Remaining possible outcomes after Thursday night.

With Wisconsin and Colorado College winning, Alaska’s hopes are officially dashed, Robert Morris’s hopes have been reduced to very very slim, and St. Cloud can now (almost!) clinch an NCAA berth with a single win.

Edit — Hat tip to RHamilton for pointing out in the comments that the 100% formerly under SCSU was rounded and there are indeed 10 very rare scenarios in which St Cloud St can win a game and miss the NCAA tournament.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Miami #3 55.4%
#4 34.8%
#5 8.1%
#6 1.7%
#7 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 37.2% 51.7% 95.6%
#4 45.2% 44.4% 4.4%
#5 14.4% 3.4%  
#6 3.2% 0.5%  
#7 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #3 18.8%
#4 23.9%
#5 28.7%
#6 18.9%
#7 7.7%
#8 2.0%
#9 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     75.0%
#4 21.1% 28.5% 25.0%
#5 34.1% 46.5%  
#6 27.5% 20.6%  
#7 13.4% 3.9%  
#8 3.7% 0.4%  
#9 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Yale #3 1.4%
#4 16.0%
#5 21.4%
#6 16.8%
#7 12.1%
#8 6.3%
#9 3.9%
#10 2.7%
#11 2.7%
#12 4.2%
#13 6.4%
#14 4.7%
#15 1.2%
#16 0.2%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 96.3%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     5.6%
#4   3.9% 57.5%
#5 3.0% 29.7% 32.3%
#6 4.4% 34.4% 4.0%
#7 8.6% 21.8% 0.7%
#8 9.2% 7.7%  
#9 9.3% 2.0%  
#10 7.5% 0.5%  
#11 8.1% 0.0%  
#12 12.5% 0.0%  
#13 19.2%    
#14 14.0%    
#15 3.5%    
#16 0.6%    
#17 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 89.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 18.0%
#4 7.0%
#5 16.9%
#6 30.5%
#7 17.9%
#8 8.1%
#9 1.5%
#10 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3   1.7% 70.1%
#4   10.2% 17.9%
#5 9.7% 36.5% 11.8%
#6 41.8% 38.3% 0.2%
#7 30.4% 11.1%  
#8 15.1% 2.0%  
#9 2.8% 0.3%  
#10 0.1% 0.0%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UND #5 2.8%
#6 9.9%
#7 27.2%
#8 22.1%
#9 21.7%
#10 13.3%
#11 3.0%
#12 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #5 0.5%
#6 4.8%
#7 15.2%
#8 41.1%
#9 33.3%
#10 5.0%
#11 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 6.3%
#4 6.6%
#5 1.7%
#6 0.5%
#7 2.3%
#8 2.4%
#9 7.8%
#10 16.4%
#11 13.5%
#12 6.5%
#13 8.4%
#14 6.5%
#15 10.8%
#16 8.4%
#17 1.5%
#18 0.1%
Tournament invites: 79.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     25.1%
#4     26.5%
#5   1.8% 4.9%
#6   1.9% 0.1%
#7   9.3%  
#8 0.4% 8.8% 0.0%
#9 6.5% 15.7% 2.6%
#10 17.7% 11.1% 19.3%
#11 16.3% 2.4% 19.1%
#12 7.6% 8.7% 2.2%
#13 2.3% 28.8% 0.2%
#14 7.9% 10.3%  
#15 21.1% 1.2%  
#16 16.9% 0.0%  
#17 3.1%    
#18 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 60.4% 97.9% 100.0%
Mankato #5 0.0%
#6 0.3%
#7 1.2%
#8 4.4%
#9 19.1%
#10 34.2%
#11 26.2%
#12 11.8%
#13 2.6%
#14 0.2%
Tournament invites: 99.0%		 n/a
Niagara #4 5.7%
#5 10.5%
#6 8.5%
#7 7.0%
#8 3.1%
#9 2.3%
#10 5.2%
#11 11.9%
#12 21.3%
#13 21.4%
#14 2.9%
#15 0.2%
Tournament invites: 93.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4     22.7%
#5   1.1% 40.9%
#6   9.1% 25.1%
#7   18.5% 9.5%
#8   10.8% 1.7%
#9 0.0% 9.0% 0.1%
#10 1.7% 17.5%  
#11 12.7% 22.3%  
#12 37.5% 10.2%  
#13 42.1% 1.4%  
#14 5.7%    
#15 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 87.2% 99.5% 100.0%
SCSU #3 0.2%
#4 6.0%
#5 9.4%
#6 7.9%
#7 9.4%
#8 9.8%
#9 5.0%
#10 3.3%
#11 7.6%
#12 16.0%
#13 18.3%
#14 6.0%
#15 1.1%
Tournament invites: 91.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     0.8%
#4     23.8%
#5   1.2% 36.5%
#6   6.4% 25.3%
#7   26.5% 10.9%
#8   36.7% 2.4%
#9 0.2% 19.3% 0.2%
#10 3.1% 7.1%  
#11 14.0% 2.4%  
#12 31.9% 0.3%  
#13 36.5% 0.0%  
#14 12.1%    
#15 2.2%    
Tournament invites: 82.3% >99.9% 100.0%
Denver #7 0.0%
#8 0.8%
#9 5.3%
#10 18.9%
#11 30.0%
#12 30.1%
#13 14.7%
#14 0.2%
Tournament invites: 97.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 12.3%
#14 52.5%
#15 29.1%
#16 6.1%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 48.1%		 n/a
Union #9 0.0%
#10 0.4%
#11 2.7%
#12 7.0%
#13 9.4%
#14 11.9%
#15 26.8%
#16 24.6%
#17 7.5%
#18 4.1%
#19 3.2%
#20 1.9%
#21 0.4%
#22 0.1%
Tournament invites: 37.9%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     0.1%
#10     1.7%
#11     10.6%
#12     28.1%
#13   0.6% 36.6%
#14 4.4% 11.4% 22.9%
#15 21.6% 47.0%  
#16 28.0% 36.8%  
#17 17.1% 4.3%  
#18 12.4%    
#19 9.5%    
#20 5.6%    
#21 1.2%    
#22 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 11.9% 21.4% 100.0%
UW #10 0.4%
#11 2.3%
#12 3.0%
#13 4.6%
#14 9.5%
#15 7.7%
#16 11.7%
#17 17.5%
#18 21.1%
#19 14.7%
#20 6.1%
#21 1.5%
#22 0.1%
Tournament invites: 26.3%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10     1.4%
#11     9.1%
#12     12.1%
#13     18.2%
#14   2.0% 36.1%
#15   12.7% 18.2%
#16 0.1% 41.6% 4.8%
#17 20.6% 28.7%  
#18 36.8% 10.7%  
#19 27.3% 4.2%  
#20 12.1% 0.1%  
#21 2.9%    
#22 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 5.3% 100.0%
Providence #13 0.0%
#14 0.7%
#15 5.4%
#16 9.6%
#17 7.4%
#18 9.5%
#19 17.2%
#20 17.3%
#21 13.1%
#22 9.3%
#23 6.9%
#24 2.7%
#25 0.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     0.0%
#14     2.9%
#15     21.4%
#16   2.0% 36.4%
#17 0.0% 5.0% 24.6%
#18 5.3% 18.5% 9.2%
#19 14.2% 36.2% 4.1%
#20 20.9% 26.1% 1.4%
#21 20.7% 11.0%  
#22 18.1% 1.2%  
#23 13.8%    
#24 5.5%    
#25 1.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.2% 100.0%
Boston University #13 2.0%
#14 4.0%
#15 11.6%
#16 10.9%
#17 9.7%
#18 10.5%
#19 20.7%
#20 18.4%
#21 8.9%
#22 3.1%
#23 0.3%
Tournament invites: 25.8%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     7.9%
#14   0.5% 15.5%
#15   3.3% 43.2%
#16   19.6% 24.1%
#17   30.1% 8.5%
#18 8.5% 24.0% 0.7%
#19 33.3% 16.2%  
#20 34.2% 5.3%  
#21 17.4% 0.7%  
#22 6.0% 0.2%  
#23 0.6%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 3.2% 100.0%
Rensselaer #14 0.8%
#15 6.1%
#16 24.7%
#17 34.0%
#18 22.9%
#19 8.9%
#20 2.4%
#21 0.3%
Tournament invites: 5.0%		 n/a
Alaska #16 0.2%
#17 1.9%
#18 5.1%
#19 11.1%
#20 15.4%
#21 15.2%
#22 15.0%
#23 15.0%
#24 12.0%
#25 6.4%
#26 2.4%
#27 0.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Cornell #19 0.9%
#20 2.4%
#21 4.2%
#22 8.8%
#23 19.6%
#24 28.6%
#25 24.3%
#26 10.2%
#27 1.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Brown #16 0.1%
#17 0.8%
#18 4.2%
#19 10.5%
#20 17.4%
#21 20.4%
#22 14.3%
#23 8.0%
#24 6.5%
#25 6.2%
#26 7.9%
#27 3.0%
#28 0.5%
#29 0.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#16     0.3%
#17     3.4%
#18     16.9%
#19 0.5% 5.3% 32.7%
#20 4.2% 22.6% 26.2%
#21 7.3% 32.5% 17.6%
#22 8.3% 25.8% 3.0%
#23 13.4% 8.5%  
#24 13.5% 4.9%  
#25 18.1% 0.5%  
#26 23.6%    
#27 9.1%    
#28 1.6%    
#29 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Dartmouth #18 0.1%
#19 2.4%
#20 10.4%
#21 23.0%
#22 31.5%
#23 22.0%
#24 9.5%
#25 1.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Robert Morris #15 0.0%
#16 3.5%
#17 19.7%
#18 20.1%
#19 6.5%
#20 0.9%
#21 1.9%
#22 4.6%
#23 7.2%
#24 10.6%
#25 15.9%
#26 7.0%
#27 1.9%
Tournament invites: 0.2%		 n/a
CC #18 0.1%
#19 0.9%
#20 2.6%
#21 5.7%
#22 7.7%
#23 11.4%
#24 15.4%
#25 25.2%
#26 26.2%
#27 4.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     0.4%
#19     3.5%
#20     10.4%
#21   2.1% 20.6%
#22   7.0% 23.7%
#23 1.5% 15.9% 26.7%
#24 7.6% 33.3% 13.3%
#25 34.0% 31.8% 1.3%
#26 47.4% 9.9% 0.1%
#27 9.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #18 2.1%
#19 3.0%
#20 4.9%
#21 5.3%
#22 5.0%
#23 6.3%
#24 4.4%
#25 4.4%
#26 2.8%
#27 8.1%
#28 22.3%
#29 25.1%
#30 0.2%
#31 6.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     8.2%
#19     12.0%
#20   0.0% 19.7%
#21   1.4% 19.7%
#22   5.4% 14.8%
#23   11.7% 13.5%
#24   12.7% 4.9%
#25   11.7% 5.9%
#26   9.7% 1.3%
#27   32.4%  
#28 37.5% 14.3%  
#29 49.8% 0.7%  
#30 0.4%    
#31 12.3%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ferris State #26 5.9%
#27 44.0%
#28 39.8%
#29 9.6%
#30 0.7%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
St. Lawrence #24 0.0%
#25 0.1%
#26 22.4%
#27 28.3%
#28 29.4%
#29 16.7%
#30 3.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Nebraska-Omaha #29 20.3%
#30 47.8%
#31 20.8%
#32 11.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Michigan #21 0.0%
#22 0.2%
#23 1.8%
#24 6.5%
#25 8.8%
#26 7.5%
#27 3.8%
#28 8.0%
#29 11.0%
#30 2.4%
#31 1.1%
#32 0.6%
Non-TUC 48.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#21     0.1%
#22     0.8%
#23     7.0%
#24     26.0%
#25     35.4%
#26     30.1%
#27   14.5% 0.6%
#28   32.0%  
#29   43.8%  
#30   9.7%  
#31 2.2%    
#32 1.1%    
Non-TUC 96.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut #21 0.2%
#22 0.3%
#23 1.5%
#24 3.6%
#25 6.8%
#26 7.8%
#27 4.8%
#28 0.0%
#29 8.3%
#30 12.2%
#31 2.0%
#32 2.5%
Non-TUC 50.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#21     0.8%
#22     1.2%
#23     6.2%
#24     14.3%
#25     27.1%
#26     31.0%
#27     19.3%
#28      
#29   33.3%  
#30   48.9%  
#31   8.0%  
#32   9.9%  
Non-TUC 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Holy Cross #29 8.9%
#30 33.5%
#31 46.1%
#32 11.4%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

8 thoughts on “Remaining possible outcomes after Thursday night.”

  1. So who are some teams that Sioux fans should be cheering for or against so that we finish higher in the PairWise since we no longer have any control over our destiny?

  2. Great question… it depends where people think it’s more advantageous to finish. I can figure out what it takes (for example) to finish a 2 seed instead of a 3 seed, but it’s not yet clear what the implications of each would be. We should know more tomorrow night.

    In terms of maximizing UND’s PWR (which may not be our goal anymore!): UW over SCSU, Michigan over Notre Dame (can any Sioux fan really cheer for this?), and Connecticut or Mercyhurst over Niagara are the outcomes that seem to have the most upside for UND’s PWR.

  5. Since the fun thing about these is finding unlikely scenarios, the 0.0 is only included when a possibility is just slightly more than 0; actual 0’s are instead blank, so you’re correct in reading that 0.0 on #13 for St Cloud as possible.

    To avoid confusion about very unlikely but possible scenarios, I write =99.95% be rounded up to 100%. Now fixed to show >99.9% instead. Thanks!

  6. Here’s one example:

    http://goo.gl/2DHV8

    The biggest jump comes from getting Connecticut out of being a TUC so that 1-3 record gets dropped from their TUC comparisons. But, to get all the way to a tournament berth requires quite a few other little things to go right.

  7. Glad you used our link shortener to link to the scenario, Jim 🙂 Also glad you found that, because I was up until 3 a.m. trying to find it and had no luck 🙂

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