In the eight completed seasons of the NCHC, only three teams have ever won the Penrose Cup as league champions: North Dakota (2015, 2016, 2020, 2021), St. Cloud State (2014, 2018, 2019), and Denver (2017).
Minnesota Duluth has to be considered the fourth team of the “Big Four”, with second- or third-place finishes in each of the past five seasons. Here is the average finish for each of the eight conference opponents:
North Dakota: 2.375
St. Cloud State: 2.875
Minnesota Duluth: 3.125
Denver: 3.500
Omaha: 5.000
Western Michigan: 5.125
Miami: 6.625
Colorado College: 7.375
And here are the complete results for each season (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.):
2021: UND, SCSU, UMD, UNO, DU, WMU, CC, MIA
2020: UND, UMD, DU, WMU, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2019: SCSU, UMD, WMU, DU, UND, CC, UNO, MIA
2018: SCSU, DU, UMD, UND, UNO, WMU, CC, MIA
2017: DU, UMD, WMU, UND, SCSU, UNO, MIA, CC
2016: UND, SCSU, DU, UMD, MIA, UNO, WMU, CC
2015: UND, MIA, UNO, DU, UMD, SCSU, WMU, CC
2014: SCSU, UND, UNO, UMD, WMU, DU, CC, MIA
This season, Denver appears to be in the driver’s seat for their second regular season league title, with a three-point lead over North Dakota, a six-point lead over Western Michigan, and a seven-point lead over Minnesota Duluth.
Here are the current standings with five weeks to play in the regular season (most teams have ten games remaining, while St. Cloud State has twelve and Miami has just eight):
1. Denver (32 points in 14 games played)
2. North Dakota (29 in 14)
3. Western Michigan (26 in 14)
4. Minnesota Duluth (25 in 14)
5. St. Cloud State (19 in 12)
6. Omaha (17 in 14)
7. Colorado College (14 in 14)
8. Miami (6 in 16)
Our eyes turn next to the remaining schedule for each team; St. Cloud State has two Tuesday games in addition to Friday/Saturday contests on five consecutive weekends.
1. Denver: vs. SCSU, vs. UMD, @ WMU, @ UNO, @/vs. CC
2. North Dakota: vs. UNO, vs. CC, @ UMD, vs. WMU, @ UNO
3. Western Michigan: @ CC, @ SCSU, vs. DU, @ UND, vs. MIA
4. Minnesota Duluth: BYE, @ SCSU (Tues.), @ DU, vs. UND, @SCSU (Tues.), at MIA, vs. SCSU
5. St. Cloud State: @ DU, vs. UMD (Tues.), vs. WMU, @ UNO, vs. UMD (Tues.), vs. CC, @ UMD
6. Omaha: @ UND, @ MIA, vs. SCSU, vs. DU, vs. UND
7. Colorado College: vs. WMU, @ UND, vs. MIA, @ SCSU, vs./@ DU
8. Miami: BYE, vs. UNO, @ CC, vs. UMD, @ WMU
If only there were a way to directly compare teams and derive a likely result from each game (worth three points) or series (worth six points). And thankfully, there is. KRACH is the most logical system for both ranking and comparing teams, and it gives us a way to predict how the league race will shake out in the NCHC.
Not only does KRACH do a better job of objectively ranking teams, it assigns a rating to each team. If Team A has a rating of 900.0 and Team B has a rating of 100.0, Team A will win nine out of ten games between the teams. Or, in the case of a weekend series, we could surmise that Team A will take 90 percent of the league points available, for an average result of 5.4 out of 6 possible points.
Despite the fact that Denver is at the top of the league standings, Western Michigan is the highest-rated team according to KRACH. Using the following ratings along with the schedule of remaining games listed above, we can run all of the numbers and predict the league race.
Here are the ratings:
KRACH #3 Western Michigan: 673.7
KRACH #5 Denver: 437.1
KRACH #6 St. Cloud State: 411.9
KRACH #8 Minnesota Duluth: 349.2
KRACH #10 North Dakota: 327.6
KRACH #17 Omaha: 164.1
KRACH #34 Colorado College: 79.2
KRACH #48 Miami: 38.2
Running the numbers, here are the average number of points that each team will end up with over the final five weeks of the regular season, along with their predicted order of finish:
1. Denver: 50.53 league points
2. Western Michigan: 47.37
3. North Dakota: 46.98
4. Minnesota Duluth: 41.67
5. St. Cloud State: 40.30
6. Omaha: 29.22
7. Colorado College: 21.86
8. Miami: 10.07
As you might have already noticed, the two most compelling races to watch are between Western Michigan and North Dakota for 2nd place and between Minnesota Duluth and St. Cloud State for the final home-ice spot in the league playoffs. UND and WMU will square off in Grand Forks on February 25th and 26th, while the Bulldogs and Huskies will drop the puck four times (single games on February 8th and 22nd plus a series to end the regular season on March 4th & 5th.
As with the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but this method does give us some insight into what to expect and which games will have more of an impact on playoff seeding in the most competitive league in the country. The other unknowns, of course, are which teams stay healthy and get better goaltending in games that will certainly tighten up as the playoffs approach.
Depending on interest, I may revisit this on a weekly basis throughout the month of February, noting which teams outperform or underperform their expectation each weekend.
So now it’s your turn. Do any of these ratings or results surprise you? What do you expect down the home stretch? How would you predict the final standings? Please feel free to comment below!
As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions. Follow me on Twitter (@DBergerHockey) for more information and insight. Here’s to hockey!