Month: March 2011

Here they are, my picks for the Frozen Four from each regional:

West Regional Final: Boston College over Nebraska-Omaha

Midwest Regional Final: North Dakota over Denver

Northeast Regional Final: New Hampshire over Merrimack

East Regional Final: Yale over Minnesota-Duluth

Feel free to add your own or let me know how many I get wrong. As always, thanks for reading!

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH	West	Game 1	Game 2 (Region Champ)	Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)	Game 4 (National Champ)
79.8926	1. Boston College	68.66%	42.72%	22.63%	13.81%
36.4671	4. Colorado Collage	31.34%	13.48%	4.70%	1.97%
55.0304	2. Michigan	57.52%	26.95%	11.90%	6.19%
40.6427	3. Nebraska Omaha	42.48%	16.85%	6.27%	2.79%
	Midwest
100	1. North Dakota	81.39%	54.59%	34.39%	22.75%
22.8697	4. Rensselaer	18.61%	6.02%	1.73%	0.54%
59.5685	2. Denver	64.04%	28.07%	14.21%	7.67%
33.4557	3. Western Michigan	35.96%	11.31%	4.17%	1.66%
	Northeast
56.1059	1. Miami (OH)	60.12%	33.87%	17.49%	7.86%
37.2172	4. New Hampshire	39.88%	18.39%	7.67%	2.72%
43.2361	2. Merrimack	49.70%	23.66%	10.72%	4.16%
43.7543	3. Notre Dame	50.30%	24.09%	10.98%	4.29%
	East
64.4313	1. Yale	83.12%	48.35%	28.17%	13.59%
13.0846	4. Air Force	16.88%	3.74%	0.83%	0.14%
38.8342	2. Union	42.46%	18.63%	8.53%	3.10%
52.6189	3. Minnesota Duluth	57.54%	29.28%	15.60%	6.77%

Other than the AHA champ, Cornell is the only possible non-top 16 autobid , so #14 in PWR will make it. #15 will if Cornell loses.

In the NCAA tournament: Yale, UND, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union, Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan

In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI)

In: Autobid goes to Winner of Air Force/RIT

Out: Maine, Dartmouth, BU

A little more on UNO vs. CC vs. RPI (remember, which only matters if Cornell beats Yale, otherwise all three are in) —
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Michigan or Notre Dame wins — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan beats Notre Dame — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan –- RPI is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Miami beats Western Michigan — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out

Team	PWR Possibilitieis
	Overall	Win none	Win all
Yale	1 100%	1 100%	1 100%
UND	2 75% 3 25%	2 50% 3 50%	2 100%
Boston College	2 25% 3 75%	3 100%	2 50% 3 50%
Michigan	4 6% 5 16% 6 11% 7 23% 8 44%	7 21% 8 79%	4 13% 5 37% 6 25% 7 25%
Miami	4 57% 5 20% 6 18% 7 5%	4 14% 5 40% 6 36% 7 11%	4 100%
Denver	4 13% 5 39% 6 26% 7 22%	5 28% 6 28% 7 44%	4 25% 5 50% 6 25%
UMD	9 56% 10 44%	n/a	n/a
Merrimack	4 25% 5 25% 6 45% 7 5%	6 89% 7 11%	4 50% 5 50%
Union	7 44% 8 56%	n/a	n/a
Notre Dame	9 44% 10 6% 11 50%	10 10% 11 90%	9 100%
New Hampshire	12 63% 13 27% 14 10%	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	10 50% 11 50%	10 44% 11 56%	10 56% 11 44%
Nebraska-Omaha	12 22% 13 38% 14 24% 15 16%	n/a	n/a
CC	13 25% 14 53% 15 22%	n/a	n/a
Dartmouth	16 44% 17 4% 18 8% 19 44%	17 8% 18 14% 19 78%	16 100%
Rensselaer	12 15% 13 10% 14 13% 15 63%	n/a	n/a
Boston University	16 56% 17 44%	n/a	n/a
Maine	17 52% 18 48%	n/a	n/a
AA	20 50% 21 50%	n/a	n/a

The first two of the weekend’s games have been completed with one surprise outcome. Neither outcome shifted many teams’ fortunes except the teams involved.

I added Bemidji State because of their meteoric rise with last night’s win. They won’t make the NCAA tournament at large, so the Beavers’ only hope is to win it all.

CC has removed most of their downside, with an NCAA tournament appearance now seeming more likely than not. One win won’t shift their fortunes much and two earns an autobid, rendering their PWR meaningless. Remember that #16 in the PWR won’t make it at-large, because the Atlantic Hockey autobid will take the final slot. If CC falls short of winning the WCHA, they will join Nebraska-Omaha in watching Northeastern, Cornell, and Colgate closely, hoping none win their conference tournament and steal an NCAA bid from #15 or even #14 in PWR.

Duluth’s loss locked in their “worst case” scenario, which is making the tournament as a 3-seed.

AA’s loss knocked them out of contention for the NCAA tournament.

Team	PWR	Overall		Lose all remaining		Win all remaining
		Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR
Yale	1	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 4	1 to 3	1	1
North Dakota	2	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 2	1 to 2
Boston College	3	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 3
Michigan	4	2 to 10	3 to 10	4 to 10	4 to 10	2 to 5	3 to 5
Miami	5	3 to 10	3 to 10	5 to 10	5 to 10	3 to 4	3 to 4
Merrimack	6	4 to 10	4 to 10	6 to 10	7 to 10	4 to 5	4 to 5
Denver	7	4 to 10	4 to 9	5 to 10	5 to 9	4 to 6	4 to 6
Union	8	5 to 10	6 to 9	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Notre Dame	9	4 to 15	4 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 8	4 to 8
Minnesota-Duluth	10	7 to 11	8 to 11	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
New Hampshire	11	4 to 15	5 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 10	5 to 10
Western Michigan	12	10 to 19	10 to 19	12 to 19	13 to 19	10 to 13	10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha	13	12 to 16	12 to 16	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Colorado College	14	10 to 16	10 to 16	12 to 16	12 to 16	10 to 15	10 to 15
Dartmouth	15	10 to 22	11 to 21	15 to 22	16 to 21	10 to 15	11 to 14
Rensselaer	16	11 to 17	12 to 16	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Boston University	17	14 to 18	15 to 17	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Maine	18	14 to 20	16 to 19	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alaska Anchorage	20	19 to 23	20 to 23	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Bemidji State	22	17 to 28	18 to 27	22 to 28	22 to 27	17 to 20	18 to 20

Note — Michigan appears to have more upside potential if it “loses all remaining” than in the previous table. That’s actually a reflection of the possibility of a tie in the consolation game, which the previous table did not include.

It’s a little difficult to write a preview for North Dakota’s first game when the opponent hasn’t been set yet. So rather than a full preview, I’ll give you my thoughts for each of the Thursday games and how I see the tournament shaking out:

Quarterfinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #10 Bemidji State (14-17-5)

These two teams haven’t played since late October in Bemidji, when the Bulldogs took three points from the homestanding Beavers. Bemidji is getting great goaltending and UMD is cooling off a bit (4-4-2 in their last ten games), but not that much. BSU doesn’t have an answer for the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly), and Minnesota-Duluth will prevail, 4-2.

Quarterfinal #2: #6 Colorado College (21-17-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

The Seawolves took three of four games from the Tigers in the regular season, and UAA has won five straight coming in to the Final Five. CC has not swept a team since January 14th-15th (Alabama Huntsville). Colorado College has only won one game at the Final Five since 2003, and they’ll go home early again this year. Alaska-Anchorage in a mild upset, 3-2.

Semifinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #2 Denver (23-10-5)

These two teams are so close, but Duluth proved in 2009 that they can win multiple games on Final Five weekend and I have the sense that the Bulldogs will find the championship game yet again. Before the playoffs started, the Pioneers sputtered to the finish line, splitting their last five series in league play (including home losses against St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech). This one could go to overtime, with a Connolly netting the game winner. Minnesota-Duluth 5-4 (OT).

Semifinal #2: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

We saw this matchup twice last month, and there’s no reason to believe Anchorage will muster more than one goal against the Fighting Sioux this time around. UND will need to wear white all weekend (rather than their “business suit” blacks), but it won’t matter here. North Dakota 4-1.

Championship Game: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6)

I would pay to watch these two teams play a seven game series. It’s possible that Duluth would be playing for a #1 seed in the national tournament, and that extra motivation could put them over the top. No matter which way this game goes, I think the Fighting Sioux and Bulldogs will meet somewhere in the NCAAs. I’ll give this round to UMD. Minnesota-Duluth 4-3.

News and Notes:

With two victories this weekend, North Dakota would reach the 30 victory mark for the first time under head coach Dave Hakstol.

According to Jim Dahl’s excellent analysis (found here), North Dakota, Denver, and Duluth are all assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament. Colorado College, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State all need help outside their control, or can secure a bid in the NCAA’s by winning the Final Five this weekend.

On the outside looking in: Nebraska-Omaha is the only WCHA team sitting at home this weekend that can still make the NCAA tournament. The Mavericks can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th in the final Pairwise rankings. The other five teams in the conference (Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, and Michigan Tech) have played their last game for 2010-11.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of four.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field (from Niagara and Wisconsin).

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Cam Atkinson, junior forward, Boston College: 28 goals, 20 assists, 48 points

Carter Camper, senior forward, Miami (OH): 17 goals, 35 assists, 52 points

Jack Connolly, junior forward, Minnesota-Duluth: 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points

Stephane Da Costa, sophomore forward, Merrimack: 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points

Matt Frattin, senior forward, North Dakota: 33 goals, 21 assists, 54 points

Andy Miele, senior forward, Miami (OH): 21 goals, 44 assists, 65 points

Justin Schultz, sophomore defenseman, Wisconsin: 18 goals, 29 assists, 47 points

Paul Thompson, senior forward, New Hampshire: 28 goals, 24 assists, 52 points

Paul Zanette, senior forward, Niagara: 29 goals, 26 assists, 55 points

Goaltender:

Keith Kinkaid, sophomore, Union: 25-9-3, 1.98 goals-against average, .920 save percentage, 3 shutouts

A couple of these were very tough calls. I could have gone with North Dakota’s Chay Genoway and Aaron Dell over Justin Schultz and Keith Kinkaid, but I have a feeling that UND will have one Hobey hopeful this year.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.

UND PWR Possibilities

The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.

• If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
  • …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
  • …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
  • …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
• If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
  • …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
  • …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
    • …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
    • …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).

Top 20 PWR Possibilities

Who’s making the NCAA tournament?

What will the final PWR be?

Team	PWR	Overall		Lose all remaining		Win all remaining
		Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR
Yale	1	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 4	1 to 3	1	1
North Dakota	2	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 2	1 to 2
Boston College	3	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 3
Michigan	4	2 to 11	3 to 11	6 to 11	6 to 11	2 to 5	3 to 5
Miami	5	3 to 11	3 to 11	5 to 11	6 to 11	3 to 4	3 to 4
Denver	6	4 to 11	4 to 9	5 to 11	5 to 9	4 to 6	4 to 6
Minnesota-Duluth	7	4 to 11	4 to 11	7 to 11	8 to 11	4 to 6	4 to 6
Merrimack	8	4 to 11	4 to 11	6 to 11	7 to 11	4 to 6	4 to 6
Union	9	5 to 11	6 to 10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Notre Dame	10	4 to 15	4 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 8	4 to 8
New Hampshire	11	4 to 15	5 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 11	5 to 11
Western Michigan	12	10 to 19	10 to 19	13 to 19	14 to 19	10 to 13	10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha	13	12 to 16	12 to 16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Colorado College	14	10 to 19	10 to 18	12 to 19	15 to 18	10 to 15	10 to 15
Dartmouth	15	10 to 22	11 to 21	18 to 22	18 to 21	10 to 15	11 to 14
Rensselaer	16	10 to 19	11 to 16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Boston University	17	13 to 19	14 to 18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Maine	18	13 to 21	15 to 19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Minnesota	19	17 to 21	18 to 20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Alaska Anchorage	20	12 to 23	12 to 22	19 to 23	19 to 22	12 to 16	12 to 16
St. Cloud State	21	19 to 26	20 to 24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Alaska	22	22 to 28	22 to 26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.

Notes

Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!

Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.

Resources

• SiouxSports.com PWR Rankings
• CollegeHockeyNews NCAA Tournament Primer
• USCHO PairWise Predictor
• CollegeHockeyNews You Are The Committee

The future looks brighter for Michigan Tech. The freshmen and sophomore classes continue to lead the Huskies, and all seven point producers last weekend in Houghton were first- and second-year players.

Jamie Russell will graduate only three players after this season, and there’s reason to believe that MTU will avoid the WCHA basement in 2011-2012.

For North Dakota, the time is now. The Fighting Sioux boast two legitimate scoring lines (Frattin-Malone-Trupp and Gregoire-Knight-Hextall) and the league’s best defense and goaltending. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten in their last nine games (8-0-1), and destroyed Michigan Tech last weekend by a combined score of 17-3.

Despite the mismatch, history tells us that at least one of these games will be closer than last weekend’s scores. In March 2009, UND defeated Michigan Tech 5-1, 4-3 in the first round, and in March 2008, the Huskies took North Dakota to a third game, with the Fighting Sioux prevailing in the series 4-0, 2-3 (OT), 2-1.

One area of concern for North Dakota is whether the games will get out of hand if and when the scoreboard gets out of hand. In Saturday’s 11-2 drubbing of the Huskies, Michigan Tech was whistled for 49 minutes in penalties, including a 5 minute major for checking from behind and three 10 minute misconducts. UND would like to get out of this series in two games and in one piece.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-195-37, .293)

This Season: 4-28-4, 2-24-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.0% (24 of 150)
Penalty Kill: 74.8% (107 of 143)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-16-2, 3.86 GAA, .888 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 181-92-27, .648)

This Season: 26-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.30 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.4% (46 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (146 of 172)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (29-20-49), Junior F Jason Gregoire (21-16-37), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-18-34), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-11-17), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (24-6-2, 1.95 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 5, 2011 (Houghton, MI). North Dakota scored early (four goals in the first five minutes) and often (11 goals total) in completing a weekend sweep of the Huskies, 11-2. Jason Gregoire netted a hat trick, and Brett Hextall and Mario Lamoureux both collected four points. Huskies starting goaltender Josh Robinson lasted only 4 minutes and 39 seconds, allowing four goals on six shots.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 142-90-9 (.608), including a 79-33-4 (.698) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 9-0-1 (.950) record in the last ten games between the teams. The only blemish on that mark came in January 2009 when the teams skated to a 3-3 tie in Houghton. North Dakota avenged the tie with a 5-0 drubbing the following night. The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 50-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes

This weekend’s playoff series will mark the third time in four seasons that UND hosts the Huskies in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux forwards Matt Frattin, Jason Gregoire, and Evan Trupp have all joined UND’s Century Club (100 career points) in the past two weekends. North Dakota is now averaging four goals per game, and the team is 20-1-1 when scoring at least four goals.

The Prediction

North Dakota will roll on Friday night, but have a tougher time on Saturday. The Huskies go down, but not without a fight. UND 6-1, 4-2.

Bonus Predictions

#11 MSU-Mankato at #2 Denver: Denver in 3

#10 Bemidji State at #3 Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha in 2

#9 St. Cloud State at #4 Minnesota-Duluth: St. Cloud State in 3

#8 Alaska-Anchorage at #5 Minnesota: Minnesota in 3

#7 Wisconsin at #6 Colorado College: Colorado College in 3

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, suggestions, and predictions.