Weekend Preview: North Dakota at Denver

In the NCHC, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota will be at the top of the league rivalries. Despite having played just two games since February 2013, the schools clearly do not like each other. The feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that 2005 Final Five contest (a Denver victory), the two teams have met six times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has won the last four playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012) and the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four.

A key storyline for DU in the early going has been the emergence of freshman forward Danton Heinen. The 6-foot, 161 pound phenom from Langley, British Columbia leads the Pios in scoring with 16 points in 13 games. Heinen, who played his junior hockey with the Surrey Eagles (BCHL), has been even more impressive since the calendar turned to November, cranking out five goals and adding seven assists for twelve points in his last eight contests. Nationally, Jack Eichel (Boston University) has been the most impressive freshman (8-17-25 in 15 games to lead the nation in scoring), but Heinen is the second-most prolific scorer among first-year players.

One of the biggest reasons for UND’s success over the first seventeen games of this current campaign has been North Dakota’s ability to hold a lead. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten this season (10-0-1) when leading after the first forty minutes of play. In fact, over the past nine years, North Dakota is converting ninety percent of second intermission leads into victories (165-13-12).

On the injury front, North Dakota will be without the services of sophomore defenseman Troy Stecher, the most consistent blueliner on the roster (a team-leading +10 on the season). Stecher’s leg injury is expected to keep him out for 6-8 weeks (between six and ten games), with senior d-man Nick Mattson taking his spot in the lineup. Mattson has appeared in nine contests this season after playing 120 games over his first three seasons at UND.

At forward, Drake Caggiula, Mark MacMillan, Brendan O’Donnell, and Nick Schmaltz have returned to the lineup after missing a combined ten games. Colten St. Clair is out indefinitely with an upper body injury he sustained against Lake Superior State, while Bryn Chyzyk has not played since being injured November 21st at St. Cloud State. Chyzyk could return to the lineup this weekend against the Pioneers.

So far, Dave Hakstol has been able to keep things humming by inserting first-year forwards Johnny Simonson, Trevor Olson and Austin Poganski into the lineup (4-6-10 in 41 combined games played). Sophomore winger Wade Murphy has appeared in seven games, and freshman defenseman Tucker Poolman has been effective at forward when called upon. With twelve healthy forwards, however, expect Poolman back at his natural position on the blueline this weekend against Denver.

Junior netminder Zane McIntyre has been everything for North Dakota while the boys in green and white shuffle lines and adjust to the mounting list of injuries. McIntyre, from Thief River Falls, Minnesota, is UND’s all-time leader in goals-against average (2.10) and save percentage (.925). Jean-Phillippe Lamoureux, Jordan Parise, Aaron Dell, and Karl Goehring round out the top five in each category.

For the Pioneers, sophomore goaltender Evan Cowley has started nine of the first thirteen games, posting a record of 6-4-0 with a 1.98 goals-against average, a save percentage of .922, and two shutouts. Cowley, from nearby Arvada, Colorado, played in five games last season (1.76 GAA, .949 SV%) while learning from senior Sam Brittain. At 6’4”, Cowley is three inches taller than Brittain and two inches taller than McIntyre.

UND is currently 7-1-1 (.833) in non-conference play, with only a January home series versus Niagara (3-11-0, .214) remaining outside of their league schedule.

The National Collegiate Hockey Conference as a whole has a stellar record against other leagues so far this season, a far cry from last year’s troubles. Currently, five conference schools are ranked in the top twelve in the country: #1 North Dakota, #6 Miami, #9 Minnesota-Duluth, #11 Denver, and #12 Nebraska-Omaha (St. Cloud State is also receiving votes, while Western Michigan and Colorado College are unranked). More importantly, those same five ranked teams are also currently in the top twelve in the Pairwise rankings. If the league continues to notch non-conference victories at this pace, the NCHC could easily place four or even five teams in the NCAA tournament after sending just three (and barely that) a year ago.

NCHC overall record vs. other conferences: 36-17-2 (.673, best in the country)

NCHC record vs. Atlantic Hockey: 3-2-0 (.600)
NCHC record vs. Big Ten: 12-2-0 (.857)
NCHC record vs. ECAC: 8-4-1 (.654)
NCHC record vs. Hockey East: 3-3-1 (.500)
NCHC record vs. WCHA: 10-6-0 (.625)

The six teams in the Big Ten (Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin) are a combined 29-34-4 (.463) in non-league play, the second-worst winning percentage in college hockey (Atlantic Hockey, 11-33-2, .261). Not including a 7-0-1 mark against Atlantic Hockey, the Big Ten sports a dismal 22-34-3 (.398) record against the other four major hockey conferences.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: Jim Montgomery (2nd season at DU, 29-20-6, .582)
National Rankings: #11/#11
This Season: 9-4-0 overall, 3-2-0-0 NCHC (5th)
Last Season: 20-16-6 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 10-11-3-2 NCHC (6th)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.23 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 27.6% (16 of 58)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (50 of 59)

Key Players: Freshman F Danton Heinen (6-10-16), Senior F Daniel Doremus (4-11-15), Sophomore F Trevor Moore (5-9-14), Junior F Quentin Shore (5-6-11), Senior D Joey LaLeggia (5-6-11), Junior D Nolan Zajac (3-7-10), Sophomore G Evan Cowley (6-4-0, 1.98 GAA, .922 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (11th season at UND, 272-136-42, .651)
National Rankings: #1/#1
This Season: 12-3-2 overall, 5-2-1-0 NCHC (3rd)
Last Season: 25-14-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 15-9-0-0 NCHC (2nd)

Team Offense: 3.41 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.1% (18 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 88.0% (66 of 75)

Key Players: Junior F Drake Caggiula (7-14-21), Senior F Michael Parks (6-13-19), Senior F Mark MacMillan (8-7-15 in 13 games), Freshman F Nick Schmaltz (2-12-14 in 13 games), Junior D Jordan Schmaltz (3-11-14), Sophomore D Paul LaDue (3-6-9), Junior G Zane McIntyre (12-3-2, 1.94 GAA, .929 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 25, 2014 (Denver, CO). Despite outshooting the Pioneers 43-23, North Dakota failed to put one past Sam Brittain and fell 3-0 to homestanding DU. Denver’s Zac Larraza scored two third period goals, one early on the power play and a late empty netter to seal the victory. UND won Friday’s opener 4-2, with nine different players figuring in the scoring for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. But the game that stands out in recent memory as “the one that got away” was DU’s 1-0 victory over the Fighting Sioux in the 2004 NCAA West Regional final (Colorado Springs, CO). That North Dakota team went 30-8-4 on the season (Dean Blais’ last behind the UND bench) and featured one of the deepest rosters in the past twenty years: Brandon Bochenski, Zach Parise, Brady Murray, Colby Genoway, Drew Stafford and David Lundbohm up front; Nick Fuher, Matt Jones, Matt Greene, and Ryan Hale on defense; and a couple of goaltending stalwarts in Jordan Parise and Jake Brandt.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota has had the better of it lately, going 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the schools and outscoring Denver 39-25 over that span. The two teams have also met once in the WCHA Final Five (St. Paul) and once in the NCAA regionals during this most recent stretch, with UND winning both of those playoff games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 138-118-9 (.537), but the Pioneers hold a 69-52-3 (.569) record in game played at altitude.

Game News and Notes

Currently 12-3-2, head coach Dave Hakstol has never won more than thirteen games before Christmas in his ten seasons behind the North Dakota bench. Senior forward Brendan O’Donnell has scored a goal in each of his last three games (UND is 16-0-1 when O’Donnell scores a goal). Denver is 7-2-0 at home this season; North Dakota is 6-1-0 on the road (sweeps at Colorado College and Wisconsin, a road win at Bemidji State, and a split at St. Cloud State). The aforementioned 2003-04 UND squad is the last team to leave Denver with a sweep. The two teams will meet again in February 2015 in Grand Forks.

The Prediction

With all of the talent on both rosters, a split is the most likely result. I’ll take the home team in a close one on Friday, with UND rebounding on Saturday to keep both teams feeling good about themselves heading into the holiday break. DU 3-2, UND 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Lake Superior State

After Union dismantled Minnesota to become the 20th college hockey team to claim a national championship, I ranked all twenty programs. Lake Superior State, UND’s opponent this weekend, came in at #13 (you’ll have to check out the full article to see where North Dakota ended up). At that time, I said this about the Lakers:

From 1987-1996, the Lakers were a college hockey dynasty. Head coaches Frank Anzalone and Jeff Jackson amassed a combined record of 277-80-39 (.749), and Lake Superior appeared in nine straight NCAA tournaments with three national titles (1988, 1992, 1994) and a runner-up finish in 1993. Perhaps the most astounding fact of all is that the best Laker team, the 1990-91 squad, went 36-5-4 but lost their first round NCAA playoff series to Clarkson and didn’t make the Frozen Four. Still, it’s been 18 seasons since those glory days without a single noteworthy accomplishment or tournament appearance. Until that changes, the Lakers are stuck in the past.

Beginning in 1996-97, Lake Superior fell off the college hockey map just as the Fighting Sioux were returning to national prominence. Even though LSSU has competed at the Division I level since 1966, the two teams have never been members of the same conference or met in postseason play. Remarkably, the two schools have only played two games in almost fifty seasons of hockey, a weekend series in Grand Forks in December 1973.

LSSU now competes in the new-look WCHA after competing in the CCHA from 1966 until 2013. Lake Superior had one dominant stretch as mentioned above, claiming three regular season championships and four league playoff titles in a nine year span. But since 1996, the Lakers have only reached the twenty-win plateau once (2006-07) and grew accustomed to finishing in the bottom half of the league standings.

This season, the Lakers went winless in October (0-9-0) and were outscored 36-13 over that stretch of games. November has been a bit better for Lake Superior (3-4-0), although they were recently blanked at home by scores of 7-0 and 3-0 at the hands of current #2 Minnesota State. LSSU is a very young team, with only three seniors on the roster (compared with nine freshmen and nine sophomores). Damon Whitten is in his first year as head coach in Sault Ste. Marie, and he regularly plays a first-year netminder and five freshmen on the blue line.

For the first time since 2002-03, a North Dakota team has ten or more wins over the first two months of the season. UND is currently 10-3-2, compared to an October/November record of 5-7-2 a year ago. Last year’s squad went 20-7-1 (.732) over the final five months of the season, overcoming that slow start and advancing to the Frozen Four for the sixth time in Dave Hakstol’s ten seasons behind the bench.

One of the biggest reasons for UND’s success over the first fifteen games of this current campaign has been North Dakota’s ability to hold a lead. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten this season (8-0-1) when leading after the first forty minutes of play. In fact, over the past nine years, North Dakota is converting ninety percent of second intermission leads into victories (163-13-12).

UND is currently 5-1-1 (.786) in non-conference play, with only a January home series versus Niagara (3-9-0, .250) on the horizon after this weekend’s games.

The National Collegiate Hockey Conference as a whole has a stellar record against other leagues so far this season, a far cry from last year’s troubles. Currently, five conference schools are ranked in the top twelve in the country: #1 North Dakota, #4 Miami, #8 Minnesota-Duluth, #10 Denver, and #12 Nebraska-Omaha (St. Cloud State is also receiving votes, while Western Michigan and Colorado College are unranked). If the league continues to notch non-conference victories at this pace, the NCHC could easily place four or even five teams in the NCAA tournament in March after sending just three (and barely that) a year ago.

NCHC overall record vs. other conferences: 33-16-2 (.667, best in the country)

NCHC record vs. Atlantic Hockey: 3-2-0 (.600)
NCHC record vs. Big Ten: 12-2-0 (.857)
NCHC record vs. ECAC: 7-3-1 (.682)
NCHC record vs. Hockey East: 3-3-1 (.500)
NCHC record vs. WCHA: 8-6-0 (.571)

The six teams in the Big Ten (Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin) are a combined 29-34-4 (.463) in non-league play, the second-worst winning percentage in college hockey (Atlantic Hockey, 11-33-2, .261). Not including a 7-0-1 mark against Atlantic Hockey, the Big Ten sports a dismal 22-34-3 (.398) record against the other four major hockey conferences.

After this weekend, UND will travel to Denver for an important NCHC series against the Pioneers while Lake Superior heads four hours south of Sault Ste. Marie to Big Rapids, Michigan for a pair with Ferris State. The Lakers will also take part in the Florida College Classic (also featuring Cornell, Miami, and Notre Dame) to close out the 2014 portion of their schedule.

Lake Superior Team Profile

Head Coach: Damon Whitten (1st season at LSSU, 3-13-0, .188)
National Ranking: NR/NR
This Season: 3-13-0 overall, 3-9-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 16-19-1 overall, 12-16-0 WCHA (t-8th)

Team Offense: 1.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.88 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 6.9% (5 of 72)
Penalty Kill: 75.9% (41 of 54)

Key Players: Junior F Bryce Schmitt (5-5-10), Senior F Stephen Perfetto (4-2-6), Senior F Chris Ciotti (4-1-5), Freshman D James Roll (0-7-7), Freshman D Jason Bird (1-3-4), Freshman G Gordon Defiel (3-11-0, 3.53 GAA, .900 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (11th season at UND, 270-136-42, .650)
National Ranking: #1/#1
This Season: 10-3-2 overall, 5-2-1-0 NCHC (2nd)
Last Season: 25-14-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four appearance), 15-9-0-0 NCHC (2nd)

Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.07 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.6% (13 of 70)
Penalty Kill: 86.4% (57 of 66)

Key Players: Junior F Drake Caggiula (7-13-20), Senior F Michael Parks (5-11-16), Senior F Mark MacMillan (7-6-13 in 11 games), Freshman F Nick Schmaltz (2-8-10 in 11 games), Junior D Jordan Schmaltz (2-7-9), Sophomore D Troy Stecher (1-8-9), Sophomore D Paul LaDue (3-5-8), Junior G Zane McIntyre (10-3-2, 2.02 GAA, .928 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: December 15, 1973 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after throttling the visiting Lakers 7-2, the homestanding Sioux defeated Lake Superior 7-3 to earn the series sweep. Rookie head coach Rick Comley did manage to win twenty games that season after taking over for the legendary Ron Mason, who left LSSU to coach at Bowling Green (and later Michigan State).

All-time Series: North Dakota has won both of the meetings between the teams by a combined score of 14-5.

Game News and Notes

The Lakers have not made the NCAA tournament since a thirty win season in 1995-96. North Dakota has advanced to the tourney 17 times since then, winning two national titles (1997 and 2000). UND has scored eight shorthanded goals this season, most in the nation. Lake State’s power play is currently 57th out of 59 Division 1 men’s hockey teams. North Dakota junior forward Drake Caggiula is tied for second nationally in scoring (20 points).

The Prediction

Normally, in a mismatched series, the Saturday game will be a closer contest after the underdog has had some time to adjust and prepare for the rematch. But I’ve got a feeling that Friday’s opener will be tighter, with the Lakers running out of gas in game two. UND 4-2, 6-1.