Month: December 2010

UND at Minnesota-Duluth: Hall of Fame Game Preview

Minnesota Vikings football on a Tuesday night and Sioux hockey on Thursday. This is really messing up my weekly rhythm.

As such, I don’t have a preview full of facts, figures, and statistics. If you’d like to look back at the UND/Duluth series history and matchup through the years, click here.

This preview will focus on just one thing: how crucial this game is to the Pairwise standings at the end of the year. The two teams will not meet again in the regular season but could possibly play at the WCHA Final Five in St. Paul. If Duluth can “hold serve” in their new arena, they will have a decided advantage going forward.

Both teams are missing key players. For North Dakota, top-line forwards Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall will miss their fifth straight game due to injury, while defenseman Derek Forbort and forward Brock Nelson represent the United States at the World Junior Championships. Duluth’s top two point-scoring defensemen, Dylan Olsen and Justin Faulk, are also in Buffalo, New York wth Team USA.

The Prediction:
It’s always difficult to predict how teams will come out after a holiday break, and the edge is certainly with the Bulldogs. North Dakota spoiled Bemidji’s arena opener earlier this season, and I have a feeling that they’ll do it again. UND 4, UMD 3.

For your consideration: The University of North Dakota Pilots

Introducing The University of North Dakota Pilots. The Pilots. The UND Pilots.
.
In the interest of generating public support for one or more new nickname ideas, I offer for your consideration The Pilots.

Any new name must pass muster in a number of different areas to make a final list. The guidelines which follow come directly from the task force charged with finding a new nickname at Arkansas State University. I’m not suggesting that the University of North Dakota will work under the same exact framework, but at this stage guidelines such as these will inform and direct our discussion.

The name selected must not conflict with the school colors.

No conflict here. Any sort of Pilot logo could easily use green and/or pink as its primary colors, with black and white as secondary or alternate colors.

The name selected must be suitable for use with both men’s and women’s teams (non-gender specific).

Check.

The name selected should not be one that invites derision, humor or double meaning.

Aside from the fact that plane crashes inevitably occur from time to time, I couldn’t think of anything else to include here.

The name selected should be one that will stand the test of time.

Given the strong connection with UND’s Aerospace program and the continued presence of the Air Force Base in the Grand Forks community, I’m confident that Pilots can last forever.

The name selected should be one that suggests pride, courage and a strong competitive spirit and one that inspires the creation of effective imagery and logos for use in promotion and marketing efforts.

A pilot signifies pride, courage, and a competitive (and adventuresome) spirit. Some of the more famous pilots – Neil Armstrong, Amelia Earhart, Charles Lindbergh, and Chuck Yeager – are considered national heroes.

In terms of effective imagery and logos, I feel it passes the test with flying colors. “Pilots” can be effectively combined with the existing crossed “ND” logo or on its own as a primary or secondary logo .

The marketing possibilities are nearly endless. The club sections could be hangars, the booster organization could become the Pilots Club (with varying degrees of membership: aviators, bombardiers, co-pilots, etc.), and I’m sure Honda would love to jump on board since its Honda Pilot looks great in green.

The name selected will be distinctive and, if possible, unique to our conference, region and nation.

Distinctive, yes. Unique, almost.

Two former teams have been called the Pilots: major league baseball’s Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers in 1970, while the ECHL’s Pensacola Ice Pilots reorganized and dropped to the Southern Professional Hockey League in 2008, becoming the Ice Flyers.

The University of Portland (Oregon) and LSU-Shreveport (Louisiana) athletic teams are both called the Pilots, while the Bethel College (Indiana) Pilots use a nautical theme for their logo. As far as I know, no other team competing at the collegiate level or higher is known as the Pilots or any derivative thereof. I have no problem with North Dakota being the fourth team in the nation (and first in our region) to be called the Pilots, given that the name fares so strongly in every other area.

There is an instant connection between the UND Pilots and the city of Grand Forks, the University of North Dakota (specifically its Aerospace program), and the Grand Forks Air Force Base. The Pilots is a team name that is ready for flight.

I recognize that no one name will resonate with all interested parties, and I expect that this idea will be no different. Please feel free to comment, dissect, offer alternatives, or avoid the discussion altogether. It’s up to you.

A first look at rankings

When to look at PWR

Though January is the traditional time to start really looking at rankings, UND only has one meaningful game remaining before the new year, so now seems a fine time for a sneak preview.

First, I do want to draw attention to my essay from last year, When to start looking at PWR? Inspired by some humorously early bracketology discussions last Fall, it analyzes when the PWR rankings become useful by looking at two criteria:

  • How stable is it week-to-week?  If a #1 ranked team is likely to become a #15 ranked team next weekend after a loss or two, then it’s a practically useless measure.
  • How good a predictor is the current PWR of the final PWR?  The real PWR is only calculated once, once all the games have been played and it’s time to seed the tournament.  We’re really only interested in “if the season ended today” PWR calculations because we think they may have some predictive value of those final PWRs.

In short, PWR is wildly unstable until January and doesn’t become a very good predictor of end-of-season PWR until March.

PWR prediction

So, rather than look at PWR itself (what the tournament seeds would be if the season ended today), I’m going to fire up the PWR Predictor and show you what PWR could be at the end of the regular season, based on UND’s performance between now and then.

We knew it intuitively based on the record, but wow is UND in a different place from previous years (potential outcomes as of Feb. 10, 2010 and as of Jan. 29, 2009).

UND seems to already have a pretty solid lock on being a TUC — winning 7 of the remaining 17 almost guarantees it.

Winning just 7 would likely leave UND on the precipice of an at-large bid, while winning 8 would slide the Sioux more comfortably into the tweens.

Do keep in mind how flat some of those curves are, so it’s much more likely for UND to fall into a “tail”  — e.g. while the “win 7” curve is centered around #10, it’s only half as likely to be #14 or a quarter as likely to be #16.

Bonus coverage — what’s up with Yale?

There’s been a lot of chatter about whether Yale’s #1 ranking and poll spot is deserved, given the quality of competition they’ve played.  One of the questions being asked is how good a job the rankings do at incorporating strength-of-schedule for teams with exceptional win-loss records.  The PWR Predictor can help with a question like this by measuring the stability of Yale’s lofty perch atop the rankings.  If Yale loses a handful of games and plummets to a more mortal win-loss record, what will happen to their PWR?

It’s a little hard to read because it’s so dense over there near the #1 ranking.  Basically, Yale would have to win fewer than 7 of their remaining 17 games to be in likely danger of not being a TUC.  With as few as 10 wins they seem almost a lock for a top 4 seed.

Bottom-line: From a PWR perspective, Yale is for real.

Resources

I don’t expect to have anything new to say about PWR for at least a month or two, but data hounds may want to keep an eye on things themselves:

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at MSU-Mankato

It’s been a different sort of first half for North Dakota. In head coach Dave Hakstol‘s first six seasons, UND has gone into the Christmas break with an average of 6.2 WCHA losses. Heading into Mankato this weekend (their last conference action until January), the Fighting Sioux sport a 9-3-0 league record.

It’s also worth noting that two of those three conference losses were an overtime loss against Duluth and a last-second heartbreaking defeat in Omaha.

In non-conference action, the Green and White hit a two-game skid at Maine but performed well otherwise and have an even 2-2-2 mark against Alaska-Anchorage, Alaska, Maine, and Notre Dame. The “non-conference” game at Duluth to open the Bulldogs’ new arena and a home series against Robert Morris will be important second-half contests if UND has designs on a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Minnesota-State Mankato has come on lately, winning its last four games (@UMass-Lowell, vs. Minnesota). The Mavs have been road warriors, playing eight consecutive games away from Alltel Center. Before last weekend’s series against the Gophers, the Landcows’ last home game was October 23rd.

It’s been feast or famine in the goal scoring department for Jutting’s squad. In six victories, MSU-M has averaged 4.0 goals per game. In six defeats, the Mavericks have scored an average of 1.3 goals.

Mankato has only one player with more than four goals on the season (Justin Jokinen, 6) while North Dakota’s top lamp-lighters are Matt Frattin (15) and Corban Knight (9).

In injury news, Sioux forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire will be out of the lineup once again. Look for senior forward Brett Davidson to play up front this weekend after a strong Saturday night against St. Cloud State.

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (11th season at MSUM, 164-188-51, .470)
This Season: 6-6-4, 4-6-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 16-20-3, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.81 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (11 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (69 of 85)

Key Players: Freshman F Chase Grant (4-6-10), Junior F Michael Dorr (4-6-10), Senior F Andrew Sackrison (3-5-8), Senior D Kurt Davis (4-9-13), Senior F Ben Youds (2-2-4), Sophomore G Phil Cook (5-6-2, 3.03 GAA, .913 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 166-89-26, .637)
This Season: 11-5-2, 9-3-0 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: #4
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.39 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (17 of 93)
Penalty Kill: 85.9% (67 of 78)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (15-7-22), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (9-8-17), Senior F Evan Trupp (5-8-13), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-12-15), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (10-4-1, 2.18 GAA, .902 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 9, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota got two goals from Jason Gregoire for the second consecutive game and completed the sweep of the visiting Mavs, 3-2. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s opener, 4-1.

Last Meeting in Mankato: October 18, 2008. North Dakota turned the special teams tables on Mankato by scoring three power play goals and adding a late shorthander for a 4-3 victory. MSU-M won Friday’s opener 5-1 on the strength of three shorthanded tallies.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 33-10-7 (.730), including a 12-4-4 (.700) record in games played in Mankato.

Last ten: North Dakota has a sparkling 9-1-0 (.900) record in the last ten contests, and has lost just once in the last 16 meetings (14-1-1).

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has allowed the first goal in 12 of 18 contests this year and has a record of 8-3-1 in those games. The Mavericks have killed off the last 13 opponent power play opportunities, while North Dakota was held without a power play marker in 11 chances last weekend against St. Cloud State. UND has not lost when leading after two periods this season (8-0-0). Sioux forward Matt Frattin is tied for the NCAA goal-scoring lead with 15.

The Prediction

If North Dakota were healthy, I would pick a sweep. If North Dakota were at home, I would pick a sweep. The Fighting Sioux are banged up and on the road, and I’m picking a sweep. These are the road games good teams need to win to become great teams. UND 4-3, 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

North Dakota has played by far the toughest schedule in the country to this point, battling five teams (two games each) in the top 13 in the pairwise rankings. Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, Notre Dame, Denver, and Maine would all make the tournament (along with North Dakota) if the season ended today.

St. Cloud State has faced three opponents in the same category (Miami [OH], Minnesota, and Nebraska-Omaha), for a total of six games.

UND went 4-5-1 against top-tier opponents, losing one game in overtime and another in the final second of regulation. St. Cloud has a record of 1-3-2 against its toughest opponents.

Why, then, is North Dakota a top-ten team in the polls and in the pairwise, while St. Cloud is looking at a second-division WCHA finish?

The answer is in the rest of the schedule. The Fighting Sioux are 5-0-1 against Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Wisconsin, and Bemidji State, while the Huskies are a pedestrian 4-4-0 against RIT, Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Alaska-Anchorage.

SCSU is currently in 7th place in the WCHA, but that’s a bit misleading since they’ve only played eight league games while more than half of the teams in the conference (and six of the seven teams tied or above in the standings) have played ten.

After this weekend, the two teams play one more WCHA series (UND at MSU-Mankato, SCSU vs. Colorado College) before the Christmas break, and both squads would like to pick up conference points this weekend to set themselves up for a second half run.

On the injury front, UND forward Brett Hextall will miss this weekend’s games with an undisclosed injury, while two other (unnamed) Sioux players are questionable for the series.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 110-81-26, .567)
This Season: 5-7-2, 3-4-1 WCHA (t-7th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.07 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (16 of 94)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (49 of 60)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (2-8-10), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (5-12-17), Junior F Jared Festler (6-3-9), Freshman D Nick Jensen (2-7-9), Senior D Chris Hepp (1-2-3), Sophomore G Mike Lee (3-4-1, 3.27 GAA, .887 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 164-89-26, .634)
This Season: 9-5-2, 7-3-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: # 7
National Rankings: # 7/# 7

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.86 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (17 of 82)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (61 of 72)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (13-4-17), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (8-8-16), Senior F Evan Trupp (4-7-11), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-10-13), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (8-4-1, 2.29 GAA, .899 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 20, 2010 (St. Paul, MN). In the Final Five title game, SCSU won the opening minute 2-0 and the Fighting Sioux won the remaining 59 minutes by a score of 5-1. It was North Dakota’s third victory in three nights at the tournament.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 14, 2009. One night after St. Cloud junior forward Aaron Marvin met North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway with a high elbow, the visiting Huskies posted a 3-2 victory over North Dakota. SCSU goaltender Dan Dunn made 46 saves and withstood a furious Sioux comeback after St. Cloud took an early 3-0 lead.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 53-29-10 (.630), including a 27-12-5 (.670) mark on home ice and a record of 8-3-3 (.679) in games played in the new Ralph Engelstad Arena since it opened in 2001.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 6-3-1 (.650) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series.

Game News and Notes

UND is 8-0-0 all-time when Mario Lamoureux scores a goal (so here’s hoping he doesn’t shadow box anybody). The junior forward has scored three goals in five career games against the Huskies. SCSU netminder Mike Lee is expected to start Friday’s opener despite being lit up in three games against North Dakota last season (0-3, 6.70 GAA, .835 SV%). Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol has 99 career WCHA victories to his credit.

The Prediction

This one hinges on the health in North Dakota’s locker room. If one of the (unnamed) players unable to go this weekend is who I believe he is, then we could be looking at a split. I was spot on with my three point prediction last weekend against the Fighting Irish, so we’ll try it again. The Fighting Sioux will have better success against goaltender Mike Lee on Friday than they will against his counterpart (Dan Dunn) on Saturday, so we’ll go with UND 5-2, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar (a smoke-free venue). This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, view the Challenge Cup, and win fabulous door prizes. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.