Final PWR predictions Friday morning update

The first two of the weekend’s games have been completed with one surprise outcome. Neither outcome shifted many teams’ fortunes except the teams involved.

I added Bemidji State because of their meteoric rise with last night’s win. They won’t make the NCAA tournament at large, so the Beavers’ only hope is to win it all.

CC has removed most of their downside, with an NCAA tournament appearance now seeming more likely than not. One win won’t shift their fortunes much and two earns an autobid, rendering their PWR meaningless. Remember that #16 in the PWR won’t make it at-large, because the Atlantic Hockey autobid will take the final slot. If CC falls short of winning the WCHA, they will join Nebraska-Omaha in watching Northeastern, Cornell, and Colgate closely, hoping none win their conference tournament and steal an NCAA bid from #15 or even #14 in PWR.

Duluth’s loss locked in their “worst case” scenario, which is making the tournament as a 3-seed.

AA’s loss knocked them out of contention for the NCAA tournament.

Team PWR Overall Lose all remaining Win all remaining
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Yale 1 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 1
North Dakota 2 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 2 1 to 2
Boston College 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3
Michigan 4 2 to 10 3 to 10 4 to 10 4 to 10 2 to 5 3 to 5
Miami 5 3 to 10

3 to 10

5 to 10 5 to 10 3 to 4 3 to 4
Merrimack 6 4 to 10 4 to 10 6 to 10 7 to 10 4 to 5 4 to 5
Denver 7 4 to 10 4 to 9 5 to 10 5 to 9 4 to 6 4 to 6
Union 8 5 to 10

6 to 9

n/a n/a n/a n/a
Notre Dame 9 4 to 15 4 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 8 4 to 8
Minnesota-Duluth 10 7 to 11 8 to 11 n/a n/a n/a n/a
New Hampshire 11 4 to 15 5 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 10 5 to 10
Western Michigan 12 10 to 19 10 to 19 12 to 19 13 to 19 10 to 13 10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha 13 12 to 16 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Colorado College 14 10 to 16 10 to 16 12 to 16 12 to 16 10 to 15 10 to 15
Dartmouth 15 10 to 22 11 to 21 15 to 22 16 to 21 10 to 15 11 to 14
Rensselaer 16 11 to 17 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Boston University 17 14 to 18 15 to 17 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Maine 18 14 to 20 16 to 19 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Alaska Anchorage 20 19 to 23 20 to 23 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Bemidji State 22 17 to 28 18 to 27 22 to 28 22 to 27 17 to 20 18 to 20

Note — Michigan appears to have more upside potential if it “loses all remaining” than in the previous table. That’s actually a reflection of the possibility of a tie in the consolation game, which the previous table did not include.

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