Category: Men’s Hockey

At the beginning of the season, I gave you my predicted order of finish in the WCHA:

1. Denver
2. North Dakota
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. St. Cloud State
6. MSU-Mankato
7. Minnesota-Duluth
8. Colorado College
9. Alaska-Anchorage
10. Michigan Tech

And here’s how the race stacks up heading into this weekend’s action:

WCHA 2009-10 Current Standings

It is worth noting that while the majority of teams have twelve games remaining, Wisconsin and Minnesota have fourteen games left to play. Amazingly, only five points separate the top six teams in the standings. More impressively, the top nine teams can still finish with a winning record in league play.

So far, the biggest surprises to me have been Minnesota-Duluth and Minnesota. In my season preview, I said this about the Bulldogs:

How will goaltender Brady Hjelle (two games of collegiate experience) handle the load for the Bulldogs after Stalock bolted for the pros? Duluth will score in bunches this season, but their opponents will, too. The WCHA is not kind to freshman defensemen, but Dylan Olsen and Dan DeLisle will have to hold their own for UMD to secure home ice.

The combination of Hjelle (8-4-1, 2.94 GAA, .902 SV%) and junior Kenny Reiter (6-3-0, 2.14 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO) has worked well for Scott Sandelin’s club. But the story has been the offense: UMD is scoring 3.62 goals per game in conference play, and the power play is clicking at almost 25 percent. But a tough second half on the road and a suspect penalty kill have me wondering if Duluth will end up in the top five.

Minnesota, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency in net and up front. The Gophers have a tough second half ahead of them and will need to get things going this weekend against North Dakota if they hope to be playing at Mariucci in March.

We will have a very interesting race for the league title. Take a look at the remaining opponents for the top six teams:

Denver: @ UW (2), @UND (2), vs. UMN (2), vs.MTU (2), @ MSUM (2), vs. CC (1), @ CC (1)
Minnesota-Duluth: @ MSUM (2), vs. UW (2), @ MTU (2), @ UND (2), vs. UMN (2), @ UAA (2)
St. Cloud State: vs. UMN (1), @ UMN (1), @ CC (2), vs. UAA (2), vs. UND (2), @ UW (2), @ MSUM (1), vs. MSUM (1)
Colorado College: vs. UW (2), @ UAA (2), vs. SCSU (2), @ UMN (2), vs. UND (2), @ DU (1), vs. DU (1)
Wisconsin: @ CC (2), vs. DU (2), @ UMD (2), vs. MSUM (2), vs. SCSU (2), @ MTU (2), @ UMN (2)
North Dakota: @UMN (2), vs. DU (2), @ SCSU (2), vs. UMD (2), @ CC (2), vs. MTU (2)

North Dakota plays eight of its final twelve games against the top four teams in the league. A tough test, to be sure, but also a great opportunity to move up in the standings.

Wisconsin is the only team in the mix with an extra pair of games to play, and they’re also playing two each against the four teams above them.

Colorado College ends the year with a home-and-home against Denver in a series that may well determine whether CC hangs on for a home playoff series.

St. Cloud State has to finish up with three of their last four on the road, but will be in the mix for home ice.

Minnesota-Duluth plays eight of their final twelve conference games on the road, away from the pinball action of the DECC.

Denver has been the league’s most consistent team throughout the first half. If DU can make it out of a tough January (at Wisconsin, at North Dakota) in first place, the Pioneers will win the MacNaughton Cup.

If I had to predict how the race would play out, I would put them in this order:

1. Denver
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. North Dakota
5. St. Cloud State
6. Colorado College

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

It’s a long held belief that in the eyes of PWR, some games are more valuable than others. In particular, record against non-conference opponents is often cited as critical (including in last year’s Swept at the GLI — how harmful to PWR? post in which I noted that the number of scenarios in which UND could finish oh, say, 8th, had fallen from 22% of all scenarios to 5% of all scenarios). That belief stems from the “common opponents” comparison, which for teams in different conferences can be dependent on just a few games that were played between teams in those two conferences.

In case you haven’t been paying attention, UND has a decent out-of-conference record this year, with 3/4 of the scheduled non-conference games already in the books. That got me wondering: 1) how UND’s interconference performance this year compared to past years, and 2) if there really were pronounced shifts in PWR based on any differences.

Without further ado…

That’s not quite what I expected. For example, comparing 08-09 to 06-07 — UND had pretty different out-of-conference records, pretty similar overall records, and pretty similar PWR rankings. That holds true eyeballing the (admittedly small) sample — UND’s PWR seems to roughly rise and fall with its overall record, with no obvious indication that the out-of-conference record is a strong contributor.  Again: that’s a very non-scientific glance and a very small sample, but it’s what I have.

Another dead end I traveled down was trying to extend that idea to if an entire conference’s interconference record noticeably influences how many of its teams made the NCAA tournament (this one started on even shakier ground, in that the conference would clearly be better off with its interconference wins all consolidated in one group of teams and losses in another, the distribution of which I omit from this eyeball analysis).  Hat tip to CollegeHockeyNews.com interconference records for the raw data.

Once again, if there’s anything there, it’s not particularly obvious.

In that “Swept at the GLI” article referenced above, I went in with the assumption that losing to out-of-conference opponents was a really big deal and let the data confirm that prior.  However, as we saw through the rest of the Spring (e.g. PWR Forecast Feb. 19, vs Denver), in-conference games later in the season often had similar, if not greater, impacts.

Bottom line? Logically, wins against other conferences clearly matter a lot; it’s easy to construct scenarios where flipping a single win to a loss (or vice versa) pushes a team up or down a few slots in the PWR. However, there’s no particular evidence that a team’s or conference’s fortunes rise and fall with interconference results to quite the extent a lot of us assume.

Bonus – for sticking around and proving you really like PWR, here’s a preview of my new Team PWR details page (that will eventually replace these). Much easier to scan and see which could flip based on which criterion.

Both North Dakota and MSU-Mankato have seen a switch flip in the first half, but it could be said that the teams are headed in opposite directions….

For the Mavericks, the first half of the first half (if that makes any sense) was a struggle. MSUM went 1-6-1 in their first eight league games and found themselves on the bottom looking up. Since then, the Mavs have gone 4-2-0 in WCHA play and are coming off of a non-conference sweep of RIT, outscoring the Tigers 9-1.

For North Dakota, the first half can be summed up in two words: Chay Genoway. With Chay in the lineup, UND bolted out of the gates with a 7-1-1 overall record. Since his injury on November 13th against St. Cloud State, the Fighting Sioux have struggled with a 3-5-3 mark. All five of those losses came by a single goal. It was indeed a very unlucky Friday the 13th for the men in green.

This weekend there are some interesting lineup moves to watch on both benches. UND head coach Dave Hakstol gets three forwards back: junior Matt Frattin (13-12-25 last season) returns from suspension, senior Darcy Zajac (4-6-10) has recovered from surgery, and freshman Danny Kristo (6-10-16) comes back from winning gold with Team USA at the World Junior Championships. Sophomore forward Brett Hextall (8-4-12) will miss the next four to six weeks with an undisclosed lower body injury. It will be interesting to see the line combinations up front for the Fighting Sioux.

For MSUM head coach Trot Jutting, the question mark is in net. Will he go with junior goaltender Austin Lee, who has played in 13 games and has been steady but not spectacular, or will he give the nod to freshman Phil Cook (3-0-1, 0.87 GAA, .967 SV%, 1 SO), last week’s WCHA Rookie of the Week?

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (10th season at MSUM, 153-171-46, .477)
This Season: 11-9-2 Overall, 5-8-1 WCHA (8th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: #23
Team Offense: 2.91 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.2% (20 of 116)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (103 of 121)
Last Season: 15-17-6 Overall, 11-13-4 WCHA (6th)
Key Players: Senior F Zach Harrison (5-14-19), Senior F Jerad Stewart (11-7-18), Junior F Rylan Galiardi (5-8-13), Junior D Ben Youds (0-18-18), Junior D Kurt Davis (3-9-12), Junior G Austin Lee (7-6-0, 2.63 GAA, .913 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 140-77-23, .631)
National Ranking: #5/#5
PairWise Ranking: #12
This Season: 10-6-4, 6-6-2 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.15 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.9% (27 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 86.7% (91 of 105)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (6-10-16), Freshman F Danny Kristo (6-10-16), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-13-18), Junior D Jake Marto (3-5-8), Sophomore D Ben Blood (3-3-6), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (9-5-3, 2.20 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 14th, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND). It was not a happy Valentines Day for the Mavericks, as North Dakota came from behind to beat visiting MSUM 4-3. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s series opener, 4-1.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 31-10-7 (.719), including a 19-6-3 (.732) record in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota is 8-1-1 in the last ten meetings between the teams. The Mavericks can leapfrog UND in the league standings with a sweep this weekend. North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway (4 goals and 6 assists in 9 games) is still suffering from an upper body injury and is not expected to play against MSUM. Mavs freshman G Phil Cook put together a strong weekend between the pipes last weekend, making 70 of 71 saves in a two-game sweep of RIT. Cook was named the WCHA Rookie of the Week. The Fighting Sioux have not done well in close contests this season, winning only one of seven games decided by a single goal.

The Prediction

It will be interesting to see how Dave Hakstol shuffles his forward lines, with Zajac, Kristo, and Frattin back in the mix and Hextall out for a few weeks. It might take some time for lines to gel, or it might not. UND 4-3, 3-1.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your thoughts, questions, and suggestions.

Earlier this year, USCHO raised eyebrows among college hockey geeks by beginning to publish bracketology articles on Nov.10.  USCHO justified expending the effort to predict what the tournament would look like had the season ended after just three weeks by claiming it was a natural response to other sites (no names named 😉 ) making PairWise Rankings available before USCHO’s typical January date.  While some may quibble that seeding a bracket is a different activity from letting an automatically calculated rankings table be published, I became most interested in the question, “when is the appropriate time to begin looking at PWR?”

The real answer is, obviously, whenever you’re interested in it.

My primary interest in looking at rankings is to see how each team is doing — who is good, who isn’t, who is likely to make the tournament?  The value of the rankings for that purpose is dependent on their stability.  A team ranked #1 in an accurate ranking should probably be able to lose a game and still be ranked in the top few teams.  So, my first tactic for determining the quality of the PWR rankings was to determine how much ranked teams move within the rankings from week-to-week.

Before December the PWR rankings have wild swings, though settle into an average move of 2-3 slots in January and under 2 slots by March (the low movement in late December is the holiday break in which teams play fewer games).

That’s interesting, but the actual pairwise comparisons are only meaningfully performed once, after the conference tournaments.  So, the reason we really look at the PWR earlier is to get an idea of who might make the tournament.  Therefore, to determine the quality of an individual week’s PWR we’re actually most interested in how well it predicts the final PWR.

Though PWR in January seemed somewhat stable, in that teams only move a couple of slots each week, as those movements add up it actually proves a pretty poor predictor of the final PWR.  Each team has been ranked an average of 3-8 slots differently on April 1 than in January over the past six years.  Even the March 1 PWR rankings have deviated from the April 1 rankings by an average of 2-4 slots.

So, enjoy looking at the weekly PWR tables, but remember that they’re all for fun.

A couple notes:

• April 1 isn’t quite the final PWR because some NCAA tournament games have been played by that date.
• The average movement in each of the above charts is mean movement of those teams that had PWR rankings in: 1) both weeks, and 2) the week in question and on April 1.  No attempt was made to determine variance, or whether that mean was overly influenced by a few large moves.

References/links of interest:

• USCHO’s Bracketology blog: http://www.uscho.com/blogs/uscho/bracketology
• SiouxSports.com PWR: http://siouxsports.com/rankings/pwr/
• CollegeHockyNews explanation of PWR: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

Last season almost ended with a glass slipper for the Bulldogs. Duluth went on the road in the first round of the WCHA playoffs and swept Colorado College before running the table at the WCHA Final Five, becoming the first team to win three games at the league’s post-season tournament. After defeating Princeton 5-4 in overtime (thanks to two goals in the final 40 seconds of regulation), the Bulldogs fell 2-1 to national runner-up Miami.

This season, UMD has not been swept in a weekend series and has won three conference games in a row (vs. Michigan Tech and a road sweep at Minnesota). North Dakota had to settle for a 5-5- tie with #1 Miami last weekend after defeating Ohio State in the tournament opener.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (10th season at UMD, 153-177-46, .468)
This Season:  9-4-1 Overall, 6-3-1 WCHA (3rd)
National Rankings: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: #7
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.5% (24 of 94)
Penalty Kill: 78.5% (62 of 79)
Last Season: 22-13-8 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 10-11-7 WCHA
Key Players: Sophomore F Jack Connolly (10-11-21), Junior F Justin Fontaine (11-9-20), Sophomore F Mike Connolly (5-9-14), Sophomore D Brady Lamb (5-3-8), Sophomore G Brady Hjelle (6-2-1, 2.86 GAA, .909 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 138-75-21, .635)
National Ranking: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: #9
This Season: 8-4-2, 5-4-1 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.93 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.1% (20 of 83)
Penalty Kill: 88.3% (68 of 77)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (4-9-13), Freshman F Danny Kristo (5-8-13), Junior F Evan Trupp (4-9-13), Sophomore D Ben Blood (1-3-4), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (7-3-2, 1.89 GAA, .920 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 20, 2009 (St. Paul, MN). Duluth continued to ride goaltender Alex Stalock on its improbable Final Five run, downing the Fighting Sioux 3-0 and advancing to its first Final Five championship in team history.

Last Meeting in Duluth: November 22, 2008. After beating UND just twice in the previous 20 meetings between the schools (2-16-2), the Bulldogs defeated UND 3-1. Duluth scored a goal in each period and Alex Stalock stopped 37 of 38 North Dakota shots.

Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 125-69-8 (.639), including a 52-37-4 (.580) record in games played in Duluth.

Game News and Notes

Bulldog sophomore F Jack Connolly leads the nation in scoring with 21 points. The Fighting Sioux scored just three goals in three games against Duluth last season. North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway (4 goals and 6 assists in 9 games) is still suffering from an upper body injury and is not expected to play against UMD.

The Prediction

UND should be content with a road split against an excellent team, and that’s what they’re getting. North Dakota will win a close one on Friday and the Bulldogs’ power play will click in Saturday’s finale. UND 3-2, UMD 5-2.

Bonus Prediction

I will be vacationing next week, and I will not be posting a full UND/Wisconsin preview. So here is your bonus prediction: This is not the defensive Badger squad that we’ve seen over the past few years; this year’s version is scoring almost four goals per game. North Dakota will be able to contain Bucky for much of the weekend, but the Badgers will squeeze out a point on Saturday night. UND 4-2, 4-4 tie.

What a difference one minute makes.

The Miami RedHawks led Boston University 3-1 with under one minute remaining in last season’s national championship game. The Terriers roared back, scoring two extra-attacker goals in the final 60 seconds of regulation. After almost twelve excruciating minutes of overtime, Colby Cohen’s shot deflected, looped, and dropped into the net, giving BU their fifth national championship.

Miami was one minute from hanging their first NCAA championship banner.

The RedHawks appear driven to finish what was left undone last season. Miami has lost just twice this season, both by one goal. Enrico Blasi’s squad is quick, deep, and talented, and North Dakota will need their best effort of the season to knock off the RedHawks.

Miami Team Profile

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (11th season at Miami, 219-153-37, .581)
This Season:  9-2-4 Overall, 6-1-3-1 CCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 2.87 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.80 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.5% (13 of 79)
Penalty Kill: 89.3% (75 of 84)
Last Season: 23-13-5 Overall (NCAA national runner-up), 17-7-4 CCHA
Key Players: Junior F Carter Camper (6-6-12), Senior F Jarod Palmer (5-8-13), Junior F Andy Miele (5-10-15), Freshman D Joe Hartman (3-3-6), Sophomore G Cody Reichard (8-1-2, 1.59 GAA, .927 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 138-75-20, .635)
National Ranking: #4/#4
This Season: 8-4-1, 5-4-1 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.69 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.4% (17 of 76)
Penalty Kill: 89.0% (65 of 73)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (4-9-13), Sophomore F David Toews (4-6-10) Junior F Evan Trupp (4-8-12), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-6-10), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (7-3-1, 1.63 GAA, .931 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 8, 2005 (Dayton, OH). North Dakota blanked Miami 3-0 in the opening game of the Lefty McFadden Invitational. Jordan Parise made 37 saves for the Fighting Sioux and helped UND kill all eleven RedHawk power plays.

Most Important Meeting: For the second game in a row, the most important meeting is the one about to be played. This matchup has far-reaching NCAA playoff implications.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 2-0-0. The teams have never played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

UND is 10-5-0 all-time in the Subway Holiday Classic. North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway is still out of the lineup after suffering an upper body injury against St. Cloud State. UND was 7-1-1 with Genoway in the lineup and are 1-3-0 in his absence with all three losses by one goal. Miami has already played six overtime games this season, going 1-1-4 in those games. North Dakota is 5-1-1 at home this season.

The Prediction

If the RedHawks can survive the opening period against UND, they will be tough to put away. Miami is 6-0-3 when scoring first and has outscored opponents 35-19 in the second and third periods this season. But the Ralph should be rocking on Saturday night, and the Fighting Sioux will grab an early lead and hold on in a nail-biter. UND 3-2.

Bonus Prediction

Bemidji State is for real, and will be a top-eight team in the NCAAs. Ohio State will change goaltenders, and it won’t matter. BSU 3-1.

North Dakota and Ohio State have not met for almost 30 years, and it’s safe to say that the result will be a bit closer this time around. When the teams met for a two game non-conference series in December of 1979, UND outscored the Buckeyes 15-4 on the weekend. And in the “what might have been” category, both the Fighting Sioux and OSU participated in last season’s NCAA Northeast Regional tournament, but neither team could advance to the regional final.

Ohio State has shown early signs of life (a 4-0 shutout of Denver stands out), but is absolutely dreadful in special teams situations. In an almost identical number of power play and shorthanded situations, the Buckeyes have scored 9 goals and allowed 22. By comparison, UND has scored 16 power play goals and allowed only 8 to the opposition. OSU would certainly like to keep things five-on-five on Friday night.

North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway will miss this weekend’s action. Genoway is still recovering from an upper body injury he suffered against St. Cloud State on November 13th. UND has not won a game since Genoway left the lineup.

This weekend’s Subway Holiday Classic will use four pre-determined matchups, rather than a tournament format. OSU will battle Bemidji State on Saturday afternoon, while North Dakota will face Miami of Ohio (the nation’s #1 team) on Saturday night. Check back for a preview of North Dakota and Miami later this weekend.

Ohio State Team Profile

Head Coach: John Markell (16th season at OSU, 270-257-51, .511)
This Season:  5-8-1 Overall, 4-5-1-1 CCHA (t-5th)
National Rankings: NR
Team Offense: 2.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.07 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.8% (9 of 76)
Penalty Kill: 71.4% (55 of 77)
Last Season: 23-15 4 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist , 13-11-4 CCHA
Key Players: Junior F John Albert (3-7-10), Junior F Peter Boyd (4-8-12), Sophomore F Zac Dalpe (8-8-16), Junior D Shane Sims (2-5-7), Sophomore G Cal Heeter (4-2-1, 3.05 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 137-75-20, .634)
National Ranking: #4/#4
This Season: 7-4-1, 5-4-1 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.08 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.75 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (16 of 72)
Penalty Kill: 88.4% (61 of 69)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (4-8-12), Sophomore F David Toews (4-6-10) Junior F Evan Trupp (4-6-10), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-6-10), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (6-3-1, 1.69 GAA, .929 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 21st, 1979 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota completed the two-game sweep of the visiting Buckeyes, 7-2. UND routed OSU 8-2 in Friday’s opener.

Most Important Meeting: Since the teams haven’t played in 30 years, I will call Friday’s opener the most important. North Dakota needs a victory after dropping three consecutive one-goal contests.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series, 2-0.

Game News and Notes

UND is 9-5-0 all-time in the Subway Holiday Classic. Ohio State forward Hunter Bishop will celebrate a homecoming of sorts when he takes the ice against UND on Friday. Bishop played the first half of his freshman year for the Fighting Sioux. The Buckeyes rank dead last in the CCHA in both power play and penalty kill percentage. North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway is still out of the lineup after suffering an upper body injury against St. Cloud State. UND was 7-1-1 with Genoway in the lineup and are 0-3-0 in his absence (3 one-goal losses).

The Prediction

North Dakota is hungry for a victory and will not be denied. The only thing in question is the final score. If OSU can play at even strength, they will keep it close. If it’s a parade to the penalty box, it’ll go down as a rout. UND 4-1.

Bonus Prediction

In the early game, Bemidji State will have the benefit of a partisan crowd, and will need to capitalize early. This one feels like a one-goal game either way, and I give the edge to the Beavers. BSU 3-2.

Which Pioneers team will show up this weekend?  The squad that went into Mariucci and swept the Gophers by identical 3-0 scores, or the club that gave up nine goals in a road series at Anchorage and barely came out with a split?

Much has been made of the players who won’t or might not skate this weekend. UND’s top defenseman, senior Chay Genoway (upper body injury) will not play in this series, and DU’s top goaltender, Marc Cheverie (leg injury) and top defenseman, sophomore Patrick Wiercioch (knee), are both questionable for the weekend. Furthermore, Denver senior defenseman Cody Brookwell, the team’s biggest defenseman (6’4″, 220 lbs.) has been sick and may miss Friday’s opener. But there will be plenty of talent on the ice and plenty on the line this weekend at Magness Arena (Denver. CO).

Sophomore defenseman Corey Fienhage will need to step up in Genoway’s absence, and Denver freshman goaltender Adam Murray (2-3-1, 4.36 GAA, .838 SV%) will need to play better if Cheverie misses any more time.

And this from the Denver Post: DU is coming off a bye week and begins final exams today. Many Pioneers will miss today’s and Saturday’s pregame skates because of finals.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (16th season at DU, 352-220-47, .607)
This Season:  6-3-1 Overall, 4-1-1 WCHA (t-3rd)
National Rankings: #3/#3
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.5% (10 of 57)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (44 of 51)
Last Season: 23-12-5 Overall (NCAA West Regional semifinalist), 16-8-4 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Senior F Rhett Rakhshani (7-5-12), Senior F Tyler Ruegsegger (5-5-10), Junior F Anthony Maiani (1-3-4), Sophomore D Patrick Wiercioch (2-7-9) Junior G Marc Cheverie (4-0-0, 1.27 GAA, .959 SV%, 3 SO)

 North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 137-73-20, .639)
National Ranking: #2/#2
This Season: 7-2-1, 5-2-1 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.70 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.7% (14 of 59)
Penalty Kill: 92.2% (47 of 51)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (3-8-11), Sophomore F David Toews (4-6-10) Junior F Evan Trupp (4-5-9), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-6-10), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (6-1-1, 1.61 GAA, .925 SV%, 1 SO)

 By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 24, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND).  In a game remembered more for Gwozdecky’s antics on the dasher and on the ice, Denver twice came back to tie UND and the final score read 2-2.  Brad Eidsness made 38 saves to preserve one point for the Fighting Sioux.  A night earlier, North Dakota rolled, 8-3.

Last Meeting in Denver: December 1, 2007.  #8 North Dakota took game two from #3 Denver, 3-1, after falling 1-0 in the opener.  Ryan Duncan netted two goals and assisted on the third goal for the Fighting Sioux.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 129-110-8 (.538), while Denver holds a 64-49-3 (.565) edge in games played in Denver.  The two teams have split the last two weekend series at Magness Arena.

Game News and Notes

In the past seven meetings between the two teams, the Fighting Sioux have killed 40 of 45 Pioneer power play opportunities.  UND is 5-2-1 in the past eight games against the Pioneers, outscoring DU 26-15.  After five seasons of second-half surges, this year’s North Dakota team is off to its fastest start in the Dave Hakstol era with a 7-2-2 record.  Vegas oddsmakers are offering 6 to 5 that Denver head coach George Gwozdecky stands on the dasher at least once this weekend.

The Prediction

It will take a while for UND to adjust to altitude, and Denver will take advantage.  Look for a fair number of power plays on Friday night, as North Dakota will commit several hooking and holding violations.  On Saturday, the Fighting Sioux will respond in kind. DU 4-2, UND 3-1.

An Invitation from fightingsioux.com: The UND Alumni Association will be hosting a pre-game party prior to Saturday’s game. The celebration is from 5 to 6:30 p.m. at the Embassy Suites Denver Southeast and will feature remarks from UND President Dr. Robert Kelley and First Lady Marcia Kelley. A $10 admission price includes hors d’oeuvres and door prizes. A cash bar will also be available. For more information, contact Katie Compton at katiec@undalumni.net or at 800-543-8764.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

It started with a good article in the Grand Forks Herald on UND’s home attendance that suggested a link to UND’s (thereby jinxed) home winning streak. A big home ice advantage did mention a home advantage, but only included home winning percentages as supporting evidence. That’s fine, you don’t expect in-depth statistical analysis in a newspaper article that: is trying to make a different point, has a limited word count, and is targeted toward a non-statistical audience.

However, USCHO then ran with the idea of a piece on home advantage, but used home winning percentage to compare “home ice advantage” across teams. Given that, This Week in the WCHA unsurprisingly found that the best teams of the past decade had the largest “advantage” and the worst teams the smallest. They were interesting statistics, but I would argue that they compared teams’ home success, not home advantage.

The problem (for those who missed my Forum post on the topic) is that home winning percentage isn’t really the same thing as home ice advantage. The advantage of home ice is not how well you do at home, but how much BETTER you do at home.

Sticking with winning as the measure for now, here’s how each WCHA team did in WCHA play at home and on the road from the 2001-02 season through the 2008-09 season.

That’s still not quite a perfect measure of home advantage, but as a comparison between performance at home vs. on the road, it’s quite a bit closer.

Anyone who wants to keep the ball rolling by writing a followup critical of this post should start with these caveats:

• To read this table as measure of home ice advantage would be to pretend that away games are neutral, whereas they instead actually include some home advantage for the opponent
• It doesn’t correct for strength-of-schedule (e.g. the measure would be distorted if a team scheduled tough opponents at home and cupcakes on the road)
• It compares only WCHA games
  • This is useful because it actually corrects a little bit for the above two. The WCHA schedule over 8 seasons is somewhat round-robin (though not perfectly so, due to the “rivals” system)
  • However, home advantage could be different when hosting non-conference foes less familiar with a team and its venue
• I’ve never actually seen anyone try to measure home advantage using win%, it’s usually measured in points scored or scoring differential. So, there may be more problems with this measure that I’m not thinking of right now.

Here’s a quick look, for UND only, at how things would change with different sets of games counted.

This seems to support one of my criticisms above of only including WCHA games — UND’s home advantage is a bit higher hosting non-conference opponents.

One additional point about this table — I was never able to come up with selection criteria that precisely matched the records cited by the USCHO and Herald articles. Focusing on ties, for example, I count 17 total home ties since 2001-02 (18 if you include the tie vs. Minnesota in 2009-10), whereas USCHO and the Herald cite 21 home ties. I compared the schedules at SiouxSports.com, FightingSioux.com, and CollegeHockeyStats.net (see useful summaries at bottom), but couldn’t figure it out. If anyone has any theories or explanations, I’d love to hear them and will cheerfully make any necessary corrections.

Resources

• A big home ice advantage – Grand Forks Herald
• This Week in the WCHA – USCHO
• UND Hockey schedules/results — SiouxSports.com
• UND Hockey schedules/results — FightingSioux.com
• UND Hockey schedules/results — CollegeHockeyStats.net
• While we were bemoaning REA atmosphere… — forum.siouxsports.com thread

This could be a difficult stretch for St. Cloud State. Before Christmas, the Huskies will play two games each at North Dakota, Denver, and Alaska-Anchorage and home series against Wisconsin and Colorado College. The trip to UAA is never easy, and their other four 2009 opponents sport a combined record of 21-9-4.

SCSU has had an uneven season so far, going unbeaten (2-0-2) at home while winning only one game on the road (1-3-0). Garrett Roe has been a bright spot up front for the Huskies (two goals and eight points in eight games), but he will serve a suspension on Friday night for an unspecified violation of team rules.

North Dakota has come out firing, with only a 2-1 setback at Anchorage spoiling an otherwise stellar record (6-1-1). UND enjoys a huge advantage in special teams play, and boasts scoring depth and a gigantic home-ice edge. The Fighting Sioux began their current 16 game home unbeaten streak (13-0-3) with a sweep against the Huskies in December 2008.

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. The Cup will be awarded in St. Cloud on February 13, 2010. North Dakota has won at least a share of the Challenge Cup each of the past three seasons.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 5th season at SCSU, 84-63-21, .563)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 3-3-2, 2-1-1 WCHA
Last Season: 18-17-3 overall, 13-13-2 WCHA (6th)
Team Offense: 2.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.4% (9 of 49)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (27 of 32)
Key Players: Junior F Garrett Roe (2-6-8), Junior F Tony Mosey (3-3-6), Senior F Ryan Lasch (2-1-3), Senior D Craig Gaudet (1-3-4), Junior G Dan Dunn (2-1-0, 1.98 GAA, .924 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 136-72-20, .640)
National Ranking: #2/#2
This Season: 6-1-1, 4-1-1 WCHA
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.62 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 26.0% (13 of 50)
Penalty Kill: 92.7% (38 of 41)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (2-7-9), Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (5-0-5), Junior F Evan Trupp (4-4-8), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-6-10), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (5-1-1, 1.70 GAA, .915 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 31, 2009 (St. Cloud, MN). North Dakota rebounds to defeat St. Cloud State 4-2 after suffering their first shutout loss of the season in Friday’s opener (3-0). Senior captain Ryan Duncan scored the game-winner for the Fighting Sioux.
Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 13, 2008. Brett Hextall scored the game-winner with five seconds remaining in the second period as North Dakota defeated St. Cloud 7-4. UND won the opener, 3-2.
Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 50-27-10 (.632), and holds a record of 26-11-5 (.679) in games played in Grand Forks. The Huskies are 3-8-3 in games played in the new Ralph Engelstad Arena since it opened in 2001.

Game News and Notes

The Sioux are 19-12-3 all-time on Friday the 13th and have lost just once in their last nine games (6-1-2) on Paraskavedekatriaphobia Day. Last season UND defeated Minnesota State University – Mankato 4-1 on Friday, February 13th. North Dakota has not lost in its last 16 home contests (13-0-3). UND’s penalty kill is the second best in the country. Huskies leading scorer Garrett Roe will miss Friday’s series opener due to a violation of team rules. SCSU head coach Bob Motzko would not elaborate on the suspension.

The Prediction

North Dakota will continue its home unbeaten streak, but it won’t be easy. Both teams will need to strike a balance between playing a physical brand of hockey and staying our of the penalty box. SCSU will keep both games close and will steal at least one point this weekend. UND 3-2, 2-2 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, and the Challenge Cup will be on display. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

I thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.