Forecasting the PWR… a look ahead at SCSU

Though the Sioux continue to complicate things with ties, I’m again going to declare reasonable success in last week’s prediction.  A split was predicted to most likely land UND in the 14-17 range and a sweep in the 11-14 range.  3 points on the weekend left UND at 14-15.

So, without further ado, this week’s forecast:

UND's PWR on 2009-Feb-01 based on outcomes vs. St. Cloud
UND's PWR on 2009-Feb-01 based on outcomes vs. St. Cloud

Help for those who don’t like reading graphs:

Sioux sweep: 67% chance of landing at #12 or #13, 94% chance of landing between #11-#14.

Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15

Sioux swept: 60% chance of landing #17 or #18, 91% chance of landing between #16-#19.

Who else to cheer for?

Of teams playing just 1 game:

Vermont win over New Hampshire gives UND an average rise of .472

Of teams playing 2 games:

A Bemidji St sweep over Bob Morris gives UND an average rise of .607 (a single win gives UND a rise of .277)
An Alaska sweep over Ohio State gives UND an average rise of .518 (a single win gives UND a rise of .247)

End of season outlook

Last but not least, there’s been a lot of speculation how many games UND needs to win to make the tournament. For the regular season only, here’s UND likely PWR ranking based on how many of its remaining games it wins. To be comfortably ranked higher than 13 would require winning 80%, though it’s a tossup at 60%, and still possible at 50%.

UND's forecasted end of regular season PWR based on win% over remaining games
UND's forecasted end of regular season PWR based on win% over remaining games

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

The last time these teams played, St. Cloud State sat in 7th place in the conference while UND found itself in 9th.

Seven weeks later, the Huskies are still sitting in seventh, while North Dakota has surged to 2nd place.

Since being swept at North Dakota, SCSU has picked up just three victories and two ties. The Fighting Sioux have lost just twice in December and January (10-2-2) and are right in the middle of the race for the McNaughton Cup.

North Dakota has been getting great goaltending and balanced scoring for the better part of two months, while St. Cloud has been up and down. Over the past three weekends, the Huskies swept Duluth at home, suffered two losses against Minnesota, and took three of four points from the Tigers in Colorado Springs.

Garrett Roe (12 goals and 24 assists for 36 points) and Lasch (11-19-30) continue to lead the way for St. Cloud State. The Huskies continue to thrive on the power play (18.1%) but have struggled in close contests (1-5-0 in one goal games this season).

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup. North Dakota swept two games from St. Cloud in Grand Forks, so the Huskies will need to win both games this weekend to share the trophy for the second consecutive year.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (4th season at SCSU, 76-54-18, .574)
This Season: 13-11-2 Overall, 8-9-1 WCHA (7th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 19th
Team Offense: 3.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.92 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.1% (30 of 166)
Penalty Kill: 79.8% (103 of 129)
Last Season: 19-16-5 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Garrett Roe (12-24-36), Senior F John Swanson (8-15-23), Junior F Ryan Lasch (11-19-30), Junior D Garrett Raboin (8-16-24), Junior G Jase Weslosky (11-7-1, 2.87 GAA, .912 SV, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 121-66-18, .634)
This Season: 15-10-3 Overall, 10-5-3 WCHA (2nd)
National Ranking: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: 14th
Team Offense: 3.57 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.75 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.3% (37 of 192)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (124 of 147)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (11-11-22), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (9-12-21), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-23-25), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (15-7-3, 2.50 GAA, .910 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 13, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). Brett Hextall scored the game-winner with five seconds remaining in the second period as North Dakota defeated St. Cloud 7-4. UND won the opener, 3-2.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: January 5, 2008. Ryan Duncan led the Fighting Sioux with two goals and an assist as UND downed the Huskies 6-2 to gain a split of the weekend series.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 49-26-10 (.635), and holds a record of 19-14-5 (.566) in games played in St. Cloud.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 25 consecutive games (including 24 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan moved into the top 20 on UND’s career scoring list with a three point weekend against Denver. Duncan has notched 155 points in his Sioux career. St. Cloud holds a sparkling 10-3-0 record in home games.

The Prediction

This series has split written all over it. North Dakota will continue its solid play on Friday night, but the Huskies will not lose all four games in this season series. UND 5-3, SCSU 4-2.

On a Personal Note

The St. Cloud State University Center Ice Club will be hosting a pre-game social this Saturday, January 31st from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at the St. Cloud Holiday Inn and Suites (Legends Bar). The Holiday Inn is located at the intersection of Highway 15 and Division Street (Highway 23).

They will provide food, prizes, and tremendous hospitality to fans of both teams. I encourage you to attend the social, take a look at the Challenge Cup, and meet some great fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry.

This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its scheduling system, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season (and play the other schools twice one season, four times the next, and so on). Minnesota and Wisconsin were paired up, as were Colorado College and Denver. All four of those schools, and particularly Minnesota and Wisconsin, would have made excellent schedule partners for UND.

And which of the remaining teams would become North Dakota’s schedule partner? Alaska-Anchorage? Mankato? No, as the two newest members of the WCHA (1993 and 1999, respectively), the Seawolves and Mavericks were paired with each other. How about Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan Tech, schools which had been members of the conference for over 35 years? No again. Those two schools are just over 200 miles apart, and that was certainly a factor in the decision.

That left St. Cloud State, a familiar foe for Sioux fans from North Central Conference football and basketball games. The St. Cloud State Huskies had been a Division I hockey program for 15 years (and a WCHA member for 12) before the 2002-03 season, and had posted a 83-34-6 (.699) record over the previous three seasons. By contrast, from 1999-02, UND held a record of 76-35-16 (.654).

The two schools had played a handful of meaningful games in the past. In 1991 (St. Cloud’s first in the league), the Huskies and Sioux met in Grand Forks for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. St. Cloud took the opener, 4-2, before falling 10-2 and 7-4 in games 2 and 3. The two teams met in the 1998 and 2000 WCHA Final Five semifinal games, with North Dakota prevailing in both contests. Perhaps the best reason to be optimistic about the rivalry was the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game, a hard-fought contest which St. Cloud State won on Derek Eastman’s overtime winner.

It’s fair to say that in 2002 there was confusion AND cautious optimism surrounding the potential rivalry between the two teams. (And on a personal note, I had already traveled to St. Cloud for the Sioux/Husky games four times before the rivalry announcement was made, and I was more than pleased that I would now be able to make this trip every year.)

It’s also fair to say that the rivalry has caught on over the past seven seasons. The two teams have played eight overtime contests in their 30 regular-season meetings, and points are tough to come by, at home and on the road. The fans have also made their mark on the partnership between the schools, as the UND/SCSU rivalry now has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. And last year, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com pre-game social this Saturday, November 14th from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar in Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For more on this weekend’s series, click here. Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

Inside the WCHA: Down the home stretch

At the beginning of the season, I gave you my predicted order of finish in the WCHA:

1. North Dakota
2. Denver
3. Colorado College
4. MSU-Mankato
5. Wisconsin
6. St. Cloud State
7. Minnesota
8. Minnesota-Duluth
9. Michigan Tech
10. Alaska-Anchorage

And here’s how the race stacks up heading into this weekend’s action:

1. Denver (11-5-2, 24 points)
2. North Dakota (10-5-3, 23 points)
3. Wisconsin (10-6-2, 22 points)
t4. Minnesota (9-4-3, 21 points)
t4. Colorado College (9-8-3, 21 points)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (7-6-5, 19 points)
7. St. Cloud State (8-9-1, 17 points)
8. MSU-Mankato (7-11-2, 16 points)
9. Alaska-Anchorage (5-9-4, 14 points)
10. Michigan Tech (1-14-5, 7 points)

It is worth noting that while the majority of teams have ten games remaining, Minnesota has twelve games left while CC, MSU-M, and MTU have only eight games remaining. Amazingly, only three points separate the top five teams in the standings. More impressively, the top nine teams can still finish with a winning record in league play.

So far, the biggest surprises to me have been Minnesota and Mankato. In my season preview, I predicted that the Gophers would struggle to score two goals per game. But I also said this:

If incoming freshman Jordan Schroeder (US Under 18) is as good as advertised and redshirt junior Ryan Stoa brings much-needed offensive punch, Minnesota could find itself in the top five.

Minnesota’s top two scorers are Ryan Stoa (15 goals, 15 assists for 30 points) and Jordan Schroeder (10-17-27). Because of their contributions, the Gophers are clipping along at 3.45 goals per game and are in prime position to contend for the McNaughton Cup.

On the other hand, I picked Mankato as a surprise team in the top five:

With this team (including Mick Berge, Trevor Breuss, and Mike Zacharias), the Mavericks should gain home ice and advance to the WCHA Final Five. The only question for this squad is how they will handle the expectations.

Senior Mick Berge (5-18-23) has done well and sophomore defenseman Kurt Davis (5-22-27) has been a nice surprise, but junior Trevor Breuss (10-4-14) hasn’t met expectations after turning down a pro contract to return for a third season with the Mavericks. But the biggest reason that the Mavs have faltered is goaltending. Zacharias has struggled to keep his save percentage at .900, and he’s allowing more than three goals per game. Last season, he posted a goals-against average of only 2.08 and a .924 save percentage.

Everything else has gone pretty much as I expected, which makes for a very interesting home stretch for the league title. Take a look at the remaining opponents for the top five teams:

Denver: vs. UAA (2), @ UMD (2), @ CC (1), @ UW (2), vs, SCSU (2), vs. CC (1)
North Dakota: @ SCSU (2), vs. MSUM (2), @ UAA (2), vs. CC (2), @ UW (2)
Wisconsin: vs. UMD (2), @ UMN (2), vs. DU (2), @ MSUM (2), vs. UND (2)
Minnesota: @ MSUM (1), vs. MSUM (1), vs. UW (2), vs. UAA (2), @ CC (2), vs. UMD (2), @ MTU (2)
Colorado College: @ MTU (2), vs. DU (1), vs. UMN (2), @ UND (2), @ DU (1)

Colorado College likely won’t move up much in the standings with only eight games left, but they have six games left against teams above them, so anything is possible.

Minnesota is in the best position of any team in the top five, with twelve games remaining (including seven at home and two road games at Michigan Tech). Expect the Gophers to contend for the McNaughton Cup.

Wisconsin is in an interesting spot, with six of its ten games against Denver, North Dakota, and Minnesota. It’s tough to get a read on the Badgers; after a winless October (0-6-1), UW went 10-1-2 in November and December but has posted a pedestrian 3-3-0 mark so far in January.

North Dakota is the country’s hottest team, going 10-2-2 in December and January after a 5-8-1 start. On the last two weekends of WCHA action, UND hosts Colorado College and travels to Madison to take on the Badgers, and those two weekends will determine whether the Fighting Sioux hoist the McNaughton Cup. A 5-5 record in non-conference play hurts UND in the PairWise rankings (used to select the 16-team field for the NCAA tournament), but the way the Sioux are playing right now, they might just win the WCHA Final Five and not have to worry about the committee.

Denver lost Tyler Bozak (7-14-21 in 18 games) to injury in mid-December, and hope they are still playing when he returns to action. It will be interesting to see how the Pioneers respond to their disappointing performance against UND last weekend.

If I had to predict how the race would play out, I would put them in this order:

1. North Dakota
2. Minnesota
3. Denver
4. Wisconsin
5. Colorado College

And yes, I admit that it is possible for other teams in the league to secure a top-five finish. Of those, St. Cloud State appears most likely to make that move after taking three points from the Tigers in Colorado Springs last weekend.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

Friday Game React: UND vs. Denver

2009 has been very good to North Dakota.

The Fighting Sioux have not lost since the calendar turned to the new year, going 6-0-1 so far in January and vaulting to within one point of first-place Denver. With a victory in Saturday’s rematch, UND would claim the top spot in the WCHA with ten games to play.

More importantly, North Dakota’s 8-3 victory over visiting Denver has them in 14th place in the PairWise rankings. There is plenty of hockey to be played, but UND’s record over the past two months (10-2-1) has all but erased the memory of a 5-8-1 start.

The Fighting Sioux dominated the opening period on Friday night, outscoring the Pioneers 4-1. UND’s fourth goal chased DU goaltender Marc Cheverie from the action in favor of Lars Paulgaard. Cheverie returned for the second period and part of the third, but North Dakota’s seventh goal sent him to the showers for good.

UND took control of the hockey game with a balanced attack. All four lines contributed to the rout, led by Evan Trupp-Chris Vandevelde-Matt Frattin (2 goals and 3 assists) and Matt Watkins-Darcy Zajac-Ryan Martens (2 goals and 3 assists). North Dakota’s two leading scorers, defensemen Chay Genoway and Brad Miller, were held off the scoresheet, but Joe Finley (1 goal, 3 assists) and Jake Marto (1 goal, 2 assists) provided punch from the blueline.

Sioux freshman forward Brett Hextall completed a rare triple play midway through the third period: he drew three penalties at the same time. Rhett Rhakshani elbowed Hextall, causing the refs to call a delayed penalty. After Denver touched the puck and the whistle blew, Anthony Maiani skated past Hextall and dragged him down by the jersey. Both Rhakshani (elbowing) and Maiani (misconduct) were sent to the box at 9:59 of the third period. As the referees were sorting out the penalties and the scoreboard, UND prepared to take the faceoff for their 5 on 3 power play. Dustin Jackson was lined up across from Hextall for the faceoff, and made several attempts to engage Hextall before the puck was dropped. Jackson’s slash did not go unnoticed, and he was sent to the showers with a 2 (slashing) and 10 (misconduct) at – you guessed it – 9:59. It was abundantly clear that Brett Hextall took several Pioneers off of their game on Friday night.

The remaining ten minutes of the hockey game could best be described as a powder keg, but I thought the referees kept things under control. They stepped in quickly and did a nice job of calling the extra penalty on the initiating player. I also appreciated their attempts to stop Denver from emptying their bench onto the ice at the end of every period (if you remember, that’s what started the Radke vs. Vossberg beatdown last year). I don’t care if “that’s what Denver always does”, it’s not allowed.

In an 8-3 win, the winning goaltender can often be overlooked, but Brad Eidsness turned in another solid performance. He was victimized by a couple of defensive breakdowns late in periods one and two, but he made some key saves early on when the game was tight. Eidsness’ stop on Rhett Rhakshani midway through the first period stands out as a game-changing save.

North Dakota is now 8-0-1 when leading after one, while Denver falls to 1-6-1 when trailing after the opening twenty minutes. Denver fell to 4-4-0 on the road, while the Fighting Sioux have compiled a home record of 9-3-0. UND will be looking for its fourth consecutive stick salute (commemorating a home sweep) in Saturday’s finale.

Freshman defenseman Ben Blood saw his first game action since January 3rd and played well. He used his size effectively and played well with Brad Miller. The coaches felt that Blood had earned a start in practice, but expect to see Zach Jones back in the lineup on Saturday night.

The “overrated” chant is my least favorite chant in the history of hockey. This is what it sounds like to me: “Your team must not be as good as everyone says you are, because even WE can beat you”. Fans, we need to put that chant to rest. And one other thing…I’m not a big wave fan, but if you’re going to start one, wait until a tv timeout or referee’s conference or after a fight when the ice looks like one big yard sale. We don’t need the wave when the puck is in play. END RANT.

The two teams face off Saturday night at 7:07 p.m. In my weekend preview, I had this to say:

The Prediction

North Dakota has fared better against teams that like to transition quickly, and Denver fits the bill. The first period on Friday night will be key for the weekend series. I have a feeling that UND will click in the opener and Denver’s goaltending will even up the series on Saturday. UND 4-2, DU 3-1.

I’m not so certain about Denver’s goaltending after watching Cheverie allow 7 goals on 21 shots, but I do think that the rematch will be closer and more tightly contested. For more on the matchup between the teams, click here.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after Saturday’s game for more reaction and commentary.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Denver

When the Minnesota Golden Gophers came to Ralph Engelstad Arena in early January, North Dakota’s season could have gone in either direction. The Maroon and Gold looked to be the prohibitive favorite in those contests, and UND was in real danger of playing on the road in the WCHA playoffs and missing the NCAA tournament entirely.

What a difference two weeks makes.

The Fighting Sioux swept a pair from the Gophers, took three of four points at Michigan Tech, and find themselves at home this weekend with first place on the line.

The Denver Pioneers arrive in Grand Forks sporting an impressive record (15-6-2) and a high-powered offense (3.65 goals per game). Yet George Gwozdecky’s squad has played only 7 of those 23 games on the road.

North Dakota is in the middle of yet another second-half surge, going 9-2-1 in December and January after opening the season 5-8-1.

In the race for the McNaughton Cup, UND sits in 4th place, three points behind first place Denver. Wisconsin (10-6-2 WCHA, 2nd place) and Minnesota (9-4-3, 3rd) are idle this weekend.

Not only are this weekend’s games pivotal in the league race, it is very likely that a Sioux sweep would vault them into 12th or 13th in the PairWise rankings, used to determine the field for the NCAA tournament. For more on how this weekend’s games could affect the PairWise rankings, read Jim Dahl’s excellent article here.

On the injury front, Denver’s sophomore sensation Tyler Bozak (7 goals and 14 assists in 18 games) has not played since December 12th and is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. For North Dakota, senior forward Andrew Kozek (5 goals, 6 assists) will be a game-time decision after missing last weekend’s series at Michigan Tech.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (15th season at DU, 338-211-43, .607)
This Season: 15-6-2 Overall, 11-4-1 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: 8th
Team Offense: 3.65 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.6% (23 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 87.3% (110 of 126)
Last Season: 26-14-1 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Anthony Maiani (7-21-28), Junior F Rhett Rakhshani (10-11-21), Freshman F Joe Colborne (5-14-19), Sophomore F Kyle Ostrow (7-9-16), Senior D J.P. Testwuide (2-6-8), Sophomore G Marc Cheverie (15-6-2, 2.19 GAA, .925 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 120-66-17, .633)
This Season: 14-10-2 Overall, 9-5-2 WCHA (4th)
National Rankings: #15/#15
PairWise Ranking: 14th (tied)
Team Offense: 3.46 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (35 of 180)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (114 of 135)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (10-9-19), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (8-10-18), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Senior F Ryan Martens (9-9-18), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-23-25), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (14-7-2, 2.51 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 21, 2008 (St. Paul, MN). Pioneer freshman forward Anthony Maiani scored an unassisted goal with 80 seconds remaining and Denver added an empty-net goal with six seconds on the clock as DU downed UND 3-1 in a semifinal matchup at the WCHA Final Five. Taylor Chorney scored the lone goal for North Dakota, which suffered only its third loss in 2008 (16-3-3). The Fighting Sioux would rebound and win three straight to claim the NCAA Midwest Regional championship and a fourth consecutive trip to the Frozen Four.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 16, 2008. UND won 4-1 to complete the weekend sweep of the visiting Pioneers. Sioux junior winger Andrew Kozek scored a hat trick in Friday’s opener, bringing North Dakota back from a 4-1 deficit to win 5-4. The Sioux scored eight of the last nine goals in the series.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-110-7 (.537), including a 78-39-4 mark (.661) in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Denver is 1-5-1 when trailing after one period of play, while North Dakota has not lost a game (7-0-1) when leading after twenty minutes. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 23 consecutive games (including 22 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 21st on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 152 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with two more points this season. In the past seven meetings between the two teams, the Fighting Sioux have killed 30 of 33 Pioneer power play opportunities.

The Prediction

North Dakota has fared better against teams that like to transition quickly, and Denver fits the bill. The first period on Friday night will be key for the weekend series. I have a feeling that UND will click in the opener and Denver’s goaltending will even up the series on Saturday. UND 4-2, DU 3-1.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

Predicting the PWR… The impact of the Denver series

Last week’s A look into the future… UND’s PWR after the Michigan Tech series went pretty well.  If you look back at the chart, UND was most likely to fall between 15 and 17 with a sweep and 20 to 21 with a split.  Here we are, a 3-point series later, and UND’s PWR is currently 16 (it fluctuated from 14 to 16 after UND’s game were finished, based on other teams’ results).

A look at how the Denver games will affect PWR

And you thought the PWR was volatile the last couple weekends.  Get a load of this…

postdupwr
UND's likely PWR based on this weekend's outcomes

For a quick lesson or reminder how to read the chart:

The three lines represent the potential PWR rankings as of next Monday (Jan. 26) dependent on UND’s performance this weekend.  The far left purple line is UND sweeping, the middle orange line a split, and the right blue line DU sweeping.  The numbers on the bottom are the possible PWR ratings and the numbers on the left axis the likelihood of that ranking.

For example, looking at the high point of the purple line, it’s at about 30% for both 12 and 13.  That means that if UND sweeps Denver, there’s over a 30% chance its PWR will be 12 and over a 30% chance its PWR will be 13 (or over a 60% chance its PWR will be either 12 or 13).

Average increase in UND’s PWR from 1 win this weekend: 5.76 spots
Average increase in UND’s PWR from 2 wins this weekend: 8.50 spots

Other games of interest

One of the reasons predicting PWR is so tricky is that UND’s PWR is influenced by other games as its former and future opponents rise and fall. This week I also recorded which non-UND games have the biggest impact on UND’s PWR as of next Monday.

Team Average UND PWR
if team wins 0
Average UND PWR
if team wins 2
Average Gain
in UND PWR
from team sweep
Northern Michigan
over Alaska
16.53 15.16 1.37
Bemidji State
over Niagara
16.56 15.30 1.26
SCSU
over CC
16.84 15.64 1.20

So, Northern Michigan is the non-UND game that has the biggest impact on UND’s PWR (as of next Monday). If Northern Michigan sweeps Alaska, UND’s PWR will be an average of 1.37 spots higher. To help rationalize why, lets take a look at UND’s current PWR comparisons. The Sioux lose to Alaska 1-2 based on an RPI difference of just .0001; a Northern Michigan sweep almost certainly flips that comparison, explaining most of the jump. You can dig into the others yourself, or trust the computer and cheer for the Beavers and Huskies 😉

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Michigan Tech

Everything appears to be rolling for North Dakota right now. The Fighting Sioux dominated the visiting Gophers last weekend (winning 6-3 and 6-1), have won eight of their last ten games, and seem to be in the middle of another second-half surge.

In the last ten games, UND has outscored opponents 32-20 and swept Harvard, St. Cloud State, Bemidji State, and Minnesota. The only two losses in that span were by identical 2-1 scores at the Great Lakes Invitational in Detroit. The opponents? Michigan State (6-13-3 overall) and Michigan Tech (5-17-2).

Michigan Tech has struggled this year after posting two reasonably successful seasons in a row. The Huskies have only one conference win and find themselves squarely in last place in the WCHA.

With a sweep this weekend, North Dakota would improve to 10-5-1 in league play and host Denver (11-4-1 WCHA) next weekend in a pivotal series. The Pioneers are idle this weekend. If UND drops a game to MTU, they will find themselves right back in the middle of a muddled race for home ice.

On the Sioux injury front, senior defenseman Joe Finley is regaining his form after missing most of the first half. There was no word this week on the status of forward Evan Trupp, who was speared in Saturday’s contest against Minnesota but did return to the ice. Senior Andrew Kozek suffered an injury this week and did not make the trip to Houghton, Michigan with the team.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: Jamie Russell (6th season at MTU, 60-129-27, .340)
This Season: 5-17-2 Overall, 1-13-2 WCHA (10th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 1.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.04 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 8.5% (12 of 142)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (102 of 128)
Last Season: 14-20-5 Overall, 9-15-4 WCHA (9th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jordan Baker (9-5-14), Freshman F Brett Olson (4-8-12), Junior D Drew Dobson (0-11-11), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (3-3-6)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 119-66-16, .632)
This Season: 13-10-1 Overall, 8-5-1 WCHA (4th)
National Rankings: #17/NR
PairWise Ranking: 18th
Team Offense: 3.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.88 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (32 of 165)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (106 of 126)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (10-8-18), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (8-10-18), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-18-22), Senior F Ryan Martens (9-7-16), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-21-23), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (13-7-1, 2.62 GAA, .908 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 28, 2008 (Detroit, MI). Huskies sophomore forward Jordan Baker scored the game-winner with under six minutes remaining as Michigan Tech defeated North Dakota 2-1 in the consolation game of the Great Lakes Invitational. MTU goaltender Rob Nolan stopped 29 of 30 UND shots in the victory.

Last Meeting in Houghton: October 27, 2007. UND winger T.J. Oshie netted a hat trick and joined the Fighting Sioux century club (100 career points) as North Dakota blanked the homestanding Huskies, 6-0. MTU won Friday’s series opener, 3-1.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 133-90-8 (.593), but North Dakota holds only a slight edge (56-55-4) on Michigan Tech‘s home ice. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

Michigan Tech has been outscored 25-6 in the first period this season. Four of the Huskies five wins this season have been by one goal. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 21 consecutive games (including twnety starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 21st on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 151 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with three more points this season. North Dakota won five of the seven meetings between the teams last year, including two of three in a WCHA First Round playoff series in Grand Forks.

The Prediction

If North Dakota scores early, the Fighting Sioux should score often. Michigan Tech needs to protect a lead to be successful. Look for UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness to pick up his first career shutout this weekend. UND 2-1, 2-0.

A look into the future… UND’s PWR after the Michigan Tech series

Did you know that the PWR table shows you the movement since last week? The little arrow (green, pointing up next to UND) shows you the direction of the move, and the text shows the magnitude. UND climbed 6 spots, from 23 to 17, by sweeping the Gophers.

pwr20090112

Wow, who saw that coming? That gave me an idea that I think might be the first really good use of the PWR Predictor. A question I’m certainly asking myself now, and I’m sure I’m not alone, is:

What will UND’s PWR be next Tuesday if UND sweeps Tech? What if Tech sweeps the Sioux?

Well, here we go…

Probability of UND’s PWR as of Jan. 20, based on how it performs vs. Michigan Tech:

20090119

UND’s current PWR is 17

Here’s what the chart is telling you UND’s PWR will be:

  • UND sweeps: 68% chance it’s between 15 and 17, about a 4% chance its 13 or higher, about a 4% chance it’s 19 or lower
  • Split: 75% chance it’s between 19 and 22, about a 1% chance its 16 or higher, about a 2% chance it’s 2 or lower
  • Tech sweeps: 50% chance UND falls out of being a TUC, 42% chance it’s between 22 and 25

Future directions

I think the chart above is a good one that is easily understood and conveys interesting information. It (or a refinement of it) is likely to be the first one that I turn into a real product — a web page that automatically updates that anyone can visit to find out this sort of information each week.

Obviously, it would be nice to be able to drill in and find out what else could happen around the league to influence where UND falls in those distributions. E.g., what else has to happen, combined with a UND sweep, for UND to jump to 9th (or fall to 23rd) in the PWR. Figuring out how to make that information accessible to interested parties is definitely something I’ll also add to the to-do list for future features of this product.

I’m still running lots of simulations and making charts, trying to find useful simulations and ways to present the results.

Background

Those wondering where these predictions come from, or interested in other presentations of PWR prediction data, should read the previous blog posts in which I introduced the PWR Predictor:

Saturday Game React: UND vs. Minnesota

North Dakota appears to have found the recipe for success after sweeping the Minnesota Golden Gophers this weekend in Grand Forks. For the second night in a row, the Fighting Sioux played a smart, physical game and got contributions from all four lines. Freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness made some key saves early, and UND chased sophomore Alex Kangas from the net for the second straight night.

Early on, Minnesota played with much more intensity than they had on Friday night. Despite an early Sioux goal by Chris Vandevelde, the Gophers were very much in the hockey game. Eidsness made a couple of key saves to keep Minnesota off the scoreboard, and on the ensuing rush, Duncan scored a fairly soft goal off of Kangas’ glove.

It’s easy to overlook goaltending in a twelve goal weekend, but Eidsness maintained his focus throughout the weekend and is a key reason the Fighting Sioux are poised for another second-half run. The freshman has been in net for all 13 of UND’s victories, and his numbers since becoming the full-time starter are even more impressive. Since replacing Aaron Walksi midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, Eidsness is 10-4-1 with a 2.27 goals against average and a .918 save percentage. Three of his four losses have come by a score of 2-1.

On the other hand, Alex Kangas came into the weekend as the best goaltender in WCHA play. Overall, his record stood at 10-3-5 with a goals-against average of 2.19 and a save percentage of .921. The Fighting Sioux torched the sophomore for 11 goals and raised his GAA to 2.59. For the weekend, Kangas stopped 49 of 60 North Dakota shots he faced.

Looking back on Saturday’s game, it’s difficult to remember that this game was still 2-0 midway through the second period. Andrew Kozek scored a huge third goal with under nine minutes to play in the middle frame, and the rout was on. Within four minutes of Kozek’s goal, freshmen Jason Gregoire and David Toews scored to put the game out of reach and chase Kangas for the second straight night.

Freshmen Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall were factors all weekend long, playing as wings with Ryan Duncan at center. The two combined for three goals and four assists in the weekend sweep.

UND senior defenseman Joe Finley played his best series since returning from injury. Finley was a force in front of the net and moved the puck effectively while paired with Chay Genoway on the number-one unit.

A key theme all weekend was North Dakota momentum. The Fighting Sioux sustained pressure, had an answer for every Minnesota goal, and never trailed in either game. It was impressive that UND was able to roll all four lines and attack consistently.

In the national picture, UND is still on the outside looking in (#18 in the pairwise), but they are in a much better position than they were two days ago. In the WCHA, the Fighting Sioux are now tied with Minnesota for 4th place in the league, but have played two fewer games than the three teams above them in the standings.

UND travels to Houghton, Michigan for a two-game WCHA series with the Michigan Tech Huskies, a team which defeated the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in the consolation game at the Great Lakes Invitational.