With Saturday’s first three games decided (Notre Dame over Ohio State, Quinnipiac over Yale, and Michigan over Miami), the NCAA tournament field is shaping up.
Changes: Notre Dame a lock, Mankato a lock, Niagara a lock, Western Michigan out, Ohio State out
Locks (11): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Notre Dame, Mass.-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Mankato, Niagara, Denver
Winner guaranteed a slot (but needs to win) (6 teams 3 slots): Union or Brown, Wisconsin or Colorado College, Canisius or Mercyhurst
In if they win (2): Boston University, Michigan
At large possible (2): Yale, St Cloud
Update- The only remaining uncertainty seems to be that St. Cloud and Yale are in line (in that order) for BU and Michigan’s spots. If either lose, St. Cloud gets a spot. If both lose, Yale does too.
As always, the above is my personal transcription and interpretation of the below computer generated results. So, if you see anything inconsistent between the two, or wrong with either, let me know.
| Team | PWR Possibilities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | By number of wins | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac | #1 100.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UMN | #2 100.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Miami | #3 12.5% #4 50.0% #5 37.5% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Boston College | #5 62.5% #6 37.5% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Yale | #13 37.5% #14 37.5% #15 25.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mass.-Lowell | #3 62.5% #4 25.0% #5 0.0% #6 12.5% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
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| UND | #6 50.0% #7 0.0% #8 50.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Hampshire | #7 100.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Notre Dame | #3 25.0% #4 25.0% #5 0.0% #6 0.0% #7 0.0% #8 50.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
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| Mankato | #9 25.0% #10 25.0% #11 46.9% #12 3.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Niagara | #10 50.0% #11 50.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SCSU | #11 3.1% #12 46.9% #13 50.0% Tournament invites: 75.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Denver | #9 75.0% #10 25.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Western Michigan | #14 25.0% #15 50.0% #16 25.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Union | #12 50.0% #13 0.0% #14 0.0% #15 12.5% #16 37.5% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| UW | #13 12.5% #14 37.5% #15 0.0% #16 12.5% #17 12.5% #18 0.0% #19 25.0% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Providence | #21 12.5% #22 12.5% #23 75.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Boston University | #15 12.5% #16 12.5% #17 40.6% #18 31.3% #19 3.1% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Rensselaer | #17 15.6% #18 46.9% #19 37.5% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brown | #20 59.4% #21 28.1% #22 12.5% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Robert Morris | #16 12.5% #17 31.3% #18 21.9% #19 31.3% #20 3.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CC | #24 50.0% #25 50.0% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Ohio State | #29 100.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Michigan | #25 25.0% #26 25.0% #27 0.0% #28 50.0% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Connecticut | Non-TUC 100.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% |
n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canisius | Non-TUC 100.0% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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| Mercyhurst | Non-TUC 100.0% Tournament invites: 50.0% |
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Looks like SCSU needs Mass.-Lowell or Notre Dame to win to free up a slot. Either gets them in, if both lose SCSU is out.
And Yale is #2 in the same line, so needs both Mass.-Lowell and Notre Dame to win so two slots are freed up
Who do you have in if Mercyhurst, Michigan, Brown, BU, and Wisconsin win? Looks to me like StCloud & MSU-Mankato tie with 19 PairWise wins and StC has the PW over MSU (2 Head to head + TUC for StC vs RPI and common opponents for MSU)
RPI is generally thought to be the tie-breaker. That situation would be a great test of that theory, with SCSU having the comparison.
Jim, I don’t know how easy this is for you to do, bu I m interested as to where UND would have ended up overall in the PWR had either/both Holy Cross and UNO dropped out as a TUC. How much would we drop, losing those 4 wins against TUC?
The tricky thing about that is that having them lose actual games to drop out of being a TUC could have other implications. So instead of trying to flip games to get to a particular outcome in the rankings, I’ll just talk about what would happen to UND’s PWR if those two just somehow weren’t counted as TUCs just for UND, all other things equal (you can follow along on UND’s PWR details).
UND’s record vs TUCs would fall to 9-11-4 (.4583).
That would flip the TUC criterion for Notre Dame, Mankato, Yale, Rennselaer, Alaska, Dartmouth, and Cornell.
Of those, the comparisons that would flip would be: Notre Dame, Mankato, and Alaska.
In the current table (all other things equal), winning 21 comparisons instead of 24 would drop UND from 7th to about 9th.