UND needs wins to maintain its lofty ranking

#5 UND has climbed its way back into needing a sweep this weekend just to maintain its current ranking (Current PWR rankings).

Looking at UND’s PWR comparison details, NoDak has very limited upside potential this week. Only the Boston College comparison is obviously within reach, but UND is already ahead of BC in the ranking because of the RPI tie-breaker, so flipping that comparison may not even result in a ranking increase.

UND’s PWR comparisons and RPI details reveal a significant downside, however. The RPI value of winning these games is only .5784, not significantly different enough from UND’s RPI of .5455 to budge it much. The RPI value of losing is .3284, enough to drag down UND’s RPI a fair amount. The PWR comparison details reveal that UND is winning a number of comparisons only by a slim RPI lead (Naigara .5427, Mass.-Lowell .5448, Western Michigan .5384, St Cloud St .5412, and Dartmouth .5216).

Weekend games with the largest effect on UND’s PWR:

Outcome Number of
games		 Average effect
on UND’s PWR
North Dakota over Bemidji State (2 of 2) 4.60
North Dakota over Bemidji State (1 of 2) 2.17
Merrimack over Mass.-Lowell (2 of 2) 1.05
Providence over Boston College (2 of 2) 1.05
Merrimack over Mass.-Lowell (1 of 2) 0.93
Air Force over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.92
Air Force over Niagara (1 of 2) 0.73
Alaska Anchorage over Alaska (2 of 2) 0.70

I did a minimum quick update on UND this week because I’m a little late and last week’s UND closes in on NCAA tournament berth was so comprehensive. However, if there’s anything else you’d like to see or any particular questions you have, just let me know!

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

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3 thoughts on “UND needs wins to maintain its lofty ranking”

  1. What would have to happen in the Gopher/New Hampshire/Miami games for us to move up (assuming we sweep of course). Would any one of those teams have to get swepts for us to move; or would a split do the job.

  2. A sweep for UND will only raise our RPI to about .5474 (all other things equal).

    At a 1-3 comparison, Minnesota is the only of the three that UND could take on RPI alone. Unfortunately, even if swept, I’m only seeing the Gophers fall to about .5554 RPI so that’s very unlikely. We already have COP and can’t flip H2H. We could take TUC if Minnesota got swept and fell to .5556, but at 2-2 they’d still have the tie-breaker.

    With a split UNH comes in around .5438 RPI, so that could be good enough for UND to take that criterion. We’re not taking COP because Bemidji St. comes into play and UNH is 1-0 vs. them, so even if we sweep we can’t overtake them. TUC is very close, currently .5600 vs .5952. Neither of us play TUCs, so it’s all about the cliff.

    With a split Miami comes in around .5528, probably not within range of UND. Getting swept is more like .5459, so that could be good enough for UND (but is getting a little close to be sure). No remaining games vs. COPs scheduled for either team. While Miami is playing a TUC, sweeping Ohio St. could knock them out of being a TUC; that would actually hurt Miami’s TUC score because they’re already 2-0-1 vs. Ohio St.

    Bottom line — with a sweep, UND can take RPI on UNH if they split; with Miami if Miami gets swept. However, for both, we’d also need some external TUC cliff help.

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