1 at home this season but just 2-2 on the road. Fighting Hawks’ captain Mark Senden has faced Denver 21 times in his collegiate career, with one goal and seven assists in those contests. Eleven of Denver head coach David Carle’s 50 head coaching losses have come against UND. Last season, the Fighting Hawks won the Penrose Cup as NCHC regular season champions for the fifth time in the nine-year history of the league; the Pioneers have captured the Penrose only twice (2016-2017 and 2021-2022). Since seven of Michigan’s nine titles were earned by 1964, I consider Denver (nine titles) and North Dakota (eight titles) to be the top two men’s college hockey programs of all time.

The Prediction

The playoffs start now for North Dakota. Over the next two weekends, UND faces Denver (PWR 6) and St. Cloud State (PWR 7). If the Fighting Hawks can somehow do better than a split against each opponent, the Pairwise predicament becomes a bit less problematic. So what is the recipe this weekend against the Pios? Win the specialty teams battle and get excellent goaltending. The loss of Jake Schmaltz certainly makes things more difficult for the Green and White, so I’m expecting a split this weekend. UND 3-2, DU 5-3.

Broadcast Information

Friday’s opener will be available exclusively on CBS Sports Network. Saturday’s rematch will be available via webcast at NCHC.tv. All UND men’s hockey games can be heard on stations across the UND Sports Home of Economy Radio Network as well as through the iHeart Radio app.

Social Media

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!