Mid-Friday night update

With 4 of tonight’s games completed (Wisconin over St Cloud, Brown over Quinnipiac, Canisius over Niagara, and Mass-Lowell over Providence), here’s an update on the NCAA tournament outlook.

Changes: Denver is in, Providence is out, Boston University needs to win its tournament, Robert Morris is out

Overall scenario as of now:

In (8): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Mass.-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Denver

Can make it at large (8): Yale, Notre Dame, Mankato, Niagara, St Cloud St, Western Michigan, Union, Wisconsin

Need to win tournament (8): Boston University, Brown, Colorado College, Ohio St, Michigan, Connecticut, Canisius, Mercyhurst

As always, though the table is computer-generated, I have been known to read/transcribe it wrong, so let me know if any of the above doesn’t match up or if you have any questions!

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#1 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Miami #3 41.7%
#4 45.5%
#5 10.0%
#6 2.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 21.7% 29.3% 94.0%
#4 55.4% 65.4% 6.0%
#5 17.8% 4.5%  
#6 5.1% 0.8%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #3 18.8%
#4 15.9%
#5 41.2%
#6 22.0%
#7 2.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     75.0%
#4 19.2%   25.0%
#5 50.1% 64.6%  
#6 27.9% 32.3%  
#7 2.7% 3.1%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Yale #3 1.4%
#4 15.7%
#5 21.8%
#6 26.8%
#7 12.2%
#8 3.6%
#9 1.8%
#10 0.0%
#11 1.2%
#12 4.4%
#13 5.7%
#14 3.9%
#15 1.5%
Tournament invites: 96.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     5.4%
#4   4.0% 56.2%
#5 6.9% 23.7% 38.4%
#6 6.6% 59.1%  
#7 28.3% 6.6%  
#8 3.7% 5.8%  
#9 4.4% 0.9%  
#10      
#11 3.6%    
#12 13.3%    
#13 17.0%    
#14 11.6%    
#15 4.5%    
Tournament invites: 88.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 35.1%
#4 14.6%
#5 24.2%
#6 20.9%
#7 3.8%
#8 1.2%
#9 0.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3 1.6% 68.6%
#4 10.9% 18.3%
#5 35.2% 13.1%
#6 41.8%  
#7 7.5%  
#8 2.4%  
#9 0.6%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UND #5 0.7%
#6 27.0%
#7 60.9%
#8 3.1%
#9 8.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #6 0.5%
#7 20.7%
#8 77.1%
#9 1.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 3.1%
#4 8.3%
#5 2.1%
#6 0.0%
#7 0.3%
#8 2.7%
#9 19.8%
#10 16.5%
#11 9.6%
#12 2.9%
#13 6.4%
#14 4.7%
#15 13.9%
#16 9.5%
#17 0.3%
Tournament invites: 77.2%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     12.6%
#4     33.1%
#5     8.5%
#6      
#7   1.0%  
#8 0.5% 9.8%  
#9 17.0% 39.2% 6.1%
#10 22.5%   21.1%
#11 7.5% 5.0% 18.4%
#12 2.5% 6.3% 0.3%
#13 0.2% 25.4%  
#14 3.0% 12.6%  
#15 27.4% 0.8%  
#16 19.1%    
#17 0.5%    
Tournament invites: 55.4% 98.2% 100.0%
Mankato #8 9.7%
#9 46.8%
#10 24.7%
#11 11.8%
#12 4.5%
#13 2.6%
Tournament invites: 98.5%		 n/a
Niagara #9 0.0%
#10 6.0%
#11 25.6%
#12 44.4%
#13 21.9%
#14 2.1%
Tournament invites: 91.3%		 n/a
SCSU #10 2.1%
#11 16.7%
#12 26.1%
#13 37.7%
#14 14.7%
#15 2.9%
Tournament invites: 78.3%		 n/a
Denver #8 2.5%
#9 21.4%
#10 48.8%
#11 25.4%
#12 2.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 8.3%
#14 42.9%
#15 36.7%
#16 12.1%
Tournament invites: 27.7%		 n/a
Union #10 0.0%
#11 3.2%
#12 9.0%
#13 10.0%
#14 10.7%
#15 21.5%
#16 23.7%
#17 9.4%
#18 5.6%
#19 4.6%
#20 2.2%
Tournament invites: 29.4%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10     0.1%
#11     13.0%
#12     35.9%
#13   1.1% 38.0%
#14 4.7% 14.1% 13.1%
#15 14.1% 40.4%  
#16 27.4% 35.1%  
#17 16.6% 9.3%  
#18 16.9%    
#19 13.7%    
#20 6.6%    
Tournament invites: 4.1% 7.3% 100.0%
UW #10 2.0%
#11 6.7%
#12 6.7%
#13 6.7%
#14 18.0%
#15 11.7%
#16 25.6%
#17 14.9%
#18 3.7%
#19 3.8%
#20 0.1%
Tournament invites: 50.8%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#10   3.9%
#11   13.4%
#12   13.4%
#13   13.4%
#14 1.8% 34.2%
#15 6.7% 16.7%
#16 46.3% 4.9%
#17 29.9%  
#18 7.5%  
#19 7.6%  
#20 0.1%  
Tournament invites: 1.7% 100.0%
Providence #18 2.3%
#19 9.9%
#20 18.1%
#21 21.2%
#22 25.0%
#23 16.6%
#24 6.1%
#25 0.8%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Boston University #13 0.7%
#14 2.6%
#15 8.6%
#16 11.1%
#17 19.2%
#18 10.1%
#19 22.4%
#20 19.2%
#21 5.0%
#22 1.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     2.9%
#14     10.3%
#15     34.6%
#16   12.5% 31.7%
#17   57.7% 19.1%
#18 11.6% 15.6% 1.5%
#19 40.0% 9.4%  
#20 36.0% 4.8%  
#21 10.0%    
#22 2.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #14 0.6%
#15 3.1%
#16 16.8%
#17 45.7%
#18 30.0%
#19 3.8%
Tournament invites: 0.7%		 n/a
Brown #17 3.1%
#18 13.8%
#19 28.6%
#20 25.9%
#21 14.9%
#22 8.7%
#23 4.0%
#24 1.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#17   6.2%
#18   27.5%
#19 11.0% 46.2%
#20 31.7% 20.1%
#21 29.9%  
#22 17.4%  
#23 8.1%  
#24 2.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #16 1.1%
#17 7.3%
#18 29.1%
#19 12.5%
#20 0.0%
#21 0.9%
#22 1.7%
#23 5.9%
#24 7.5%
#25 17.7%
#26 9.4%
#27 6.9%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
CC #18 0.1%
#19 1.0%
#20 2.2%
#21 4.1%
#22 6.7%
#23 13.1%
#24 16.9%
#25 22.1%
#26 31.0%
#27 2.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     0.5%
#19     4.1%
#20     8.9%
#21     16.2%
#22   4.9% 21.9%
#23   18.7% 33.7%
#24 9.2% 34.6% 14.5%
#25 29.2% 29.9% 0.2%
#26 56.2% 11.8%  
#27 5.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #18 0.8%
#19 2.1%
#20 6.6%
#21 6.6%
#22 4.4%
#23 9.2%
#24 4.3%
#25 3.5%
#26 0.0%
#27 9.0%
#28 22.2%
#29 25.0%
#30 0.0%
#31 6.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     3.1%
#19     8.6%
#20     26.3%
#21   0.1% 26.3%
#22   6.0% 11.5%
#23   18.8% 18.0%
#24   17.3%  
#25   7.9% 6.3%
#26      
#27   36.2%  
#28 37.5% 13.8%  
#29 50.0%    
#30 0.0%    
#31 12.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan #23 1.6%
#24 9.4%
#25 10.2%
#26 3.9%
#27 4.5%
#28 8.0%
#29 10.2%
#30 2.3%
#31 0.7%
#32 0.3%
Non-TUC 49.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#23     6.3%
#24     37.5%
#25     40.6%
#26     15.6%
#27   17.8%  
#28   32.2%  
#29   40.8%  
#30   9.2%  
#31 1.4%    
#32 0.7%    
Non-TUC 97.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut #24 2.6%
#25 9.1%
#26 8.7%
#27 4.5%
#28 0.0%
#29 5.2%
#30 12.3%
#31 2.8%
#32 4.8%
Non-TUC 50.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#24     10.5%
#25     36.4%
#26     35.0%
#27     18.2%
#28      
#29   20.7%  
#30   49.1%  
#31   11.1%  
#32   19.1%  
Non-TUC 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2 thoughts on “Mid-Friday night update”

  1. Jim, you have Niagra as a possibility to make it as an at large, but from what I’ve read elsewhere they can’t be considered by the committee because they don’t mee a requirement to have 10 games against TUC teams. Can their TUC record still change and can they really make at large? SCSU fans are SWEATING right now and that may make a big difference.

  2. I’ve never actually seen that interpretation of the 10 TUC rule before. The commonly accepted interpretation of it is that the TUC criterion in the pairwise comparisons is only considered when you have 10 games vs TUCs, not that teams without 10 games vs TUCs are ineligible for at-large bids.

    So, Niagara would still be eligible, just when compared to other teams you would only look at RPI, H2H, and COP, as seen here:
    http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwrdetails.php?teamid=23

    That said, I’m not sure that aspect of it has been tested since that rule was instituted, so I can’t definitively say the common interpretation is correct. But, it sure makes a lot more sense to me.

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