Weekend Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

Bemidji State had a rough introduction to the WCHA. In addition to losing their first two games at home to North Dakota by identical 5-2 scores, the Beavers didn’t find their third victory of the season until November 27th. To put that in perspective, North Dakota had won nine games by that point.

That victory over Northern Michigan, coupled with a home sweep over Nebraska-Omaha the following weekend, gave the BSU faithful some hope. Since that time, however, Tom Serratore’s squad has gone just 7-6-3 and are almost certainly going on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Bemidji State is currently in 9th place in the league, tied with the other two “State”s (MSU-Mankato and St. Cloud). If the Beavers are looking to move up in the standings and host playoff games at the BREC, they will need a split (or better) this weekend.

North Dakota hasn’t missed a beat since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite). The team has clicked in their absence, and the return of forwards Jason Gregoire (7-7-14 in his last eight games) and Brett Hextall (5-2-7 in his last five) has softened the blow somewhat.

There is an outside chance that league-leading UND would hoist the MacNaughton Cup (WCHA regular season championship trophy) this weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena. A sweep, coupled with some help (Denver, Duluth, and Nebraska-Omaha are all within three points, with DU and UNO playing each other) could lead to a celebration on Sunday afternoon.

And a final word about the ice conditions: REA is hosting the North Dakota state boys’ and girls’ hockey championships this weekend, in addition to the UND mens’ hockey series against Bemidji State. Kudos to the staff and crew at REA for keeping the ice in great shape over this stretch of games.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (10th season at BSU, 175-142-37 .547)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-12-4 WCHA (t-9th)
Last Season: 23-10-4 (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 14-3-1 CHA (1st)
Pairwise Ranking: 29th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.6% (21 of 102)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (114 of 138)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Read (16-12-28), Senior F Ian Lowe (11-12-23), Sophomore F Jordan George (14-17-31), Junior D Brad Hunt (1-16-17), Freshman D Sam Rendle (3-8-11), Junior G Dan Bakala (11-9-3, 2.17 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 177-92-27, .644)
This Season: 22-8-3, 17-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 3.67 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (34 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (131 of 156)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (24-14-38), Junior F Jason Gregoire (14-14-28), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-20-33), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-13-13), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (21-6-2, 2.02 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 16, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). North Dakota defeated the Beavers 5-2 to earn the road sweep after downing BSU one night earlier by the identical score. Matt Frattin scored four goals and added an assist in the weekend series.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 2009. The Fighting Sioux scored a power play goal thirty seconds into overtime to upend the visiting Beavers 4-3. BSU had tallied its own man-advantage marker midway through the third period to tie the score. North Dakota doubled BSU in the shot department, 40-20.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC (Bemidji Regional Events Center), North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won the last ten meetings between the teams by a combined score of 40-18. One of the victories came in overtime.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 19-1-1 (.929), including a 12-1-1 (.893) record in games played in Grand Forks. BSU’s lone victory over North Dakota came on February 7, 1990.

Game News and Notes:

UND clinched home ice for the opening round of the WCHA playoffs for the ninth consecutive year, the longest active streak in the league. North Dakota forwards Matt Frattin (97 career points) and Evan Trupp (96 career points) could join UND’s Century Club this weekend. This season, Bemidji State is 9-1-1 when leading after two periods and 1-9-1 when trailing after two periods. The Fighting Sioux senior class has scored nearly half (60 of 121) of the team’s goals this season. The Beavers are riding a five game unbeaten streak (3-0-2). Sophomore Aaron Dell has started the last twenty games in net for North Dakota (14-3-2, 1.84 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO in that span).

The Prediction

The afternoon games are always tricky to predict, but North Dakota has been on a roll and the only thing that could derail the train is BSU’s line of Jordan George, Ian Lowe, and Matt Read. I’m seeing two close games, with UND’s depth (watch for scoring from unexpected places this weekend) proving to be the difference. UND 4-2, 3-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

Minnesota and Wisconsin tournament watch

If the season ended today, Wisconsin (#14 PWR) would be right on the cusp of making the NCAA tournament and Minnesota (#18 PWR) would miss it.

Each would have to get up into the #12-#13 range to feel good about making the tournament at-large, or plan on winning the WCHA tournament.

Here are the outlooks for each for this weekend.

Minnesota

If the Gophers sweep, they’re most likely to land in the 17-18 range, with 19 also a distinct possibility.

Here are the other games that help them increase their PWR the most this weekend:

  • UMD over CC (one win)
  • Merrimack over Maine (one win)
  • Vermont over BU (sweep)
  • SCSU over UW (sweep)
  • Notre Dame over W. Michigan (sweep)

Wisconsin

If the Badgers sweep, 13-14 is most likely with 12-15 somewhat probable.

Here are the other games that help them increase their PWR the most this weekend:

  • Lake Superior over Miami (one helps, sweep is best)
  • Northeastern over New Hampshire (sweep)
  • AA over Alaska (one helps, two is better)
  • UMD over CC (sweep)

Updated to better contribute to a conversation going on in Bracketology 2011, here’s UW’s outlook for it’s final four regular season games.

The Prediction Business

In the past couple of months, I’ve heard plenty of comments about my score predictions and how accurate they (sometimes) are. I always have four things in mind when I set out to anticipate the results of a game or series:

#1: How many points will each team earn on the weekend? This one is fairly simple. Do I expect a split? Sweep? Three points?

#2: The result of each individual game (win, loss, or tie). In other words, will the home team take the opener but struggle in the rematch? Will travel be a factor? How have the teams been playing on Fridays and Saturdays?

#3: The nature of each game. Will the result be lopsided? Low scoring? Racehorse hockey?

#4: The actual score I expect for each game. Hockey scores are so random, with special teams, goaltending, and in-game adjustments all playing a role.

I went back and looked at the past 10 weekends for North Dakota. One of the weekends was a single game at Duluth (Hall of Fame Game), while the other nine were two-game series. So we’ve got a stretch of 19 games to examine.

Here are my predictions, the actual scores, and a comment for each series.

vs. Notre Dame Prediction: 5-2, 2-2. Actual Scores: 6-3, 2-2. I feel good about this; picking a three point series is tough, and I nearly nailed both scores.

vs. St. Cloud State Prediction: 5-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 3-1. 6-2. Meh.

at MSU-Mankato Prediction: 4-3, 4-2. Actual Scores 4-3, 4-2. Doesn’t get any better than this.

at Minnesota-Duluth Prediction: 4-3. Actual Score: 5-0. Predicted the victory, but that’s about it.

vs. Robert Morris Prediction: 6-1, 3-2. Actual Scores: 8-0, 2-1. As I said above, I nailed the results and the types of games we could expect. Good stuff here.

vs. Minnesota Prediction: 2-3, 4-1. Actual Scores: 2-3, 4-1. Nailed it again. This is when the buzz about my predictions really started.

vs. Nebraska-Omaha Prediction: 3-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 4-8, 4-2. Ugh.

at Colorado College Prediction: 3-2, 3-4. Actual Scores: 2-4, 6-0. I called the split, but had the wins reversed and the scores were not close at all.

vs. Alaska-Anchorage Prediction: 6-2, 2-1. Actual Scores 6-1, 3-1. I’m as happy about this as I am about calling both scores right. No one expected UND to hang 6 on the Seawolves, but I had to go with my gut.

at St. Cloud State Prediction: 3-3, 5-1. Actual Scores: 3-3, 3-2. Called the three points and got the opening score correct. The second game was much closer than the four goal cushion I gave the Sioux, but still not bad.

So if you’re counting at home (and if, amazingly, you’re still reading), the following stats might help:

I called the exact score in 6 of 19 games.

I predicted the correct result (win, loss, or tie) for each individual game 14 out of 19 times.

I correctly predicted the number of points the Sioux would earn in 8 of 10 weekends, only missing UNO (called three points, series was a split) and SCSU (called three points, series was a UND sweep).

Over the last ten weekends, I predicted UND’s record in those games would be 13-2-4 (.789). North Dakota’s actual record was 14-3-2 (also .789).

Bottom line: I’ll keep cranking out scores and we’ll see how close we can get the rest of the way.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

Weekend PairWise Ranking outlook

Look back at the last week

PWR Rankings

UND is currently sitting at #3 in the PWR, behind BC and Yale. The Sioux win 25 of 28 comparisons, losing the comparisons to BC, Merrimack, and Yale.

UND PWR Details

Merrimack took the comparison with UND by sweeping UNH. That gave Merrimack over 10 games vs. TUCs and improved Merrimack’s record vs. TUCs to slightly better than UND’s.

This weekend

Getting swept or splitting will most likely result in UND staying put at #3 (though getting swept would open up the realistic possibility of a decline). A sweep for the Sioux would make a climb to #2 reasonably likely.

Games to watch

One biggie, no surprise:

Northeastern over Boston College — a single win by Northeastern would help UND overtake B.C. (BC’s lead is a mere .0001 in RPI)

Others with a more minor impact:

Massachusetts over Merrimack — a pure defensive play. I don’t see an obvious way for UND to take back the comparison with Merrimack this weekend. However, if UND faltered, Merrimack could overtake UND in comparisons won and PWR.
New Hampshire over Vermont — I honestly can’t figure out in which scenarios this matters, but it does.
MTech over Denver — prevent Denver from overtaking UND if the Sioux falter.
Princeton over Yale — for Yale to lose the top spot this weekend, they have to lose to Princeton.

Yale Watch

If Yale loses to both Quinnipiac and Princton, they stand less than a 25% chance of holding onto the #1 spot.

If Yale sweeps, they’re guaranteed to hold onto the #1 spot.

All scenarios in which Yale loses the #1 spot this weekend include a loss to Princeton, though it’s technically possible for Yale to beat Quinnipiac and still fall.

For UND to take the comparison with Yale would require taking both RPI and TUC. Princeton is a TUC.

BC needs to take 2 of RPI, TUC, and COP. The only remaining opportunity to take COP would be if Yale lost to Colgate next weekend.

TUC Cliff Watch

The five teams near the TUC cliff, against whom UND has winning records, are all currently at or over .500 in RPI.

Team RPI UND record
Alaska .5090 1-0
St Cloud St .5084 2-0 (2 remain)
Robert Morris .5046 2-0
Alaska-Anchorage .5032 2-0-1
Bemidji St .5000 2-0 (2 remain)

While it’s true that UND has nowhere to go but down in TUC, a significant negative impact on UND remains unlikely.

Season Outlook

If UND keeps winning (e.g. 4 or more of the remaining 6 games), the Sioux stand a great chance of finishing the regular season in the top 4. The Sioux can do a lot to push themselves toward #2 overall, but to reach #1 overall is going to require some outside help.

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

It’s the middle of February, and St. Cloud State sits behind Alaska-Anchorage in the league standings.

I’m not sure I’m as good at predictions as some of you think I am, for reasons I’m about to illustrate:

Before the season started, I picked St. Cloud to finish 2nd and Anchorage to finish 11th. According to Jim Dahl’s “possible outcomes” thread, SCSU can finish no higher than 3rd, and those possibilities look even more remote with North Dakota coming to town.

In October, the Huskies appeared to be locked and loaded to challenge UND for the league title, with the only question mark on the blue line. At this point in the season, SCSU is loaded with question marks. Bob Motzko’s squad went on a seven-game unbeaten streak, but that was bookended with seven losses by a combined score of 30-10.

The road doesn’t get any easier as SCSU struggles to gain home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. After a home series against the Fighting Sioux, the Huskies host Wisconsin and travel to Denver to close out the regular season.

North Dakota clinched home ice and moved into first place in the league with a home sweep last weekend. UND has the easiest remaining schedule of the MacNaughton contenders, with a home series against Bemidji State and a road trip to Michigan Tech on the schedule.

Since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite), the Fighting Sioux have played some of their best hockey of the season. The return of forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire from injury has helped in that regard. Gregoire, in particular, has been an offensive catalyst, notching twelve points in eight games since his return to the lineup.

UND goaltender Aaron Dell notched his 20th victory of the season last weekend against Alaska-Anchorage, and has looked steady all season long. In addition to four shutouts, Dell has allowed a single goal in seven other starts. Junior netminder Brad Eidsness might not see the crease again this year.

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. North Dakota swept the series in Grand Forks and will claim the trophy outright with at least one point in the series. The Cup will be awarded in St. Cloud on Saturday. February 19th. Including this year, North Dakota has won at least a share of the Challenge Cup each of the past five seasons.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 117-88-28, .562)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-11-3 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)
Pairwise Ranking: t-26th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.90 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 16.8% (29 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (110 of 132)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (6-22-28), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (12-23-35), Junior F Jared Festler (11-7-18), Freshman D Nick Jensen (5-11-16), Senior D Brett Barta (1-10-11), Sophomore G Mike Lee (10-10-3, 2.83 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 176-92-26, .643)
This Season: 21-8-2, 16-6-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.71 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (32 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (126 of 148)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (22-13-35), Senior F Brad Malone (9-17-26), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-18-31), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Junior D Ben Blood (1-6-7), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (20-6-1, 1.99 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 4, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota put on the black jerseys and exploded for five first period goals in a rout over visiting St. Cloud State. UND’s 6-2 victory secured the first home sweep of the season for the Fighting Sioux.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: February 13, 2010. After a scoreless first period, UND erupted for six goals in the middle frame and destroyed the homestanding Huskies, 8-1. Sioux forward Matt Frattin added two goals in the third period.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 55-29-10 (.638), including a 21-16-5 (.560) record in St. Cloud.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 7-3-0 (.700) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series. North Dakota has already claimed at least a share of the Cup with a sweep in Grand Forks earlier this season.

Game News and Notes

In the last meeting between the teams, UND wore black jerseys at home for just the second time ever. St. Cloud State is only 4-7-3 at the National Hockey Center this season, with home victories over Quinnipiac and Bemidji State and a sweep against Michigan Tech. North Dakota is 9-4-1 on the road, with sweeps at Bemidji State, Wisconsin, and MSU-Mankato. The Fighting Sioux have won the last four games between the teams by a combined score of 22-7.

The Prediction

If these two teams met on neutral ice or in Grand Forks, I would predict another Sioux sweep. But UND has struggled on Friday nights in St. Cloud (0-7-3 in their last ten), and I have a feeling that they’ll need to mount a comeback to salvage a tie in the opener. The rematch is all North Dakota. 3-3 tie, UND 5-1.

On A Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon (February 19th) from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Grill and Bar in the Holiday Inn Hotel and Suites in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, share in some complimentary food and door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

This season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past seven seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. And last season, both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again. If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup three times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice.

Earlier this season, North Dakota swept a pair of games from SCSU in Grand Forks, so St. Cloud will have to return the favor and notch two victories this weekend to claim a share of the trophy.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, February 19th from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For a complete preview of this weekend’s series, click here. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Alaska-Anchorage

Alaska-Anchorage is looking at their best conference finish in program history. Before the season started, I predicted that the Seawolves would finish 11th out of 12 teams, and I wrote this:

11. Alaska-Anchorage: Ten freshmen and 40 minutes of returning experience in net means the Seawolves will be lucky to win five WCHA games.

So far this year, the six freshman forwards have appeared in a total of 101 games, scoring 18 goals and adding 30 assists. The two freshman blue liners have combined for 40 games, contributing 2 goals and 3 assists. That has taken some of the scoring load off of seniors Tommy Grant and Craig Parkinson and allowed freshmen goaltenders Rob Gunderson and Chris Kamal to grow accustomed to league play.

And I was dead wrong about the win total: UAA has already notched nine wins in the WCHA and is currently tied for 6th place in the league standings (with Colorado College).

Of the top five teams in the league, North Dakota has the easiest schedule remaining. After UAA, the Fighting Sioux will travel to St. Cloud and Michigan Tech and host Bemidji State over the final three weekends of the regular season. Denver has tough tests on the road (Minnesota and Nebraska-Omaha), and Duluth closes out the year with a road trip to Colorado College and a home series against UNO. As you can see, it will be almost impossible for Dean Blais’ squad to gain ground, as they also have Wisconsin at home and a road series at Anchorage. Wisconsin also faces Minnesota and Colorado College over the final month.

Alaska-Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: (Dave Shyiak, 6th season at UAA, 61-122-24, .353)

This Season: 10-13-3, 9-11-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 11-23-2 overall, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-25th
National Rankings: NR

Team Offense: 2.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.96 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (18 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (94 of 116)

Key Players: Senior F Tommy Grant (10-13-23), Freshman F Matt Bailey (8-9-17), Freshman F Jordan Kwas (4-13-17), Junior D Curtis Leinweber (4-6-10), Senior D Luka Vidmar (1-8-9), Freshman G Rob Gunderson (6-10-2, 2.72 GAA, .896 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)

This Season: 19-8-2, 14-6-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.66 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.48 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.3% (31 of 153)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (117 of 139)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (21-10-31), Senior F Brad Malone (9-16-25), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-16-28), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-14-25), Senior F/D Jake Marto (4-6-10), Junior D Ben Blood (1-5-6), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (18-6-1, 2.07 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 8, 2010 (Anchorage, AK). Midway through the 2nd period at the Kendall Hockey Classic, North Dakota led 5-1. Eight minutes later, the Seawolves were within one. Anchorage got the equalizer early in the 3rd and the game ended 5-5.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: November 15, 2008. UND used two power play goals and a shorthanded marker to defeat the visiting Seawolves, 3-1. UAA won Friday’s opener, 3-2, collecting just their third ever victory in Grand Forks,

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 40-17-4 (.689) including a 24-3-3 (.850) record in games played in Grand Forks. The Fighting Sioux have only lost twice in the last eleven meetings between the teams (7-2-2), with three of those games going to overtime.

Game News and Notes

The Seawolves are one victory away from matching their win total from all of last season. Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire has eight points (six goals, two assists) in six games since returning from injury on January 14th. UND’s Chay Genoway (lower-body injury) and Danny Kristo (frostbite) will miss this weekend’s action. Sioux forward Taylor Dickin will see his first action of the season.

The Prediction

This feels like a Friday breakout for North Dakota. In Saturday’s rematch, the Seawolves will limit penalties and scoring opportunities but will fall just short of a victory. UND 6-2, 2-1.

A look at this weekend’s PairWise Rankings possibilities

UND is currently ranked #5 in the PWR, though the Sioux are definitely looking up the ladder, not down.

Current PWR Rankings

Predicting UND’s PWR as of Feb. 15

Predicting for Tuesday, to include Monday night’s Beanpot games, UND is well-positioned to improve on its current ranking.

A sweep this weekend would almost guarantee a nice climb for UND (leaving only a about a 7% chance of ending the weekend #5 or lower). In that scenario, there would be about an 74% likelihood of UND being ranked #2-#3.

A split would really put UND’s fate in other team’s hands, with anything between #3 and #6 being moderately likely, but leaning toward #5-#6.

Games to watch this weekend

  • SCSU over UMD By far the most important series (other than its own) for UND this weekend. A Duluth loss could give UND the PWR comparison with Duluth (based on RPI and perhaps even TUC). However, SCSU could also become a TUC, giving UND 2 valuable TUC wins. That would be enough to possibly take the TUC comparisons from BC, UMD, and UNH (at least for one week, see “TUC Cliff Revisited” below).
  • UMN over Denver This is important from a defensive perspective, to keep Denver from overtaking UND. Denver wins could help the Pioneers surpass UND in both RPI and COP, depending on UND’s results this weekend.
  • Robert Morris over Mercyhurst This seems to be a pure TUC-cliff play, Robert Morris winning keeps their RPI over .500 and keeps them a TUC.
  • Bemidji State over MTech Another TUC-cliff play. The Beavers aren’t currently a TUC, but with a couple wins they could be, giving UND 2 more wins vs. TUCs.

TUC cliff revisited
The “TUC cliff” is a phenomenon in PWR where a team’s PWR ranking can be quite different depending which teams are “under consideration” (an RPI over .500).

Current RPI rankings

As I noted in this message board post, UND has a winning record vs. the following teams near the TUC cliff:

  • Alaska (1-0)
  • Robert Morris (2-0)

The more of those that become TUCs, the better for UND.

Far more significantly, UND could end with a winning record vs. the following teams near the TUC cliff:

  • Alaska-Anchorage (currently 0-0-1, 2 remaining)
  • St. Cloud (currently 2-0-0, 2 remaining)
  • Bemidji St. (currently 2-0-0, 2 remaining)

UND wants to beat those teams to get the maximum numbers of wins against them, but those losses will make it much harder for those teams to become TUCs. It’s like rain on your wedding day.

End of regular season outlook

With only 8 games left in the regular season, this is starting to shape up.

Edit… the above chart is the percentage share of possible outcomes. If you read those as probabilities, you’re essentially assuming that each team has a 50-50 chance of winning each game. More realistic, if you want to know what outcomes are actually likely, is guessing the winner of each game based on past results. The below chart does that (using KRACH).

The below notes refer to the probabilities of outcomes.

  • Win 4 — Minimum required to stay reasonably safe for an at-large bid.
  • Win 6 — Puts UND about where it is now, likely PWR ranking of #5-#6.
  • Win 8 — Very likely to be top 4 (82% chance).

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)

Idle UND hockey team could climb to #1 in PWR this weekend…

…but could also fall to #7.

I predicted back in December that I would next revisit the Pairwise Ratings (PWR) in February, and felt particularly compelled this week to follow through with that promise.

Predicting UND’s PWR as of Feb. 8

Bye week is always an interesting week to do a 1-week prediction, because it reveals how much our PWR can change without even playing. UND will have the same set of wins and losses a week from now as today, only PWR’s interpretation of the strength of those wins and losses will change.

UND is currently #3 in the PWR (actually, tied for #2 with Denver, who wins the RPI tie-breaker).

After next weekend (I projected out to next Tuesday to include the first round of the Beanpot), UND has over a 70% chance of being either #2 or #3.

#1 is actually possible (7%) as is #7 (.03%).

What to cheer for

You can follow along on the UND PWR Details table

The biggest games for UND are in the WCHA.

  • Minnesota beating Minn.-Duluth. Even a split would be enough to give UND the TUC point and the overall comparison, letting UND climb one spot.
  • CC beating Denver. This one is defensive — if Denver swept, they would get the TUC point from UND and the overall comparison, dropping UND a spot. A split should be enough to prevent that.
  • BU winning. It’s difficult to decipher when a team plays two different opponents, and it’s hard to figure out why Lowell matters, but it seems to a little. BU beating BC is important as defensive measure — a BC win over BU would be enough for BC to take the RPI point from UND and the overall comparison, dropping UND a spot.

FAQ

No one has actually asked yet, but someone is probably wondering…

How can UND get the #1 spot, I thought UND couldn’t take comparison with Yale?
I don’t think UND can take the comparison with Yale this week, overcoming Yale’s advantage in both RPI and TUC seems far-fetched. However, if UND took the comparison with Minn.-Duluth this week (see above), it would only be losing one comparison. If Yale lost a comparison to someone else this week, the two would be tied. UND would then need to surpass Yale in RPI to take the tie-breaker. Since UND is playing, the only way for that happen is for Yale to lose (probably both).

I just stumbled on this, how is PWR being predicted?
I simulate the outcomes of the remaining games in the season a million or so times, using KRACH to predict the likelihood of each team winning in each iteration. That’s enough simulations to ensure that even the most unlikely possibilities occur at least once. For each simulated season I calculate what PWR would result from that set of outcomes. I then use the aggregate results of those simulations to assign a likelihood to a particular outcome, that is, if UND finishes #3 in PWR in 370,000 of 1,000,000 simulations, I say that UND has about a 37% chance of finishing #3.

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)