Denver is well-positioned to make the NCAA tournament. Winning a game or two would make it a near certainty, though losing in the opening round would still leave the Pioneers with a better than 50% chance of advancing.
| PWR | Win 0 | Win 1 | Win 2 | Win 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.4% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.8% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 25.4% |
| 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 9.8% |
| 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| 9 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 1.3% | 7.3% | 39.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 12.1% | 28.1% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 37.3% | 41.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 36.0% | 19.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 13.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Because Denver has some potential rankings that are on the bubble, Denver does have an interest in a limited number of conferences being won by teams that won’t be in the top 16. Lists of those are available in previous articles, such as A detailed look at NMU’s chances.
Case-by-case possibilities for Denver’s PWR
Because Denver still have games to play, those are the biggest determinants of Denver’s final ranking.
If Denver makes it to the championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud, the Pioneers will finish at worst #12, good enough to make the NCAA tournament (since the WCHA will be won by a team in the top 16).
| PWR | Lose Championship |
Win Championship |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.00% | 7.50% |
| 4 | 0.00% | 20.04% |
| 5 | 0.00% | 31.32% |
| 6 | 0.07% | 27.87% |
| 7 | 1.28% | 11.75% |
| 8 | 6.47% | 1.49% |
| 9 | 23.29% | 0.03% |
| 10 | 41.14% | 0.00% |
| 11 | 24.77% | 0.00% |
| 12 | 2.99% | 0.00% |
However, if Denver makes it to the championship game vs. UND, the Pioneers could finish #13 if they lose. Again, the WCHA would be won by a team in the top 16, so the only way #13 would miss is if all the other conferences were won by teams outside the top 16. Though possible, that’s a very unlikely scenario — in outcomes in which the Pioneers face UND in the championship game and lose, about .3% of them leave Denver out of the NCAA tournament.
| PWR | Lose Championship |
Win Championship |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 5717 |
| 4 | 0 | 10894 |
| 5 | 0 | 12259 |
| 6 | 0 | 6597 |
| 7 | 17 | 1397 |
| 8 | 295 | 0 |
| 9 | 2980 | 0 |
| 10 | 11967 | 0 |
| 11 | 17097 | 0 |
| 12 | 4378 | 0 |
| 13 | 130 | 0 |
If Denver wins its opening game but then loses to Duluth, #12-#14 are distinctly possible. In that scenario, Denver would care most about tournaments being won by teams in the top 16 so #12 and #13 make the tournament. Paradoxically, in terms of final PWR ranking, Denver would be most helped in this situation by St. Cloud St knocking off UND (though there then would be the accompanying risk of SCSU taking the WCHA championship and a slot). Denver is currently holding onto the UND comparison by an RPI thread.
| PWR | Likelihood |
|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% |
| 10 | 7.3% |
| 11 | 28.1% |
| 12 | 41.5% |
| 13 | 19.2% |
| 14 | 3.8% |
Finally, if Denver loses the opening round, the Pioneers are most likely to finish #12-#14 (as can be seen in the table at the top of this article). In those situations, Denver would again mostly he hoping teams in the top 16 win all the conferences.
There are, otherwise, a lot of combinations that land Denver in the 9-12 range instead of 13-14. Most reliable is Miami defeating Western Michigan and Harvard defeating Cornell.
| PWR | Likelihood |
|---|---|
| 10 | 2.3% |
| 11 | 23.3% |
| 12 | 63.3% |
| 13 | 11.0% |
My apologies for any omissions, this one was a bit rushed to get it out before the games begin!